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At least 181 records · Page 10

Relativistic electron precipitation enhancements near the outer edge of the radiation belt

Characteristics of relativistic electron precipitation bursts observed by the Heavy Ion Large Telescope (HILT) experiment onboard the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Partical Explorer (SAMPEX) satellite were examined. Relatively narrow, persitent, latitudinal bands of precipitation with time scales of 10 to approximately 30 sec near the outer edge of the radiation belt which develop and decay with a time scale of a few hours are reported. Acceleration processes more effective than the usual radial diffusion process or scattering process would be needed to explain this strong precipitation band phenomenon. Another prominent signature is microbursts with a time scale down to a few hundred milliseconds. It is suggested that these microbursts are due to wave-particle interaction involving a relaxation-oscillator type of mechanism.

Nakamura, R.↗

Utilizing the Vertical Variability of Precipitation to Improve Radar QPE

Characteristics of the melting layer and raindrop size distribution can be exploited to further improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Using dual-polarimetric radar and disdrometers, we found that the characteristic size of raindrops reaching the ground in stratiform precipitation often varies linearly with the depth of the melting layer. As a result, a radar rainfall estimator was formulated using D(sub m) that can be employed by polarimetric as well as dual-frequency radars (e.g., space-based radars such as the GPM DPR), to lower the bias and uncertainty of conventional single radar parameter rainfall estimates by as much as 20%. Polarimetric radar also suffers from issues associated with sampling the vertical distribution of precipitation. Hence, we characterized the vertical profile of polarimetric parameters (VP3)-a radar manifestation of the evolving size and shape of hydrometeors as they fall to the ground-on dual-polarimetric rainfall estimation. The VP3 revealed that the profile of ZDR in stratiform rainfall can bias dual-polarimetric rainfall estimators by as much as 50%, even after correction for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). The VP3 correction technique that we developed can improve operational dual-polarimetric rainfall estimates by 13% beyond that offered by a VPR correction alone.

Precipitation↗

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Spatial and Temporal Energy Characterization of Precipitating Electrons for the January 10th, 1997 Magnetic Cloud Event

The January 10-11, 1997 magnetic cloud event provided a rare opportunity to study auroral energy deposition under varying but intense IMF conditions. The Wind spacecraft located about 100 RE upstream monitored the IMF and plasma parameters during the passing of the cloud. The Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observed the aurora[ precipitation during the first encounter of the cloud with Earth's magnetosphere and during several subsequent substorm events. The UVI has the unique capability of measuring the energy flux and characteristic energy of the precipitating electrons through the use of narrow band filters that distinguish short and long wavelength molecular nitrogen emissions. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the precipitating electron energy will be discussed beginning with the inception of the event at the Earth early January 1 Oth and continuing through the subsidence of auroral activity on January 11th.

Spann, J. F., Jr.↗

Relation between surface slip topography and stress corrosion cracking in Ti-8 wt % Al

The deformation behavior of Ti-8 wt % Al has been investigated in an inert environment (air), and an aggressive environment (salt water). Details of surface slip geometry were examined by high resolution surface replicas at various stages of deformation in both environments. Specimens aged to contain a fine dispersion of Ti3Al precipitates failed by subcritical crack growth in salt water, whereas specimens in the single phase condition showed no effects of environment on the yield or fracture characteristics. The Ti3Al precipitates produce little change in strength level or slip character compared to the single phase alloy, and there is no evidence of any effects of environment on the character of surface slip. Rather, the presence of trenches along slip bands on the surface of aged specimens suggest that the specific effect of the Ti3Al precipitates is to render the surface slip steps chemically active relative to the surrounding matrix by slip induced dissolution of the particles.

Boyd, J. D.↗

A Melting Layer Model for Passive/Active Microwave Remote Sensing Applications: Simulation of TRMM Observations - Part 2

The one-dimensional, steady-state melting layer model developed in Part I of this study is used to calculate both the microphysical and radiative properties of melting precipitation, based upon the computed concentrations of snow and graupel just above the freezing level at applicable horizontal gridpoints of 3-dimensional cloud resolving model simulations. The modified 3-dimensional distributions of precipitation properties serve as input to radiative transfer calculations of upwelling radiances and radar extinction/reflectivities at the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) frequencies, respectively. At the resolution of the cloud resolving model grids (approx. 1 km), upwelling radiances generally increase if mixed-phase precipitation is included in the model atmosphere. The magnitude of the increase depends upon the optical thickness of the cloud and precipitation, as well as the scattering characteristics of ice-phase precipitation aloft. Over the set of cloud resolving model simulations utilized in this study, maximum radiance increases of 43, 28, 18, and 10 K are simulated at 10.65, 19.35 GHz, 37.0, and 85.5 GHz, respectively. The impact of melting on TMI-measured radiances is determined not only by the physics of the melting particles but also by the horizontal extent of the melting precipitation, since the lower-frequency channels have footprints that extend over 10''s of kilometers. At TMI resolution, the maximum radiance increases are 16, 15, 12, and 9 K at the same frequencies. Simulated PR extinction and reflectivities in the melting layer can increase dramatically if mixed-phase precipitation is included, a result consistent with previous studies. Maximum increases of 0.46 (-2 dB) in extinction optical depth and 5 dBZ in reflectivity are simulated based upon the set of cloud resolving model simulations.

Olson, William S.↗

A high-resolution unified observational data product of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States for 2004–2017

Deep convection possesses markedly distinct properties at different spatiotemporal scales. We present an original high-resolution (4 km, hourly) unified data product of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains and examine their climatological characteristics from 2004 to 2017. The data product is produced by applying an updated Flexible Object Tracker algorithm to hourly satellite brightness temperature, radar reflectivity, and precipitation datasets. Analysis of the data product shows that MCSs are much larger and longer-lasting than IDC, but IDC occurs about 100 times more frequently than MCSs, with a mean convective intensity comparable to that of MCSs. Hence both MCS and IDC are essential contributors to precipitation east of the Rocky Mountains, although their precipitation shows significantly different spatiotemporal characteristics. IDC precipitation concentrates in summer in the Southeast with a peak in the late afternoon, while MCS precipitation is significant in all seasons, especially for spring and summer in the Great Plains. The spatial distribution of MCS precipitation amounts varies by season, while diurnally, MCS precipitation generally peaks during nighttime except in the Southeast. Potential uncertainties and limitations of the data product are also discussed. The data product is useful for investigating the atmospheric environments and physical processes associated with different types of convective systems; quantifying the impacts of convection on hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, and severe weather events; and evaluating and improving the representation of convective processes in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Scientific/Technical Report Rapid Design and Manufacturing of High-Performance Materials for Turbine Blades

This research demonstrated the concept of carbide precipitation-strengthened refractory high entropy alloys (RHEA). The advantage of a precipitation strengthened alloy is all phases are in thermodynamic equilibrium promoting microstructural stability, and consequently retention of properties at elevated temperatures. Additionally, as with any precipitation strengthened – or age hardened alloy, components can be heat-treated after manufacturing to manipulate the microstructure and optimize properties for performance. This is an advantage of the precipitation strengthened alloys over composites and ceramics materials, where the microstructure and properties are essentially fixed upon the initial materials manufacturing stage. High throughput (HT), multi-scale computer modeling was used to identifying novel RHEA compositions with desired characteristics needed for precipitation strengthening. The results showed that carbides precipitated and consequently, the strength of the alloys (measured in compression) increased after heat-treatment, which is the desired effect. The project also demonstrated the feasibility of producing articles from RHEA by additive manufacturing (AM).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Rapid Design and Manufacturing of High-Performance Materials for Turbine Blades

This research demonstrated the concept of carbide precipitation-strengthened refractory high entropy alloys (RHEA). The advantage of a precipitation strengthened alloy is all phases are in thermodynamic equilibrium promoting microstructural stability, and consequently retention of properties at elevated temperatures. Additionally, as with any precipitation strengthened – or age hardened - alloy, components can be heat-treated after manufacturing to manipulate the microstructure and optimize properties for performance. This is an advantage of the precipitation strengthened alloys over composites and ceramics materials, where the microstructure and properties are essentially fixed upon the initial materials manufacturing stage. High throughput (HT), multi-scale computer modeling was used to identifying novel RHEA compositions with desired characteristics needed for precipitation strengthening. Designs were validated by producing small ingots via are melting. The results showed that carbides precipitated and consequently, the strength of the alloys (measured in compression) increased after heat-treatment, which is the desired effect. The project also demonstrated the feasibility of producing articles from RHEA by additive manufacturing (AM). Electron beam melting (EBM) and laser direct energy deposition (L-DED) additive manufacturing methods, were explored with various processing parameters were interrogated for both methods. Sound (crack-free and dense) precipitation strengthened RHEA samples were produced via EDM AM, demonstrating the feasibility of the concept.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Error Characteristics and Scale Dependence of Current Satellite Precipitation Estimates Products in Hydrological Modeling

Satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) are promising alternatives to gauge observations for hydrological applications (e.g., streamflow simulation), especially in remote areas with sparse observation networks. However, the existing SPEs products are still biased due to imperfections in retrieval algorithms, data sources and post-processing, which makes the effective use of SPEs a challenge, especially at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a distributed hydrological model to evaluate the simulated discharge from eight quasi-global SPEs at different spatial scales and explored their potential scale effects of SPEs on a cascade of basins ranging from approximately 100 to 130,000 km 2 . The results indicate that, regardless of the difference in the accuracy of various SPEs, there is indeed a scale effect in their application in discharge simulation. Specifically, when the catchment area is larger than 20,000 km2, the overall performance of discharge simulation emerges an ascending trend with the increase of catchment area due to the river routing and spatial averaging. Whereas below 20,000 km 2 , the discharge simulation capability of the SPEs is more randomized and relies heavily on local precipitation accuracy. Our study also highlights the need to evaluate SPEs or other precipitation products (e.g., merge product or reanalysis data) not only at the limited station scale, but also at a finer scale depending on the practical application requirements. Here we have verified that the existing SPEs are scale-dependent in hydrological simulation, and they are not enough to be directly used in very fine scale distributed hydrological simulations (e.g., flash flood). More advanced retrieval algorithms, data sources and bias correction methods are needed to further improve the overall quality of SPEs.

DTVGM↗

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗

Plasma injection at synchronous orbit and spatial and temporal auroral morphology

Analysis of ATS 5 particle spectrograms and simultaneous meridian-scanning photometer data obtained at the base of the ATS field line has revealed systematic relationships between temporal and spatial auroral morphology and particle-injection events. The details of these relationships depend on previous injection events, the local time of the observatory with respect to current-injection events, and the extent and magnitude of current injections. A persistent zone of weak aurora is related to steady plasma-sheet drizzle, and the equatorward edge of this aurora delineates field lines threading the inner edge of the plasma sheet. Auroras associated with injection events superimpose on this preexisting pattern, with the lowest latitude of new precipitation depending on local time. In general, plasma energization is not required between the equatorial plane and the ionosphere to account for observed auroral intensities. The data indicate occasional occurrence of enhanced loss-cone fluxes, suggesting low-altitude field-aligned acceleration. A summary figure shows how various characteristic auroral-precipitation regions are related to the shape, extent, and orientation of the substorm injection boundary and to the subsequent drift paths of injected plasma.

Eather, R. H.↗

Study of inverted-V auroral precipitation events

The macroscopic properties of inverted V events measured by the Atmospheric Explorer-D satellite are described, along with the spatial distributions and the extents of individual events. The satellite carried 19 detectors, each comprising a cylindrical electrostatic analyzer followed by an electron multiplier. A total of 430 events was recorded, none of which occurred in cusp precipitation. The observed characteristics of the inverted V events are compared with particle distribution properties predicted by a double layer mechanism, an electrostatic shock model, extended field-aligned potential, and anomalous resistivity. Widespread, continuous electric fields were found parallel to the magnetic field lines, and anomalous resistivity was determined as the most favorable mechanism for producing the electron precipitation structure observed.

Hoffman, R. A.↗

Impact of the initial specification of moisture and vertical motion on precipitation forecasts with a mesoscale model Implications for a satellite mesoscale data base

Using a numerical mesoscale model, four simulations were performed to determine the effects of suppressing the initial mesoscale information in the moisture and wind fields on the precipitation forecasts. The simulations included a control forecast 12-h simulation that began at 1200 GMT March 1982 and three experiment simulations with modifications to the moisture and vertical motion fields incorporated at 1800 GMT. The forecasts from 1800 GMT were compared to the second half of the control forecast. It was found that, compared to the control forecast, suppression of the moisture and/or wind initial field(s) produces a drier forecast. However, the characteristics of the precipitation forecasts of the experiments were not different enough to conclude that either mesoscale moisture or mesoscale vertical velocity at the initial time are more important for producing a forecast closer to that of the control.

Mlynczak, Pamela E.↗

Electromagnetic Waves and Bursty Electron Acceleration: Implications from Freja

Dispersive Alfven wave activity is identified in four dayside auroral oval events measured by the Freja satellite. The events are characterized by ion injection, bursty electron precipitation below about I keV, transverse ion heating and broadband extremely low frequency (ELF) emissions below the lower hybrid cutoff frequency (a few kHz). The broadband emissions are observed to become more electrostatic towards higher frequencies. Large-scale density depletions/cavities, as determined by the Langmuir probe measurements, and strong electrostatic emissions are often observed simultaneously. A correlation study has been carried out between the E- and B-field fluctuations below 64 Hz (the dc instrument's upper threshold) and the characteristics of the precipitating electrons. This study revealed that the energization of electrons is indeed related to the broadband ELF emissions and that the electrostatic component plays a predominant role during very active magnetospheric conditions. Furthermore, the effect of the ELF electromagnetic emissions on the larger scale field-aligned current systems has been investigated, and it is found that such an effect cannot be detected. Instead, the Alfvenic activity creates a local region of field-aligned currents. It is suggested that dispersive Alfven waves set up these local field-aligned current regions and in turn trigger more electrostatic emissions during certain conditions. In these regions ions are transversely heated, and large-scale density depletions/cavities may be created during especially active periods.

Andersson, Laila↗

Extreme Precipitation Over the Southern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

The southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (SSTP) is one of the rainiest regions in the world where geological hazards caused by extreme precipitation often occur. This study investigates the characteristics and mechanisms of extreme precipitation over SSTP from June to September during 2001–2020 using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observation. The extreme precipitation days are defined as the days with top 5% of regional-mean daily precipitation over SSTP in this period, which has an average precipitation of 27.2 mm/d. Averaging over the extreme precipitation days, precipitation peaks at an altitude of about 300 m, coinciding with the climatological maximum precipitation, but with a much larger value of 37.2 mm/d than the climatology of 11.9 mm/d. Composite analysis of circulations on extreme days reveals significant circulation anomalies in both the lower and upper troposphere. Specifically, the lower-tropospheric circulations are characterized by significant westerly anomalies over northern India, and the upper-tropospheric circulations are characterized by northerly anomalies over the central Tibetan Plateau, which are statistically independent. The lower-tropospheric westerly anomalies blowing toward SSTP are blocked by the topography, favoring extreme precipitation over SSTP. The upper-tropospheric northerly anomalies, on the other hand, correspond to anomalous northeasterlies north of SSTP in the middle troposphere and southeasterlies to the south in the lower troposphere, and the convergence of these circulation anomalies favors extreme precipitation over SSTP. Lastly, the lower-tropospheric westerly and upper-tropospheric northerly anomalies, respectively, correspond to less precipitation over the South Asian monsoon region and the Tibetan Plateau.

Extreme precipitation, Tibetan Plateau↗

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗