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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Preliminary Results and Lessons Learned

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado’s “Can Do Colorado” initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, starting in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The nonmotorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO 2 . Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Procedure and Preliminary Results

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado's "Can Do Colorado" initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, start in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The non-motorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO2. Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

History Matching and Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope is ongoing. After more than 3 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is less than that of the same polymer used in a polymer pilot in Argentina.

Wang, Xindan↗
DOE OSTI2023

High Fidelity Modeling of WELL58-32 DFITS

Between 2017 and 2019, a series of injection tests were performed at pilot vertical well 58-32 at the Utah FORGE site. These injection activities were conducted in three distinct zones, isolated with packers and bridge plugs during the tests. Zone 1 consists of an open-hole section at the toe of the well, whereas Zones 2 and 3 are three-meter long cased and perforated sections. Several injection cycles were conducted in each zone. A detailed description of the geology of the FORGE site, of well 58-32 and of all injection cycles can be found in (Xing et al., 2020). The injection cycles included Diagnostic Fracture Injection Tests (DFITs). DFITs comprise two primary stages: an injection (pump-in) phase, where controlled fluid injection is employed to create a small hydraulic fracture in the surrounding rock, followed by a shut-in phase, where injection ceases, allowing observation of the formation’s pressure response. Utilizing methodologies such as the G-function analysis, DFITs provide valuable insights, including fracture closure pressure and the Instantaneous Shut-in Pressure (ISIP) and can be employed to estimate the minimum horizontal stress.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polarization-shape alignment of IllustrisTNG star-forming galaxies

In star-forming disk galaxies, the radio continuum emission (1–10GHz) powered by star formation has an integrated polarization direction imperfectly aligned with the apparent disk minor axis. This polarization-shape alignment effect was previously observed in a small sample of local spirals. If this is prevalent for disk galaxies out to cosmological redshifts, novel measurements of cosmic birefringence and cosmic shear will be enabled by leveraging radio continuum surveys such as the Square Kilometre Array synergized with galaxy shape measurements. We calculate the polarization-shape misalignment angle for star-forming galaxies in the IllustrisTNG50 simulation at 0 < z < 2, assuming that additional polarized radio emission from an active galactic nucleus is negligible in at least a sizable fraction of the star-forming galaxies. The alignment found for z = 0 is consistent with local spiral data, but significantly deteriorates as redshift increases. Moreover, it degrades toward lower frequencies due to internal Faraday depolarization. Thanks to cosmic redshifting, observing higher-z galaxies at a fixed frequency greatly mitigates degradation due to reduced Faraday depolarization at the source-frame frequency. We present analytic fits to the non-Gaussian misalignment angle distribution, and evaluate Fisher information per galaxy for measuring a polarization rotation angle induced by cosmic birefringence. For observation at 4.8 GHz, the effective root-mean-square misalignment angle σα,eff is 18°, 23° and 33° at z = 0, 1 and 2, respectively. Analyzing N independent galaxies reduces the uncertainty on an isotropic cosmic birefringence signal to σ α,eff /√(N), providing competitive sensitivity once large samples are available. As accurate observation-driven models are not yet available for cosmological galaxy samples, our results motivate pilot observations to empirically characterize polarization-shape alignment, and can facilitate forecasts of cosmology and fundamental physics applications that exploit this effect.

axions↗
DOE OSTI2020

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an integrated modeling framework for investigating 3D plasma responses in tokamak plasmas

As contemporary experimental tokamaks are pushed toward reactor-relevant operation, they provide essential testbeds for demonstrating and exploring ELM control strategies for deployment in future fusion pilot plants. Accurate predictions of full plasma responses are essential to guide and optimize these demonstrations. This paper introduces and validates an integrated modeling framework over a historical range of DIII-D operational space. The integrated modeling framework uses only scalar plasma parameters and optional reference boundary to self-consistently and flexibly scan through tokamak operational space and estimate the corresponding ELM-suppression relevant plasma response over 3D coil phase space. The framework generates tightly converged equilibria that satisfy a target set of plasma parameters (I p , β N , l i ), with kinetic profiles constrained by an EPED(NN)-computed pedestal and empirical core model. The plasma response of these modeled equilibria is calculated with GPEC. Validated against 55 distinct DIII-D equilibria, the framework consistently reproduces experimentally constrained equilibrium pressure, q, and other representative profiles using the time-varying information from only evolving scalar plasma parameters; plasma response validation is performed for the n=3 perturbation. In particular, the plasma response of a DIII-D discharge scanning q 95 in search of ELM suppression windows is quantitatively reproduced. By accurately reproducing experimental equilibria and plasma responses across wide parameter variation, the framework supports potential for synthetic parameter scans in key operational, stability, and plasma response dimensions to investigate RMP ELM-suppression experiments and inform predictive RMP scenario optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Confinement performance predictions for a high field axisymmetric tandem mirror

This paper presents Hammir tandem mirror confinement performance analysis based on Realta Fusion's first-of-a-kind model for axisymmetric magnetic mirror fusion performance. This model uses an integrated end plug simulation model including, heating, equilibrium, and transport combined with a new formulation of the plasma operation contours (POPCONs) technique for the tandem mirror central cell. Using this model in concert with machine learning optimization techniques, it is shown that an end plug utilizing high temperature superconducting magnets and modern neutral beams enables a classical tandem mirror pilot plant producing a fusion gain Q > 5. The approach here represents an important advance in tandem mirror design. The high fidelity end plug model enables calculations of heating and transport in the highly non-Maxwellian end plug to be made more accurately. The detailed end plug modelling performed in this work has highlighted the importance of classical radial transport and neutral beam absorption efficiency on end plug viability. The central cell POPCON technique allows consideration of a wide range of parameters in the relatively simple near-Maxwellian central cell, facilitating the selection of more optimal central cell plasmas. These advances make it possible to find more conservative classical tandem mirror fusion pilot plant operating points with lower temperatures, neutral beam energies, and end plug performance requirements than designs in the literature. Despite being more conservative, it is shown that these operating points have sufficient confinement performance to serve as the basis of a viable fusion pilot plant provided that they can be stabilized against MHD and trapped particle modes.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of turbulence-radiation coupling in pressurized oxy-combustion

Concerns over climate change have led to numerous efforts in developing low-carbon energy technologies. Pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emission in power generation. Due to the strong impact of pressure on thermal radiation, heat transfer in POC differs significantly from the situation of conventional atmospheric pressure combustion. Thus thermal radiation in POC needs to be investigated to aid new combustor development. The present computational work is a step in this direction, initiating a systematic analysis of thermal radiation and heat transfer in a pilot-scale POC combustor, which has been developed at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). In a POC process, pulverized coal is burned under elevated pressure and O2-CO2 environment. While most previous computational works on flame radiation focused on atmospheric pressure condition, this work considered a pressurized flame. Specifically, a 15-bar POC combustor of power 50 kW is modeled employing the Ansys FLUENT commercial platform, using both Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modeling and large-eddy simulation (LES). A recently published and validated global radiation model is used to predict the radiative property of the flue gas. The discrete ordinates (DO) radiation model is chosen to solve the radiative transport equation. Incident radiation on the walls of the combustor is identified and investigated. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized combustor, thermal radiation exhibits similar patterns in the RANS and LES models. However, the magnitudes of radiation are different in both models, presumably because interactions between radiation and turbulence are embedded in the LES model but not in the RANS model. This difference thereby underlines the major goal of this research: investigating the impact of such turbulence-to-radiation coupling on thermal radiation in a pilot-scale POC setting. Most previous studies on turbulence-to-radiation interactions focused on bench-scale, atmospheric pressure flames. This work is the first effort to extend this study to a pilot-scale, pressurized flame.

Li, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Lattice-Boltzmann Models Coupled with Geochemical Modeling Applied for Simulation of Advanced Waterflooding and Enhanced Oil Recovery Processes

To maintain economic profit and improve the oil production efficiency after the primary and secondary production phase, advanced waterflooding techniques such as low salinity waterflooding in carbonate reservoirs have been investigated in numerical simulations, laboratory experiments, and field pilot tests. Multiple underlying mechanisms have been proposed based on these studies, and they are still under debate. Various numerical modeling approaches are introduced, but there exists a lack of a pore-scale comprehensive modeling scheme to fully understand the processes. Lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM) is a type of numerical fluid flow modeling technique that shows capabilities and flexibilities in modeling pore-scale fluid flow to integrate physical–chemical processes within complex structures. The intrinsic feature of LBM makes it a promising framework for simulating advanced waterflooding due to its flexibility, accuracy, and parallel efficiency. LBM works either by itself for solving reactive transport problems or by coupling with a third-party reaction solver. This review mainly introduces the LBM fluid flow and reactive transport capabilities and the concept and modeling approaches to simulate advanced waterflooding techniques. Meanwhile, an evaluation of the coupled LBM models for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) simulations is discussed with future research challenges and directions concluded.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confinement performance predictions for a high field axisymmetric tandem mirror

This paper presents a Hammir tandem mirror confinement performance analysis based on Realta Fusion’s first-of-a-kind model for axisymmetric magnetic mirror fusion performance. This model uses an integrated end plug simulation model including, heating, equilibrium and transport combined with a new formulation of the plasma operation contours (POPCONs) technique for the tandem mirror central cell. Using this model in concert with machine learning optimization techniques, it is shown that an end plug utilizing high temperature superconducting magnets and modern neutral beams enables a classical tandem mirror pilot plant producing a fusion gain Q > 5. The approach here represents an important advance in tandem mirror design. The high-fidelity end plug model enables calculations of heating and transport in the highly non-Maxwellian end plug to be made more accurately. The detailed end plug modelling performed in this work has highlighted the importance of classical radial transport and neutral beam absorption efficiency on end plug viability. The central cell POPCON technique allows consideration of a wide range of parameters in the relatively simple near-Maxwellian central cell, facilitating the selection of more optimal central cell plasmas. These advances make it possible to find more conservative classical tandem mirror fusion pilot plant operating points with lower temperatures, neutral beam energies and end plug performance requirements than designs in the literature. Despite being more conservative, it is shown that these operating points have sufficient confinement performance to serve as the basis of a viable fusion pilot plant provided that they can be stabilized against magnetohydrodynamic and trapped particle modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Start-up and Emergency Shutdown Modeling for a Coal-fired 10MWe sCO₂ Power Plant

As part of a Phase II Front End Engineering Design (FEED) study for the DOE Fossil Fuel Large Scale Pilots program, investigations of novel start-up and emergency shutdown methods for a stoker-fed, coal-fired, 10MWe sCO₂ power plant proposal were performed. These investigations were performed using 1D transient system models of the plant created within the GT-SUITE system modeling platform. The system model components were created using vendor quotation data (heat exchangers), performance maps (turbomachines), or FMU models (fired heater). Previously, Echogen Power Systems (Echogen) has used a sCO₂ power cycle start-up method that fills the system with liquid CO₂ to facilitate easy use of an electrically-driven start pump to transition the system from initial CO₂ fill to turbo-compressor initialization. The novel start-up method presented attempts this transition with a minimal filling of the system with liquid CO₂, to reduce the total CO₂ inventory required. This method leaves the start pump vulnerable to a two phase inlet condition as system pressure is below the CO₂ saturation pressure for the condenser cooling water temperature (Tcw). System model cases at Tcw of 18°C, 26°C, and 32°C, corresponding to cold, design, and hot ambient days, were analyzed to determine if the SP inlet condition could be kept as a subcooled liquid and estimate the CO₂ inventory reduction amount./p> Stoker-fed, coal-fired heaters continue to emit heat for some time even after emergency shutdown from events such as a power failure. This heat emission would lead to a failure of the fired heater, as the metal overheats, if the CO₂ flow is shut off. The emergency shutdown method presented utilizes CO₂ vented by a controllable vent valve (CRV) to provide CO₂ cooling flow to the fired heater. To determine the effectiveness of this method at keeping the fired heater peak tubing metal temperature below the ASME material temperature limit, for pressures below 5 MPa, of 816 °C, system model cases with CRV diameters ranging from 4” to 10”, and an alternative CO₂ vent routing with CRV size of 6”, were investigated./p>

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Hydropower facility as an Energy Water Signal Processor

In recent times, various efforts have been made to address the challenge of adequately representing hydropower systems in modeling frameworks, accounting for the lack of data to represent the multiple constraints in hydropower operation. This research is a pilot data-driven methodology for characterizing, classifying, and comparing the water-to-energy and energy-to-water signal transformations that hydropower facilities as signal processors accomplish. In this study, a Box Jenkins transfer function/noise model is used to identify the relationship between reservoir inflows and outflows. For examining the feasibility of this methodology, 5-minute fleet data for five storage and five run-of-river facilities was provided by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and transfer function models are developed. The influence of past inflow and outflow values on the current outflow decisions was investigated and summarized by examining the results of Box Jenkins methodology. Finally, dominance analysis was introduced to add value to the Box Jenkins model results and provide different stakeholders with a set of concepts to convey the functionality of hydropower.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Coal and Biomass – Integration of Combustor Boiler and DCC

Critical to the future of power generation is the development of a power plant that will be capable of flexible operation to meet the needs of the modern grid, providing resilient, low-emissions power to a grid that is increasingly seeing a large penetration of intermittent wind and solar. The modular Staged, Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) process envisioned by and under development at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL) has the potential to achieve these goals. The process offers: 1) a modular plant design for improved operational flexibility; 2) fuel-staging combined with pressurized oxy-combustion, which leads to smaller plant size, higher plant efficiency, and lower cost for pollutant and greenhouse gas removal compared with traditional carbon-capture equipped coal power plants; and 3) small modular boilers and pollutant removal units that can be fabricated in shop and assembled on site, further reducing plant capital costs. Under DOE's support (DE-FE0031925), WUSTL is advancing the development of the critical components for the SPOC power plant, including the integrated combustion system and the direct contact cooler (DCC) from Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4 to TRL-5, which would allow these technologies to be subsequently incorporated into a pilot plant. This talk will present an overview of the SPOC technology, CFD modeling and validation for burner and boiler development, and recent results to evaluate critical components for system integration needed to advance its TRL.

Magalhaes, Duarte↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Coal and Biomass

Critical to the future of power generation is the development of a power plant that will be capable of flexible operation to meet the needs of the modern grid, providing resilient, low-emissions power to a grid that is increasingly seeing a large penetration of intermittent wind and solar. The modular Staged, Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) process envisioned by and under development at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL) has the potential to achieve these goals. The process offers: 1) a modular plant design for improved operational flexibility; 2) fuel-staging combined with pressurized oxy-combustion, which leads to smaller plant size, higher plant efficiency, and lower cost for pollutant and greenhouse gases removal compared with traditional carbon-capture equipped coal power plants; and 3) small modular boilers and pollutant removal units that can be fabricated in shop and assembled on site, further reducing plant capital costs. Under DOE's support (DE-FE0031925), WUSTL is advancing the development of the critical components for the SPOC power plant, including the integrated combustion system and the direct contact cooler (DCC) from Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4 to TRL-5, which would allow these technologies to be subsequently incorporated into a pilot plant. This talk will present an overview of the SPOC technology, CFD modeling and validation for burner and boiler development, and recent results to evaluate critical components needed to advance its TRL.

Magalhaes, Duarte↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗