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Biomass Harmonization and SAR Analysis with the Multi-mission Algorithm and Analysis Platform (MAAP)

The Multi‐mission Algorithm and Analysis Platform (MAAP) is a collaborative effort between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) to support above ground biomass (AGB) research in an open science framework. MAAP brings together relevant data, algorithms, and computing capabilities in a common cloud environment to address the challenges of sharing and processing data from field, airborne and satellite measurements. MAAP was publicly released in October 2021, providing computing capabilities co-located with the data, a collaborative coding and analysis environment, and a set of interoperable tools and algorithms developed to support the estimation and visualization of data. MAAP has allowed scientists from both North America and Europe to collaborate on the generation and analysis/visualization of data derived from multiple, discipline-adjacent missions in an open, collaborative environment that has reached beyond traditional scientific investigation. MAAP has been used to support multiple scientific activities. To date, existing LiDAR data from multiple platforms has been calibrated with field measurements and combined for more comprehensive and accurate estimates of above ground biomass AGB; these LiDAR platforms include airborne (e.g. LVIS), the International Space Station (NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), and satellites (e.g. ICESat-2). The current challenge is to effectively and seamlessly combine the aforementioned LiDAR-based data with new data sources such as P-band RADAR from ESA’s upcoming BIOMASS mission, existing ESA Sentinel-1 C-band SAR, and the 30 PB/yr of high cadence global coverage L-band SAR data from the upcoming NASA-ISRO SAR (NISAR) mission. Recent analysis using MAAP merged ICESat-2 and optical data (Harmonized Landsat Sentinel) produced the most comprehensively precise estimate of boreal-wide AGB to date. Another effort using MAAP is the production and open distribution of global comparisons of AGB map estimates, including from ICESat-2 and GEDI, to bolster stakeholder uptake for policy applications. These map estimates will feed into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) database, likely aiding the next Global Carbon Stocktake of the UNFCCC. Furthermore, the biomass retrieval intercomparison exercise BRIX-2 could benefit from the MAAP providing standardized test cases (based on airborne campaign and spaceborne data) allowing the community to develop and apply retrieval algorithms based on these test cases, while forthcoming SAR data training curricula could also use the MAAP as a teaching and learning platform. The MAAP is meeting the challenges inherent in international, open science collaboration and large scale computing with a platform that is entirely open source and cloud native, using open standards for data access, manipulation, protocols, and formats. The MAAP data system consists of a dedicated data store whose data is indexed in an online catalog conforming to established metadata, application programmatic interfaces (APIs), and service interface standards, using an implementation of the open sourced NASA Common Metadata Repository. Federation of user identities allows users from either NASA or ESA to access and consume services from the other using a unified metadata catalog for the data utilized across the ESA and NASA MAAP platforms. Similarly, we are exploring how to increase interoperability to achieve a common approach to packaging, orchestrating and executing algorithms, with interoperable access to data for subsetting, fast browse, and cloud-optimized access, all using interoperable standards such as those from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Designed for interoperability, ESA and NASA utilize a common architecture for the software platform. It provides a cloud-based algorithm development environment (ADE) that enables scientists to develop algorithms collaboratively with access to the MAAP data catalog as well as other data archives. MAAP provides an Eclipse Che-based ADE supporting both Python and R languages, popular in this biomass community. Algorithms developed and containerized within the ADE can be deployed to run to thousands of computational nodes in the MAAP’s data processing system (DPS), dramatically speeding up processing and giving scientists a rapid, iterative turnaround of results. NASA’s implementation of the DPS is based on the Hybrid Science Data System (HySDS) framework, used by NASA flight projects to produce Earth science standard products.

cloud computing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗
NASA NTRS2011

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

Culbert, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W/sq m, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (0.50 to +1.08) W/sq m during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (0.06 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of 1.45 to +1.29 W/sq m). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

black carbon↗
NASA NTRS2002

HI-STAR. Health Improvements through Space Technologies and Resources: Executive Summary

Our mission is to develop and promote a global strategy to help combat malaria using space technology. Like the tiny yet powerful mosquito, HI-STAR (Health Improvements Through Space Technologies and Resources) is a small program that aspires to make a difference. Timely detection of malaria danger zones is essential to help health authorities and policy makers make decisions about how to manage limited resources for combating malaria. In 2001, the technical support network for prevention and control of malaria epidemics published a study. HI-STAR focuses on malaria because it is the most common and deadly of the vector-borne diseases. Malaria also shares many commonalities with other diseases, which means the global strategy developed here may also be applicable to other parasitic diseases. HI-STAR would like to contribute to the many malaria groups already making great strides in the fight against malaria. Some examples include: Roll Back Malaria, The Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) and the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria (MIM). Other important groups that are among the first to include space technologies in their model include: The Center for Health Application of Aerospace Related Technologies (CHAART) and Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA). Malaria is a complex and multi-faceted disease. Combating it must therefore be equally versatile. HI-STAR incorporates an interdisciplinary, international, intercultural approach.called 'Malaria Early Warning Systems; Concepts, Indicators and Partners.' This study, funded by Roll Back Malaria, a World Health Organization initiative, offers a framework for a monitoring and early warning system. HI-STAR seeks to build on this proposal and enhance the space elements of the suggested framework. It is the work of fifty-three professionals and students from the International Space University's 2002 Summer Session Program held in California, USA.

Finarelli, Margaret G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Aircraft Technology for Public Services – A White Paper

History has shown that our personal life is highly dependent on the technology that people have developed. A strategic scan of the aerospace environment at the beginning of the 21st century strongly suggests that the world might be approaching a new age of airpower—the era of electrified/hybrid aircraft propulsion. Undeniably, starting from the Montgolfier Brothers balloon flight in 1783, to the Wright Brothers piston engine flight in 1903, and the jet engine of the 1960s, or the space age of today, one can say that leaps in propulsion technology have marked the different ages of human flight. The technological advancements, brought at the beginning of 21st century by the revolution in data exchange, computational power, sensors, wireless communication, internet, and autonomy, contributed to the vision of this new age of propulsion we are approaching. Historically, conventional vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft have been equipped with propulsion units relying on complex internal combustion machines (turbines, piston engines, for example), and complex mechanical arrangements (gearboxes, shafts, variable pitch propeller). By contrast, electric VTOL aircraft (eVTOL)1 rely on simpler propulsion units (electric motors and in some cases fixed-pitch propellers). This promotes redundancy and improves tolerance to failures, in turn improving safety. The use of simpler electric propulsion units should also allow significant acquisition and operating cost reductions. Whether full-electric (relying solely on batteries) or hybrid-electric (relying on a combination of batteries, fuel-powered engines, and generators.), eVTOLs are also expected to generate less noise and air pollution than conventional aircraft with similar payloads. According to the 2019 Annual Review of IATA (International Air Transport Association) [ref.1], due to an expected increase in air transport traffic by 5% every year and a doubling of air transport passenger numbers to 8.2 billion by 2037 significant challenges are posed to the aviation industry. Furthermore, this report does not factor in the expected demand for short-range (intra-city) air transportation, which is in development and yet to be operational. The increased demand to fly creates a responsibility to expand in a sustainable manner and an endeavor to develop more environmentally-friendly aircraft. eVTOL aircraft, either piloted or autonomous, is gathering considerable interest worldwide. Modern and novel full-electric or hybrid-electric eVTOL configurations enable a new paradigm shift in air transportation as the aviation industry remains committed to its goals of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards and cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. While electric power has been used for decades, recent developments in mobile electric/hybrid propulsion coupled with advanced materials and autonomous systems may create the possibility to transition into the next age of air mobility propelled by electric/hybrid VTOL aircraft technology. Although eVTOL aircraft might seem like an incremental improvement or even a counterintuitive regression with regard to past VTOL development, it has in fact the potential to transform air mobility across a wide range of government applications. Previous transformations in aviation generated dramatic leaps in performance, but the cost was commensurate with performance, limiting quantity produced. This next age appears to take a different approach. Performance may not increase, but at this moment technology is poised for future urban mobility that will spawn commercial passenger drone services, that is, autonomous (pilotless) air taxis and thereby add a new dimension to the urban transportation mix of the future [ref. 2]. Advances in electric propulsion, autonomous flight technology, and 5G communication networks will enable this fast new-growing market to become a reality. It is now time to envision the introduction of electric/hybrid eVTOL aircraft for Public Services2. We believe that in the next decades eVTOL aircraft will have the potential to become an essential tool to Public Service agencies around the world in applications such as firefighting, public safety, search and rescue, disaster relief and law enforcement. This is due to several major factors. • First, with the increasing popularity of small, unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or drones, many companies today are focusing on the development of passenger UAVs designed to accommodate up to five passengers or equivalent cargo payload. Many such configurations are electric or hybrid-electric designs with VTOL capabilities. Several of these projects have started a flight test program and many more are expected to be in the experimental and development phase in 2020. Such revolutionary vehicles could be in commercial operations by 2030. These eVTOL systems could be ready for selected Public Services missions even sooner. • Second, although these advanced eVTOL vehicles under development still need access to fuel (hybrid) and/or electric charging capability, they can take off and land from almost anywhere. Therefore, such vehicles, both manned and unmanned can be successfully integrated for the critical missions of the Public Services with extra deployment flexibilities. • Third, advancement in electric propulsion systems in the automotive industry together with NASA’s leading efforts in electrification of aircraft propulsion systems, FAA’s ongoing active eVTOL certification programs, and EASA’s proposed framework for the certification of electric/hybrid small category VTOL aircraft in Europe [ref. 3] will help accelerate industry electric propulsion system development and integration. • Finally, eVTOL vehicles could be deployed for Public Services sooner than air taxi or other commercial applications, since Public Services missions may be more easily approved based on specific mission criteria, localized airworthiness authority for public-use aircraft3, and are normally operating under centralized airspace management and control by the theater command. Moreover, public perception and acceptance are generally less of a concern when operations save lives and benefit the wider community. The prioritized introduction of eVTOL aircraft in Public Services is ambitious, but we believe it is achievable in the coming decades if fundamental enablers (people and technologies) are engaged in defining the objectives and needs of these missions. The revolution that is currently taking place in eVTOL aircraft represents an unprecedented opportunity to develop a safer, more affordable, more available and more environmentally friendly future of vertical flight. To ensure that these novel aircraft meet the future expectations of Public Services, it is essential to take a collaborative and multi-disciplinary approach to their development, across engineering disciplines, policy-making, program management, business case development, manufacturing, and flight demonstrations. It should be noted that the term eVTOL (in the near term) used throughout this publication implies aircraft capable of transporting up to 5 persons which may or may not include a pilot if operated fully autonomously, assuming an average of 200 pounds (91 kg) per person or equivalent payload and a range up to 60 miles plus a suitable reserve. Hybrid or hydrogen powered eVTOLs would have greater range. For example, a “3-seat” eVTOL aircraft may only be able to carry two fully equipped firemen, and payload capacity is more relevant when used for the supply mission. Moreover, this paper concentrates on the “last-mile” solutions with a deployment time of no more than 6 hours. Although not specifically discussed in this document, it is understood that the future of Transformative Vertical Flight in general and Public Services, in particular, will also involve smaller UAVs that will undoubtedly play a crucial role in future aerial operations. For example, smaller unmanned aircraft may be used to dispatch medical supplies, portable filtration systems or perform the Search task of future Search and Rescue (SAR) operations. Close collaboration between the aircraft industry, the Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA), e.g., Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Transport Canada Civil Aviation (TCCA) and the Department of Defense (DoD) certifiers, will help identify Public Services requirements, define expectations and limit development cost and timescales. Take the US Air Force Agility Prime as an example, the majority of the eVTOL application opportunities and mission elements identified are in line with the NASA TVF WG-4 objectives and use cases. Together, it forms a strong partnership to accelerate the development, certification, and practical deployment for public service missions. The US Air Force Agility Prime has been a collaboration partner on this white paper, and provided valuable input and recommendations. Most of the eVTOL public service mission elements discussed in this paper and additional use cases envisioned by the NASA TVF WG-4 team are shared by the Agility Prime program. The focus and efforts of the Agility Prime in product and system development, industry and government partnership, accelerated certifications as well as early test and deployment are totally in sync with the path forward recommended by this white paper. This kind of collaboration and partnership will help enable the practical use of the eVTOL for public service missions, benefit the eVTOL public acceptance, and accelerate the eVTOL industry revolution.

Johnny T. Doo↗
NASA NTRS2011

Overview of NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project

NASA's space-based observations of physical, chemical and biological parameters in the Earth System along with state-of-the-art modeling capabilities provide unique capabilities for analyses of the carbon cycle. The Carbon Monitoring System is developing an exploratory framework for detecting carbon in the environment and its changes, with a view towards contributing to national and international monitoring activities. The Flux-Pilot Project aims to provide a unified view of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange, using observation-constrained models. Central to the project is the application of NASA's satellite observations (especially MODIS), the ACOS retrievals of the JAXA-GOSAT observations, and the "MERRA" meteorological reanalysis produced with GEOS-S. With a primary objective of estimating uncertainty in computed fluxes, two land- and two ocean-systems are run for 2009-2010 and compared with existing flux estimates. An transport model is used to evaluate simulated CO2 concentrations with in-situ and space-based observations, in order to assess the realism of the fluxes and how uncertainties in fluxes propagate into atmospheric concentrations that can be more readily evaluated. Finally, the atmospheric partial CO2 columns observed from space are inverted to give new estimates of surface fluxes, which are evaluated using the bottom-up estimates and independent datasets. The focus of this presentation will be on the science goals and current achievements of the pilot project, with emphasis on how policy-relevant questions help focus the scientific direction. Examples include the issue of what spatio-temporal resolution of fluxes can be detected from polar-orbiting satellites and whether it is possible to use space-based observations to separate contributions to atmospheric concentrations of (say) fossil-fuel and biological activity

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS1994

Common modeling system for digital simulation

The Joint Modeling and Simulation System is a tri-service investigation into a common modeling framework for the development digital models. The basis for the success of this framework is an X-window-based, open systems architecture, object-based/oriented methodology, standard interface approach to digital model construction, configuration, execution, and post processing. For years Department of Defense (DOD) agencies have produced various weapon systems/technologies and typically digital representations of the systems/technologies. These digital representations (models) have also been developed for other reasons such as studies and analysis, Cost Effectiveness Analysis (COEA) tradeoffs, etc. Unfortunately, there have been no Modeling and Simulation (M&S) standards, guidelines, or efforts towards commonality in DOD M&S. The typical scenario is an organization hires a contractor to build hardware and in doing so an digital model may be constructed. Until recently, this model was not even obtained by the organization. Even if it was procured, it was on a unique platform, in a unique language, with unique interfaces, and, with the result being UNIQUE maintenance required. Additionally, the constructors of the model expended more effort in writing the 'infrastructure' of the model/simulation (e.g. user interface, database/database management system, data journalizing/archiving, graphical presentations, environment characteristics, other components in the simulation, etc.) than in producing the model of the desired system. Other side effects include: duplication of efforts; varying assumptions; lack of credibility/validation; and decentralization in policy and execution. J-MASS provides the infrastructure, standards, toolset, and architecture to permit M&S developers and analysts to concentrate on the their area of interest.

Painter, Rick↗
NASA NTRS2015

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗
NASA NTRS2024

NASA Risk Management Handbook: Version 2.0, Part 1

The purpose of this handbook is to provide an in-depth reference for the practice of risk management in NASA, updating the guidance offered in its original version, NASA/SP-2011-3422 (November 2011), and closely aligning the updated guidance with the current NASA Procedural Requirements for Agency Risk Management, NPR 8000.4, and the parent NASA Policy Directive for NASA Governance and Strategic Management, NPD 1000.0. NPD 1000.0 introduces with emphasis the concept of “Risk Leadership,” making it a fundamental tenet and pillar of the risk management culture that it advocates for the Agency. NPR 8000.4 applies this concept and establishes Risk Management (RM) requirements for the Agency as an integrated enterprise, as well as the RM requirements for portfolio elements within the enterprise. Such elements include the various programs and projects that contribute to the Agency’s objectives and the various institutional activities carried out by entities that contribute to mission support. The present version of the handbook also emphasizes the integration of risk management processes across activity and project life cycles and their coordination and interaction with day-to-day programmatic and organizational functions. Areas of application of risk assessment and management that were not covered with specific guidance in the preceding version are addressed in this version with in-depth examples. The handbook is structured into two parts, whose chapters are in turn organized in a sequential order intended to facilitate a gradual and progressive introduction of the reader to risk management principles and practices. Part 1 of the handbook is dedicated to the introduction of the basic foundations of the NASA integrated risk management framework, the related fundamental risk concepts, the description of the risk management and decision processes that are to be implemented within the framework, the discussion of the risk assessment techniques that should be utilized in support of such processes, and the management and organizational interactions and interfaces that should be enabled to implement an effective integration of risk management activities within the Agency. Part 2 provides self-contained, end-to-end examples of application of the processes and techniques introduced in Part 1, in the context of both programmatic (i.e., project and/or mission related) and institutional activities.

Uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2024

NASA Risk Management Handbook: Version 2.0, Part 2

The purpose of this handbook is to provide an in-depth reference for the practice of risk management in NASA, updating the guidance offered in its original version, NASA/SP-2011-3422 (November 2011), and closely aligning the updated guidance with the current NASA Procedural Requirements for Agency Risk Management, NPR 8000.4, and the parent NASA Policy Directive for NASA Governance and Strategic Management, NPD 1000.0 (January 2020). NPD 1000.0 introduces with emphasis the concept of “Risk Leadership,” making it a fundamental tenet and pillar of the risk management culture that it advocates for the Agency. NPR 8000.4 applies this concept and establishes Risk Management (RM) requirements for the Agency as an integrated enterprise, as well as the RM requirements for portfolio elements within the enterprise. Such elements include the various programs and projects that contribute to the Agency’s objectives and the various institutional activities carried out by entities that contribute to mission support. The present version of the handbook also emphasizes the integration of risk management processes across activity and project life cycles and their coordination and interaction with day-to-day programmatic and organizational functions. Areas of application of risk assessment and management that were not covered with specific guidance in the preceding version are addressed in this version with in-depth examples. The handbook is structured into two parts, whose chapters are in turn organized in a sequential order intended to facilitate a gradual and progressive introduction of the reader to risk management principles and practices. Part 1 of the handbook is dedicated to the introduction of the basic foundations of the NASA integrated risk management framework, the related fundamental risk concepts, the description of the risk management and decision processes that are to be implemented within the framework, the discussion of the risk assessment techniques that should be utilized in support of such processes, and the management and organizational interactions and interfaces that should be enabled to implement an effective integration of risk management activities within the Agency. Part 2 provides self-contained, end-to-end examples of application of the processes and techniques introduced in Part 1, in the context of both programmatic (i.e., project and/or mission related) and institutional activities.

Risk Leadership↗
NASA NTRS2012

Bringing Together Users and Developers of Forest Biomass Maps

Forests store carbon and thus represent important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reducing uncertainty in current estimates of the amount of carbon in standing forests will improve precision of estimates of anthropogenic contributions to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to deforestation. Although satellite remote sensing has long been an important tool for mapping land cover, until recently aboveground forest biomass estimates have relied mostly on systematic ground sampling of forests. In alignment with fiscal year 2010 congressional direction, NASA has initiated work toward a carbon monitoring system (CMS) that includes both maps of forest biomass and total carbon flux estimates. A goal of the project is to ensure that the products are useful to a wide community of scientists, managers, and policy makers, as well as to carbon cycle scientists. Understanding the needs and requirements of these data users is helpful not just to the NASA CMS program but also to the entire community working on carbon-related activities. To that end, this meeting brought together a small group of natural resource managers and policy makers who use information on forests in their work with NASA scientists who are working to create aboveground forest biomass maps. These maps, derived from combining remote sensing and ground plots, aim to be more accurate than current inventory approaches when applied at local and regional scales. Meeting participants agreed that users of biomass information will look to the CMS effort not only to provide basic data for carbon or biomass measurements but also to provide data to help serve a broad range of goals, such as forest watershed management for water quality, habitat management for biodiversity and ecosystem services, and potential use for developing payments for ecosystem service projects. Participants also reminded the CMS group that potential users include not only public sector agencies and nongovernmental organizations but also the private sector because much forest acreage in the United States is privately held and needs data for forest management. Additional key outcomes identified by meeting participants include the following: (1) Priority should be given to building into the biomass product ease of use and low costs (including costs of hardware, software, and analysis requirements), (2) CMS products should also be relevant to other biomass measures for forest watershed management, habitat protection for biodiversity, and assessment of markets for ecosystem services, (3) CMS leadership should engage with the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as they establish measuring, reporting, and verification standards, and (4) CMS leadership should continue to keep sister agencies and other organizations informed as CMS develops, particularly via the agencies active in the U.S. Global Change Research Program Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group (U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and nongovernmental organizations.

Forest↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Impacts on Modeling Weather Variables and Ozone in the Southeastern US – Part 2: Sensitivity to Dry-Deposition Parameterizations

Ozone (O3) dry deposition is a major O3 sink. As a follow-up study of Huang et al. (2021), we quantify the impact of satellite soil moisture (SM) on model representations of this process when different dry-deposition parameterizations are implemented, based on which the implications for interpreting O3 air pollution levels and assessing the O3 impacts on human and ecosystem health are provided. The SM data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission are assimilated into the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model within the NASA Land Information System framework, semicoupled with Weather Research and Forecasting model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional-scale simulations covering the southeastern US. Major changes in the modeling system used include enabling the dynamic vegetation option, adding the irrigation process, and updating the scheme for the surface exchange coefficient. Two dry-deposition schemes are implemented, i.e., the Wesely scheme and a “dynamic” scheme, in the latter of which dry-deposition parameterization is coupled with photosynthesis and vegetation dynamics. It is demonstrated that, when the dynamic scheme is applied, the simulated O3 dry-deposition velocities vd and their stomatal and cuticular portions, as well as the total O3 fluxes Ft, are larger overall; vd and Ft are 2–3 times more sensitive to the SM changes due to the data assimilation (DA). Further, through case studies at two forested sites with different soil types and hydrological regimes, we highlight that, applying the Community Land Model type of SM factor controlling stomatal resistance (i.e., β factor) scheme in replacement of the Noah-type β factor scheme reduced the v(d) sensitivity to SM changes by ∼75 % at one site, while it doubled this sensitivity at the other site. Referring to multiple evaluation datasets, which may be associated with variable extents of uncertainty, the model performance of vegetation, surface fluxes, weather, and surface O3 concentrations shows mixed responses to the DA, some of which display land cover dependency. Finally, using model-derived concentration- and flux-based policy-relevant O3 metrics as well as their matching exposure–response functions, the relative biomass/crop yield losses for several types of vegetation/crops are estimated to be within a wide range of 1 %–17 %. Their sensitivities to the model's dry-deposition scheme and the implementation of SM DA are discussed.

Min Huang↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗
NASA NTRS2020

Autonomous Assessment and Predictive Capabilities for Low-Altitude Urban Flight Operations

The integration of unmanned aerial vehicles in the national airspace will introduce new vehicle types, technologies, and operational paradigms for which safety must be maintained and hazards mitigated. One approach is to attempt to design for possible hazards and unsafe incidents that can occur at different phases of flight (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight) and during ground operations. Another is to mitigate safety incidents by implementing changes to policies, procedures, regulations, and design to cover personnel, equipment, and aircraft during operations. These and other techniques, not described herein, are typically conservative or adhoc in that they reduce the likelihood of risk after safety incidents have occurred. In this work, the goal is to develop a more predictive capability to monitor and mitigate risk and hazards to safety “in-time” enough for decisions to be made. In line with NASA’s Aeronautics Mission Directorate Strategic Thrust 5 [1] (In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance), the System-Wide Safety (SWS) project under which this work falls, is developing and demonstrating innovative and safety-oriented solutions that enable modernization and aviation transformation. To that effect, this work will detail data-driven efforts on the SWS project to develop a number of safety-critical services for in-time monitoring and mitigation of hazards to low-altitude flight operations. First, hazards to these operations are identified based on previous work by NASA [2,3] and others in the aerospace industry. These hazards include (i) unsafe proximity to other vehicles, property, and people on the ground, (ii) critical system failures such as communication signal/GPS loss, unexpected propulsion system degradation, engine/power failure, and (iii) operational/environmental issues such as severe weather and gusty winds. For these hazards, safety metrics, which can be quantified and assessed are defined, models to monitor and predict them are developed, and flight test data is generated to develop, validate, and test these models, considering the complex interplay of the different hazards that define them [4-6]. In addition, the uncertainty in the non-deterministic effects that cannot be modeled nor predicted and unknown unknowns that arise after design/testing and during operations must be handled in rigorous manner. As a result, for each of the developed safety metrics, their dependencies on one another are characterized and a framework for handling the uncertainties inherent in the modeling, algorithms, and measurements required for prediction is also developed [7]. To that effect, this presentation will describe the safety metrics and services already developed and underway under the System-Wide Safety project that utilize data-driven techniques for the identification of anomalies, precursors, and trends (APTs) to monitor and mitigate hazards to safety, in-time, for urban flight operations in low-altitude airspace.

Okolo, Wendy A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Economics Model for ISRU in Support of a Mars Colony - Initial Status Report

The aim of this effort is to develop an integrated set of risk-based financial and technical models to evaluate multiple Off-Earth Mining (OEM) scenarios. This quantitative, scenario- and simulation-based tool will help identify combinations of market variables, technical parameters, and policy levers that will enable the expansion of the global economy into the solar system and return economic benefits. Human ventures in space are entering a new phase in which missions formerly driven by government agencies are now being replaced by those led by commercial enterprises - in launch, satellite deployment, resupply of the International Space Station, and space tourism. In the not-too-distant future, commercial opportunities will also include the mining of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. This investigation will examine the role of OEM in a growing space economy. (In this investigation, the term 'mining' is taken to embrace minerals, ice/water, and other in situ resources.) OEM can be the engine that drives the space economy, so it would be useful to understand what OEM market conditions and technology requirements are needed for that economy to prosper. These specific elements will be studied in the wider context of creating an economy that could ultimately support a sustainable Mars Colony. Such a colony will need in situ resources not only for its own survival, but to prosper and grow, it must create viable business ventures, essentially by fulfilling the demand for in situ resources from and on Mars. This investigation will focus on understanding the role and economic prospect for OEM associated with the Human Colonization of Mars (HCM).

architecture framework↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗