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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed −1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

Arctic Sea↗
DOE OSTI2023

More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due To Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High‐Resolution Earth System Model

Abstract Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, but the mechanisms by which distributions are influenced by climate change remains unclear. Comparing simulations from a high‐spatial resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR) with those from low‐resolution models, we identify substantial improvements by CESM‐HR in reproducing observed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature skewness, as well as the frequency, intensity, persistence, and total heatwave days. Temperature skewness is strongly linked to land‐atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation. Under global warming projections, some regions exhibit enhanced temperature skewness, along with more frequent and persistent heatwaves of greater intensity. We find that in energy‐limited regimes, such as India, negative skewness in latent heat flux facilitates large positive skewness in sensible heat flux, which modulates near‐surface air temperatures. Skewness differences of latent and sensible heat fluxes are amplified under global warming, increasing the temperature skewness. We find that this contrasting flux mechanism is active in several heatwave‐prone regions.

Gao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for direct slepton production in the compressed-mass corridor in $\sqrt{\textrm{s}}$ = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents searches for the direct pair production of charged light-flavour sleptons, each decaying into a stable neutralino and an associated Standard Model lepton. The analyses focus on the challenging ``corridor'' region, where the mass difference, $Δm$, between the slepton ($\tilde{e}$ or $\tildeμ$) and the lightest neutralino ($\tildeχ^{0}_{1}$) is less or similar to the mass of the $W$ boson, $m(W)$, with the aim to close a persistent gap in sensitivity to models with $Δm \lesssim m(W)$. Events are required to contain a high-energy jet, significant missing transverse momentum, and two same-flavour opposite-sign leptons ($e$ or $μ$). The analysis uses $pp$ collision data at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb$^{-1}$. Several kinematic selections are applied, including a set of boosted decision trees. These are each optimised for different $Δm$ to provide expected sensitivity for the first time across the full $Δm$ corridor. The results are generally consistent with the Standard Model, with the most significant deviations observed with a local significance of 2.0 $σ$ in the selectron search, and 2.4 $σ$ in the smuon search. While these deviations weaken the observed exclusion reach in some parts of the signal parameter space, the previously present sensitivity gap to this corridor is largely reduced. Constraints at the 95% confidence level are set on simplified models of selectron and smuon pair production, where selectrons (smuons) with masses up to 300 (350) GeV can be excluded for $Δm$ between 2 GeV and 100 GeV.

hadron-hadron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Four-Dimensional Carbon Cycle of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle, dominating the oceanic uptake of heat and carbon added by anthropogenic activities and modulating atmospheric carbon concentrations in past, present, and future climates. However, the remote and extreme conditions found there make the Southern Ocean perpetually one of the most difficult places on the planet to observe and to model, resulting in significant and persistent uncertainties in our knowledge of the oceanic carbon cycle there. The flow of carbon in the Southern Ocean is traditionally understood using a zonal mean framework, in which the meridional overturning circulation drives the latitudinal variability observed in both air–sea flux and interior ocean carbon concentration. However, recent advances, based largely on expanded observation and modeling capabilities in the region, reveal the importance of processes acting at smaller scales, including basin-scale zonal asymmetries in mixed-layer depth, mesoscale eddies, and high-frequency atmospheric variability. Assessing the current state of knowledge and remaining gaps emphasizes the need to move beyond the zonal mean picture and embrace a four-dimensional understanding of the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Corrosion of 316 L stainless steel under the natural circulation of molten NaCl-MgCl 2 salt

The corrosion behavior of 316 L stainless steel (SS) was studied via the natural circulation of molten eutectic NaCl-MgCl 2 salt through a microloop. The post-corrosion tested 316 L SS microloop sections were characterized with microscopy techniques to determine the microstructural and microchemical changes that occurred at the alloy/salt interface. It was found that 316 L SS showed heterogeneous dissolution at the hot-leg, whereas deposition of corrosion products occurred at the cold-leg. For the first time, experimentally obtained molten salt flow-induced corrosion of 316 L SS results were combined with computational thermodynamic-kinetic models to validate the dissolution and deposition in terms of elemental compositional changes at the alloy/salt interface. The thermodynamic-kinetic modeling predicted that the heterogeneous dissolution of Cr and Fe from the hot-leg section of 316 L SS persisted throughout the salt circulation. The model also estimated that, despite Cr deposition starting earlier than Fe, the total redeposition of Fe is expected to be significantly greater than that of Cr over the circulation of salt. Furthermore, the modeling accurately predicted the subsurface enrichment of Mo which is attributed to the reduced Cr activity and the relatively higher diffusion rate of Mo within the alloy matrix. Here, the agreement between modeling and experimental results confirms that Fe chlorides dissolve at the hot-leg and subsequently deposit at the cold-leg due to activity changes driven by the thermal gradient. By contrast, Cr was not detected in the cold-leg deposits, which is attributed to its weaker temperature dependence on activity, limiting its redeposition under these conditions.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrocatalytic nitrate reduction on rhodium sulfide compared to Pt and Rh in the presence of chloride

Chloride poisoning is a serious problem for the electrocatalytic reduction of aqueous nitrate (NO 3 – ) and improved electrocatalysts are needed. Here we study the electrocatalytic activity of rhodium sulfide supported on carbon (Rh x S y /C) for the reduction of nitrate and compare it against Pt/C and Rh/C in the presence of chloride. Between 0.05–0.15 V vs. RHE, Rh x S y /C has a steady-state nitrate reduction current density in 1 M H 2 SO 4 + 1 M NaNO 3 that is 1.6–5.6 times greater than Rh/C (the most active metal electrocatalyst) and 10–24 times greater than Pt/C. Current densities are decreased by 37% for Rh x S y /C, 62% for Rh/C, and 40% for Pt/C at 0.1 V vs. RHE in the presence of 1 mM chloride. The decrease in nitrate reduction activity for Pt, Rh, and Rh x S y is due to the competitive adsorption of chloride and nitrate on the surface. Density functional theory (DFT) modeling predicts that chloride poisoning will persistently inhibit nitrate reduction on metals due to linear adsorbate scaling relations between nitrate and chloride. DFT calculations and microkinetic modeling of our experimental measurements predict that nitrate converts to nitrite via an H-assisted dissociation mechanism on Pt and direct nitrate dissociation on Rh and Rh x S y . Pristine Rh x S y (i.e., Rh 3 S 4 , Rh 2 S 3 , and Rh 17 S 15 ) terraces are predicted to be inactive toward nitrate reduction. In contrast, sulfur vacancies in Rh 3 S 4 terraces are predicted to be active for nitrate reduction, but also bind chloride strongly. Furthermore, sulfur-defected Rh 3 S 4 rationalize the experimentally observed high activity but moderate chloride poison-resistance of Rh x S y /C for nitrate reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2026

PAC in DESI. II. Galaxy-halo connection into the $10^{6}{\rm M}_{\odot}$ frontier

Understanding dwarf galaxy formation is crucial for testing dark matter models and reionization physics. However, constructing stellar-mass complete spectroscopic samples at low masses is increasingly difficult, and the potential existence of a local void complicates studies in an average environment. The Photometric object Around Cosmic webs (PAC) method, which combines deep photometric and spectroscopic data to measure the excess surface density $\bar{n}_2w_{\rm{p}}(r_{\rm{p}})$ of photometric objects around spectroscopic tracers, offers a promising path forward. We model 349 $\bar{n}_2w_{\rm{p}}(r_{\rm{p}})$ measurements from DESI Y1 BGS and DECaLS, reaching $M_*=10^{6.4}\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$, using a stellar mass-halo mass relation (SHMR)-based subhalo abundance matching framework applied to two high-resolution $N$-body simulations from the Jiutian suite. The resulting SHMR is constrained down to $M_{\rm h}\simeq10^{8.0}\,h^{-1}{\rm M}_{\odot}$, revealing a clear upturn at $\sim10^{10.0}\,h^{-1}{\rm M}_{\odot}$ toward lower masses, indicating rising star-formation efficiency (SFE) in small haloes. This feature persists under extensions of the model that allow mass-dependent scatter, reionization-induced suppression of the halo occupation fraction, galaxy assembly bias, and alternative cosmologies. Combining with the results from Paper I, we find that central red galaxies dominate the low-mass regime. Our results motivate a hypothesis in which SFE is significantly higher than previously thought prior to reionization, enabling relatively massive galaxies to form in small haloes. These systems are subsequently quenched by the UV background, producing the central red dwarf galaxies observed. Finally, we obtain $3σ$ and $5σ$ upper mass bounds of $10^{8.80}\,h^{-1}{\rm M}_{\odot}$ and $10^{10.24}\,h^{-1}{\rm M}_{\odot}$ on the smallest haloes required to exist.

Xu, Kun [Pennsylvania U.; Durham U., ICC; Tsung-Da↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2022

Persistence of negative vacancy and self-interstitial formation energies in atomistic models of amorphous silicon

We use classical potential atomistic modeling to demonstrate that negative vacancy and selfinterstitial formation energies are inherently present in amorphous silicon (a-Si). Our conclusions are based on comprehensive calculations of vacancy and self-interstitial formation energies in nine different models, ranging in size from 1000 to 2744 atoms and formed by quenching liquid Si at rates between 10 10 and 10 12 K/s. We account for a range of possible reference energies corresponding to different choices of reservoirs for atoms inserted into or removed from our models. Moreover, we show that successive addition of either vacancies or self-interstitials does not deplete the number of negative formation energy sites. Instead, it further lowers defect formation energies. Furthermore, these findings lead us to conclude that a-Si is not a structure at or near a local enthalpy minimum nor can it be brought to a local enthalpy minimum through the introduction of constitutional defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1997

Self-Consistent Thermal Accretion Disk Corona Models for Compact Objects. I: Properties of the Corona and the Spectrum of Escaping Radiation

We present the properties of accretion disk corona (ADC) models in which the radiation field, the temperature, and the total opacity of the corona are determined self-consistently. We use a nonlinear Monte Carlo code to perform the calculations. As an example, we discuss models in which the corona is situated above and below a cold accretion disk with a plane-parallel (slab) geometry, similar to the model of Haardt & Maraschi. By Comptonizing the soft radiation emitted by the accretion disk, the corona is responsible for producing the high-energy component of the escaping radiation. Our models include the reprocessing of radiation in the accretion disk. Here the photons either are Compton-reflected or photoabsorbed, giving rise to fluorescent line emission and thermal emission. The self- consistent coronal temperature is determined by balancing heating (due to viscous energy dissipation) with Compton cooling, determined using the fully relativistic, angle-dependent cross sections. The total opacity is found by balancing pair productions with annihilations. We find that, for a disk temperature kT(sub BB) approx. less than 200 eV, these coronae are unable to have a self-consistent temperature higher than approx. 140 keV if the total optical depth is approx. less than 0.2, regardless of the compactness parameter of the corona and the seed opacity. This limitation corresponds to the angle-averaged spectrum of escaping radiation having a photon index approx. greater than 1.8 within the 5-30 keV band. Finally, all models that have reprocessing features also predict a large thermal excess at lower energies. These constraints make explaining the X-ray spectra of persistent black hole candidates with ADC models very problematic.

Dove, James B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

E3SM‐Arctic: Regionally Refined Coupled Model for Advanced Understanding of Arctic Systems Interactions

Earth system models are essential tools for climate projections, but coarse resolutions limit regional accuracy, especially in the Arctic. Regionally refined meshes (RRMs) enhance resolution in key areas while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper provides an overview of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.1 with an Arctic RRM, hereafter referred to as E3SMv2.1-Arctic, for the atmosphere (25 km), land (25 km), and ocean/ice (10 km) components. We evaluate the atmospheric component and its interactions with land, ocean, and cryosphere by comparing the RRM (E3SM2.1-Arctic) historical simulations (1950–2014) with the uniform low-resolution (LR) counterpart, reanalysis products, and observational data sets. The RRM generally reduces biases in the LR model, improving simulations of Arctic large-scale mean fields, such as precipitation, atmospheric circulation, clouds, atmospheric river frequency, and sea ice thickness. However, it introduces a seasonally dependent surface air temperature bias, reducing the LR cold bias in summer but enhancing the LR warm bias in winter, which contributes to the underestimated winter sea ice area and volume. Radiative feedback analysis shows similar climate feedback strengths in both model configurations, with the RRM exhibiting a more positive surface albedo feedback and contributing to a stronger surface warming than LR. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution modeling for advancing our understanding of Arctic climate changes and their broader global impacts, although some persistent biases appear to be independent of model resolution at 10–100 km scales.

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on Carbon Cycle Processes from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (Final Report)

DOE supported research suggests that gross primary productivity (GPP) is largely underestimated by global earth system models [Welp et al., 2011], reflecting the persistent challenge in extrapolating from local-scale GPP observations to global-scale earth system models. This poor understanding of GPP at large spatial scales is of particular concern in tropical forests. In tropical forests, some earth systems models forecast a powerful feedback between a warming climate and a decline in GPP resulting in forest dieback. While this simulated feedback is intensely debated, we lack robust large-scale constraints on GPP that are needed to resolve this debate. In particular, carbon dioxide measurements provide valuable information on net carbon flux, but not on the gross flux associated with GPP. Here we conducted a study of regional-to-global scale GPP using atmospheric carbonyl sulfide to provide a new constraint on GPP mechanisms in earth system models. Our project activities integrated modeling, in situ measurement, and remote sensing techniques to resolve GPP for the Amazon as well as global scale trends. The results of this work included initiating airborne carbonyl sulfide monitoring in the Amazon, training for postdocs and graduate students at a Hispanic Serving Institution, fundamental advances in carbonyl sulfide budgets [e.g. Hilton et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017], and high-profile publications that focused on GPP trends for the Amazon [Stinecipher et al., GRL, 2022] and global historical GPP trends [Campbell, et al., Nature, 2017]. Based on the suggestion of our DOE program manager, we published a state-of-the-science commentary to the scientific community on GPP monitoring with COS [Campbell et al., EOS, 2017] which was selected as the cover story. DOE support was acknowledged in all reports. The importance of this research to understanding climate change was communicated to the general public through community seminars (Rotary, Public Libraries, State Parks), an op-ed (SF Chronicle), and interviews in the mass media including two stories in the New York Times (4/5/17; 7/30/18), one of which was especially widely read after it was featured in the New York Time’s Quote of the Day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-physics Peridynamic Modeling of Damage Processes in Protective Coatings

Protective coatings can revolutionize the aerospace industry by providing a way to build a fuel-efficient and low-emission gas turbine engine operating at elevated temperature. Currently, significant challenges persist in the multi-physics modeling of damage processes in protective coatings exposed to the hot corrosive environment of gas turbine engine. Examples of such detrimental processes include an interface damage between different material layers forming protective coating, a formation of the through-the-thickness vertical cracks, a diffusion of oxygen and moisture through those cracks, an oxidation, and a delamination. In this paper, a feasibility of a multi-physics peridynamic model to provide insight to these detrimental processes has been demonstrated. 3-Dimensional peridynamic equations which are valid everywhere, including dynamically evolving discontinuities, have been presented. In conclusion, validation and demonstration have been shown for conduction heat transfer, reactive oxidation, and delamination of protective coating with a composition borrowed from the open literature.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-observation discrepancies in Arctic moisture intrusions: causes and pathways for improved simulation

Arctic moisture intrusions (MIs), narrow filaments of strong moisture transport, are key drivers of poleward moisture flux and Arctic weather extremes, yet their representation in climate models is poorly understood. Using a new Arctic MI detection algorithm, we document persistent biases across three CMIP generations (CMIP3–CMIP6): models overestimate MI occurrence over the Pacific sector and underestimate it over the Atlantic sector. These errors stem from misrepresented midlatitude westerly jets, with an equatorward North Atlantic jet associated with too few Atlantic MIs, and a poleward, weakened North Pacific jet linked to too many Pacific MIs. Experiments that correct sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration biases and increase atmospheric resolution improve jet structure and MI statistics, while a cloud-locking simulation indicates that better high-frequency cloud–radiation–circulation interactions can yield further gains. Our results clarify pathways to reducing long-standing MI and jet biases, providing guidance for improving simulations of Arctic and midlatitude climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗