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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Device Parameters for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells from Electronic Structure Calculations to Reproduce Experiment.

Given that improvements to the power-conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have slowed in recent years, a means to accurately predict the device parameters yielded by trial dyes in silico, without having to synthesize them, would be extremely valuable to speed up the design process. Currently, the best-performing methods of calculating device parameters rely on a set of experimentally determined kinetic coefficients. In practice, it is very difficult to measure these kinetic parameters accurately, limiting the overall accuracy of such predictive methods. This work proposes a model to obtain key parameters such as J(SC), V-OC, and PCE using only the results from density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT calculations, noting that rates of electron-transfer steps are ultimately linked to the electronic structure of the dye center dot center dot center dot TiO2 working electrode. Six organic DSSC dyes from dissimilar chemical classes (L0, L1, L2, WS-2, WS-92, and C281) were chosen to demonstrate the power of this approach. Their a priori known experimentally determined device performance metrics served to validate our predictions. The greatest absolute error in our predicted PCE values was 0.36% relative to the experiment, while the greatest fractional error was 0.042. This indicates that the proposed model offers a dramatic improvement on previous predictive methods for DSSC device parameters, both in accuracy and in consistency. Moreover, such a predictive model has great potential to be applied to other photovoltaic applications, further enabling the design of novel, highly efficient photoactive materials.

density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Modeling to Enhance Spectrophotometry Measurements—Overcoming Dynamic Range Limitations for Remote Monitoring of Neptunium

A robust hierarchical model has been demonstrated for monitoring a wide range of neptunium concentrations (0.75–890 mM) and varying temperatures (10–80 °C) using chemometrics and feature selection. The visible–near infrared electronic absorption spectrum (400–1700 nm) of monocharged neptunyl dioxocation (Np(V) = NpO2+) includes many bands, which have molar absorption coefficients that differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude. The shape, position, and intensity of these bands differ with chemical interactions and changing temperature. These challenges make traditional quantification by univariate methods unfeasible. Measuring Np(V) concentration over several orders of magnitude would typically necessitate cells with varying path length, optical switches, and/or multiple spectrophotometers. Alternatively, the differences in the molar extinction coefficients for multiple absorption bands can be used to quantify Np(V) concentration over 3 orders of magnitude with a single optical path length (1 mm) and a hierarchical multivariate model. In this work, principal component analysis was used to distinguish the concentration regime of the sample, directing it to the relevant partial least squares regression submodels. Each submodel was optimized with unique feature selection filters that were selected by a genetic algorithm to enhance predictions. Through this approach, the percent root mean square error of prediction values were ≤1.05% for Np(V) concentrations and ≤4% for temperatures. This approach may be applied to other nuclear fuel cycle and environmental applications requiring real-time spectroscopic measurements over a wide range of conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Neutron Mean Life and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We explore the effect of neutron lifetime and its uncertainty on standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). BBN describes the cosmic production of the light nuclides, 1H, D, 3H+3He, 4He, and 7Li+7Be, in the first minutes of cosmic time. The neutron mean life τn has two roles in modern BBN calculations: (1) it normalizes the matrix element for weak n↔p interconversions, and (2) it sets the rate of free neutron decay after the weak interactions freeze-out. We review the history of the interplay between τn measurements and BBN, and present a study of the sensitivity of the light element abundances to the modern neutron lifetime measurements. We find that τn uncertainties dominate the predicted 4He error budget, but these theory errors remain smaller than the uncertainties in 4He observations, even with the dispersion in recent neutron lifetime measurements. For the other light element predictions, τn contributes negligibly to their error budget. Turning the problem around, we combine present BBN and cosmic microwave background (CMB) determinations of the cosmic baryon density to predict a “cosmologically preferred” mean life of τn(BBN+CMB)=870±16s, which is consistent with experimental mean life determinations. We show that if future astronomical and cosmological helium observations can reach an uncertainty of σobs(Yp)=0.001 in the 4He mass fraction Yp, this could begin to discriminate between the mean life determinations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial Neural Network Models for Octane Number and Octane Sensitivity: A Quantitative Structure Property Relationship Approach to Fuel Design

Octane sensitivity (OS), defined as the research octane number (RON) minus the motor octane number (MON) of a fuel, has gained interest among researchers due to its effect on knocking conditions in internal combustion engines. Compounds with a high OS enable higher efficiencies, especially within advanced compression ignition engines. RON/MON must be experimentally tested to determine OS, requiring time, funding, and specialized equipment. Thus, predictive models trained with existing experimental data and molecular descriptors (via quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs)) would allow for the preemptive screening of compounds prior to performing these experiments. Here, the present work proposes two methods for predicting the OS of a given compound: using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained with QSPR descriptors to predict RON and MON individually to compute OS (derived octane sensitivity (dOS)), and using ANNs trained with QSPR descriptors to directly predict OS. Twenty-five ANNs were trained for both RON and MON and their test sets achieved an overall 6.4% and 5.2% error, respectively. Twenty-five additional ANNs were trained for both dOS and OS; dOS calculations were found to have 15.3% error while predicting OS directly resulted in 9.9% error. A chemical analysis of the top QSPR descriptors for RON/MON and OS is conducted, highlighting desirable structural features for high-performing molecules and offering insight into the inner mathematical workings of ANNs; such chemical interpretations study the interconnections between structural features, descriptors, and fuel performance showing that connectivity, structural diversity, and atomic hybridization consistently drive fuel performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Logical error rates for the surface code under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions

With fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) on the horizon, it is critical to understand sources of logical errors in plausible hardware implementations of quantum error-correcting codes. Detailed error modeling of computational instructions on particular FTQC architectures will enable the better prediction of error propagation in FT-encoded quantum circuits while revealing where greater attention is needed in hardware design. In this work, we consider logical error rates for the surface code implemented on a hypothetical grid-based trapped-ion quantum charge-coupled device architecture. Specifically, we construct logical channels for the idling surface code and examine its diamond error under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions. We include the coherent dephasing noise that is known to accumulate during physical qubit idling and transport in these systems, determining idling and transport durations using the time-resolved output of an open-source trapped-ion surface code compiler. To estimate expectation values of logical Pauli observables following hardware circuits containing non-Clifford sources of noise, we utilize a Monte Carlo technique to sample from an underlying quasiprobability distribution of Clifford circuits that we independently simulate in a phase-sensitive fashion. We verify error suppression up to code distance 𝑑 = 11 at coherent dephasing rates near and below those of current-generation trapped-ion quantum computers and find that logical error rates align with those of analogous fully stochastic simulations in this regime. Exploring higher dephasing rates at 𝑑 = 3−5, we find evidence for growing coherent rotations about all three logical Pauli axes, increased diagonal logical error process matrix elements relative to those of stochastic simulations, and a reduced dephasing rate threshold. Overall, our work paves a way toward realistic hardware emulation of small fault-tolerant quantum processes, e.g., members of an FTQC instruction set.

Quantum benchmarking↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemometrics and Experimental Design for the Quantification of Nitrate Salts in Nitric Acid: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Absorption Analysis

Implementing remote, real-time spectroscopic monitoring of radiochemical processing streams in hot cell environments requires efficiency and simplicity. The success of optical spectroscopy for the quantification of species in chemical systems highly depends on representative training sets and suitable validation sets. Selecting a training set (i.e., calibration standards) to build multivariate regression models is both time- and resource-consuming using standard one-factor-at-a-time approaches. This study describes the use of experimental design to generate spectral training sets and a validation set for the quantification of sodium nitrate (0–1 M) and nitric acid (0.1–10 M) using the near-infrared water band centered at 1440 nm. Partial least squares regression models were built from training sets generated by both D- and I-optimal experimental designs and a one-factor-at-a-time approach. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by comparing the bias and standard error of prediction for statistical significance. D- and I-optimal designs reduced the number of samples required to build regression models compared with one-factor-at-a-time while also improving performance. Models must be confirmed against a validation sample set when minimizing the number of samples in the training set. The D-optimal design performed the best when considering both performance and efficiency by improving predictive capability and reducing number of samples in the training set by 64% compared with the one-factor-at-a-time approach. The experimental design approach objectively selects calibration and validation spectral data sets based on statistical criterion to optimize performance and minimize resources.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

An initial investigation of accuracy required for the identification of small molecules in complex samples using quantum chemical calculated NMR chemical shifts

The majority of primary and secondary metabolites in nature have yet to be identified, representing a major challenge for metabolomics studies that currently require reference libraries from analyses of authentic compounds. Using currently available analytical methods, complete chemical characterization of metabolomes is infeasible for both technical and economic reasons. For example, unambiguous identification of metabolites is limited by the availability of authentic chemical standards, which, for the majority of molecules, do not exist. Computationally predicted or calculated data are a viable solution to expand the currently limited metabolite reference libraries, if such methods are shown to be sufficiently accurate. For example, determining nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy spectra in silico has shown promise in the identification and delineation of metabolite structures. Many researchers have been taking advantage of density functional theory (DFT), a computationally inexpensive yet reputable method for the prediction of carbon and proton NMR spectra of metabolites. However, such methods are expected to have some error in predicted 13 >C and 1 H NMR spectra with respect to experimentally measured values. This leads us to the question–what accuracy is required in predicted 13 C and 1 H NMR chemical shifts for confident metabolite identification? Using the set of 11,716 small molecules found in the Human Metabolome Database (HMDB), we simulated both experimental and theoretical NMR chemical shift databases. We investigated the level of accuracy required for identification of metabolites in simulated pure and impure samples by matching predicted chemical shifts to experimental data. We found 90% or more of molecules in simulated pure samples can be successfully identified when errors of 1 H and 13 C chemical shifts in water are below 0.6 and 7.1 ppm, respectively, and below 0.5 and 4.6 ppm in chloroform solvation, respectively. In simulated complex mixtures, as the complexity of the mixture increased, greater accuracy of the calculated chemical shifts was required, as expected. However, if the number of molecules in the mixture is known, e.g., when NMR is combined with MS and sample complexity is low, the likelihood of confident molecular identification increased by 90%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

General Protocol for the Accurate Prediction of Molecular 13 C/ 1 H NMR Chemical Shifts via Machine Learning Augmented DFT

An accurate prediction of NMR chemical shifts at affordable computational cost is very important for different types of structural assignments in experimental studies. Density functional theory (DFT) and gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) are two of the most popular computational methods for NMR calculation, yet they often fail to resolve ambiguities in structural assignments. In this work, we present a new method that uses machine learning (ML) techniques (DFT + ML) that significantly increases the accuracy of 13 C/ 1 H NMR chemical shift prediction for a variety of organic molecules. The input of the generalizable DFT + ML model contains two critical parts: one is a vector providing insights into chemical environments, which can be evaluated without knowing the exact geometry of the molecule; the other one is the DFT-calculated isotropic shielding constant. The DFT + ML model was trained with a data set containing 476 13 C and 270 1 H experimental chemical shifts. For the DFT methods used here, the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) for the errors between predicted and experimental 13 C/ 1 H chemical shifts can be as small as 2.10/0.18 ppm, which is much lower than those from simple DFT (5.54/0.25 ppm), or DFT + linear regression (LR) (4.77/0.23 ppm) approaches. It also has a smaller maximum absolute error than two previously proposed NMR-predicting ML models. The robustness of the DFT + ML model is tested on two classes of organic molecules (TIC10 and hyacinthacines), where the correct isomers were unambiguously assigned to the experimental ones. Overall, the DFT + ML model shows promise for structural assignments in a variety of systems, including stereoisomers, that are often challenging to determine experimentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correcting for filter-based aerosol light absorption biases at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site using photoacoustic measurements and machine learning

Abstract. Measurement of light absorption of solar radiation by aerosols is vital for assessing direct aerosol radiative forcing, which affects local and global climate. Low-cost and easy-to-operate filter-based instruments, such as the Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP), that collect aerosols on a filter and measure light attenuation through the filter are widely used to infer aerosol light absorption. However, filter-based absorption measurements are subject to artifacts that are difficult to quantify. These artifacts are associated with the presence of the filter medium and the complex interactions between the filter fibers and accumulated aerosols. Various correction algorithms have been introduced to correct for the filter-based absorption coefficient measurements toward predicting the particle-phase absorption coefficient (Babs). However, the inability of these algorithms to incorporate into their formulations the complex matrix of influencing parameters such as particle asymmetry parameter, particle size, and particle penetration depth results in prediction of particle-phase absorption coefficients with relatively low accuracy. The analytical forms of corrections also suffer from a lack of universal applicability: different corrections are required for rural and urban sites across the world. In this study, we analyzed and compared 3 months of high-time-resolution ambient aerosol absorption data collected synchronously using a three-wavelength photoacoustic absorption spectrometer (PASS) and PSAP. Both instruments were operated on the same sampling inlet at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) user facility in Oklahoma. We implemented the two most commonly used analytical correction algorithms, namely, Virkkula (2010) and the average of Virkkula (2010) and Ogren (2010)–Bond et al. (1999) as well as a random forest regression (RFR) machine learning algorithm to predict Babs values from the PSAP's filter-based measurements. The predicted Babs was compared against the reference Babs measured by the PASS. The RFR algorithm performed the best by yielding the lowest root mean square error of prediction. The algorithm was trained using input datasets from the PSAP (transmission and uncorrected absorption coefficient), a co-located nephelometer (scattering coefficients), and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (mass concentration of non-refractory aerosol particles). A revised form of the Virkkula (2010) algorithm suitable for the SGP site has been proposed; however, its performance yields approximately 2-fold errors when compared to the RFR algorithm. To generalize the accuracy and applicability of our proposed RFR algorithm, we trained and tested it on a dataset of laboratory measurements of combustion aerosols. Input variables to the algorithm included the aerosol number size distribution from the Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer, absorption coefficients from the filter-based Tricolor Absorption Photometer, and scattering coefficients from a multiwavelength nephelometer. The RFR algorithm predicted Babs values within 5 % of the reference Babs measured by the multiwavelength PASS during the laboratory experiments. Thus, we show that machine learning approaches offer a promising path to correct for biases in long-term filter-based absorption datasets and accurately quantify their variability and trends needed for robust radiative forcing determination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Calibration Transfer Techniques for Remote Monitoring of Samarium and Europium in LiCl Using Laser-Induced Florescence Spectroscopy for Radioisotope Production Applications

Radioisotope production relies on complex chemical processes that must be performed in radiological hot cells or glove boxes because of the radioactive and otherwise hazardous materials being used. In these situations, optical sensors can provide real-time monitoring to users, which is unobtainable by more traditional methods. This study explores the use of calibration transfer methods to train a model on one instrument and date and then transfer it to another instrument of the same or different configuration on a different date. By performing laser-induced fluorescence measurements of Eu(III) and Sm(III) in 10 M LiCl over the course of 6 months using two disparate spectrometers and two different training sets, a strategy for calibrating and deploying models for online monitoring was established. Three transfer techniques were compared: direct standardization (DS), piecewise direct standardization (PDS), and external parameter orthogonalization (EPO). DS and PDS outperformed EPO for day-to-day transfers, and EPO was not effective for instrument-to-instrument transfers. Transferring the initial date’s full factorial model provided better prediction performance compared with retraining models the day of measurements using a D-optimal designed calibration set. For both day-to-day and instrument-to-instrument transfers, five Kennard–Stone selected samples were sufficient. Based on this choice, the initial-date, high-resolution spectrometer model was transferred to a lower-resolution, compact spectrometer 6 months later to monitor a simulated, real-time demonstration. Here, the combined predictions of the DS and PDS transferred models were able to accurately track the anticipated concentration profiles, maintaining root-mean-square error of prediction values below 10 ppm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utilization of Synthetic Near-Infrared Spectra via Generative Adversarial Network to Improve Wood Stiffness Prediction

Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is widely used as a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) tool for predicting wood properties. When deploying NIR models, one faces challenges in ensuring representative training data, which large datasets can mitigate but often at a significant cost. Machine learning and deep learning NIR models are at an even greater disadvantage because they typically require higher sample sizes for training. In this study, NIR spectra were collected to predict the modulus of elasticity (MOE) of southern pine lumber (training set = 573 samples, testing set = 145 samples). To account for the limited size of the training data, this study employed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to generate synthetic NIR spectra. The training dataset was fed into a GAN to generate 313, 573, and 1000 synthetic spectra. The original and enhanced datasets were used to train artificial neural networks (ANNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and light gradient boosting machines (LGBMs) for MOE prediction. Overall, results showed that data augmentation using GAN improved the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) by up to 7.02% and reduced the error of predictions by up to 4.29%. ANNs and CNNs benefited more from synthetic spectra than LGBMs, which only yielded slight improvement. All models showed optimal performance when 313 synthetic spectra were added to the original training data; further additions did not improve model performance because the quality of the datapoints generated by GAN beyond a certain threshold is poor, and one of the main reasons for this can be the size of the initial training data fed into the GAN. LGBMs showed superior performances than ANNs and CNNs on both the original and enhanced training datasets, which highlights the significance of selecting an appropriate machine learning or deep learning model for NIR spectral-data analysis. The results highlighted the positive impact of GAN on the predictive performance of models utilizing NIR spectroscopy as an NDE technique and monitoring tool for wood mechanical-property evaluation. Further studies should investigate the impact of the initial size of training data, the optimal number of generated synthetic spectra, and machine learning or deep learning models that could benefit more from data augmentation using GANs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

“Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda”: Conceptualizing the Differences in Trust Between Human-Human Teaming and Human-Machine Teaming

Intelligent decision support systems (IDSSs) are machine teammates designed to facilitate better human decision-making in high-consequence domains such as health care, power grid operations, and fraud detection. IDSSs identify patterns in datasets and provide intelligent decision-making recommendations to human teammates. However, previous research indicates that humans often trust IDSS recommendations less than the recommendations from their human teammates, even when the machine teammate is more accurate. To conceptualize why trust differs, we review the literature surrounding trust, error, and predictability. Then, we compile and compare participant trust ratings and decision-making in an abridged systematic review of previous studies manipulating teammate type, error rate, and error type. Finally, we conduct a content analysis of participants’ qualitative responses to trust queries from a survey on generative language models. Results suggest that humans may trust IDSS teammates less than other human teammates because of differences in (1) interaction complexity, (2) blame attribution, and (3) swift trust. We conclude that human factors practitioners should collaborate with data scientists and domain experts to build and maintain trust in IDSSs by anthropomorphizing algorithms, matching mental models, and considering individual differences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

25-Pin metallic fuel performance benchmark case based on the EBR-II X430 experiments series

A metallic fuel benchmark case was developed for the fuel performance code BISON based on 25 uranium-zirconium and uranium-plutonium-zirconium pins of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II X430 experiment series. Results of the benchmarks were compared with measurements and calculations made at the time of the experiment as well as subsequent measurements reported in 2019. The comparisons were used to quantify the accuracy of the BISON predictions and to identify patterns in the BISON differences.BISON predicted burnup, plenum pressure, and fission gas release fractions accurately. BISON temperature predictions were somewhat cooler than the temperatures determined at the time of the experiment but appeared to be reasonably accurate considering uncertainties in the legacy temperature calculations, uncertainties in the legacy linear heat rate calculations, and the high sensitivities of the BISON-predicted temperatures to BISON inputs. Fuel axial elongation predictions had errors correlated to fuel composition; BISON tended to underpredict the elongation of binary fuels and overpredict the elongation of ternary fuels. BISON cladding radial dilation predictions were also significantly lower than legacy PIE measurements.Recommendations were made to improve the BISON fuel gaseous swelling model to account for fuel composition, to add additional capabilities to the coolant channel temperature model to ease benchmark development, and to continue developing benchmark cases based on a wide range of experiments in several reactors. Once a wide array of benchmarks is developed, an attempt can be made to enhance or calibrate BISON models to improve the cladding dilation predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of Lanthanides in a Molten Salt Reactor Surrogate Off-Gas Stream Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

To enable the deployment of molten salt reactor technology, the development of off-gas treatment systems and advanced monitoring tools capable of operating with high temperatures and radiation fields while delivering near real-time information is necessary. Here, we aim to fulfill this requirement and proposes laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for monitoring molten salt aerosol streams. A sheath gas measuring method was developed to protect optical elements from aerosol particles and to ensure a relatively constant aerosol stream for measurement. An aqueous system was studied to demonstrate the utility of LIBS for monitoring possible fission products in an aerosol stream: Gd, Nd, and Sm up to 2000 parts per million (ppm). A calibration model was built using partial least squares (PLS) regression with five, six, and nine latent variables for Gd, Nd, and Sm, respectively. This calibration model successfully estimated the concentrations of three test samples, which were validated with inductively charged plasma optical emission spectroscopy measurements at a 99.9% confidence interval. To enhance these models, a genetic algorithm was used to filter the spectra before entering the PLS model, thereby limiting the spectral features being regressed to those with greater correlations to concentration. This allowed for the number of latent variables used in the PLS models to be reduced to four, three, and three for Gd, Nd, and Sm, respectively. Finally, the genetic algorithm-filtered PLS models were used to predict the concentrations of the aerosol stream on a real-time dataset and resulted in a 73%, 18%, and 25% improvement in root mean squared error of prediction compared to the original PLS models developed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗