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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Closing in on Hydrologic Predictive Accuracy: Combining the Strengths of High-Fidelity and Physics-Agnostic Models

Applications of process-based models (PBM) for predictions are confounded by multiple uncertainties and computational burdens, resulting in appreciable errors. A novel modeling framework combining a high-fidelity PBM with surrogate and machine learning (ML) models is developed to tackle these challenges and applied for streamflow prediction. A surrogate model permits high computational efficiency of a PBM solution at a minimum loss of its accuracy. A novel probabilistic ML model partitions the PBM-surrogate prediction errors into reducible and irreducible types, quantifying their distributions that arise due to both explicitly perceived uncertainties (such as parametric) or those that are entirely hidden to the modeler (not included or unexpected). Using this approach, we demonstrate a substantial improvement of streamflow predictive accuracy for a case study urbanized watershed. Such a framework provides an efficient solution combining the strengths of high-fidelity and physics-agnostic models for a wide range of prediction problems in geosciences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance portable ice-sheet modeling with MALI

High-resolution simulations of polar ice sheets play a crucial role in the ongoing effort to develop more accurate and reliable Earth system models for probabilistic sea-level projections. These simulations often require a massive amount of memory and computation from large supercomputing clusters to provide sufficient accuracy and resolution; therefore, it has become essential to ensure performance on these platforms. Many of today’s supercomputers contain a diverse set of computing architectures and require specific programming interfaces in order to obtain optimal efficiency. In an effort to avoid architecture-specific programming and maintain productivity across platforms, the ice-sheet modeling code known as MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) uses high-level abstractions to integrate Trilinos libraries and the Kokkos programming model for performance portable code across a variety of different architectures. In this article, we analyze the performance portable features of MALI via a performance analysis on current CPU-based and GPU-based supercomputers. The analysis highlights not only the performance portable improvements made in finite element assembly and multigrid preconditioning within MALI with speedups between 1.26 and 1.82x across CPU and GPU architectures but also identifies the need to further improve performance in software coupling and preconditioning on GPUs. We perform a weak scalability study and show that simulations on GPU-based machines perform 1.24–1.92x faster when utilizing the GPUs. The best performance is found in finite element assembly, which achieved a speedup of up to 8.65x and a weak scaling efficiency of 82.6% with GPUs. We additionally describe an automated performance testing framework developed for this code base using a changepoint detection method. The framework is used to make actionable decisions about performance within MALI. We provide several concrete examples of scenarios in which the framework has identified performance regressions, improvements, and algorithm differences over the course of 2 years of development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Optimization Using Importance Sampling: Preprint

Probabilistic methods are commonly adopted to estimate both ultimate and fatigue loads in wind turbines, and multiple papers have presented a variety of approaches. In contrast, system-level, integrated design optimization methods for wind turbines have so far relied on deterministic methods to estimate loads and deflections. This work aims at addressing this gap by adopting importance sampling to estimate ultimate blade deflection for use within a rotor design optimization. A comparison between the results of this approach against traditional approaches using deterministic load evaluations show that the probabilistic approach is more conservative and that the solutions found with deterministic approaches violate the probabilistic constraint on tip deflection between 13% and 17%. This highlights the importance of accurate load and deflection estimates and demonstrates that probabilistic approaches can be successfully integrated within a wind turbine design process despite the higher computational costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autodifferentiable Spectrum Model for High-dispersion Characterization of Exoplanets and Brown Dwarfs

We present an autodifferentiable spectral modeling of exoplanets and brown dwarfs. This model enables a fully Bayesian inference of the high-dispersion data to fit the ab initio line-by-line spectral computation to the observed spectrum by combining it with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in recent probabilistic programming languages. An open-source code, ExoJAX, developed in this study, was written in Python using the GPU/TPU compatible package for automatic differentiation and accelerated linear algebra, JAX. We validated the model by comparing it with existing opacity calculators and a radiative transfer code and found reasonable agreements for the output. As a demonstration, we analyzed the high-dispersion spectrum of a nearby brown dwarf, Luhman 16 A, and found that a model including water, carbon monoxide, and H 2 /He collision-induced absorption was well fitted to the observed spectrum (R = 10 5 and 2.28-2.30 μm). As a result, we found that T0 = 1295$^{-32}_{+35}$ K at 1 bar and C/O = 0.62 ± 0.03, which is slightly higher than the solar value. This work demonstrates the potential of a full Bayesian analysis of brown dwarfs and exoplanets as observed by high-dispersion spectrographs and also directly imaged exoplanets as observed by high-dispersion coronagraphy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CV4Quantum: Reducing the Sampling Overhead in Probabilistic Error Cancellation Using Control Variates

Quasiprobabilistic decompositions (QPDs) play a key role in maximizing the utility of near-term quantum hardware. For example, Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC) (an error mitigation technique) and circuit cutting (which enables large quantum computations to be performed on quantum hardware with a limited number of qubits) both involve QPDs. Computations based on QPDs typically incur large sampling overheads that grow exponentially with the number of error-terms mitigated or number of circuit-cuts employed, limiting their practical feasibility. In this work, we adapt the control variates variance reduction technique from the statistics literature in order to reduce the sampling overhead in QPD-based computations. We demonstrate our method using simulation experiments that mimic a realistic PEC scenario. In our experiments, we observed a more than 50% reduction in the number of samples needed to achieve a given precision, in more than 50% of the PEC-based estimations performed in the study when using our approach. We discuss how future research on constructing good control variates can lead to even stronger sampling overhead reduction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

There is a need for research into dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) (i.e., simulation- or computation-based HRA), as many researchers have emphasized the importance of applying dynamic approaches to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). This study proposes the Procedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – Human Reliability Analysis (PRIMERA-HRA), a dynamic HRA approach based on the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This study suggests how this software can be used to model human actions and evaluate error probabilities. The applicability of this approach is also be investigated in light of an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario. This paper then discusses the major insights derived by comparing this dynamic HRA approach against the static one.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convex Optimization of Integrated Power-Gas Energy Flow Model With Applications to Probabilistic Energy Flow

Energy flow calculation is a fundamental problem of the integrated power and gas system (IPGS) operation and planning. However, the nonlinear gas flow model introduces major challenges to the energy flow calculation. In this paper, we propose a tractably convex optimization model to solve the energy flow problem in IPGSs. It is demonstrated that the proposed optimization model has the same optimal solution as the original nonlinear steady energy flow model. Also, piecewise linearization is adopted to tightly linearize the nonlinear objective function of the model, which transforms the formulated convex optimization into a linear program one. Thus, the computation complexity of the proposed energy flow model is significantly reduced as compared with the existing methods. In addition, the proposed model can be extended to probabilistic energy flow estimation. Extensive case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed energy flow model using three IPGSs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Nuclear Containment Vessel Modeling for Multi-Hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment under Seismic Hazards and Concrete Degradation

The current practice for natural phenomena hazards (NPH) risk assessment of nuclear facilities is to compute the risk for each hazard independently and then compound the total risk as a combination of single hazard risks. This state of practice does not consider correlations between hazards and the cascading impacts to structures, systems, and components (SSCs), and could thus underestimate the NPH risk or overestimate the nuclear facility safety. Events such as the Fukushima Daiichi accident have highlighted the importance of multi-hazard risk considerations to nuclear power plants (NPPs) that quantify the cascading damage effects to SSCs in the risk models. Moreover, the current fleet of NPPs in the United States is aging; these NPPs are now expected to operate well beyond their initially planned design life. Aging-related deterioration can potentially decrease the capacity of critical structures such as containment vessels to withstand NPH. Such aging considerations may not be adequately accounted for by the current NPH risk assessment guidelines. This paper presents a preliminary modeling and simulation of a representative reinforced concrete containment vessel subjected to seismic mainshock and aftershock considering concrete degradation due to alkali silica reaction. The broader aim is to develop multi-hazard time-dependent fragility functions that could be subsequently used in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. The multi-hazard component comes into play due to the consideration of damage to the containment vessel under seismic loads and concrete degradation. Consideration of concrete degradation also brings into play the time-dependent nature of the containment vessel response. The response of the containment vessel under varying degrees of concrete degradation to seismic loads is investigated. The results presented are simulated using the Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) software for seismic analysis and the Blackbear software for concrete degradation and damage modeling. Both software are open source and developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models for generative alloy design

Inverse material design is an extremely challenging optimization task made difficult by, in part, the highly nonlinear relationship linking performance with composition. Quantitative approaches have improved significantly owing to advances in high throughput experimentation and computational thermodynamics. However, existing physics-based tools are mostly forward models; input a chemistry and obtain a prediction. More recently the materials community has leveraged advances in the machine learning community to establish novel inverse design frameworks. Very recently denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been shown to be extremely powerful generators producing synthetic data of various modalities e.g. images, text, audio, tables, etc.. In this work a novel framework for alloy design and optimization is proposed leveraging these class of models. Five key generative tasks are demonstrated (1) unconditional generation (2) composition conditioned generation (3) property conditioned generation (4) multi-feedstock conditioned generation and (5) generative optimization. These methods were tested on three case studies: high entropy alloy design, superalloy binder jet additive manufacturing, and in-situ dual-feedstock wire-arc additive manufacturing. Results indicate that the established models are extremely flexible, expressive, and robust. The architecture’s flexibility and training procedure empower the model to learn complex intra-compositional and composition-property relationships. Furthermore, the probabilistic nature of these models makes them well suited for addressing solution non-uniqueness and tackling uncertainty quantification tasks. While the fidelity and quantity of the underlying training data is paramount, we envision that future alloy design frameworks will make extensive use of these kinds of machine learning models as “search” tools bolstering the utility of experimental and computational approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Optimization to Sampling Through Gradient Flows

Optimization and sampling algorithms play a central role in science and engineering as they enable finding optimal predictions, policies, and recommendations, as well as expected and equilibrium states of complex systems. The notion of “optimality” is formalized by the choice of an objective function, while the notion of an “expected” state is specified by a probabilistic model for the distribution of states. Optimizing rugged objective functions and sampling multimodal distributions is computationally challenging, especially in high-dimensional problems. Here, for this reason, many optimization and sampling methods have been developed by researchers working in disparate fields such as Bayesian statistics, molecular dynamics, genetics, quantum chemistry, machine learning, weather forecasting, econometrics, and medical imaging.

Trillos, N. García↗
DOE OSTI2026

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning to simulate high energy particle collisions from unlabeled data

In many scientific fields which rely on statistical inference, simulations are often used to map from theoretical models to experimental data, allowing scientists to test model predictions against experimental results. Experimental data is often reconstructed from indirect measurements causing the aggregate transformation from theoretical models to experimental data to be poorly-described analytically. Instead, numerical simulations are used at great computational cost. We introduce Optimal-Transport-based Unfolding and Simulation (OTUS), a fast simulator based on unsupervised machine-learning that is capable of predicting experimental data from theoretical models. Without the aid of current simulation information, OTUS trains a probabilistic autoencoder to transform directly between theoretical models and experimental data. Identifying the probabilistic autoencoder’s latent space with the space of theoretical models causes the decoder network to become a fast, predictive simulator with the potential to replace current, computationally-costly simulators. Here, we provide proof-of-principle results on two particle physics examples, Z-boson and top-quark decays, but stress that OTUS can be widely applied to other fields.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel framework for hosting capacity analysis with spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis

Smart grids are envisioned to accommodate high penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation, which may cause adverse grid impacts in terms of voltage violations. Therefore, PV Hosting capacity is being used as a planning tool to determine the maximum PV installation capacity that causes the first voltage violation and above which would require infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, traditional methods of Hosting capacity analysis are scenario based and computationally complex as they rely on iterative load flow algorithms that require investigating a large number of scenarios for accurate assessment of PV impacts. Therefore, this paper presents a computationally efficient analytical approach to compute the probability distribution of voltage change due to random behavior of randomly located multiple distributed PVs. The proposed approach is based on Spatio-temporal probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis that exploits both spatial and temporal uncertainties associated with PV injections. Thereafter, the derived distribution is used to quantify voltage violations for various PV penetration levels and subsequently determine the hosting capacity of the system without the need to examine large number of scenarios. Results of the proposed framework are validated via conventional load flow based simulation approach on the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 node test systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Case for Optimized Edge-Centric Tractography at Scale

The anatomic validity of structural connectomes remains a significant uncertainty in neuroimaging. Edge-centric tractography reconstructs streamlines in bundles between each pair of cortical or subcortical regions. Although edge bundles provides a stronger anatomic embedding than traditional connectomes, calculating them for each region-pair requires exponentially greater computation. We observe that major speedup can be achieved by reducing the number of streamlines used by probabilistic tractography algorithms. To ensure this does not degrade connectome quality, we calculate the identifiability of edge-centric connectomes between test and re-test sessions as a proxy for information content. We find that running PROBTRACKX2 with as few as 1 streamline per voxel per region-pair has no significant impact on identifiability. Variation in identifiability caused by streamline count is overshadowed by variation due to subject demographics. This finding even holds true in an entirely different tractography algorithm using MRTrix. Incidentally, we observe that Jaccard similarity is more effective than Pearson correlation in calculating identifiability for our subject population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗