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NASA NTRS2005

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

Schonberg, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Regularization for Atmospheric Temperature Retrieval Problems

Passive remote sensing of the atmosphere is used to determine the atmospheric state. A radiometer measures microwave emissions from earth's atmosphere and surface. The radiance measured by the radiometer is proportional to the brightness temperature. This brightness temperature can be used to estimate atmospheric parameters such as temperature and water vapor content. These quantities are of primary importance for different applications in meteorology, oceanography, and geophysical sciences. Depending on the range in the electromagnetic spectrum being measured by the radiometer and the atmospheric quantities to be estimated, the retrieval or inverse problem of determining atmospheric parameters from brightness temperature might be linear or nonlinear. In most applications, the retrieval problem requires the inversion of a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind making this an ill-posed problem. The numerical solution of the retrieval problem requires the transformation of the continuous problem into a discrete problem. The ill-posedness of the continuous problem translates into ill-conditioning or ill-posedness of the discrete problem. Regularization methods are used to convert the ill-posed problem into a well-posed one. In this paper, we present some results of our work in applying different regularization techniques to atmospheric temperature retrievals using brightness temperatures measured with the SSM/T-1 sensor. Simulation results are presented which show the potential of these techniques to improve temperature retrievals. In particular, no statistical assumptions are needed and the algorithms were capable of correctly estimating the temperature profile corner at the tropopause independent of the initial guess.

Velez-Reyes, Miguel↗

NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface winds and humidity. Evaporation estimates from reanalysis and several global model experiments will also be compared to the TRMM findings and evaluated for consistency. The ability to detect regional shifts in freshwater flux over the oceans (equivalently, integrated moisture convergence) and moisture transport will be discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Flux of Impact Ejecta on the Lunar Surface from Scaling Considerations: Implications for Operational Hazards and Geomorphic Forcing

The impact cratering process has been critical to the evolution of the Moon’s surface over its geologic history and remains an important ongoing process today. Impact events have a major local effect, but also excavate ejecta particles that re-impact the lunar surface over a wide area. Quantifying the flux of ejecta to a given point on the Moon is the subject of this work. We also estimate how this flux is partitioned into different particle sizes and different ejecta velocities. Motivation: There are two main factors motivating this work. First, and most critically, is the assessment of the hazard posed by impact ejecta for future surface exploration (i.e., to infrastructure, spacesuits, etc.). LROC observations of new craters have led to the reemphasized need to consider this hazard. In fact, a hazard assessment of this type was made prior to Apollo, although some of the underlying assumptions of that work are now clearly obsolete (see [4]). We also now know much more about the impactor flux, scaling of impact events, and scaling of ejecta than was known in the 1960's, so revisiting this hazard assessment is appropriate.We note that also have recently revisited the earlier hazard estimates and independently revised them downward using an entirely different analytical approach. The second motivation is that several recent papers have argued that the flux of distal ejecta is the controlling factor in how fast the lunar surface evolves. For this reason, improving understanding of the ejecta mass flux and how the flux translates into geomorphic work is of interest. To be clear, it is obvious that the ejecta mass flux is much larger than the primary impactor mass flux – indeed, this is self-evident because the craters excavated by hypervelocity impacts are much larger than their impactors. On the other hand, the energy delivered by a given primary to the surface is larger than the sum of the energy delivered by all its associated ejecta, as required by conservation, aggravated by the fact that not all of an impactor’s kinetic energy is partitioned into ejecta excavation. If distal ejecta and secondaries control lunar geomorphic evolution, this suggests that re-impacting ejecta must more efficiently translate their energy into geomorphic work than primaries. It is also easy to imagine the relative efficiency of primary and secondary impacts to do geomorphic work varying with the size of the primary. Considering the details of this process is thus of significant interest for lunar geomorphology.

Fassett, C. I.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

Schonberg, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sinc-Galerkin estimation of diffusivity in parabolic problems

A fully Sinc-Galerkin method for the numerical recovery of spatially varying diffusion coefficients in linear partial differential equations is presented. Because the parameter recovery problems are inherently ill-posed, an output error criterion in conjunction with Tikhonov regularization is used to formulate them as infinite-dimensional minimization problems. The forward problems are discretized with a sinc basis in both the spatial and temporal domains thus yielding an approximate solution which displays an exponential convergence rate and is valid on the infinite time interval. The minimization problems are then solved via a quasi-Newton/trust region algorithm. The L-curve technique for determining an approximate value of the regularization parameter is briefly discussed, and numerical examples are given which show the applicability of the method both for problems with noise-free data as well as for those whose data contains white noise.

Smith, Ralph C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Near-Earth Object Astrometric Interferometry

Using astrometric interferometry on near-Earth objects (NEOs) poses many interesting and difficult challenges. Poor reflectance properties and potentially no significant active emissions lead to NEOs having intrinsically low visual magnitudes. Using worst case estimates for signal reflection properties leads to NEOs having visual magnitudes of 27 and higher. Today the most sensitive interferometers in operation have limiting magnitudes of 20 or less. The main reason for this limit is due to the atmosphere, where turbulence affects the light coming from the target, limiting the sensitivity of the interferometer. In this analysis, the interferometer designs assume no atmosphere, meaning they would be placed at a location somewhere in space. Interferometer configurations and operational uncertainties are looked at in order to parameterize the requirements necessary to achieve measurements of low visual magnitude NEOs. This analysis provides a preliminary estimate of what will be required in order to take high resolution measurements of these objects using interferometry techniques.

Werner, Martin R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mission Functionality for Deflecting Earth-Crossing Asteroids/Comets

Park, Sang-Young↗

NASA NTRS2013

Biological Effects of Particles with Very High Energy Deposition on Mammalian Cells Utilizing the Brookhaven Tandem Van de Graaff Accelerator

High LET radiation from GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) consisting mainly of high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei and secondary protons and neutrons, and secondaries from protons in SPE (Solar Particle Event) pose a major health risk to astronauts due to induction of DNA damage and oxidative stress. Experiments with high energy particles mimicking the space environment for estimation of radiation risk are being performed at NASA Space Radiation Laboratory at BNL. Experiments with low energy particles comparing to high energy particles of similar LET are of interest for investigation of the role of track structure on biological effects. For this purpose, we report results utilizing the Tandem Van de Graaff accelerator at BNL. The primary objective of our studies is to elucidate the influence of high vs low energy deposition on track structure, delta ray contribution and resulting biological responses. These low energy ions are of special relevance as these energies may occur following absorption through the spacecraft and shielding materials in human tissues and nuclear fragments produced in tissues by high energy protons and neutrons. This study will help to verify the efficiency of these low energy particles and better understand how various cell types respond to them.

Saha, Janapriya↗

NASA NTRS2017

Determination of the Risk of Radiation-Associated Circulatory and Cancer Disease Mortality in a NASA Early Astronaut Cohort

Of the many possible health challenges posed during extended exploratory missions to space, the effects of space radiation on cardiovascular disease and cancer are of particular concern. There are unique challenges to estimating those radiation risks; care and appropriate and rigorous methodology should be applied when considering small cohorts such as the NASA astronaut population. The objective of this work was to determine if there was sufficient evidence for excess risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer in early NASA astronaut cohorts. NASA astronauts in selection groups 1-7 were chosen; this relatively homogeneous cohort consists of 73 white males, who unlike today's astronauts, maintained similar smoking and drinking habits to the general US population, and have published radiation doses. The participants flew in space on missions Mercury through Shuttle and received space radiation doses between 0-74.1 milligrays. Cause of death information was obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) program at NASA Johnson Space Center. Mortality was compared with the US male population. Trends of mortality with dose were assessed using a logistic model, fitted by maximum likelihood. Only 32 (43.84 percent) of the 73 early astronauts have died. Standard mortality ratios (SMRs) for cancer (n=7, SMR=43.4, 95 percent CI 17.8, 84.9), all circulatory disease (n=7, SMR=33.2, 95 percent CI 13.7, 65.0), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) (n=5, SMR=40.1, 95 percent CI 13.2, 89.4) were significantly lower than for the US white male population. For cerebrovascular disease, the upper confidence interval for SMR included 100, indicating it was not significantly different from the US population (n=2, SMR = 77.0, 95 percent CI 9.4, 268.2). The power of the study is low and remains below 10 percent even when risks 10 times those reported in the literature are assumed. Due to small sample size, there is currently insufficient statistical power to evaluate space radiation exposure effects on mortality in NASA astronauts. In addition to a comprehensive longitudinal study of NASA astronauts, a research strategy of low dose epidemiology data integration with cell and animal studies should be utilized for space radiation risk assessment in the astronauts.

Elgart, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Radiation Exposure and Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer in Early NASA Astronauts: Space for Exploration

Elgart, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Bayesian Estimation of Precipitation from Satellite Passive Microwave Observations Using Combined Radar-Radiometer Retrievals

Precipitation estimation from satellite passive microwave radiometer observations is a problem that does not have a unique solution that is insensitive to errors in the input data. Traditionally, to make this problem well posed, a priori information derived from physical models or independent, high-quality observations is incorporated into the solution. In the present study, a database of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures is constructed to serve as a priori information in a passive microwave radiometer algorithm. The precipitation profiles are derived from a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar radiometer algorithm, and the brightness temperatures are TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) observed. Because the observed brightness temperatures are consistent with those derived from a radiative transfer model embedded in the combined algorithm, the precipitation brightness temperature database is considered to be physically consistent. The database examined here is derived from the analysis of a month-long record of TRMM data that yields more than a million profiles of precipitation and associated brightness temperatures. These profiles are clustered into a tractable number of classes based on the local sea surface temperature, a radiometer-based estimate of the echo-top height (the height beyond which the reflectivity drops below 17 dBZ), and brightness temperature principal components. For each class, the mean precipitation profile, brightness temperature principal components, and probability of occurrence are determined. The precipitation brightness temperature database supports a radiometer-only algorithm that incorporates a Bayesian estimation methodology. In the Bayesian framework, precipitation estimates are weighted averages of the mean precipitation values corresponding to the classes in the database, with the weights being determined according to the similarity between the observed brightness temperature principal components and the brightness temperature principal components of the classes. Because the classes are stratified by the sea surface temperature and the echo-top-height estimator, the number of classes that are considered for retrieval is significantly smaller than the total number of classes, making the algorithm computationally efficient. The radiometer-only algorithm is applied to TMI observations, and precipitation estimates are compared with combined TRMM precipitation radar (PR) TMI reference estimates. The TMI-only algorithm, supported by the empirically derived database, produces estimates that are more consistent with the reference values than the precipitation estimates from the version-6 TRMM facility TMI algorithm. Cloud-resolving model simulations are used to assign a latent heating profile to each precipitation profile in the empirically derived database, making it possible to estimate latent heating using the radiometer-only algorithm. Although the evaluation of latent heating estimates in this study is preliminary, because realistic conditional probability distribution functions are attached to latent heating structures in the algorithm s database, a generally positive impact on latent heating estimation from passive microwave observations is expected.

Grecu, Mircea↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Total Variation Majorization Minimization (TV-MM) Approach to Radiometer Brightness Temperature Gridding and Reconstruction

This paper presents the implementation of an algorithm to enhance the image resolution of the Earth's surface brightness temperature (T B ) data measured by radiometers such as the one onboard of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. A key step in radiometer T B processing is the conversion of the swath-based calibrated antenna temperature (T A ) measurements to the Level 3 Earth-centered grid. The simplest algorithm to transform this data from swath to gridded format is called drop-in-the-bucket which simply averages surrounding noisy T A samples to form a T B value at the gridded location. This method reduces noise, however produces low resolution products. To obtain a higher resolution product, SMAP uses other techniques such the Backus-Gilbert (BG) algorithm, which is the conventional method used in microwave radiometry. Although this method performs the required interpolation, it is not effective in denoising and removing blurring effects due to antenna filtering of the radiometer image data. Our motivation for this development is to further improve the resolution through post-processing of the radiometer T B image, a highly cost-effective method of image enhancement. The approach adapted in this work is based on the minimization of the Total Variation (TV) regularized objective function that is used extensively in solving general ill-posed linear inverse problems in image processing. Since the TV-based objective function is convex but not everywhere differentiable, there exists many numerical algorithms that can estimate the solution and the one selected for this work is called Majorization- Minimization (MM). By applying this algorithm, simulation experiments were performed based on synthetic data from the Geophysical model as well as real SMAP data to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique. Results were then compared against the BG method.

Wing Lee↗

NASA NTRS2019

Towards Resilient Autonomous Navigation of Drones

Robots and particularly drones are especially useful in exploring extreme environments that pose hazards to humans. To ensure safe operations in these situations, usually perceptually degraded and without good GNSS, it is critical to have a reliable and robust state estimation solution. The main body of literature in robot state estimation focuses on developing complex algorithms favoring accuracy. Typically, these approaches rely on a strong underlying assumption: the main estimation engine will not fail during operation. In contrast, we propose an architecture that pursues robustness in state estimation by considering redundancy and heterogeneity in both sensing and estimation algorithms. The architecture is designed to expect and detect failures and adapt the behavior of the system to ensure safety. To this end, we present HeRO (Heterogeneous Redundant Odometry): a stack of estimation algorithms running in parallel supervised by a resiliency logic. This logic carries out three main functions: a) perform confidence tests both in data quality and algorithm health; b) re-initialize those algorithms that might be malfunctioning; c) generate a smooth state estimate by multiplexing the inputs based on their quality. The state and quality estimates are used by the guidance and control modules to adapt the mobility behaviors of the system. The validation and utility of the approach are shown with real experiments on a ying robot for the use case of autonomous exploration of subterranean environments, with particular results from the STIX event of the DARPA Subterranean Challenge.

Agha-mohammadi, Ali-akbar↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Convective precipitation retrievals from space-borne dual frequency (Ka- and W-band) radar observations

The 2017 Decadal Survey highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions that led to the inclusion aerosols (A), clouds, convection, and precipitation (CCP) in the list of designated observables (DOs) to be pursued within the decade following the survey. Multiple observing system architectures were considered during the NASA A-CCP study, and dual frequency Ka-W band radars have been identified as components of the most likely architectures due to their ability to significantly contribute to the achievement of the science objectives and their synergy with other essential instruments. We present an algorithm to estimate convective precipitation from dual frequency, Ka- and W-band, observations applicable to the observing system architectures considered in the A-CCP study. The algorithm is based on the radar profiling algorithm used within the operational NASA GPM combined algorithm but features an additional module that makes the retrieval problem well-posed in cases of severe attenuation and potential loss of signal below the freezing level. The additional module is developed from GPM combined retrievals and consists of a procedure that generates an ensemble of potential retrievals consistent with the portions of the Ka-band and W-band observation profiles above the noise level. The ensemble solution is refined based on estimates of Path Integrated Attenuation (PIA) from the Surface Reference Technique (SRT) and radiometric observations.

Mircea Grecu↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Near-Earth Meteoroid Flux, Speed Distribution, and Uncertainty

Meteoroids are known to pose a threat to spacecraft; they can puncture components, disturb spacecraft attitude, and possibly create secondary electrical effects. Accurate environment models are therefore critical for mitigating meteoroid-related risks. While there are several meteoroid environment models available for assessing spacecraft risk, the uncertainties associated with these models are not well understood. Because meteoroid properties are derived from indirect observations such as meteors and impact craters, the uncertainty in the meteoroid flux is potentially quite large. We combine existing meteoroid flux measurements with new radar and optical meteor data to improve our characterization of the meteoroid flux onto the Earth and its velocity distribution. We use data extracted from the NASA all-sky network, the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory, and the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. We improve our characterization of the observed meteoroid speed distribution by incorporating modern descriptions of the ionization efficiency (e.g., Thomas et al., 2016). We also present estimates of the uncertainties associated with our meteoroid flux distribution. Finally, we discuss the implications for spacecraft. Our model is constrained by the cratering rate on the space-facing surface of LDEF, and thus the risk posed to spacecraft by meteoroid-induced physical damage is the least uncertain component of our model. Other sources of risk, however, may vary. For instance, a lower average meteoroid speed would require a higher meteoroid mass flux in order to match the LDEF crater counts, leading to higher predicted rates of attitude disturbances.

Moorhead, Althea↗