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At least 181 records · Page 10

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗

Empirical STORM-E Model

Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

Prospects for Chlorophyll Fluorescence Remote Sensing from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), scheduled to launch in July 2014, is a NASA mission designed to measure atmospheric CO2. Its main purpose is to allow inversions of net flux estimates of CO2 on regional to continental scales using the total column CO2 retrieved using high-resolution spectra in the 0.76, 1.6, and 2.0 nm ranges. Recently, it was shown that solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for gross primary production (GPP, carbon uptake through photosynthesis), can be accurately retrieved from space using high spectral resolution radiances in the 750 nm range from the Japanese GOSAT and European GOME-2 instruments. Here, we use real OCO-2 thermal vacuum test data as well as a full repeat cycle (16 days) of simulated OCO-2 spectra under realistic conditions to evaluate the potential of OCO-2 for retrievals of chlorophyll fluorescence and also its dependence on clouds and aerosols. We find that the single-measurement precision is 0.3-0.5 Wm(exp -2)sr(exp -1) nm(exp -1) (15-25% of typical peak values), better than current measurements from space but still difficult to interpret on a single-sounding basis. The most significant advancement will come from smaller ground-pixel sizes and increased measurement frequency, with a 100-fold increase compared to GOSAT (and about 8 times higher than GOME-2). This will largely decrease the need for coarse spatial and temporal averaging in data analysis and pave the way to accurate local studies.We also find that the lack of full global mapping from the OCO-2 only incurs small representativeness errors on regional averages. Eventually, the combination of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) derived from CO2 source/sink inversions and SIF as proxy for GPP from the same satellite will provide a more process-based understanding of the global carbon cycle.

vegetation agriculture satellite↗

Nitrate Deposition to Surface Snow at Summit, Greenland, Following the 9 November 2000 Solar Proton Event

This study considers whether spurious peaks in nitrate ions in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, SPE-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate ion peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies.

nitrate deposition↗

Modeling Insights into Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Water Vapor Source Conditions

Deuterium excess (d) is interpreted in conventional paleoclimate reconstructions as a tracer of oceanic source region conditions, such as temperature, where precipitation originates. Previous studies have adopted co-isotopic approaches to estimate past changes in both site and oceanic source temperatures for ice core sites using empirical relationships derived from conceptual distillation models, particularly Mixed Cloud Isotopic Models (MCIMs). However, the relationship between d and oceanic surface conditions remains unclear in past contexts. We investigate this climate-isotope relationship for sites in Greenland and Antarctica using multiple simulations of the water isotope-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE-R general circulation model and apply a novel suite of model vapor source distribution (VSD) tracers to assess d as a proxy for source temperature variability under a range of climatic conditions. Simulated average source temperatures determined by the VSDs are compared to synthetic source temperature estimates calculated using MCIM equations linking d to source region conditions. We show that although deuterium excess is generally a faithful tracer of source temperatures as estimated by the MCIM approach, large discrepancies in the isotope-climate relationship occur around Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum simulation, when precipitation seasonality and moisture source regions were notably different from present. This identified sensitivity in d as a source temperature proxy suggests that quantitative climate reconstructions from deuterium excess should be treated with caution for some sites when boundary conditions are significantly different from the present day. Also, the exclusion of the influence of humidity and other evaporative source changes in MCIM regressions may be a limitation of quantifying source temperature fluctuations from deuterium excess in some instances.

simulation↗

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

mathematical models↗

Model Sensitivity to North Atlantic Freshwater Forcing at 8.2 Ka

We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

simulation↗

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6-2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world4. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data-model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data- model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data-model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

Salzmann, Ulrich↗

Arctic Sea Ice Simulation in the PlioMIP Ensemble

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

simulation↗

The CO2 Abundance in Comets C2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P Jager as Measured with Spitzer

Carbon dioxide is one of the most abundant ices present in comets and is therefore important for understanding cometary composition and activity. We present analysis of observations of CO2 and [O I] emission in three comets to measure the CO2 abundance and evaluate the possibility of employing observations of [O I] emission in comets as a proxy for CO2. We obtained NIR imaging sensitive to CO2 of comets C/2012 K1 (PanSTARRS), C/2012 K5 (LINEAR), and 290P/Jager with the IRAC instrument on Spitzer. We acquired observations of [O I] emission in these comets with the ARCES echelle spectrometer mounted on the 3.5-m telescope at Apache Point Observatory and observations of OH with the Swift observatory (PanSTARRS) and with Keck HIRES (Jager). The CO2/H2O ratios derived from the Spitzer images are 12.6 +/- 1.3% (PanSTARRS), 28.9 +/- 3.6% (LINEAR), and 31.3 +/- 4.2% (Jager). These abundances are derived under the assumption that contamination from CO emission is negligible. The CO2 abundance for PanSTARRS is close to the average abundance measured in comets at similar heliocentric distance to date, while the abundances measured for LINEAR and Jager are significantly larger than the average abundance. From the coma morphology observed in PanSTARRS and the assumed gas expansion velocity, we derive a rotation period for the nucleus of about 9.2 h. Comparison of H2O production rates derived from ARCES and Swift data, as well as other observations, suggest the possibility of sublimation from icy grains in the inner coma. We evaluate the possibility that the [O I] emission can be employed as a proxy for CO2 by comparing CO2/H2O ratios inferred from the [O I] lines to those measured directly by Spitzer. We find that for PanSTARRS we can reproduce the observed CO2 abundance to an accuracy of approximately 20%. For LINEAR and Jager, we were only able to obtain upper limits on the CO2 abundance inferred from the [O I] lines. These upper limits are consistent with the CO2 abundances measured by Spitzer.

McKay, Adam J.↗

Measuring N2 Pressure Using Cyanobacteria Discipline: Geomicrobiology

The evolution of Earth's atmosphere has been governed by biological evolution. Dinitrogen (N2) has been a major constituent of Earth's atmosphere throughout the planet's history, yet only a few constraints exist for the partial pressure of N2 (pN2). In this study we evaluate two new potential proxies for pN2: the physical spacing between heterocysts and the isotopic signature of nitrogen fixation in filamentous cyanobacteria. Heterocyst-forming filamentous cyanobacteria are some of the oldest photosynthetic microorganisms on Earth, and debated fossilized specimens have been found in sedimentary rocks as old as 2 Ga. These organisms overcome nitrogen limitation in their aqueous environment through cellular differentiation along their filaments. The specialized cells that develop, known as heterocysts, fix the nitrogen and laterally distribute it to neighboring cells along the filaments. Because the concentration of the dissolved N2 available to the filaments correlates directly with pN2, any preservable physiological response of the organism to the changed N2 availability constitutes a potential proxy for pN2. In the laboratory, we have examined how pN2 is reflected in the heterocyst spacing pattern and in the isotopic signature of nitrogen fixation by subjecting the representative species Anabaena cylindrica and Anabaena variabilis to different N2 partial pressures during growth at constant temperature and lighting (in media free of combined nitrogen). We show experimentally that the distance between heterocysts and the nitrogen isotope fractionation measured in bulk biomass reflect the pN2 experienced by Anabaena cylindrica. Current work is investigating these responses in Anabaena variabilis. When heterocystous cyanobacteria fossilize, these morphological and isotopic signatures should preserve information about pN2 at that time. Application of this relationship to the rock record may provide a paleoproxy to complement the two existing geobarometers.

nitrogen↗

The Probability of False Go/No-Go Determined by GOES Proton Flux: Proposed Launch Constraints for Avoiding Damaging Solar Energetic Particle Events

Most space-bound hardware needs to be designed to withstand space weather events to some degree. Long-term predictability of space weather events, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections, are still a matter of theory so designers should assume a worst case event for their specific environment. In our analysis, we show preliminary results of the probability of encountering a false/true go/no-go based on a threshold launch and design proton environment. The goal in choosing a threshold launch environment is to avoid the chance of exceeding the design environment during vulnerable parts of the mission. Operationally, this method cannot predict damaging space weather but can aid in avoiding space weather events that are already occurring. The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) proton flux database is used as a proxy for the heavy ion fluxes, which impart a greater threat because of larger single event upsets and effects. Our use of protons as a proxy for heavy ions is justified on the basis of the correlation between their fluxes shown by a qualitative comparison of GOES proton integral fluxes at greater than 10 megaelectronvolts and ACE/SIS (Advanced Composition Explorer / Solar Isotope Spectrometer) heavy ion integral fluxes.

DeStefano, Anthony M.↗

The Impacts of Recent Drought on Fire, Forest Loss, and Regional Smoke Emissions in Lowland Bolivia

In the southern Amazon relationships have been established among drought, human activities that cause forest loss, fire, and smoke emissions. We explore the impacts of recent drought on fire, forest loss, and atmospheric visibility in lowland Bolivia. To assess human influence on fire, we consider climate, fire, and vegetation dynamics in an area largely excluded from human activities since 1979, Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NK) in northeastern Bolivia. We use data from five sources: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 active fire product (2001-2015) (MODIS C6), Global Fire Weather Database (GFWED) data (1982-2015), MODIS land cover data (2001-2010), MODIS forest loss data (2000-2012), and the regional extinction coefficient for the southwestern Amazon (i.e., B(sub ext)), which is derived from horizontal visibility data from surface stations at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) level (1973-2015). The B(sub ext) is affected by smoke and acts as a proxy for visibility and regional fire emissions. In lowland Bolivia from 2001 to 2015, interannual Drought Code (DC) variability was linked to fire activity, while from 1982 to 2015, interannual DC variability was linked to B(sub ext). From 2001 to 2015, the B(sub ext) and MODIS C6 active fire data for lowland Bolivia captured fire seasonality, and covaried between low- and high-fire years. Consistent with previous studies, our results suggest B(sub ext)t can be used as a longer-term proxy of regional fire emissions in southwestern Amazonia. Overall, our study found drought conditions were the dominant control on interannual fire variability in lowland Bolivia, and fires within NK were limited to the Cerrado and seasonally inundated wetland biomes. Our results suggest lowland Bolivian tropical forests were susceptible to human activities that may have amplified fire during drought. Human activities and drought need to be considered in future projections of southern Amazonian fire, in regard to carbon emissions and global climate.

Forest Loss↗

Long-Term Solar Activity Studies Using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.

N. Gopalswamy↗

Decadal-Scale Vegetation Change Driven by Salinity at Leading Edge of Rising Sea Level

As sea levels rise, low-lying coastal forests increasingly are subject to stressors such as inundation and saltwater exposure. At long timescales (for example, centuries), the extent of inundation and saltwater exposure will increase; however, on a decadal timescale, the role of these drivers may differ in both magnitude and direction. To investigate the drivers of decadal-scale vegetation change, we measured the changes in five metrics of vegetation composition and structure between 2003/2004 and 2016/ 2017 at 98 plots distributed across a vegetation gradient from coastal forest to brackish marshes (< 0.5–18 ppt). We used elevation as a proxy of inundation vulnerability and soil sodium concentration as a proxy of saltwater exposure, and we investigated relationships between these two variables and the change in vegetation conditions between the two sampling periods. Soil sodium concentration was a significant predictor of vegetation change for all five vegetation metrics, whereas the effect of elevation was not significant for any of the metrics. The one site that was affected by wildfire twice during the duration of the study shifted almost completely from forest to marsh with limited regeneration ofwoody vegetation observed in 2016/ 2017. Our results show that salinization in our system is a more important driver of vegetation change than inundation potential. Furthermore, the effects of drought-induced salinization could be amplified by the elevated risk of wildfire during droughts. Forecasting the response of coastal wetlands to rising sea levels will require a better understanding of the individual and combined effects of salinity, droughts, and wildfires on vegetation.

Taillie, Paul J.↗

Is There an Optimal CO2 Partial Column for Flux Inversions?

The fidelity of flux estimates from an atmospheric inversion depends on the ability of atmospheric transport models to simulate the measured quantity. For species such as CO2, with surface fluxes and a large network of surface measurements, this means correctly simulating the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is one of the most uncertain aspects of atmospheric transport modeling. In contrast, the simulated total column average mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) is largely insensitive to simulated PBL dynamics. Therefore, measurements of XCO2 provided by current and future short wave infrared (SWIR) greenhouse gas (GHG) satellites such as GOSAT and the OCO family would seem to be more appropriate to flux inversions, as far as minimizing transport model errors (the "noise") is concerned. Unfortunately, the flux-induced variation of CO2 (the "signal") is the largest within the PBL and smallest in XCO2. Therefore, assimilating XCO2 as opposed to PBL CO2 need not give us the strongest "signal to noise" in flux inversions. Recent work on GOSAT and OCO2 retrievals suggest that SWIR satellite spectra may be used to estimate a lower partial column CO2, which could be assimilated in a flux inversion, instead of XCO2.Here we report on a study to assess whether there is an optimal partial column average CO2, intermediate between PBL CO2 and XCO2, whose assimilation might yield the best signal to noise in flux inversions, where (as before) "signal" is the flux-induced variation and "noise" is the error in transport modeling. We simulate atmospheric CO2 with five different global transport models and a common surface CO2 flux over ten years. We consider the spread across the five models to be a proxy for transport model error (the "noise"), and the common variation of CO2 in all five models to be a proxy for the "signal". We compare these signals and noises at different spatiotemporal scales for different partial column specifications to investigate whether there exists an optimal partial column that has large surface flux-driven variations and yet is relatively insensitive to errors in transport models. Finally, we comment on the feasibility of estimating such a partial column from current and future SWIR GHG satellites in the light of recent work on vertically resolved CO2 from current SWIR GHG satellites.

Basu, Sourish↗

Maintaining Human Health for Humans-Mars

The Human Health Research Program states that Radiation is the most challenging hazard to human spaceflight beyond LEO. The International Space Station provides an analog for evaluating techniques for dealing with Altered Gravity, the Radiation Environment of the ISS is only about 45% of the deep space values where radiation due to Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) dominate the spectrum. The Moon and cis-lunar space are being considered as a Mars Analog training ground for preparing crews for human mission to Mars. Spending more than 200 days in deep space is considered unsafe based on our current proxy for lifetime radiation dose. The paper outlines a way forward for spending days training near the Moon and for completing roundtrip missions to Mars while remaining below the current proxy. In the first case, a GCR overcoat shields crews from radiation during cis-lunar activities before making fast transits without in-space GCR overcoats to and from Mars. This case requires continued maturation of low TRL propulsion and power technologies currently around 4 to 5 while depending on repeatable reductions in launch costs by a factor of 6 expected of current reusable rockets. The second case requires no new technology development except for the expectation that the next near-term generation of reusable rockets will reduce launch costs by a factor of around 14. Five trajectories and GCR overcoat sizes for all mission legs are presented herein to illustrate the opportunities to maintain human health for Humans-Mars missions.

Robert W Moses↗

CNES Large Scale SWOT Simulator: User's Tutorial for Terrestrial Surface Water Applications

The CNES Large Scale SWOT Hydrology Simulator creates proxy SWOT water surface elevations (WSE). A large portion of the effort required to run the CNES simulator is upfront in creating the simulator input. This tutorial describes the steps to create the simulator input and then run the CNES simulator. Since many applications will utilize a time series of proxy SWOT WSE, a short description of that process is included in the Appendix for advanced users.

Hydrology↗