Results for “predictive simulation” — Page 10

DOE OSTI2025

Theoretically Informed Kinetics (ThInK): Establishing a modern C 0 -C 3 mechanism for combustion modeling

In contrast to the adage “Models are to be used, not believed”, combustion kinetics models have been intended to be predictive in nature. Theoretical chemical kinetics is now understood to provide a firm foundation for the reaction parameters, thereby facilitating predictive simulations of chemical reactivity, even in regimes that are poorly characterized by chemical kinetic and/or combustion experiments. In this study, we describe a theory-informed kinetics model (ThInK) for small molecule combustion chemistry (H 2 and C 1 – C 3 species) that is based on the prodigious use of theoretical predictions for reaction rate coefficients, thermochemistry, and transport parameters. The distinct features of this kinetics model, which was developed over the course of several decades, are illustrated through simulations of flame propagation and auto-ignition.

Energy transfer↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical assessment of the impact of the guiding-centre approximation on fast ion simulations in NSTX

Guiding-centre (GC) and full-orbit (FO) simulations of the beam-injected fast ion distribution and the corresponding neutron emissivity have been carried out for magnetohydrodynamics-quiescent National Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX) plasmas, using a combination of ASCOT5 and DRESS, to assess the suitability of the GC approximation for fast ions in NSTX. It was found that GC and FO simulations predicted substantially different steady-state distributions in both position and velocity space and different neutron emissivity profiles, leading to a 15% reduction in the predicted global neutron rate for FO relative to GC. These changes accompany a higher magnetic moment in FO, and correspond to a change in particle orbits from co-passing to trapped and stagnation orbits. ASCOT5 was also benchmarked against TRANSP/NUBEAM with input loaded entirely from TRANSP/NUBEAM output files, with agreement found between the GC simulations when finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections were omitted. ASCOT5 FO and TRANSP/NUBEAM with FLR produced fast ion distributions which differed in localised regions, but predicted global neutron rates which agree within 3%.

ASCOT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discrete-Element and Material-Point Method (DEM and MPM) Based Solvers for Sustainable Technologies

We present the use of discrete element method (DEM) and material point method (MPM) in three relevant green technology applications that include biomass feedstock handling, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and high-pressure reverse osmosis. Our open-source DEM and MPM solvers are developed using performance portable grid and particle management library, AMReX, thus enabling superior performance on NVIDIA and AMD GPUs with > 100 million particles. Our DEM solver resolves the motion of individual particles in a granular system and includes a bonded sphere method for modeling non-spherical particles along with Hertzian and liquid bridge-based contact models. We simulate highly variable biomass feedstock flows in large-scale hoppers for biofuel production and electrode calendering in battery manufacturing using DEM. Our simulations predict flow blockage in large scale biomass hoppers and electrode microstructure variations, thus providing valuable information for biofuel and battery manufacturers, respectively. The second half of the talk will be on MPM and its application towards pore resolved simulations of reverse osmosis membranes under compressive loads. We present a validation study of our MPM simulations with membrane microscopy imaging thus providing useful insights on membrane stability under high pressure conditions. We also present a spectral stability analysis of using linear hat, quadratic and cubic spline basis in MPM indicating regions of numerical stability.

BIOMASS FUELS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Super-X and conventional divertor configurations in MAST-U ohmic L-mode; a comparison facilitated by interpretative modelling

Measurements are presented, alongside corresponding interpretative SOLPS-ITER simulations, of the first MAST-U experiments comparing ohmically heated L-mode fuelling scans in Conventional divertor (CD) and Super-X divertor (SXD) configurations. In experiment, at comparable outer mid-plane separatrix electron density, $n_{e,\textrm{sep,OMP}}$, the maximum lower outer target heat load was found to be a factor 16 $\,\pm\,7$ lower in SXD compared to CD. In simulation, a factor 26.8 reduction was found (slightly higher than the experimental range), suggesting an additional reduction in SXD compared to the factor 9.3 expected from geometric considerations alone. According to the simulations, this additional reduction in the SXD is due to a net radial transport of the energy remaining downstream of the $T_e = 5$ eV location. This energy is carried out of the critical (highest heat load) flux tube by deuterium atoms, demonstrating the importance of a longer legged divertor which provides space for this to occur. Importantly, in both simulation and experiment, the SXD has minimal impact on the upstream n e and T e profiles. Spectral inferences of detachment front movement in SXD compare well between simulation and experiment. In regions of high magnetic field gradient, the parallel movement of the front towards the X-point becomes less sensitive to increasing $n_{e,\textrm{sep,OMP}}$, in qualitative agreement with simplified models and previous predictive simulations. Additional aspects, regarding the target ion flux rollover, upstream separatrix temperature and drift effects, are also presented and discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of a temporal multiscale method for efficient simulation of degradation in PEM Water Electrolysis under dynamic operating conditions

Hydrogen is emerging as a vital energy carrier, driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions. Proton Electrolyte Membrane Water Electrolysis (PEMWE) enables hydrogen production under fluctuating renewable power conditions but requires improved understanding and stability of the anode catalyst layer under dynamic operating conditions, especially with low noble metal loadings. Long-term degradation experiments are both time-consuming and costly; therefore, a systematic, model-aided approach is essential. In the present work, a temporal multiscale method is applied to reduce the computational effort of simulating long-term degradation processes in PEMWE, with an exemplary focus on catalyst dissolution. A mechanistic model incorporating the oxygen evolution reaction, catalyst dissolution, and hydrogen permeation from the cathode to the anode was hypothesized and implemented. In this way, the local periodicity of transport and reaction processes in dynamic PEMWE operation, which influence the gradual degradation of the catalyst layer, is captured. The temporal multiscale method significantly reduces the computational effort of simulation, decreasing processing time from hours to mere minutes. This efficiency gain is attributed to the limited evolution of Slow-Scale variables during each period of time P of the Fast-Scale variables. Consequently, simulation is required only until local periodicity is achieved within each Slow-Scale time step. Hence, the fully resolved dynamic problem is decoupled into these two scales, employing a heterogeneous multiscale technique. The developed approach effectively accelerates parameter estimation and predictive simulations, supporting systematic modeling of PEMWE degradation under dynamic conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2008

Flight Results of the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Aircraft with Adaptation to a Longitudinally Destabilized Plant

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. The goal for the adaptive system is to provide an increase in survivability in the event that these extreme changes occur. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane. The adaptive element was incorporated into a dynamic inversion controller with explicit reference model-following. As a test the system was subjected to an abrupt change in plant stability simulating a destabilizing failure. Flight evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to stabilize the vehicle and reestablish good onboard reference model-following. Flight evaluation with the simulated destabilizing failure and adaptation engaged showed improvement in the vehicle stability margins. The convergent properties of this initial system warrant additional improvement since continued maneuvering caused continued adaptation change. Compared to the non-adaptive system the adaptive system provided better closed-loop behavior with improved matching of the onboard reference model. A detailed discussion of the flight results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Reliable simulation, prediction, and complete theoretical understanding of atmospheric blocking remain challenging despite its significant socio-economic impacts. Generations of climate models have notoriously underestimated blocking frequency, particularly over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Identifying factors controlling blocking frequency and dynamics is therefore essential for improving its simulation. Here, using a cloud-locking experiment, we show that cloud radiative effects (CREs) significantly increase the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking. CREs enhance upstream diabatic source of wave activity, both directly through longwave heating and indirectly through their feedback on latent heating, with the latter playing the dominant role. The resulting increase in the upstream diabatic source feeds into local wave activity downstream and promotes blocking formation. Qualitatively similar results are shown by multi-model experiments with radiatively inactive clouds to longwave radiation, albeit with a larger impact from mean-state changes. The results underscore the necessity of accurately representing cloud-radiation interactions in weather and climate models for improved prediction of blocking events.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Bosworth, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Strong Reconnection Electric Fields in Shock-Driven Turbulence

Turbulent magnetic reconnection in a quasi-parallel shock under parameters relevant to the Earth's bow shock is investigated by means of a two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulation. The addressed aspects include the reconnection electric field, the reconnection rate, and the electron and the ion outflow speeds. In the shock transition region, many current sheets are generated in shock-driven turbulence, and electron-only reconnection and reconnection where both ions and electrons are involved can occur in those current sheets. The electron outflow speed in electron-only reconnection shows a positive correlation with the theoretical speed, which is close to the local electron Alfvén speed, and a strong convection electric field is generated by the large electron outflow. As a result, the reconnection electric field becomes much larger than those in the standard magnetopause or magnetotail reconnection. In shock-driven reconnection that involves ion dynamics, both electron outflows and ion outflows can reach of the order of 10 times the Alfvén speed in the X-line rest frame, leading to a reconnection electric field the same order as that in electron-only reconnection. An electron-only reconnection event observed by the magnetospheric multiscale mission downstream of a quasi-parallel shock is qualitatively similar to those in the simulation and shows that the outflow speed reaches approximately half the local electron Alfvén speed, supporting the simulation prediction.

magnetic reconnection↗

DOE OSTI2026

Theoretical Insights into Reaction-Induced Transformation and Tuning of Catalytic Behavior in Heterogenous Catalysis

Reaction-induced transformations in heterogenous catalysis represent diverse phenomena that challenge traditional views of static catalyst surfaces. From surface adsorbate dynamics, atomic rearrangements, to composition and phase transitions, these processes reveal the profound differences between idealized model systems under ultrahigh vacuum and the complex, evolving interfaces that govern real catalytic behaviors under reaction conditions. Here, this perspective reviews recent theoretical efforts to provide atomic-level mechanistic insights into significant reaction-induced transformations and their impact on catalytic activity and selectivity. It underscores the need for an integrated framework that combines predictive simulations with operando characterization to uncover active sites and mechanisms under realistic operating conditions. Achieving this requires accelerating existing simulations to fully capture diverse reaction-induced surface dynamics, enabling scalable and accurate modeling of catalysts as condition-dependent, dynamically evolving systems. Such approaches are critical to bridge the gap between theory and practice, offering a pathway to more impactful and predictive catalyst design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Geometric Sensitivity of Residual Fields in Metal Additive Manufacturing

The sensitivity of geometrical parameters on the residual stress and distortion as computed by a metal additive manufacturing simulation is presented. A nozzle-like geometry was chosen with its length, wall thickness, and outer radius varied. A Latin hypercube sampling of 300 specimens produced the combinations of the geometrical parameters. Full thermomechanical simulations predicted the residual fields. Statistical analysis including regression curves shows that there is a strong correlation between these residual fields and the geometry, hinting that it may be possible to predictably influence the residual displacements and residual stresses by varying the overall geometry.

Multiscale Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular Modes Elucidate the Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Relaxation of Viscous Fluids

The Bloembergen, Purcell, and Pound (BPP) theory of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation in fluids dating back to 1948 continues to be the linchpin in interpreting NMR relaxation data in applications ranging from characterizing fluids in porous media to medical imaging (MRI). The BPP theory is founded on assuming molecules are hard spheres with 1 H– 1 H dipole pairs reorienting randomly; assumptions that are severe in light of modern understanding of liquids. Nevertheless, it is intriguing to this day that the BPP theory was consistent with the original experimental data for glycerol, a hydrogen-bonding molecular fluid for which the hard-sphere-rigid-dipole assumption is inapplicable. To better understand this incongruity, atomistic molecular simulations are used to compute 1 H NMR T 1 relaxation dispersion (i.e., frequency dependence) in two contrasting cases: glycerol, and a (non hydrogen-bonding) viscosity standard. At high viscosities, simulations predict distinct functional forms of T 1 for glycerol compared to the viscosity standard, in agreement with modern measurements, yet both in contrast to BPP theory. The cause of these departures from BPP theory is elucidated, without assuming any relaxation models and without any free parameters, by decomposing the simulated T 1 response into dynamic molecular modes for both intramolecular and intermolecular interactions. The decomposition into dynamic molecular modes provides an alternative framework to understand the physics of NMR relaxation for viscous fluids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

On-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo approaches for modeling molecular anisotropy in resveratrol crystallization

Stilbenes are a class of organic compounds with broad-ranging pharmaceutical and agricultural applications, which are typically isolated and purified through recrystallization. We are motivated by reducing experimental waste and optimizing yield via developing predictive simulations for processing-dependent crystal morphologies. Using resveratrol as a model stilbene system, we have developed an approach for simulating crystallization with molecular resolution using on-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo. In this work, we highlight modifications to the Stochastic Parallel PARticle Kinetic Simulator (SPPARKS) software package, which were essential to this application. Key enhancements include the incorporation of non-orthogonal cell shapes and monomer anisotropy approximations using bound hard spheres. This new SPPARKS application has been applied to resveratrol with attachment energy libraries obtained from density functional theory, resulting in excellent agreement with experimental morphology prediction.

crystallization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploitation of a Validation Hierarchy for Modeling and Simulation

Across engineering there is an evolving need to increase reliance on physics-based simulation to develop, design and optimize engineering systems. This increased reliance on modeling and simulation has highlighted a growing need to transform the confidence that modeling and simulation analysts have in their results into credibility for systems engineers to design and field systems more quickly and with less physical testing. For isolated components of a complex system, where a single discipline may drive product design, this is less of a concern as the relationship is often straightforward and easy to explain. However, when these isolated components are integrated, and are expected to operate in a multi-disciplinary context in which safety critical systems are involved, new concepts and model assurance standards are required. In this paper we address this challenge by showing how a model validation hierarchy can be exploited to identify those model validation experiments that will contribute most to increasing confidence and credibility of modeling and simulation predictions. The approach that is adopted contains four main steps. The first step is the construction of a model validation hierarchy that links subsystems, assemblies, and components to a hierarchy of physical experiments that can be used support model validation. This hierarchy connects the concerns of systems engineers to those of the modeling and simulation analyst in a clear and logical way. The structure and content of this hierarchy is then used in a second step to establish which physical phenomena have the greatest impact on overall system performance metrics. A gap analysis technique, based upon modeling and simulation concerns, is then used to prioritize the important physical phenomenon. Unfortunately, a common outcome of such gap analyses is the identification of many important gaps and so, in the final step of our process, we advocate the use of a global sensitivity analysis as a means to complete the prioritization.

Verification and Validation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploitation of a Validation Hierarchy for Modeling and Simulation

Across engineering there is an evolving need to increase reliance on physics-based simulation to develop, design and optimize engineering systems. This increased reliance on modeling and simulation has highlighted a growing need to transform the confidence that modeling and simulation analysts have in their results into credibility for systems engineers to design and field systems more quickly and with less physical testing. For isolated components of a complex system, where a single discipline may drive product design, this is less of a concern as the relationship is often straightforward and easy to explain. However, when these isolated components are integrated, and are expected to operate in a multi-disciplinary context in which safety critical systems are involved, new concepts and model assurance standards are required. In this paper we address this challenge by showing how a model validation hierarchy can be exploited to identify those model validation experiments that will contribute most to increasing confidence and credibility of modeling and simulation predictions. The approach that is adopted contains four main steps. The first step is the construction of a model validation hierarchy that links subsystems, assemblies, and components to a hierarchy of physical experiments that can be used support model validation. This hierarchy connects the concerns of systems engineers to those of the modeling and simulation analyst in a clear and logical way. The structure and content of this hierarchy is then used in a second step to establish which physical phenomena have the greatest impact on overall system performance metrics. A gap analysis technique, based upon modeling and simulation concerns, is then used to prioritize the important physical phenomenon. Unfortunately, a common outcome of such gap analyses is the identification of many important gaps and so, in the final step of our process, we advocate the use of a global sensitivity analysis as a means to complete the prioritization.

Verification and Validation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data Science Shows that Entropy Correlates with Accelerated Zeolite Crystallization in Monte Carlo Simulations

We have performed a data science study of Monte Carlo simulation trajectories to understand factors that can accelerate formation of zeolite nanoporous crystals, a process that can take days or even weeks. In previous work, Monte Carlo simulations predicted and experiments confirmed that using a secondary organic structure-directing agent (OSDA) accelerates crystallization of all-silica LTA zeolite, with experiments finding a three-fold speedup [PCCP 24, 142-148 (2022)]. However, it remains unclear what physical factors cause the speed-up. Here, we apply data science to analyze the simulation trajectories to discover what drives accelerated zeolite crystallization in Monte Carlo going from a one-OSDA synthesis (1OSDA) to a two-OSDA version (2OSDA). We encoded simulation snapshots using the Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions approach, which represents all 2- and 3-body correlations within a given cutoff distance. Principal component analyses failed to discriminate datasets of structures from 1OSDA and 2OSDA simulations, while the Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach succeeded at classifying such structures with an area-under-curve (AUC) score of 0.99 (where AUC = 1 is a perfect classification) with all 3-body correlations, and as high as 0.94 with only 2-body correlations. SVM decision functions reveal relatively broad / narrow histograms for 1OSDA / 2OSDA datasets, suggesting that the two simulations differ strongly in information heterogeneity. Informed by these results, we performed pair (2-body) entropy calculations during crystallization, resulting in entropy differences that semi-quantitatively account for the speedup observed in the previous Monte Carlo simulations. We conclude that altering synthesis conditions in ways that substantially changes the entropy of labile silica networks may accelerate zeolite crystallization, and we discuss possible approaches for achieving such acceleration.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗