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At least 181 records · Page 10

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling↗

Characterizing Regional Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Liquids Unloading

A “bottom-up” probabilistic model was developed using engineering first-principles to quantify annualized throughput normalized methane emissions (TNME) from natural gas liquid unloading activities for 18 basins in the United States in 2016. For each basin, six discrete liquid-unloading scenarios are considered, consisting of combinations of well types (conventional and unconventional) and liquid-unloading systems (nonplunger, manual plunger lift, and automatic plunger lift). While previous work has advocated that operational malfunctions and abnormal process conditions explain the existence of super-emitters in the natural gas supply chain, this work finds that super-emitters can arise naturally due to variability in underlying component processes. Additionally, average cumulative methane emissions from liquids unloading, attributed to the natural gas supply chain, across all basins are ~4.8 times higher than those inferred from the 2016 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP).

Zaimes, George G.↗

Stakeholder Engagement Review Meeting Summary Report

Sustainability in the context of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is the ability to maintain the safe and economic operation of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants now and in the future. It has two objectives with respect to long-term operations: (1) to provide science and technology-based solutions to industry to safely enhance the economical operation of power reactors; and (2) to manage the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) so that nuclear power plants can continue to operate safely and cost-effectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Massively Parallel Bayesian Model Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Nuclear Fuels and Materials

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in a nuclear reactor is governed by a complex network of mechanisms interacting with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent the fuel behavior will likely be idealized resulting in uncertainties in their predictions compared to the observed data. As such, this report was motivated by the need to identify the sources of uncertainties and quantify and propagate them through the fuel model outputs. Such quantification of uncertainties will establish a level of model trustworthiness, identify approaches to improve the model trustworthiness, and even guide optimal experiment design for maximal information gain. To accomplish the uncertainty quantification for computational models, this report has relied on the Bayesian framework which provides probabilistic treatment of models their inputs and outputs. The current state-of-the-art on performing Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for nuclear engineering models using High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have been reviewed. Implementation of capabilities for massively parallel Bayesian UQ in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is discussed. Several verification cases are discussed to verify the accuracy of the quantified uncertainties using the developed computational capabilities in MOOSE. Then, the problem of quantifying the uncertainties in TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) fuel silver release is addressed. For the first time, the uncertainties arising from the TRISO Fission Gas Release (FGR) model due to model inadequacy and experimental noise are quantified. Also, the Bayesian capabilities are applied to the calibration of the MATPRO creep model, a widely used model in several fuel assessment cases. The impact of the prediction uncertainties in the MATPRO model on the fuel cladding behavior as part of the TRIBULATION assessment case (which is an integral effects case) is investigated. This report concludes with a discussion on the future work for the UQ for computational models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Systems under Uncertain Forecasts

The paper focuses on distribution systems featuring renewable energy sources and energy storage devices, and develops an optimal power flow (OPF) approach to optimize the system operation in spite of forecasting errors. The proposed method builds on a chance-constrained multi-period AC OPF formulation, where probabilistic constraints are utilized to enforce voltage regulation with a prescribed probability. To enable a computationally affordable solution approach, a convex reformulation of the OPF task is obtained by resorting to i) pertinent linear approximations of the power flow equations, and ii) convex approximations of the chance constraints. Particularly, the approximate chance constraints provide conservative bounds that hold for arbitrary distributions of the forecasting errors. An adaptive optimization strategy is then obtained by embedding the proposed OPF task into a model predictive control framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Multi-Criteria Impact Evaluation Methodology Applied to FLEX Strategies in Nuclear Power Plants

As responses to Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, several advanced, near-term technologies have been or are being introduced to enhance safety of operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) as well as improving their sustainability. Examples include Accident-Tolerant Fuel designs, Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), and passive cooling system designs. The combinations of these technologies, coupled with enhancements to plant components and systems and improved fuel cycle efficiency, constitute a concept of Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems, which is proposed and being explored by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. To decide if introducing a technology is necessary or worthy, the impacts of this technology on NPPs should be evaluated, preferably in a quantitative manner, and provided to decision makers. This paper summarizes an on-going work conducted by the authors on developing a multi-criteria impact evaluation methodology. This methodology is expected to be applicable to evaluate a variety of technologies, while FLEX strategy is adopted as a case study for this paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

GRACE Final Technical Report

The GRACE project (Grid that is Risk-Aware for Clean Electricity) was a five-year research initiative funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency- Energy (ARPA-E) under the PERFORM program. Led by Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, with contributions from The Ohio State University, North Carolina State University, Dartmouth College, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the project addressed a fundamental challenge in grid management: conventional software plans for a single most-likely outcome and relies on reserves as a buffer, leaving utilities poorly equipped for the growing variability introduced by renewable energy. GRACE demonstrated a better approach: explicitly representing thousands of plausible future scenarios and choosing operating schedules that perform well across all of them.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5–50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Summary Report on Synthetic Time History Development and Deployment

This report summarizes research work performed at the Colorado School of Mines (CSM) and George Washington University (GWU) in support of the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program. In particular, the work focuses on improving and strengthening two fundamental steps in the mathematical and computational framework that is currently being developed to optimize the economic performance of Integrated Energy Systems. One of the innovative approaches taken by the IES program is that, rather than optimizing the system for a specific year or week or day, the optimization is performed using stochastic synthetic data. Synthetic data is generated by training artificial intelligence (AI) using available but limited data sets. The synthetic data should possess the same patterns as the original set and the same statistical properties, but never repeat the same set of values exactly. The work from CSM focuses on this first step; namely, investigating a methodology to determine the quality of the synthetic data and the right settings for properly training the AI. Once a large set of trustworthy data can be generated the problem of stochastic optimization can be tackled. The optimal IES configuration is highly dependent on the rare high peaks or deep depths of the net demand (grid electricity demand less variable renewable energy [VRE] production). Using an unbiased random sampling of the synthetic data, these extremes are very difficult to generate and therefore the optimization can be unrepresentative and inaccurate. GWU has started an approach to increase the likelihood of generating these rare events with the proper associated probabilistic weight. Both of these projects represent a step forward in achieving the capability to properly size the IESs and to properly capture the value that these systems can provide to the grid by absorbing volatility of net demand without disproportionately increasing the cost of maintaining grid reliability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Higher-moment buffered probability

In stochastic optimization, probabilities naturally arise as cost functionals and chance constraints. Unfortunately, these functions are difficult to handle both theoretically and computationally. The buffered probability of failure and its subsequent extensions were developed as numerically tractable, conservative surrogates for probabilistic computations. In this manuscript, we introduce the higher-moment buffered probability. Whereas the buffered probability is defined using the Conditional Value-at-Risk, the higher-moment buffered probability is defined using Higher-Moment Coherent Risk measures. In this way, the higher-moment buffered probability encodes information about the magnitude of tail moments, not simply the tail average. We prove that the higher-moment buffered probability is closed, monotonic, quasi-convex and can be computed by solving a smooth one-dimensional convex optimization problem. These properties enable smooth reformulations of both higher-moment buffered probability cost functionals and constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tractometry of the Human Connectome Project: resources and insights

The Human Connectome Project (HCP) has become a keystone dataset in human neuroscience, with a plethora of important applications in advancing brain imaging methods and an understanding of the human brain. We focused on tractometry of HCP diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI) data. We used an open-source software library (pyAFQ; https://yeatmanlab.github.io/pyAFQ) to perform probabilistic tractography and delineate the major white matter pathways in the HCP subjects that have a complete dMRI acquisition (n = 1,041). We used diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) to model white matter microstructure in each voxel of the white matter, and extracted tract profiles of DKI-derived tissue properties along the length of the tracts. We explored the empirical properties of the data: first, we assessed the heritability of DKI tissue properties using the known genetic linkage of the large number of twin pairs sampled in HCP. Second, we tested the ability of tractometry to serve as the basis for predictive models of individual characteristics (e.g., age, crystallized/fluid intelligence, reading ability, etc.), compared to local connectome features. To facilitate the exploration of the dataset we created a new web-based visualization tool and use this tool to visualize the data in the HCP tractometry dataset. Finally, we used the HCP dataset as a test-bed for a new technological innovation: the TRX file-format for representation of dMRI-based streamlines. We released the processing outputs and tract profiles as a publicly available data resource through the AWS Open Data program's Open Neurodata repository. We found heritability as high as 0.9 for DKI-based metrics in some brain pathways. We also found that tractometry extracts as much useful information about individual differences as the local connectome method. We released a new web-based visualization tool for tractometry—“Tractoscope” (https://nrdg.github.io/tractoscope). We found that the TRX files require considerably less disk space-a crucial attribute for large datasets like HCP. In addition, TRX incorporates a specification for grouping streamlines, further simplifying tractometry analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Direct-Use Geothermal Feasibility Study for Hawthorne NV

The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Development of a bayesian belief network model for the software reliability assessment of nuclear digital I and C safety systems - 206

Since the digital instrumentation and control systems are expected to play an important role for the safety systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs), the need has emerged to not only establish a basis for incorporating software behavior into digital I and C system reliability models, but also to quantify the failure probability of the software used in NPP digital protection systems. In this study, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model is developed to quantitatively assess software reliability by estimating the number of faults in a software program considering its software development life cycle (SDLC). The model structure and parameters are established based on the information applicable to NPP safety-related systems and the evidence used to construct and quantify the BBN model was collected from three stages of expert elicitation. The software failure probability is estimated from the number of residual defects in a software program at the end of SDLC phase. As a case study, the BBN model was applied to quantify the software reliability of a typical digital protection software having the size of 50 function points and having the Medium development and validation and verification (V and V) qualities. The developed model can be applied to estimate the failure probability for both developing and deployed safety-related NPP software, and such results can be used to evaluate the quality of the digital I and C systems in addition to estimating potential reactor risk due to software failure. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Convolution Correction Factor Adjustments on Static PRA Models for Event Assessment

Current probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models will contain cut sets that have time-constrained basic events such as switched components, recovery of failed components, and failures in time. For these cut sets that have multiple time-constrained events that interact (e.g., offsite power recover at the same time as multiple diesel generators fail to run), there is the possibility that the minimal cut set quantified result is too large. Since current PRA models typically assume that the accident scenario starts at “time zero,” the fails-to-run basic events use this starting time as the basis for their respective reliability models. Over time, the standard practice was to recognize this issue and accept it as part of the conservatism built into the event tree/fault tree PRA models. However, now that these same PRA models are being used in a regulatory forum, this conservatism needs to be addressed. Further, this issue exists not only for the baseline PRA results, but for deficiencies that have been observed or those that have the potential of occurrence, whether the deficiency is complete failure or just a degraded condition. We have found that this conservatism becomes very important when evaluating scenarios such as station blackout sequences and other loss of offsite power sequences. This paper will address the theory and implemented process used by the Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) PRA software. Starting with SAPHIRE version 8, the process that was developed is to calculate a “convolution correction factor” based on three distinct calculations. The first calculation is the cut set based frequency calculated via the standard event tree/fault tree PRA model (assuming all run failures start at time equal to zero). The second calculation is to perform the exact time-constrained calculation by integrating the component failure models over the time period of interest (e.g., time to recover, a mission time). For example, this exact calculation for the case of the diesel generators is to convolve their failure models with the offsite power recovery model to obtain the exact frequency. The third calculation is to produce the convolution correction factor by dividing the exact frequency calculation by the standard cut set frequency. This convolution correction factor is then applied to the PRA cut sets in order to remove the time-constrained conservatism. The process used to obtain the convolution correction factor for the baseline PRA is important; however, in this paper we also describe what happens when there is degradation of a component or a potential deficiency. These issues become very important in order to ensure that the convolution correction factor is re-calculated correctly. If the correction factor does not get re-calculated and the same baseline convolution correction factor is used, the final analysis result could be over conservative or under conservative. This paper will discuss how these issues are addressed and provide examples on how SAPHIRE automatically makes the necessary adjustments. MathCad verification results can be computed using the provided equations and input data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analysis of human performance differences between students and operators when using the Rancor Microworld simulator

Here, from within the umbrella of the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework, this paper analyzes human performance differences between professional and student operators when using a simplified simulator (i.e., Rancor Microworld). This paper represents a crucial step in understanding the fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. This paper explores a randomized factorial experimental design that features two independent variables: participant type and event class. Six human performance measurements are considered in the experiment. The experiment is conducted using 20 professional reactor operators employed at actual nuclear power plants (NPPs), along with 20 trained students. The experimental data are analyzed via statistical analysis methods. Finally, this paper examines the differences in human performance between actual operators and students when using Rancor Microworld.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Resilient Transmission Hardening Planning in a High Renewable Penetration Erra

Hardening components in transmission systems is a practice to improve system resilience against possible disturbances caused by natural disasters. In a power system with a very high penetration of renewable energy, the system hardening will be further complicated by the uncertainty and variability of renewable energy. In this paper, we study the transmission line hardening planing problem in the context of probabilistic power flows injected by the high penetration of renewable energy. We assume that the probabilistic information of renewable energy is incomplete and ambiguous and propose a data-driven approach to approximate the renewable uncertainty sets. We then extend the N - 1 security criteria to multiple simultaneous contingencies and seek to prepare a hardening plan for the worst-case scenarios. A two-stage data-driven stochastic model is formulated by considering the joint worst-case wind output distribution and transmission line contingencies. Then, we apply the Column-and-Constraints generation method to solve the proposed model. To test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct experiments on 24-bus and 118-bus test systems. We numerically show that the data-driven approach can effectively address the uncertainty ambiguity and the proposed approach can produce effective hardening plans that improve the system resilience.

Column-and-Constraint generation↗