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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benders Decomposition Using Graph Modeling and Multi-Parametric Programming

Benders decomposition is a widely used method for solving large and structured optimization problems, but its performance is affected by the repeated solution of subproblems. We propose a flexible and modular algorithmic framework for accelerating Benders decomposition. Specifically, we express the problem structure by using a graph-theoretic modeling abstraction in which nodes represent optimization subproblems and edges represent connectivity between subproblems. A key innovation of our approach is that we embed multiparametric programming (mp) surrogates for node subproblems, which maps the exact analytical map of the subproblem solution space. The use of mp surrogates allows us to replace subproblem solves with fast look-ups and function evaluations for primal and dual variables during the iterative Benders process. We formally show the equivalence between classical Benders cuts and those derived from the mp solution. We implement our framework in the open-source PlasmoBenders.jl software package. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework, we apply it to a two-stage stochastic programming problem, which aims to make optimal capacity expansion decisions under market uncertainty. We evaluate both single-cut and multicut variants of Benders decomposition and show that the use of mp surrogates achieves substantial speedups in subproblem solve time, while preserving the convergence guarantees of Benders decomposition. We highlight advantages in solution analysis and interpretability that is enabled by mp critical region tracking; specifically, we show that these reveal how decisions evolve geometrically across the Benders search. Our results aim to demonstrate that combining surrogate modeling with graph modeling offers a promising and extensible foundation for structure-exploiting decomposition. In addition, by decomposing the problem into more tractable subproblems, the proposed approach also aims to overcome scalability issues of mp. Finally, the use of mp surrogates provides a unifying and modular optimization framework that enables the representation of heterogeneous node subproblems as modeling objects with a homogeneous structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Out-of-distribution detection with non-parametric density estimation for models predicting processing history of uranium ore concentrates

The rapid advancement in machine learning (ML) and computer vision (CV) coincides with the growth of interest in deploying these ML/CV models in numerous fields from medicine to social science. Similar to those areas, we have witnessed a great number of works in materials science employing ML/CV models – neural networks in particular – in their studies in recent years. These models have proven to obtain accurate performance in various tasks. However, these models struggle to attain a similar performance when encountering test samples coming from a distribution that is different from the training set. More importantly, they fail without providing any warning to the users. Therefore, we propose a framework for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples to alert users when a human intervention might be necessary in this work. Specifically, we explore the use of a non-parametric density estimation method to detect OOD samples. Here, we assess OOD detection capability of the proposed framework on ML models developed for categorizing precipitation routes of U 3 O 8 when encountering OOD datasets that contain samples (1) undergone different imaging acquisition process, (2) undergone different material synthesis process, and (3) different materials than ID set. Through those experiments, we achieve an average area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of at least 91% on average in detecting OOD samples. With minimal overhead cost and superior performance, the proposed framework enables a reliable and safe system when deploying in real-world scenarios.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 power spectrum foreground model and validation

We discuss the model of astrophysical emission at millimeter wavelengths used to characterize foregrounds in the multi-frequency power spectra of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6), expanding on Louis et al. (2025) (2503.14452). We detail several tests to validate the capability of the DR6 parametric foreground model to describe current observations and complex simulations, and show that cosmological parameter constraints are robust against model extensions and variations. We demonstrate consistency of the model with pre-DR6 ACT data and observations from Planck and the South Pole Telescope. We evaluate the implications of using different foreground templates and extending the model with new components and/or free parameters. In all scenarios, the DR6 ΛCDM and ΛCDM+N eff cosmological parameters shift by less than 0.5σ relative to the baseline constraints. Some foreground parameters shift more; we estimate their systematic uncertainties associated with modeling choices. From our constraint on the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich power, we obtain a conservative limit on the duration of reionization of Δz rei < 4.4, assuming a reionization midpoint consistent with optical depth measurements and a minimal low-redshift contribution, with varying assumptions for this component leading to tighter limits. Finally, we analyze realistic non-Gaussian, correlated microwave sky simulations containing Galactic and extragalactic foreground fields, built independently of the DR6 parametric foreground model. Processing these simulations through the DR6 power spectrum and likelihood pipeline, we recover the input cosmological parameters of the underlying cosmic microwave background field, a new demonstration for small-scale CMB analysis. These tests validate the robustness of the ACT DR6 foreground model and cosmological parameter constraints.

CMBR experiments↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonparametric Method for the Inference of Halo Occupation Distributions

The galaxy–halo connection traces processes by which galaxies form and evolve. The halo occupation distribution (HOD) describes the relationship between galaxies and their host dark matter haloes. Measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function (2PCF) allow us to extract information about the HODs of observed galaxy samples. Several parametric HOD models have been proposed in the literature, but the choice of parameterization restricts the space of possible HODs. To resolve this issue, we introduce a nonparametric HOD fitting method in which we train an emulator to learn the mappings among the galaxy 2PCF, physical properties used to select galaxy samples, and the HOD, all obtained from simulated past light cones constructed with the Santa Cruz semianalytic model. Implementing this emulator within a likelihood analysis framework, we derive constraints on the HOD of a galaxy sample when provided with a measurement of its 2PCF. Using the emulator to accelerate likelihood evaluations, we test the nonparametric HOD approach on a set of 2PCFs for mock galaxy samples drawn from the TNG100-1 simulation and selected above threshold values of stellar mass and star formation rate. Our framework is able to recover TNG100-1 HODs within 0.2 dex. We use the TNG100-1 mocks to tune the reported uncertainties to estimate those expected in the analysis of observations. Comparing to parametric HOD modelling routines applied to the same mock galaxy samples, our approach consistently infers the HOD with comparable or greater precision and accuracy.

Kennedy, Jacob [Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-autoregressive time-series methods for stable parametric reduced-order models

Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant interest in the use of techniques borrowed from machine learning to reduce the computational expense and/or improve the accuracy of predictions for these systems. These rely on the identification of a basis that reduces the dimensionality of the problem and the subsequent use of time series and sequential learning methods to forecast the evolution of the reduced state. Often, however, machine-learned predictions after reduced-basis projection are plagued by issues of stability stemming from incomplete capture of multiscale processes as well as due to error growth for long forecast durations. To address these issues, we have developed a non-autoregressive time series approach for predicting linear reduced-basis time histories of forward models. In particular, we demonstrate that non-autoregressive counterparts of sequential learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) considerably improve the stability of machine-learned reduced-order models. Further, we evaluate our approach on the inviscid shallow water equations and show that a non-autoregressive variant of the standard LSTM approach that is bidirectional in the principal component directions obtains the best accuracy for recreating the nonlinear dynamics of partial observations. Moreover-and critical for many applications of these surrogates-inference times are reduced by three orders of magnitude using our approach, compared with both the equation-based Galerkin projection method and the standard LSTM approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Parametric Reduced-Order Model for Inverter Short-Circuit Response in Protection Studies

This paper presents a reduced-order model (ROM) for grid-following (GFL) inverters that reproduces inverter fault current trajectories, including sub transients, transient, and steady-state phases, across a range of fault types, locations, and pre-fault operating points. . The proposed model is developed by: Constructing the positive- and negative-sequence current with parameterization fitted by large data training and fitting Validating using EMT simulation against EMT full model and demonstrating the ROM's capability to capture fault current magnitude, phase angle, and oscillatory transients. Building a standard EMT simulation platform library component for easy configuration and application.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling type 1 quasar colours in the era of Rubin and Euclid

We construct a parametric SED model which is able to reproduce the average observed SDSS–UKIDSS–WISE quasar colours to within one-tenth of a magnitude across a wide range of redshift (0 < z < 5) and luminosity (–22 > M i > –29). This model is shown to provide accurate predictions for the colours of known quasars which are less luminous than those used to calibrate the model parameters, and also those at higher redshifts z > 5. Using a single parameter, the model encapsulates an up-to-date understanding of the intra-population variance in the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical emission lines of luminous quasars. At fixed redshift, there are systematic changes in the average quasar colours with apparent i-band magnitude, which we find to be well explained by the contribution from the host galaxy and our parametrization of the emission-line properties. By including redshift as an additional free parameter, the model could be used to provide photometric redshifts for individual objects. For the population as a whole we find that the average emission line and host-galaxy contributions can be well described by simple functions of luminosity which account for the observed changes in the average quasar colours across 18.1 < i AB < 21.5. Finally, we use these trends to provide predictions for quasar colours at the luminosities and redshifts which will be probed by the Rubin Observatory LSST and ESA-Euclid wide survey. The model code is applicable to a wide range of upcoming photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and is made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining Hamiltonians from chiral effective field theory with neutron-star data

Multi-messenger observations of neutron stars (NSs) and their mergers have placed strong constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). The EOS, in turn, depends on microscopic nuclear interactions that are described by nuclear Hamiltonians. These Hamiltonians are commonly derived within chiral effective field theory (EFT). Ideally, multi-messenger observations of NSs could be used to directly inform our understanding of EFT interactions, but such a direct inference necessitates millions of model evaluations. This is computationally prohibitive because each evaluation requires us to calculate the EOS from a Hamiltonian by solving the quantum many-body problem with methods such as auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo (AFDMC), which provides very accurate and precise solutions but at a significant computational cost. Additionally, we need to solve the stellar structure equations for each EOS which further slows down each model evaluation by a few seconds. In this work, we combine emulators for AFDMC calculations of neutron matter, built using parametric matrix models, and for the stellar structure equations, built using multilayer perceptron neural networks, with the PyCBC data-analysis framework to enable a direct inference of coupling constants in an EFT Hamiltonian using multi-messenger observations of NSs. We find that astrophysical data can provide informative constraints on two-nucleon couplings despite the high densities probed in NS interiors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Quantification and Error Propagation in the Enthalpy and Entropy of Surface Reactions Arising from a Single DFT Functional

Accounting for parametric uncertainty in models is essential for quantifying the models’ predictive ability. Recently, approaches have been introduced to estimate parametric uncertainty in kinetic models while accounting for correlations among energy parameters. However, correlations have been estimated indirectly and correlations in entropies have not been accounted for. For surface-catalyzed microkinetic models of >C2 (more than two carbon-containing) molecules, which consist of thousands of reaction steps and intermediate surface species, first-principles density functional theory (DFT) is costly, and thus, estimation of thermochemistry and reaction barriers requires surrogate methods of DFT, such as group additivity and Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relationships, respectively. For such parametrization, model uncertainty is unclear. This work develops a framework to overcome these gaps using group additivity and a single DFT functional. We estimate correlations in parameters of kinetic models and quantify uncertainty for thermochemistry, reaction barriers, reaction paths, and ultimately reaction rates, accounting also for the contribution of entropic uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach is illustrated on propane combustion and ethane oxidative dehydrogenation reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying modeling uncertainty in simplified beam models for building response prediction

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian calibration method wherein the modeling error is embedded into the parameters of the model. Here, the method is specifically described for coupled shear-flexural beam models here, but it can be applied to any parametric surrogate model. The major benefit the method offers is the ability to consider the modeling uncertainty in the forward prediction of any degree-of-freedom or composite response regardless of the data used in calibration. The method is extensively verified using two synthetic examples. In the first example, the beam model is calibrated to represent a similar beam model but with enforced modeling errors. In the second example, the beam model is used to represent the detailed finite element model of a 52-story building. Both examples show the capability of the proposed solution to provide realistic uncertainty estimation around the mean prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Efficient Reactive Force Field without Explicit Coordination Dependence for Studying Caustic Aluminum Chemistry

Reactive force fields (RFFs) are an expedient approach to sample chemical reaction paths in complex systems, relative to density functional theory. However, there is continued need to improve efficiencies, specifically in systems that have slow transverse degrees of freedom, as in highly viscous and superconcentrated solutions. Here, we present an RFF that is differentiated from current models (e.g., ReaxFF) by omitting explicit dependence on the atom coordination and employing a small parameter set based on Lennard-Jones, Gaussian, and Stillinger–Weber potentials. In this study, the model was parametrized from AIMD simulation data and is used to model aluminate reactivity in sodium hydroxide solutions with extensive validation against experimental radial distribution functions, computed free energy profiles for oligomerization, and formation energies. In conclusion, the model enables simulation of early stage Al(OH) 3 nucleation which has significant relevance to industrial processing of aluminum and has a computational cost that is reduced by 1 order of magnitude relative to ReaxFF.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructure-dependent rate theory model of defect segregation and phase stability in irradiated polycrystalline LiAlO 2

We report gamma lithium aluminate (LiAlO 2 ) is a breeder material for tritium and is one of key components in a tritium-producing burnable absorber rod (TPBAR). Dissolution and precipitation of second phases such as LiAl 5 O 8 and voids are observed in irradiated LiAlO 2 . Such microstructure changes cause the degradation of thermomechanical properties of LiAlO 2 and affect tritium retention and release kinetics, and hence, the TPBAR performance. In this work, a microstructure-dependent model of radiation-induced segregation (RIS) has been developed for investigating the accumulation of species and phase stability in polycrystalline LiAlO 2 structures under irradiation. Three sublattices (i.e. [Li, Al, V] I [O, V o ] II [Li i , Al i , O i , V i ] III ), and concentrations of six diffusive species (i.e. Li; vacancy of Li or Al at [Li, Al, V] I sublattice, O vacancy at [O, V o ] II sublattice, and Li, Al and O interstitials at [Li i , Al i , O i , V i ] III interstitial sublattices; are used to describe spatial and temporal distributions of defects and chemistry. Microstructure-dependent thermodynamic and kinetic properties including the generation, reaction, and chemical potentials of defects and defect mobility are taken into account in the model. The parametric studies demonstrated the capability of the developed RIS model to assess the effect of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of defects on the segregation and depletion of species in polycrystalline structures and to explain the phase stability observed in irradiated LiAlO 2 samples. The developed RIS model will be extended to study the precipitation of LiAl 5 O 8 and voids and tritium retention by integrating the phase-field method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient behavior of drift and ionization in atmospheric pressure nitrogen discharge

The fluid models are frequently used to describe a non-thermal plasma such as a streamer discharge. The required electron transport data and rate coefficients for the fluid model are parametrized using the local field approximation (LFA) in first order models and the local-mean-energy approximation (LMEA) in second order models. We performed Monte Carlo simulations in Nitrogen gas with step changes in the E/N (reduced electric field) to study the behavior of the transport properties in the transient phase. During the transient phase of the simulation, we extract the instantaneous electron mean energy, which is different from the steady state mean electron energy, and the corresponding transport parameters and rate coefficients. Our results indicate that the mean electron energy is not a suitable parameter for mobility/drift of electrons due to big difference in momentum relaxation and energy relaxation. Furthermore, the high energy threshold rates such as ionization show a strong correlation to mean electron energy. In second order models where the energy-balance equation is solved, we suggest that it would rather be appropriate to use the local electric field to find electron drift velocity in gases such as Nitrogen and the local mean electron energy to determine the ionization and excitation rates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗