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A Revised Exoplanet Yield from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has a goal of detecting small planets orbiting stars bright enough for mass determination via ground-based radial velocity observations. Here, we present estimates of how many exoplanets the TESS mission will detect, the physical properties of the detected planets, and the properties of the stars that those planets orbit. This work uses stars drawn from the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List and revises yields from prior studies that were based on Galactic models. We modeled the TESS observing strategy to select approximately 200,000 stars at 2-minute cadence, while the remaining stars are observed at 30-minute cadence in full-frame image data. We placed zero or more planets in orbit around each star, with physical properties following measured exoplanet occurrence rates, and used the TESS noise model to predict the derived properties of the detected exoplanets. In the TESS 2-minute cadence mode we estimate that TESS will find 1250 ± 70 exoplanets (90% confidence), including 250 smaller than 2 R(sub ⊕). Furthermore, we predict that an additional 3100 planets will be found in full-frame image data orbiting bright dwarf stars and more than 10,000 around fainter stars. We predict that TESS will find 500 planets orbiting M dwarfs, but the majority of planets will orbit stars larger than the Sun. Our simulated sample of planets contains hundreds of small planets amenable to radial velocity follow-up, potentially more than tripling the number of planets smaller than 4 R(sub ⊕) with mass measurements. This sample of simulated planets is available for use in planning follow-up observations and analyses.
Planetary atmosphere evolution: do other habitable planets exist and can we detect them?
The goal of this conference is to consider whether it is possible within the next few decades to detect Earth-like planets around other stars using telescopes or interferometers on the ground or in space. Implicit in the term "Earth-like" is the idea that such planets might be habitable by Earth-like organisms, or that they might actually be inhabited. Here, I shall address two questions from the standpoint of planetary atmosphere evolution. First, what are the chances that habitable planets exist around other stars? And, second, if inhabited planets exist, what would be the best way to detect them?.
The Kepler Mission: A Search for Terrestrial Planets - Development Status
We have embarked on a mission to detect terrestrial planets. The space mission has been optimized to search for earth-size planets (0.5 to 10 earth masses) in the habitable zone (HZ) of solar-like stars. Given this design, the mission will necessarily be capable of not only detecting Earth analogs, but a wide range of planetary types and characteristics ranging from Mercury-size objects with orbital periods of days to gas-giants in decade long orbits that have undeniable signatures even with only one transit detected. The mission is designed to survey the full range of spectral-type dwarf stars. The approach is to detect the periodic signal of transiting planets. Three or more transits of a star exceeding a combined threshold of eight sigma with a statistically consistent period, brightness change and duration provide a rigorous method of detection. From the relative brightness change the planet size can be calculated. From the period the orbital size can be calculated and its location relative to the HZ determined. Presented here are: the mission goals, the top level system design requirements derived from these goals that drive the flight system design, a number of the trades that have lead to the mission concept, expected photometric performance dependence on stellar brightness and spectral type based on the system 'noise tree' analysis. Updated estimates are presented of the numbers of detectable planets versus size, orbit, stellar spectral type and distances based on a planet frequency hypothesis. The current project schedule and organization are given.
Detectability of Transiting Terrestrial Planets in the Habitable Zone with TESS
In the Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog, Kaltenegger et al. (2021) identified the 2-min TESS target stars that were observed for sufficient duration over consecutive primary mission sectors to unambiguously capture a transit signature of planets orbiting in the Habitable Zone (HZ). The Catalog did not, however, identify the host stars for which transiting planets with HZ orbits and specified radii would be detectable based on the photometric precision of the retrieved light curves. We employ the Combined Differential Photometric Precision (CDPP) computed at 15 pulse durations in the Science Processing Operations Center (SPOC) transit searches of the primary mission light curves to estimate the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) associated with transiting terrestrial planets (1.0 Re <= Rp<= 2.0 Re) in the HZ of the Catalog stars. We consider orbital periods under three HZ scenarios: Recent Venus, Earth Analog, and Early Mars. Given S/N, we further estimate the probability of detection of transiting terrestrial planets for each Catalog star and HZ scenario in the primary mission SPOC transit searches. We also present the expected yield by HZ scenario and planet radius under the assumption that all Catalog stars host such planets.
Simulation of a Method to Directly Image Exoplanets Around Multiple Stars Systems
Direct imaging of extra-solar planets has now become a reality, especially with the deployment and commissioning of the first generation of specialized ground-based instruments such as the GPI, SPHERE, P1640 and SCExAO. These systems will allow detection of planets 107 times fainter than their host star. For space-based missions, such as EXCEDE, EXO-C, EXO-S, WFIRST/AFTA, different teams have shown in laboratories contrasts reaching 10(exp −10) within a few diffraction limits from the star using a combination of a coronagraph to suppress light coming from the host star and a wavefront control system. These demonstrations use a deformable mirror (DM) to remove residual starlight (speckles) created by the imperfections of telescope. However, all these current and future systems focus on detecting faint planets around a single host star or unresolved binaries/multiples, while several targets or planet candidates are located around nearby binary stars such as our neighbor star Alpha Centauri. Until now, it has been thought that removing the light of a companion star is impossible with current technology, excluding binary star systems from target lists of direct imaging missions. Direct imaging around binaries/multiple systems at a level of contrast allowing Earth-like planet detection is challenging because the region of interest, where a dark zone is essential, is contaminated by the light coming from the hosts star companion. We propose a method to simultaneously correct aberrations and diffraction of light coming from the target star as well as its companion star in order to reveal planets orbiting the target star. This method works even if the companion star is outside the control region of the DM (beyond its half-Nyquist frequency), by taking advantage of aliasing effects.
Detection of Extra-Solar Planets with Ground-Based Telescopes
The detection of extra-solar planets around stars like the Sun remains a unfulfilled goal of astronomy.
The detectability of extrasolar terrestrial and giant planets during their luminous final accretion
One of the outstanding scientific questions in astronomy is the frequency at which solar systems form. Answering this question is an observational challenge because extrasolar planets are intrinsically difficult to directly detect. The direct detectability of planets is examined during the short but unique epoch of giant impacts that is a hallmark of the standard theory of planetary formation. Sufficiently large impacts during this era are capable of creating a luminous, 1500-2500 K photosphere, which can persist for timescales exceeding 103 years in some cases. The detectability of such events and the number of young stars one would need to examine to expect to find a luminous terrestrial class planet after a giant impact are examined. With emerging IR interferometric technology, thermally-luminous earth-sized objects can be detected in nearby star forming regions in 1-2 nights observing time. Unfortunately, predictions indicate that approximately 250 young stars would have to be searched to expect to find one hot, terrestrial-sized planet. By comparison, the detection of Saturn and Uranus/Neptune-sized planets after a giant impact requires only 1-2 hours of observing time. A single Keck-class telescope should be able to determine whether such planets are common in the nearest star forming regions by examining about less than 100 young stars over a few tens of nights. The results obtained herein suggest a new strategy for the detection of solar systems with the potential for the observational confirmation of the standard theory of late-stage planetary accretion.
The detectability of extrasolar terrestrial and giant planets during their luminous final accretion
One of the outstanding scienfific questions in astronomy is the frequency at which solar systems form. Answering this question is an observational challenge because extrasolar planets are intrinsically difficult to directly detect. Here I examine the direct detectability of planets during the short but unique epoch of giant impacts that is a hallmark of the standard theory of planetary formation. Sufficiently large impacts during this era are capable of creating a luminous, 1500-2500 K photosphere, which can persist for time scales exceeding 10(exp 3) yr in some cases. I examine the detectability of such events and the number of young stars one would need to examine to expect to find a luminous terrestrial-class planet after a giant impact. With emerging IR interferometric technology, thermally luminous Earth-sized objects can be detected in nearby star forming regions in 1-2 nights of observing time. Unfortunately, predictions indicated that approximately 250 young stars would have to be searched to expect to find one hot, terrestrial-sized planet. By comparison, the detection of Saturn and Uranus-Neptune-sized planets after a giant impact requires only 1-2 h of observing time. A single Keck-class telescope should be able to determine whether such planets are common in the nearest star forming regions by examining less than or approximately equal to 100 young stars over a few tens of nights. The results obtained here suggest a new strategy for the detection of solar systems with the potential for the observational confirmation of the standard theory of late-stage planetary accretion.
Detection of microorganisms on the planet Mars.
Wolf Trap Mars microorganism detection, assuming photosynthetic and respiration cycles in inorganic biochemical compounds
Detectability of extrasolar planetary transits
Precise stellar photometry can be used to detect other planetary systems. However, the intrinsic variability of stellar luminosity imposes a fundamental limit on the sensitivity of this method. Based on recent precise solar observations made from the Solar Maximum Mission satellite, it appears that the detection of earth-sized planets will be marginal during periods of high stellar activity. However, with a suitable photometer larger planets should be readily detectable even in the presence of stellar activity equal to that of the sun at the peak of its sunspot cycle. The high precision, multiple-star photometric system required to detect planets in other stellar systems could be used to monitor flares, starspots, and global oscillations.
Adaptive Nulling: A New Enabling Technology for Interferometric Exoplanet
Deep, stable nulling of starlight requires careful control of the amplitudes and phases of the beams that are being combined. The detection of earth-like planets using the interferometer architectures currently being considered for the Terrestrial Planet Finder mission require that the E-field amplitudes are balanced at the level of approx. 0.1%, and the phases are controlled at the level of 1 mrad (corresponding to approx.1.5 nm for a wavelength of 10 microns). These conditions must be met simultaneously at all wavelengths across the science band, and for both polarization states, imposing unrealistic tolerances on the symmetry between the optical beamtrains. We introduce the concept of a compensator that is inserted into the beamtrain, which can adaptively correct for the mismatches across the spectrum, enabling deep nulls with realistic, imperfect optics. The design presented uses a deformable mirror to adjust the amplitude and phase of each beam as an arbitrary function of wavelength and polarization. A proof-of-concept experiment will be conducted at visible/near-IR wavelengths, followed by a system operating in the Mid-IR band.
A system level testbed for a mid-infrared beam-combiner for Terrestrial Planet Finder
Direct optical detection of earth-like planets orbiting nearby stars is the goal of the Terrestrial Planet Finder project. One instrument which may have the capability to detect such small, faint objects in proximity to the parent star is the infra-red nulling interferometer. A four input beam combiner is being built to test apsects of the beam combination and planet detection problem. This paper describes the design developed for a ground testbed.
Detection of tides on planets and satellites using orbiting spacecraft and landers
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Systems level feasibility study for the detection of extra-solar planets. Volume 1: Infrared interferometer (IRIS) known as the Stanford Concept
A sensor system for the direct detection of extrasolar planets from an Earth orbit is evaluated: a spinning, infrared interferometer (IRIS). It is shuttle deployed, free flying, requires no on-orbit assembly and no reservicing over a design life of five years. The sensor concept and the mission objectives are reviewed, and the performance characteristics of a baseline sensor for standard observation conditions are derived. A baseline sensor design is given and the enabling technology discussed. Cost and weight estimates are performed; and a schedule for an IRIS program including technology development and assessment of risk are given. Finally, the sensor is compared with the apodized visual telescope sensor (APOTS) proposed for the same mission. The major conclusions are: that with moderate to strong technology advances, particularly in the fields of long life cryogenics, dynamical control, mirror manufacturing, and optical alignment, the detection of a Jupiter like planet around a Sunlike star at a distance of 30 light years is feasible, with a 3 meter aperture and an observation time of 1 hour. By contrast, major and possibly unlikely breakthroughs in mirror technology are required for APOTS to match this performance.
Planetary Gearbox Fault Detection Using Vibration Separation Techniques
Studies were performed to demonstrate the capability to detect planetary gear and bearing faults in helicopter main-rotor transmissions. The work supported the Operations Support and Sustainment (OSST) program with the U.S. Army Aviation Applied Technology Directorate (AATD) and Bell Helicopter Textron. Vibration data from the OH-58C planetary system were collected on a healthy transmission as well as with various seeded-fault components. Planetary fault detection algorithms were used with the collected data to evaluate fault detection effectiveness. Planet gear tooth cracks and spalls were detectable using the vibration separation techniques. Sun gear tooth cracks were not discernibly detectable from the vibration separation process. Sun gear tooth spall defects were detectable. Ring gear tooth cracks were only clearly detectable by accelerometers located near the crack location or directly across from the crack. Enveloping provided an effective method for planet bearing inner- and outer-race spalling fault detection.
Ground-based detectability of terrestrial and Jovian extrasolar planets: observations of CM Draconis at Lick Observatory
The detection of terrestrial-sized extrasolar planets from the ground has been thought to be virtually impossible due to atmospheric scintillation limits. However, we show that this is not the case especially selected (but nevertheless main sequence) stars, namely small eclipsing binaries. For the smallest of these systems, CM Draconis, several months to a few years of photometric observations with 1-m-class telescopes will be sufficient to detect the transits of any short-period planets of sizes > or = 1.5 Earth radii (RE), using cross-correlation analysis with moderately good photometry. Somewhat larger telescopes will be needed to extend this detectability to terrestrial planets in larger eclipsing binary systems. (We arbitrarily define "terrestrial planets" herein as those whose disc areas are closer to that of Earth's than Neptune's i.e., less than about 2.78 RE.) As a "spin-off" of such observations, we will also be able to detect the presence of Jovian-mass planets without transits using the timing of the eclipse minima. Eclipse minima will drift in time as the binary system is offset by a sufficiently massive planet (i.e., one Jupiter mass) about the binary/giant-planet barycenter, causing a periodic variation in the light travel time to the observer. We present here an outline of present observations taking place at the University of California Lick Observatory using the Crossley 0.9-m telescope in collaboration with other observatories (in South Korea, Crete, France, Canary Islands, and New York) to detect or constrain the existence of terrestrial planets around main sequence eclipsing binary star systems, starting with CM Draconis. We demonstrate the applicability of photometric data to the general detection of gas giant planets via eclipse minima timings in many other small-mass eclipsing binary systems as well.