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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Momentum Management Strategies for Solar Cruiser and Beyond (ISSS 2023)

Solar Cruiser is a small (ESPA-class) satellite Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) to mature solar sail propulsion technology using a solar sail larger than 1600 square meters, demonstrating performance both as a propulsion system and a stable pointing platform for science observations in an artificial halo orbit sunward of the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point 1 (sub-L1). To ensure attitude control throughout the mission, momentum accumulated on the reaction wheels (RWs) used for attitude control must be managed such that the sailcraft does not lose control due to RW momentum saturation. Momentum builds up on the wheels from environmental disturbance torques caused by solar radiation pressure combined with a center of mass (CM)/center of pressure (CP) offset, deformed sail shape, and an off-sun pointing angle, plus other factors. Solar Cruiser mitigates this momentum build up by utilizing an Active Mass Translator (AMT) that maintains pitch and yaw momentum by trimming the CM/CP offsets, and thrusters to maintain roll momentum. A survey was conducted by the Solar Cruiser team to assess the feasibility and tradeoffs of novel momentum management concepts such as Reflectivity Control Devices (RCD’s), different thruster configurations, and control vanes and other articulated control surfaces. In addition, techniques to reduce disturbance torque buildup, such as reducing boom tip deflections and clock angle control, were assessed. Similar sailcraft momentum management strategies can be used for future missions such as space weather monitoring and Earth magnetotail science missions

Solar Sail↗

NASA NTRS1987

Numerical study of laminar and turbulent flows inside a turnaround duct with and without guide vanes

The purpose of this study is to examine in detail incompressible laminar and turbulent flows inside a turnaround duct with and without guide vanes and to investigate the effects of vanes on the flow characteristics. To perform this study, an implicit finite difference code cast in general curvilinear coordinates is further developed. The code is based on the method of pseudo-compressibility and utilize ADI or implicit approximate factorization algorithm to achieve computational efficiency. Method of segmental sweeping is developed to overcome the multiple-zone problem due to imposition of guide vanes. In the present study, several test cases have been computed. These test cases include laminar and turbulent flows inside a turnaround duct without and with two or three guide vanes. The study reveals that: (1) there exists large recirculation zones inside the duct if no vanes are present; (2) properly shaped and positional guide vanes are effective in eliminating flow separation; and (3) laminar and turbulent flows have similar flow features. But turbulent flow has less total pressure drop.

Lin, S.-J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-modeled LES of Flow Over a Gaussian Bump

We perform wall-modeled large eddy simulations (WMLES) of turbulent flow over a Gaussian-shaped bump geometry, to assess its performance in the acceleration and separation regions of the flow. An unstructured finite-volume solver is used along with an equilibrium wall model. The Mach number of the oncoming flow selected for the simulation is 0.176, and two Reynolds numbers (Re) are simulated that are about 10000 and 36000 based on boundary layer thickness upstream of the bump. Spanwise periodic results for the lower Re case are compared with the available DNS data, while the full three-dimensional simulation results for the higher Re case are compared to available experimental data. Sensitivity of WMLES results are assessed for a number of factors including grid resolution, wall model exchange location, type of wall model, and unstructured grid topology. The WMLES results for the lower Re case agree well with available DNS data in terms of the wall pressure variation, velocity and turbulent stress profile comparisons. The skin-friction predictions show a reduced tendency to separate. This appears to be accentuated for the higher Re case, for the medium resolution grid used in this study, where WMLES does not predict any flow separation in the mean, which is in contrast to the large separation bubble observed in the experiments.

turbulence↗

NASA NTRS2005

XMM TOO Observation

The primary research goal of this project is to perform follow-up observations of a recurrent ultraluminous supersoft X-ray source (SSS) in Ml0l. The source was first discovered by ROSAT and was confirmed as a SSS with a blackbody temperature of about l00eV by Chandra. During 2000 March, Chandra detected it at Lx=4e39 erg per second, and then in 2000 October, its luminosity dropped to around le39 erg per second. During 2004, Chandra is conducting a monitoring program for Ml0l. The SSS was near the detection limit during January, March, and May; the X-ray spectra were harder with a power-law shape, and the X-ray luminosity was about 3e37 erg/second, a factor of greater than 200 fainter than that in the previous high state. The source was found to be in outburst again during the July 5 observation, with an X-ray luminosity of about 7e39 erg/second. Data taken on July 6,7, and 8 show that the source was in a strong outburst with a peak bolometric luminosity of about 7e39 erg/second. In general, the X-ray spectra are best described with an absorbed blackbody model with temperatures of approximately 50-100eV. In addition, we found absorption edges at 0.33, 0.57, 0.66, and 0.88 keV in two of the high state spectra. These features may signal the presence of highly ionized gas in the vicinity of the accretor (e.g., warm absorber). In order to study an ultraluminous SSS in outburst in detail, we proposed a TOO XMM observation to observe the source. The observation was taken on July 23 and the source was fainter with a luminosity of 6e38 ergs, and a harder X-ray spectrum with a power-law tail seen up to 7 keV. This clearly indicates that the source was in the decline stage with spectral change. In addition to the XMM observation, we also arranged radio observation and a simultaneous CFHT observation. The X-ray results were published in ATel and ApJL. There were several more Chandra observations taken after 2004 July. The source was in a low luminosity state but it underwent another X-ray outburst in 2004 December. We are arranging more follow-up observations for this intriguing source.

Kong, Albert↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-modeled LES of the Three-dimensional Speed Bump Experiment

We evaluate the performance of wall-modeled large eddy simulation (WMLES) in predicting smooth-body turbulent flow separation for a three-dimensional Gaussian-shaped speed bump geometry. The Reynolds number based on the bump length is 2 million, and an unstructured compressible finite-volume solver is used with an equilibrium wall model and dynamic subgrid scale model. Spanwise periodic simulations of the centerline two-dimensional bump were used to assess grid resolution requirements, and resolving the thin internal layer in the accelerating region was found to be necessary to correctly capture the downstream separated flow region. Based on these insights, an optimized grid that was smaller by a factor of two provided comparable accuracy to a finer grid that has been used by us and other researchers in past studies. Using insights gained from the spanwise periodic simulation, an unstructured polyhderal grid with about 250 million cells was used for the three-dimensional (3D) configuration with inviscid tunnel side and top walls. Detailed comparisons of wall skin-friction coefficient, wall pressure, velocity and turbulent stresses with available experimental data indicated excellent agreement. While the low-Reynolds Number Spalart-Allmaras RANS model with rotation/curvature correction gave qualitatively good agreement with experiments, WMLES showed significantly more accurate quantitative predictions of the flowfield. The 3D WMLES showed good agreement with experiments in the separated region, and the centerplane results indicated a different separation topology compared to the spanwise periodic simulation.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2001

Shape Optimization of Supersonic Turbines Using Response Surface and Neural Network Methods

Turbine performance directly affects engine specific impulse, thrust-to-weight ratio, and cost in a rocket propulsion system. A global optimization framework combining the radial basis neural network (RBNN) and the polynomial-based response surface method (RSM) is constructed for shape optimization of a supersonic turbine. Based on the optimized preliminary design, shape optimization is performed for the first vane and blade of a 2-stage supersonic turbine, involving O(10) design variables. The design of experiment approach is adopted to reduce the data size needed by the optimization task. It is demonstrated that a major merit of the global optimization approach is that it enables one to adaptively revise the design space to perform multiple optimization cycles. This benefit is realized when an optimal design approaches the boundary of a pre-defined design space. Furthermore, by inspecting the influence of each design variable, one can also gain insight into the existence of multiple design choices and select the optimum design based on other factors such as stress and materials considerations.

Papila, Nilay↗

NASA NTRS2015

Aerodynamic Shape Optimization Benchmarks with Error Control and Automatic Parameterization

Results are presented for four optimization benchmark problems posed by the AIAA Aerodynamic Design Optimization Discussion Group. The benchmarks are intended to exercise optimization frameworks on representative airfoil and wing design problems. All problems involve drag minimization subject to geometric and aerodynamic constraints. Our design approach involves two forms of adaptation. First, the shape parameterization is gradually and automatically enriched from an initially coarse search space. Second, adjoint solutions are used to drive adaptive mesh refinement to control discretization error. The error threshold is tailored so that the nest meshes, with the greatest accuracy, are used only when nearing the optimum. On the inviscid airfoil design problem, while reducing the drag by a factor of 10, we show how the combination of progressive parameterization and tiered discretization error control can dramatically accelerate the optimization. On the viscous airfoil design problem, we use inviscid analysis-driven optimization to reduce the total drag by a factor of two. Next, we improve the span efficiency factor of a wing by performing twist optimization. Finally, we optimize the Common Research Model wing, managing to hold drag roughly fixed, while targeting an initially-violated pitching moment constraint. Our approach aims to introduce greater complexity and accuracy only when necessary to improve the design, and also support a greater degree of automation.

Anderson, George R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

X-Ray Diffraction Based Phase Identification in NiTiHf Shape Memory Alloys with Variable Hf Content

NiTiHf type shape memory alloys have been studied for use in high temperature actuator applications, the most studied of which is the NiTi-20Hf atomic % composition. In this study, six samples of NiTi-Hf including 20Hf, 30Hf, 35Hf, 40Hf, 45Hf, and 50Hf were evaluated by both 1D and 2D X-ray diffraction (XRD) to elucidate what phases and crystal structures were present at room temperature. Given small sample sizes and relatively large grains, multiple cross-sections were measured to increase the sampling statistics, and 2D XRD frames were collected to corroborate the 1D XRD data. Rietveld and structureless refinements were both performed, allowing for adjustments in orientation lattice constant, and structure factor. At room temperature, the primary martensitic phase in the NiTiHf alloys with 20 at% and lower Hf is a monoclinic B19’ phase (P1121/m space group). This phase was identifiable, even in small amounts, in the higher Hf samples. The primary phase in the 30 -50 at% Hf samples is an orthorhombic B33 (Cmcm space group) phase. This work supported thermal analyses indicating the phase transition paths from the two different room temperature martensitic phases to the B2 austenitic phase.

Laura Wilson↗

NASA NTRS1991

Effect of patch borders on coercivity in amorphous rare earth-transition metal thin films

The coercivity at the micron scale is a very important property of magneto-optical media. It is a key factor that determines the magnetic domain wall movement and domain reversal. How the coercivity is influenced by a special type of patch borders is discussed. Patch formation is a general phenomenon in growth processes of amorphous rare earth transition metal thin films. Different patches may stem from different seeds and the patch borders are formed when they merge. Though little is known about the exact properties of the borders, we may expect that the exchange interaction at the patch border is weaker than that within a patch, since there is usually a spatial gap between two patches. Computer simulations were performed on a 2-D hexagonal lattice consisting of 37 complete patches with random shape and size. From the series of simulations we may conclude that the domain in the patch with borders of 30 percent exchange strength can expand most easily to the whole lattice, because the exchange strength can expand most easily to the whole lattice, because the exchange strength of the border is not too high to prevent the domain from growing within the patch and it is not too low to prevent the domain from expanding beyond the patch.

Patterson, G.↗

NASA NTRS1998

3-D Modeling of Directional Solidification of a Non-Dilute Alloy with Temperature and Concentration Fields Coupling via Materials Properties Dependence and via Double Diffusive Convection

Numerical simulation of the HgCdTe growth by the vertical Bridgman method was performed using FIDAP finite element code. Double-diffusive melt convection is analyzed, as the primary factor at controls inhomogeneity of the solidified material. Temperature and concentration fields in the model are also coupled via material properties, such as thermal and solutal expansion coefficients with the dependence on both temperature and concentration, and melting temperature evaluation from pseudobinary CdTe-HgTe phase diagram. Experimental measurements were used to obtain temperature boundary conditions. Parametric study of the melt convection dependence on the gravity conditions was undertaken. It was found, that the maximum convection velocity in the melt can be reduced under certain conditions. Optimal conditions to obtain a near flat solidified interface are discussed. The predicted interface shape is in agreement with one obtained experimentally by quenching. The results of 3-D calculations are compared with previous 2- D findings. A video film featuring 3-D melt convection will be presented.

Bune, Andris V.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Propagation velocities of laser-produced plasmas from copper wire targets and water droplets

Experiments were performed to determine the plasma propagation velocities resulting from KrF laser irradiation of copper wire target (75 microns diameter) and water droplets (75 microns diameter) at irradiance levels ranging from 25 to 150 GW/sq cm. Plasma propagation velocities were measured using a streak camera system oriented orthogonally to the high-energy laser propagation axis. Plasma velocities were studied as a function of position in the focused beam. Results show that both the shape of the plasma formation and material removal from the copper wire are different and depend on whether the targets are focused or slightly defocused (approximately = 0.5 mm movement in the beam axis). Plasma formation and its position relative to the target is an important factor in determining the practical focal point during high-energy laser interaction with materials. At irradiance of 100 GW/sq cm, the air plasma has two weak-velocity components which propagate toward and away from the incident laser while a strong-velocity component propagates away from the laser beam as a detonation wave. Comparison of the measured breakdown velocities (in the range of 2.22-2.27 x 10(exp 5) m/s) for air and the value calculated by the nonlinear breakdown wave theory at irradiance of 100 GW/sq cm showed a quantitative agreement within approximately 50% while the linear theory and Gaussian pulse theory failed. The detonation wave velocities of plasma generated from water droplets and copper wire targets for different focused cases were measured and analyzed theoretically. The propagation velocities of laser-induced plasma liquid droplets obtained by previous research are compared with current work.

Song, Kyo-Dong↗

NASA NTRS2001

Temperature Dependent Modal Test/Analysis Correlation of X-34 Fastrac Composite Rocket Nozzle

A unique high temperature modal test and model correlation/update program has been performed on the composite nozzle of the FASTRAC engine for the NASA X-34 Reusable Launch Vehicle. The program was required to provide an accurate high temperature model of the nozzle for incorporation into the engine system structural dynamics model for loads calculation; this model is significantly different from the ambient case due to the large decrease in composite stiffness properties due to heating. The high-temperature modal test was performed during a hot-fire test of the nozzle. Previously, a series of high fidelity modal tests and finite element model correlation of the nozzle in a free-free configuration had been performed. This model was then attached to a modal-test verified model of the engine hot-fire test stand and the ambient system mode shapes were identified. A reduced set of accelerometers was then attached to the nozzle, the engine fired full-duration, and the frequency peaks corresponding to the ambient nozzle modes individually isolated and tracked as they decreased during the test. To update the finite-element model of the nozzle to these frequency curves, the percentage differences of the anisotropic composite moduli due to temperature variation from ambient, which had been used in the initial modeling and which were obtained by small sample coupon testing, were multiplied by an iteratively determined constant factor. These new properties were used to create high-temperature nozzle models corresponding to 10 second engine operation increments and tied into the engine system model for loads determination.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2010

Topics covered include: Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets; Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets; Reducing the Volume of NASA Earth-Science Data; Reception of Multiple Telemetry Signals via One Dish Antenna; Space-Qualified Traveling-Wave Tube; Smart Power Supply for Battery-Powered Systems; Parallel Processing of Broad-Band PPM Signals; Inexpensive Implementation of Many Strain Gauges; Constant-Differential-Pressure Two-Fluid Accumulator; Inflatable Tubular Structures Rigidized with Foams; Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules; Mechanical Extraction of Power From Ocean Currents and Tides; Nitrous Oxide/Paraffin Hybrid Rocket Engines; Optimized Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Fluorinated Ester Co-Solvents; Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior; Foldable Instrumented Bits for Ultrasonic/Sonic Penetrators; Compact Rare Earth Emitter Hollow Cathode; High-Precision Shape Control of In-Space Deployable Large Membrane/Thin-Shell Reflectors; Rapid Active Sampling Package; Miniature Lightweight Ion Pump; Cryogenic Transport of High-Pressure-System Recharge Gas; Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude; Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes; Wide-Field-of-View, High-Resolution, Stereoscopic Imager; Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography with High-Contrast Dielectrics; Wavefront Control and Image Restoration with Less Computing; Polarization Imaging Apparatus; Stereoscopic Machine-Vision System Using Projected Circles; Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool; Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes; Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System; Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition; Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery; Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order; Algorithm for Stabilizing a POD-Based Dynamical System; Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams; Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 3; Web-Based Requesting and Scheduling Use of Facilities; AutoGen Version 5.0; Time-Tag Generation Script; PPM Receiver Implemented in Software; Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Product File Readers; Reporting Differences Between Spacecraft Sequence Files; Coordinating "Execute" Data for ISS and Space Shuttle; Database for Safety-Oriented Tracking of Chemicals; Apparatus for Cold, Pressurized Biogeochemical Experiments; Growing B Lymphocytes in a Three-Dimensional Culture System; Tissue-like 3D Assemblies of Human Broncho-Epithelial Cells; Isolation of Resistance-Bearing Microorganisms; Oscillating Cell Culture Bioreactor; and Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Structural Definition and Mass Estimation of Lunar Surface Habitats for the Lunar Architecture Team Phase 2 (LAT-2) Study

The Lunar Architecture Team Phase 2 study defined and assessed architecture options for a Lunar Outpost at the Moon's South Pole. The Habitation Focus Element Team was responsible for developing concepts for all of the Habitats and pressurized logistics modules particular to each of the architectures, and defined the shapes, volumes and internal layouts considering human factors, surface operations and safety requirements, as well as Lander mass and volume constraints. The Structures Subsystem Team developed structural concepts, sizing estimates and mass estimates for the primary Habitat structure. In these studies, the primary structure was decomposed into a more detailed list of components to be sized to gain greater insight into concept mass contributors. Structural mass estimates were developed that captured the effect of major design parameters such as internal pressure load. Analytical and empirical equations were developed for each structural component identified. Over 20 different hard-shell, hybrid expandable and inflatable soft-shell Habitat and pressurized logistics module concepts were sized and compared to assess structural performance and efficiency during the study. Habitats were developed in three categories; Mini Habs that are removed from the Lander and placed on the Lunar surface, Monolithic habitats that remain on the Lander, and Habitats that are part of the Mobile Lander system. Each category of Habitat resulted in structural concepts with advantages and disadvantages. The same modular shell components could be used for the Mini Hab concept, maximizing commonality and minimizing development costs. Larger Habitats had higher volumetric mass efficiency and floor area than smaller Habitats (whose mass was dominated by fixed items such as domes and frames). Hybrid and pure expandable Habitat structures were very mass-efficient, but the structures technology is less mature, and the ability to efficiently package and deploy internal subsystems remains an open issue.

Dorsey, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Human Response to Simulated Low-Intensity Sonic Booms

NASA's High Speed Research (HSR ) program in the 1990s was intended to develop a technology base for a future High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). As part of this program, the NASA Langley Research Center sonic boom simulator (SBS) was built and used for a series of tests on subjective response to sonic booms. At the end of the HSR program, an HSCT was deemed impractical, but since then interest in supersonic flight has reawakened, this time focusing on a smaller aircraft suitable for a business jet. To respond to this interest, the Langley sonic boom simulator has been refurbished. The upgraded computer-controlled playback system is based on an SGI O2 computer, in place of the previous DEC MicroVAX. As the frequency response of the booth is not flat, an equalization filter is required. Because of the changes made during the renovation (new loudspeakers), the previous equalization filter no longer performed as well as before, so a new equalization filter has been designed. Booms to be presented in the booth are preprocessed using the filter. When the preprocessed signals are presented into the booth and measured with a microphone, the results are very similar to the intended shapes. Signals with short rise times and sharp "corners" are observed to have a small amount of "ringing" in the response. During the HSR program a considerable number of subjective tests were completed in the SBS. A summary of that research is given in Leatherwood et al. (Individual reports are available at http://techreports.larc.nasa.gov/ltrs/ltrs.html.) Topics of study included shaped sonic booms, asymmetrical booms, realistic (recorded) boom waveforms, indoor and outdoor booms shapes, among other factors. One conclusion of that research was that a loudness metric, like the Stevens Perceived Level (PL), predicted human reaction much more accurately than overpressure or unweighted sound pressure level. Structural vibration and rattle were not included in these studies.

Sullivan, Brenda M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Human-Robot Interaction Directed Research Project

Human-robot interaction (HRI) is about understanding and shaping the interactions between humans and robots (Goodrich & Schultz, 2007). It is important to evaluate how the design of interfaces and command modalities affect the human s ability to perform tasks accurately, efficiently, and effectively (Crandall, Goodrich, Olsen Jr., & Nielsen, 2005) It is also critical to evaluate the effects of human-robot interfaces and command modalities on operator mental workload (Sheridan, 1992) and situation awareness (Endsley, Bolt , & Jones, 2003). By understanding the effects of interface design on human performance, workload, and situation awareness, interfaces can be developed that support the human in performing tasks with minimal errors and with appropriate interaction time and effort. Thus, the results of research on human-robot interfaces have direct implications for design. Because the factors associated with interfaces and command modalities in HRI are too numerous to address in 3 years of research, the proposed research concentrates on three manageable areas applicable to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) robot systems. These topic areas emerged from the Fiscal Year (FY) 2011 work that included extensive literature reviews and observations of NASA systems. The three topic areas are: 1) video overlays, 2) camera views, and 3) command modalities. Each area is described in detail below, along with relevance to existing NASA human-robot systems. In addition to studies in these three topic areas, a workshop is proposed for FY12. The workshop will bring together experts in human-robot interaction and robotics to discuss the state of the practice as applicable to research in space robotics. Studies proposed in the area of video overlays consider two factors in the implementation of augmented reality (AR) for operator displays during teleoperation. The first of these factors is the type of navigational guidance provided by AR symbology. In the proposed studies, participants performance during teleoperation of a robot arm will be compared when they are provided with command-guidance symbology (that is, directing the operator what commands to make) or situation-guidance symbology (that is, providing natural cues so that the operator can infer what commands to make). The second factor for AR symbology is the effects of overlays that are either superimposed or integrated into the external view of the world. A study is proposed in which the effects of superimposed and integrated overlays on operator task performance during teleoperated driving tasks are compared

Rochlis, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Virtual Fit Assessment: Validation using Historical Spacesuit Fit Data

Virtual fit tests using 3D body scans have provided a cost-effective means to predictively assess spacesuit fit for the current and future astronaut population. However, fit is a complex issue influenced by physical interferences, subjective preference, and many other factors. Fit can substantially differ between the type of hardware, environmental conditions, and tasks being performed. Namely, fit changes across different contexts, such as 3D printed mockup evaluations, pressurized one-g suited test events, neutral buoyancy and other training events, and flight extravehicular activities (EVA). These challenges make it difficult to validate virtual fit frameworks to physical suit sizing. This study proposes a new method of validation using the wealth of historically archived suit fit data. Physically Assessed Fit (PAF) data was assessed from astronauts and test volunteers who wore the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). The data was collected during the past decades at NASA and considered to be most reliable and dependable. Each participant was 3D scanned for body shape and spacesuit-critical dimensions were measured per NASA guidelines. The participants’ size preference for hard upper torso (HUT) assembly was retrieved from their pressurized suit fit check records. Fit assessments were also updated after one-g EVA training, neutral buoyancy training, and EVA flights. Virtually Assessed Fit (VAF) was done by overlaying the CAD model of a HUT with the 3D body scans of the PAF participants. Each body scan was iteratively adjusted for the position inside the HUT to minimize the suit-to-body contact interference while satisfying a set of prescribed requirements. Then the residual contact area, depth, and volume were quantified as VAF metrics. This process was repeated for the different HUT sizes, including medium, large, and extra-large. Statistical modeling is currently in progress and will be presented at the conference. A statistical classifier will be developed to predict a fit probability for different HUT sizes as a function of the corresponding person’s VAF metrics. The HUT size with the highest fit probability will constitute the most likely size selection for the person, and the prediction will be compared against the corresponding PAF data. The participant data will be randomly pre-grouped into either a model development or validation subset. While the model development subset will be used to build the probability model, the validation subset will be used to assess the model accuracy. Also, the locations and magnitudes of suit-body-contacts will be estimated from VAF. This information can identify the critical suit geometry and body shape features that influence suit fit. The variations found in PAF size selections by subjects with similar VAF metrics will allow for investigations into subjective preferences, for example, tight versus loose fit. Overall, this study is expected to provide a structured validation of a virtual suit fit framework, which has not been possible in the past. The outcome can also provide useful insights and potential limitations for interpreting virtual fit tests for future spacesuit designs and population accommodation.

Han Kim↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗