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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Advanced EVA Suit Camera System Development Project

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a new extra-vehicular activity (EVA) suit known as the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit. All of the improvements to the EVA Suit provide the opportunity to update the technology of the video imagery. My summer internship project involved improving the video streaming capabilities of the cameras that will be used on the Z2 Suit for data acquisition. To accomplish this, I familiarized myself with the architecture of the camera that is currently being tested to be able to make improvements on the design. Because there is a lot of benefit to saving space, power, and weight on the EVA suit, my job was to use Altium Design to start designing a much smaller and simplified interface board for the camera's microprocessor and external components. This involved checking datasheets of various components and checking signal connections to ensure that this architecture could be used for both the Z2 suit and potentially other future projects. The Orion spacecraft is a specific project that may benefit from this condensed camera interface design. The camera's physical placement on the suit also needed to be determined and tested so that image resolution can be maximized. Many of the options of the camera placement may be tested along with other future suit testing. There are multiple teams that work on different parts of the suit, so the camera's placement could directly affect their research or design. For this reason, a big part of my project was initiating contact with other branches and setting up multiple meetings to learn more about the pros and cons of the potential camera placements we are analyzing. Collaboration with the multiple teams working on the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit is absolutely necessary and these comparisons will be used as further progress is made for the overall suit design. This prototype will not be finished in time for the scheduled Z2 Suit testing, so my time was also spent creating a case for the original interface board that is already being used. This design is being done by use of Creo 2. Due to time constraints, I may not be able to complete the 3-D printing portion of this design, but I was able to use my knowledge of the interface board and Altium Design to help in the task. As a side project, I assisted another intern in selecting and programming a microprocessor to control linear actuators. These linear actuators will be used to move various increments of polyethylene for controlled radiation testing. For this, we began the software portion of the project using the Arduino's coding environment to control an Arduino Due and H-Bridge components. Along with the obvious learning of computer programs such as Altium Design and Creo 2, I also acquired more skills with networking and collaborating with others, being able to multi-task because of responsibilities to work on various projects, and how to set realistic goals in the work place. Like many internship projects, this project will be continued and improved, so I also had the chance to improve my organization and communication skills as I documented all of my meetings and research. As a result of my internship at JSC, I desire to continue a career with NASA, whether that be through another internship or possibly a co-op. I am excited to return to my university and continue my education in electrical engineering because of all of my experiences at JSC.

Mock, Kyla↗
NASA NTRS2018

Collaborative Systems Engineering in the Ascent Abort-2 Crew Module/Separation Ring Project

Generally speaking, systems engineering (SE) tool-sets face a dilemma balancing power and accessibility. High-powered SE tools (MagicDraw, Cradle, Core, etc.) tend to be specialized and are available only to highly trained Systems Engineers, and/or through the use of a 'back room' developer team making the output products available to the broader team. On the other hand, highly accessible tools (MS Word, Excel, etc.) do not have the power to implement SE in a rigorous manner. NASA has to test all aspects of the new human-rated Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle spacecraft prior to its first crewed mission. The test program includes uncrewed launch abort flight tests to demonstrate the capability to save the crew in the event that a launch failure occurs. Orion's second abort flight test will be a low-altitude flight test known as "Ascent Abort 2 (AA-2)." This test is currently scheduled to be carried out at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station's Space Launch Complex 46 (SLC-46) in Florida in 2019. NASA's in-house AA-2 Crew Module and Separation Ring (CSR) Team is producing the crew module and separation ring. Operating jointly as both an Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project and an Orion Project, the CSR project charter includes development of innovative, streamlined and generally more efficient practices for creation of flight hardware and software. One result of this tasking has been development of a collaborative and data-centric systems engineering environment within the team's shared web environment (Microsoft SharePoint). Through the use of built-in, 'out of the box capabilities' present in MS SharePoint, the CSR Systems Engineering team has created (with some limited developer support) a data-centric architecture for the project's SE implementation, including functional and interface analysis, requirements development and management, risk management, verification planning and management, test results, and end item management. Data elements are linked between data structures so as to define and control relationships between item types, link requirements to parents and children, and link tests to the requirements that they verify. The overall project team integration is increased by also linking SE content to project management content over the project life cycle, including team communication, action items, configuration management, decisional and meeting materials, and life cycle reviews. This presentation will provide an overview of the collaborative SE environment, showing how it provides the power for a number of SE tasks while still providing the accessibility and transparency to allow the full project team to collaborate and succeed. Given the project phase, we'll be able to present a nearly full lifecycle discussion, from concept through verification and approaching delivery.

Systems Engineering environments↗
DOE OSTI2024

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

ALICE-USA Barrel Tracking Upgrade (Project Final Report)

The ALICE-USA Barrel Tracking Upgrade (BTU) project began in 2015 to participate in a major upgrade of the Time Projection Chamber (TPC) and the Inner Tracking System (ITS) of the ALICE Experiment at CERN in Geneva, Switzerland. This upgrade increased the maximum readout rate of the ALICE detector to accommodate the increased heavy ion interaction rates following Long Shutdown 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, and greatly improved the vertexing performance of the detector. The original scope was completed and reviewed in November 2019. The BTU project document BTU.19.v1 "ALICE Barrel Tracking Upgrade Project Closeout / Transition to Operations (2019)" from November 2019 describes the status in detail and is attached as Appendix 1 below. At that point, all delivery milestones had been met on time, all Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) of the project had been satisfied, and the project was under budget. Several subsequent No Cost Extensions (NCEs) supported integration and pre-commissioning of the BTU project deliverables at CERN, as well as study and assessment of performance with Pb-Pb collisions at 50 kHz. The BTU project was successfully completed on 30 September 2024.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2016

Implementing Effective Mission Systems Engineering Practices During Early Project Formulation Phases

Developing and implementing a plan for a NASA space mission can be a complicated process. The needs, goals, and objectives of any proposed mission or technology must be assessed early in the Project Life Cycle. The key to successful development of a space mission or flight project is the inclusion of systems engineering in early project formulation, namely during Pre-phase A, Phase A, and Phase B of the NASA Project Life Cycle. When a space mission or new technology is in pre-development, or "pre-Formulation", feasibility must be determined based on cost, schedule, and risk. Inclusion of system engineering during project formulation is key because in addition to assessing feasibility, design concepts are developed and alternatives to design concepts are evaluated. Lack of systems engineering involvement early in the project formulation can result in increased risks later in the implementation and operations phases of the project. One proven method for effective systems engineering practice during the pre-Formulation Phase is the use of a mission conceptual design or technology development laboratory, such as the Mission Design Lab (MDL) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This paper will review the engineering process practiced routinely in the MDL for successful mission or project development during the pre-Formulation Phase.

Processes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Low-Cost, High-Performance, Easy-To-Apply, Non-Flammable, Inorganic Phase Change Material (PCM) Technology (Project Final Report)

This report describes a 45-months long research program focused on the development of novel, easy-to-apply, non-flammable, and high-performance inorganic phase change materials (PCMs) for building and industrial applications. The University of Massachusetts Lowell (UML) formed a world-class team consisting of researchers form InsolCorp (only N. American manufacturer of inorganic PCM systems for building applications), and a group of industrial advisors, to develop a universal/multipurpose, simple-to-manufacture and cost-effective PCM technology. The project team expects that the results of this work will spur in the future the adoption of thermal storage materials – a key building energy saving technology as identified by DOE BTO – for a variety of building envelope applications. The main goal of this project was to demonstrate a suite of low-cost, multipurpose, and durable inorganic PCM formulations with phase transition temperatures encompassing typical building applications (between +5 o C and +55 o C). The first objective was to design, fabricate, and experimentally validate a performance of inexpensive, durable, highly efficient, non-flammable, and easy to manufacture PCMs. To allow a variety of building applications, the project team focused on formulations that exhibit repeatable phase transitions between +5 o C and +55 o C. To follow the DOE BTO cost efficiency target without compromising thermal performance, our work was based on inorganic compounds (mostly salt hydrates) and their blends, which represent a fraction of the cost of most of organic PCMs with about twice as high density as well as significantly higher thermal conductivity and phase change enthalpy. The second objective was to develop easy-to-manufacture and -install packaging/encapsulation designs that are 1) a superior barrier to current state-of-the-art macro-packaging, which significantly reduces the risk of loss of hydration water and PCM leak, and 2) optimal in enhancing the heat exchange rates with the surroundings and within the PCM core to ensure complete charging/discharging of the entire PCM within the product. Finally, the project’s intend was to scale-up the fabrication process to demonstrate installation on system-scale applications, and to validate the performance under field conditions. This work aimed at developing low-cost, high-energy storage, and reliable latent heat storage technology for building applications. This development was realized by formulating and integrating the following two technology components: 1) inorganic salt hydrate based PCMs that have high latent enthalpies and are low-cost and durable, and 2) PCM encapsulation (packaging) technology that maximizes PCM concentration and enhances heat transport characteristics in the product and with the external environment/materials. High thermal storage capacity, low cost and fire resistance are key to the building market entry for PCM technology. Therefore, the project’s focus was on salt-hydrate-based formulations which satisfy all these criteria. Packaging and/or encapsulation of PCM is a key processing step. The project team recognized that a low-cost and simple-to-manufacture salt hydrate-based PCM technology holds the best chance to be successful in the building construction market, a market which is traditionally extremely sensitive to cost and where commodity thermal insulations are the benchmark for envelope-related energy saving measures. That is why, in this project, the main intention was to minimize the production cost and maximize the product energy storage density without sacrificing the PCM performance. It was achieved through: 1. Minimizing the non-PCM components (plastics, additives, packaging/encapsulation materials, etc.) because they are significantly more expensive than salt hydrates, 2. Using highly thermally conductive and lightweight PCM carrier (packaging material) to facilitate more complete phase cycling, and 3. Optimizing the thickness and minimizing air spaces in product design (such as in pouched PCM). For this purpose, our approach was to enable an easy system design, including selection of the PCM operating temperatures, optimizing the necessary heat storage capacity (by stacking together several layers of PCM products), and if needed, a synchronized usage of PCM products of different temperatures. A specially designed, robust, highly thermally conducting and highly impermeable packaging (to retain salt hydrate water during phase transition cycles) was designed and tested to increase the overall system thermal performance and durability. All PCM products developed during this project were tested in both lab scale and in full scale field conditions. It is expected that, after further developments and commercialization, the developed PCM technologies may be also applied in space conditioning, energy storage technologies, and heat transfer applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1971

System Definition Phase and Acquisition Phase Project Plan for Small Astronomy Satellite SAS-D

This Project Plan for the Small Astronomy Satellite (SAS-D) is Goddard Space Flight Center's plan for accomplishing the project. It is issued in compliance with NASA Handbook NHB 7121.2 and NMI 7120.1, dated May 4, 1970, Subject: Approval and Implementation of Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) Research and Development (R&D) Projects. The Project Plan, as approved by GSFC executive management and NASA Headquarters, is the project manager's charter and defines his specific plan of action. System definition phase activities of the SAS-D Project will be a continuation of the analytical work that established the overall feasibility of the project. The system concept derived from that analytical work is defined in the Phase A (Mission Definition Phase) technical report. System definition phase activities will include detailed engineering analysis and preliminary breadboarding necessary to establish a single project approach from the feasible approaches. This document will be revised at the end of the system definition phase to provide greater detail on acquisition phase planning and to specify a specific system design.

Donald A Krueger↗
NASA NTRS1971

Modular space station Phase B extension preliminary performance specification. Volume 2: Project

The four systems of the modular space station project are described, and the interfaces between this project and the shuttle project, the tracking and data relay satellite project, and an arbitrarily defined experiment project are defined. The experiment project was synthesized from internal experiments, detached research and application modules, and attached research and application modules to derive a set of interface requirements which will support multiple combinations of these elements expected during the modular space station mission. The modular space station project element defines a 6-man orbital program capable of growth to a 12-man orbital program capability. The modular space station project element specification defines the modular space station system, the premission operations support system, the mission operations support system, and the cargo module system and their interfaces.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design of components for the NASA OCEAN project

The goal of the Fall 1993 semester of the EGM 4000 class was to design, fabricate, and test components for the 'Ocean CELSS Experimental Analog NASA' Project (OCEAN Project) and to aid in the future development of NASA's Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The OCEAN project's specific aims are to place a human, Mr. Dennis Chamberland from NASA's Life Science Division of Research, into an underwater habitat off the shore of Key Largo, FL for three months. During his stay, he will monitor the hydroponic growth of food crops and evaluate the conditions necessary to have a successful harvest of edible food. The specific designs chosen to contribute to the OCEAN project by the EGM 4000 class are in the areas of hydroponic habitat monitoring, human health monitoring, and production of blue/green algae. The hydroponic monitoring system focused on monitoring the environment of the plants. This included the continuous sensing of the atmospheric and hydroponic nutrient solution temperatures. Methods for monitoring the continuous flow of the hydroponic nutrient solution across the plants and the continuous supply of power for these sensing devices were also incorporated into the design system. The human health monitoring system concentrated on continuously monitoring various concerns of the occupant in the underwater living habitat of the OCEAN project. These concerns included monitoring the enclosed environment for dangerous levels of carbon monoxide and smoke, high temperatures from fire, and the ceasing of the continuous airflow into the habitat. The blue/green algae project emphasized both the production and harvest of a future source of food. This project did not interact with any part of the OCEAN project. Rather, it was used to show the possibility of growing this kind of algae as a supplemental food source inside a controlled ecological life support system.

Wright, Jenna↗
NASA NTRS1993

Support of an Active Science Project by a Large Information System: Lessons for the EOS Era

The ability of large information systems to support the changing data requirements of active science projects is being tested in a NASA collaborative study. This paper briefly profiles both the active science project and the large information system involved in this effort and offers some observations about the effectiveness of the project support. This is followed by lessons that are important for those participating in large information systems that need to support active science projects or that make available the valuable data produced by these projects. We learned in this work that it is difficult for a large information system focused on long term data management to satisfy the requirements of an on-going science project. For example, in order to provide the best service, it is important for all information system staff to keep focused on the needs and constraints of the scientists in the development of appropriate services. If the lessons learned in this and other science support experiences are not applied by those involved with large information systems of the EOS (Earth Observing System) era, then the final data products produced by future science projects may not be robust or of high quality, thereby making the conduct of the project science less efficacious and reducing the value of these unique suites of data for future research.

Angelici, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aeronautics and Aviation Science: Careers and Opportunities Project

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration funded project, Aeronautics and Aviation Science: Careers and Opportunities has been in operation since July, 1995. This project operated as a collaboration with Massachusetts Corporation for Educational Telecommunications, the Federal Aviation Administration, Bridgewater State College and four targeted "core sites" in the greater Boston area. In its first and second years, a video series on aeronautics and aviation science was developed and broadcast via "live, interactive" satellite feed. Accompanying teacher and student supplementary instructional materials for grades 6-9 were produced and disseminated by the Massachusetts Corporation for Educational Telecommunications (MCET). In the MCET grant application it states that project Take Off! in its initial phase would recruit and train teachers at "core" sites in the greater Boston area, as well as opening participation to other on-line users of MCET's satellite feeds. "Core site" classrooms would become equipped so that teachers and students might become engaged in an interactive format which aimed at not only involving the students during the "live" broadcast of the instructional video series, but which would encourage participation in electronic information gathering and sharing among participants. As a Take Off! project goal, four schools with a higher than average proportion of minority and underrepresented youth were invited to become involved with the project to give these students the opportunity to consider career exploration and development in the field of science aviation and aeronautics. The four sites chosen to participate in this project were: East Boston High School, Dorchester High School, Randolph Junior-Senior High School and Malden High School. In year 3 Dorchester was unable to continue to fully participate and exited out. Danvers was added to the "core site" list in year 3. In consideration of Goals 2000, the National Science Foundation standards for quality of teaching, and an educational agenda that promotes high standards for all students, Aeronautics and Aviation Science: Careers and Opportunities had as its aim to deliver products to schools, both in and outside the project sites, which attempt to incorporate multi-disciplined approaches in the presentation of a curriculum which would be appropriate in any classroom, while also aiming to appeal to young women and minorities. The curriculum was developed to provide students with fundamentals of aeronautics and aviation science. The curriculum also encouraged involving students and teachers in research projects, and further information gathering via electronic bulletin boards and internet capabilities. Though not entirely prescriptive, the curriculum was designed to guide teachers through recommended activities to supplement MCET's live telecast video presentations. Classroom teachers were encouraged to invite local pilots, meteorologists, and others from the field of aviation and aeronautics, particularly women and minorities to visit schools and to field questions from the students.

Texter, P. Cardie↗
NASA NTRS2003

Academy Sharing Knowledge (ASK). The NASA Source for Project Management Magazine, Volume 11, March 2003

APPL is a research-based organization that serves NASA program and project managers, as well as project teams, at every level of development. In 1997, APPL was created from an earlier program to underscore the importance that NASA places on project management and project teams through a wide variety of products and services, including knowledge sharing, classroom and online courses, career development guidance, performance support, university partnerships, and advanced technology tools. ASK Magazine grew out of APPL's Knowledge Sharing Initiative. The stories that appear in ASK are written by the 'best of the best' project managers, primarily from NASA, but also from other government agencies and industry. Contributors to this issue include: Teresa Bailey, a librarian at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Roy Malone, Deputy Director in the Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Office at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), W. Scott Cameron, Capital Systems Manager for the Food and Beverage Global Business Unit of Procter and Gamble, Ray Morgan, recent retiree as Vice President of AeroVironment, Inc., Marty Davis, Program Manager of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in Greenbelt, Maryland, Todd Post, editor of ASK Magazine, and works for EduTech Ltd. in Silver Spring, Maryland, Dr. Owen Gadeken, professor of Engineering Management at the Defense Acquisition University, Ken Schwer, currently the Project Manager of Solar Dynamics Observatory, Dr. Edward Hoffmwan, Director of the NASA Academy of Program and Project Leadership, Frank Snow, a member of the NASA Explorer Program at Goddard Space Flight Center since 1992, Dr. Alexander Laufer, Editor-in-Chief of ASK Magazine and a member of the Advisory Board of the NASA Academy of Program and Project Leadership, Judy Stokley, presently Air Force Program Executive Officer for Weapons in Washington, D.C. and Terry Little, Director of the Kinetic Energy Boost Office of the Missile Defense Agency.

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