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At least 181 records · Page 10

Advancing Additive Manufacturing Through Artificial Intelligence–Powered, High-Throughput, Nondestructive Characterization and Process Optimization

This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and ZEISS Industrial Metrology has demonstrated the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled x-ray computed tomography (XCT) to accelerate the qualification and certification of additively manufactured (AM) parts. At the core of this effort is Simurgh, an AI-powered XCT reconstruction framework jointly advanced by ORNL and ZEISS that integrates computer-aided design (CAD) models, physics-based simulations, and deep learning to overcome the long-standing challenges of metal artifact correction, long scan durations, and limited flaw detectability in dense and geometrically complex components. Simurgh enables high-throughput, high-quality 3D reconstruction from sparse and fast scans, which reduces XCT acquisition times by more than an order of magnitude and simultaneously improves defect detection limits by up to fourfold compared with industry-standard approaches. This capability reduces scan costs by more than 50%, lowers labor overhead, and makes XCT characterization economically viable for routine industrial use. By enabling reliable flaw detection in minutes rather than hours, Simurgh facilitates real-time feedback loops for process parameter optimization, which was highlighted in a recent npj Computational Materials (a Nature journal) issue. In the published study, more than 100 alloy coupons were characterized within a single day. This work represents a tenfold acceleration in the development of novel AM alloys and processes compared with conventional workflows. The ZEISS collaboration has also demonstrated the scalability of Simurgh to diverse application domains, including aerospace, nuclear, automotive, and biomedical components; in these applications, ensuring structural integrity is paramount. By drastically reducing barriers to XCT adoption, this partnership has laid the foundation for digital twins and data-driven certification pipelines and directly addressed bottlenecks in qualifying new materials and designs. Together, ORNL and ZEISS have shown that Simurgh advances the state of the art in nondestructive evaluation and aligns with the broader mission of enabling Industry 4.0 manufacturing ecosystems, in which intelligent, cost-effective, rapid quality assurance is integral to accelerating innovation and ensuring safety in critical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advancing Additive Manufacturing Through Artificial Intelligence–Powered, High-Throughput, Nondestructive Characterization and Process Optimization

This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and ZEISS Industrial Metrology has demonstrated the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled x-ray computed tomography (XCT) to accelerate the qualification and certification of additively manufactured (AM) parts. At the core of this effort is Simurgh, an AI-powered XCT reconstruction framework jointly advanced by ORNL and ZEISS that integrates computer-aided design (CAD) models, physics-based simulations, and deep learning to overcome the long-standing challenges of metal artifact correction, long scan durations, and limited flaw detectability in dense and geometrically complex components. Simurgh enables high-throughput, high-quality 3D reconstruction from sparse and fast scans, which reduces XCT acquisition times by more than an order of magnitude and simultaneously improves defect detection limits by up to fourfold compared with industry-standard approaches. This capability reduces scan costs by more than 50%, lowers labor overhead, and makes XCT characterization economically viable for routine industrial use. By enabling reliable flaw detection in minutes rather than hours, Simurgh facilitates real-time feedback loops for process parameter optimization, which was highlighted in a recent npj Computational Materials (a Nature journal) issue. In the published study, more than 100 alloy coupons were characterized within a single day. This work represents a tenfold acceleration in the development of novel AM alloys and processes compared with conventional workflows. The ZEISS collaboration has also demonstrated the scalability of Simurgh to diverse application domains, including aerospace, nuclear, automotive, and biomedical components; in these applications, ensuring structural integrity is paramount. By drastically reducing barriers to XCT adoption, this partnership has laid the foundation for digital twins and data-driven certification pipelines and directly addressed bottlenecks in qualifying new materials and designs. Together, ORNL and ZEISS have shown that Simurgh advances the state of the art in nondestructive evaluation and aligns with the broader mission of enabling Industry 4.0 manufacturing ecosystems, in which intelligent, cost-effective, rapid quality assurance is integral to accelerating innovation and ensuring safety in critical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lax-Oleinik-Type Formulas and Efficient Algorithms for Certain High-Dimensional Optimal Control Problems

Two of the main challenges in optimal control are solving problems with state-dependent running costs and developing efficient numerical solvers that are computationally tractable in high dimension. In this paper, we provide analytical solutions to certain optimal control problems whose running cost depends on the state variable and with constraints on the control. We also provide Lax-Oleinik-type representation formulas for the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi partial differential equations with state-dependent Hamiltonians. Additionally, we present an efficient, grid-free numerical solver based on our representation formulas, which is shown to scale linearly with the state dimension, and thus, to overcome the curse of dimensionality. Using existing optimization methods and the min-plus technique, we extend our numerical solvers to address more general classes of convex and nonconvex initial costs. We demonstrate the capabilities of our numerical solvers using implementations on a central processing unit (CPU) and a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). In several cases, our FPGA implementation obtains over a 10 times speedup compared to the CPU, which demonstrates the promising performance boosts FPGAs can achieve. Furthermore, our numerical results show that our solvers have the potential to serve as a building block for solving broader classes of high-dimensional optimal control problems in real-time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Intelligent Partitioning based Fully Parallel AC Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow

Today’s power grid is becoming more diverse and integrated with high-level distributed energy resources and smart control technologies that is creating a new set of grid management challenges in terms of large-scale, nonlinear, and non-convex problem modeling, complex and time-consuming computation, as well as difficult uncertainty handling. This project focused on solving a challenging multi-period security-constrained generation scheduling problem, which is of great importance for maximizing the social welfare of real-time dispatch, day-ahead market, as well as weekly planning of power systems. Our developed software explored parallel optimization algorithms for complex and realistic power system models, and develop fast, efficient, and robust grid optimization solutions on the high-performance computing platform that will enable increased grid economics, flexibility, resilience, as well as energy security in the United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗

Dynamic, symmetry-preserving, and hardware-adaptable circuits for quantum computing many-body states and correlators of the Anderson impurity model

We present a hardware-reconfigurable ansatz on N q -qubits for the variational preparation of many-body states of the Anderson impurity model (AIM) with N imp + N bath = N q /2 sites, which conserves total charge and spin z component within each variational search subspace. The many-body ground state of the AIM is determined as the minimum over all minima of O(N$^2_ q$) distinct charge-spin sectors. Hamiltonian expectation values are shown to require ω(N q ) < N meas. $\leqslant$ O(N imp N bath ) symmetry-preserving, parallelizable measurement circuits, each amenable to postselection. To obtain the one-particle impurity Green’s function we show how initial Krylov vectors can be computed via midcircuit measurement and how Lanczos iterations can be computed using the symmetry-preserving ansatz. For a single-impurity Anderson model with a number of bath sites increasing from one to seven, we show using numerical emulation that the ease of variational ground-state preparation is suggestive of linear scaling in circuit depth and subquartic scaling in optimizer complexity. We therefore expect that, combined with time-dependent methods for Green’s function computation, our ansatz provides a useful tool to account for electronic correlations on early fault-tolerant processors. Finally, with a view towards computing real materials properties of interest like magnetic susceptibilities and electron-hole propagators, we provide a straightforward method to compute many-body, time-dependent correlation functions using a combination of time evolution, midcircuit measurement-conditioned operations, and the Hadamard test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

An open-source data storage and visualization platform for collaborative qubit control

Developing collaborative research platforms for quantum bit control is crucial for driving innovation in the field, as they enable the exchange of ideas, data, and implementation to achieve more impactful outcomes. Furthermore, considering the high costs associated with quantum experimental setups, collaborative environments are vital for maximizing resource utilization efficiently. However, the lack of dedicated data management platforms presents a significant obstacle to progress, highlighting the necessity for essential assistive tools tailored for this purpose. Current qubit control systems are unable to handle complicated management of extensive calibration data and do not support effectively visualizing intricate quantum experiment outcomes. In this paper, we introduce Qubit Control Storage and Visualization ( QubiCSV ), a platform specifically designed to meet the demands of quantum computing research, focusing on the storage and analysis of calibration and characterization data in qubit control systems. As an open-source tool, QubiCSV facilitates efficient data management of quantum computing, providing data versioning capabilities for data storage and allowing researchers and programmers to interact with qubits in real time. The insightful visualization are developed to interpret complex quantum experiments and optimize qubit performance. QubiCSV not only streamlines the handling of qubit control system data but also improves the user experience with intuitive visualization features, making it a valuable asset for researchers in the quantum computing domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Raspberry Pi–powered temperature monitoring of growth chamber microclimates

While controlled environments are desirable for growing and measuring plants, growth chambers and greenhouses typically have microclimates that impact plant growth, development, and stress responses. Furthermore, opening and closing the doors of a controlled environment introduces variation in the environment, especially at temperature extremes, affecting both the measurements and the organisms within. Using multiple temperature data loggers to normalize results can be cost-prohibitive and rarely offers real-time feedback on temperature status. We used low-cost single-board computers, cameras, and temperature sensors to manage and capture growth chamber temperatures while acquiring plant image data. Detailed here are methods to document microclimates within a growth chamber so that data can be normalized to measured temperature information. This protocol describes a low-cost method for automated temperature monitoring, which enables both high-throughput measurements of temperature along with plant growth and stress responses via plant imaging.

Plant Sciences↗

Static actuator-sharing algorithm for concurrent control of multiple plasma properties

Simultaneous regulation of multiple properties in next-generation tokamaks like ITER and fusion pilot plant may require the integration of different plasma control algorithms. Such integration requires the conversion of individual controller commands into physical actuator requests while accounting for the coupling between different plasma properties. This work proposes a tokamak and scenario-agnostic actuator-sharing algorithm (ASA) to perform the above-mentioned command-request conversion and, hence, integrate multiple plasma controllers. The proposed algorithm implicitly solves a quadratic programming (QP) problem formulated to account for the saturation limits and the relation between the controller commands and physical actuator requests. Since the constraints arising in the QP program are linear, the proposed ASA is highly computationally efficient and can be implemented in the tokamak plasma control system in real time. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm is designed to handle real-time changes in the control objectives and actuators’ availability. Nonlinear simulations carried out using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in achieving multiple control objectives simultaneously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗

Pathfinding quantum simulations of neutrinoless double- β decay

We present results from co-designed quantum simulations of the neutrinoless double- β decay of a simple nucleus in 1+1D quantum chromodynamics using IonQ’s Forte-generation trapped-ion quantum computers. Electrons, neutrinos, and up and down quarks are distributed across two lattice sites and mapped to 32 qubits, with an additional 4 qubits used for flag-based error mitigation. A four-fermion interaction is used to implement weak interactions, and lepton-number violation is induced by a neutrino Majorana mass. Quantum circuits that prepare the initial nucleus and time evolve with the Hamiltonian containing the strong and weak interactions are executed on IonQ Forte Enterprise. Enabled by tuned model parameters, lepton-number violation is observed in real time, providing a clear signal of neutrinoless double- β decay. This was made possible by co-designing the simulation to maximally utilize the all-to-all connectivity and native gate-set available on IonQ’s quantum computers. Quantum circuit compilation techniques and co-designed error-mitigation methods, informed from executing benchmarking circuits with up to 2,356 two-qubit gates, enabled observables to be extracted with high precision. We discuss the potential of future quantum simulations to provide yocto-second resolution of the reaction pathways in these, and other, nuclear processes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design, Optimization, and Control of Floating Offshore Wind Farms for Optimal Energy Production (Final report)

The uncertainty and irregularity of ocean waves and the ocean environment is a major factor in the development of commercial scale floating wind turbines as the operation of floating structures in such an environment can lead to irregular and unpredictable loading, fatigue, and ultimately a reduction in the operational life of the turbine system which affects energy production over the lifetime of the turbine. Control solutions that can limit float motions and mitigate stressful events on the structure become essential for extending lifetime and limiting the operational uncertainty of a floating wind turbine. Digital twins are computational replicas of physical systems that operate in parallel with the operation of the physical system. Given advanced knowledge of a systems input, digital twins have the ability to predict the behavior of a system in advance, which can be valuable in the control of that system. In this project, we developed and assessed potential digital twin models developed in house and openly available (OpenFast) for use in the real time control of the six degree of freedom response motions of a floating wind turbine in ocean waves. Coupling these models with near-field real time irregular sea surface (wve) measurement/sensings and prediction models, we used the digital twin to predict how the floating turbine will respond to the incoming waves. Applying this information to a motion control system of the float, one can limit and control float motions to prevent undesirable loading events/large angular motions, thus increasing system life and ultimately contributing to optimizing energy production. Due to the computational intensity of operating a digital twin in real time, we investigated the use of artificial intelligence techniques to speed-up the processes of the digital twin, as well as the wave reconstruction/prediction models. Model tank testing at the University of Rhode Island and University of Maine both validated and demonstrated the developed techniques on simple float geometries and a scale model of the NREL 15 MW reference turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Chemical Recommender System: Replacement Suggestions for Small Molecules

The Chemical Recommender System (CRS) is an open-source, high-performance toolkit that enables real-time similarity searches across the complete PubChem database (over 50 million molecules) using commodity hardware. The CRS addresses critical limitations in existing chemical informatics platforms through a novel vector database infrastructure, extensible model integration capabilities, and complete algorithmic transparency. The system implements a vector database deployment with partitioned indexing that achieves a ~60x speedup over traditional approaches. A containerized model integration framework allows researchers to seamlessly incorporate custom predictive models into the full-scale search and scoring pipeline, while complete configurability of search parameters, filtering logic, and scoring functions provides capabilities not available in existing black-box solutions. Beyond structural similarity, the CRS integrates OPERA QSAR models for thermophysical and toxicity predictions, RDKit synthetic accessibility scoring, and user-defined models to compute weighted final replacement scores. The complete system is accessible through an interactive web application supporting real-time progress monitoring, post-processing score re-weighting, automated PDF reporting, and batch processing capabilities.

Nair, Parthiv Anand [Sandia National Laboratories ↗

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗

Synchrophasor Data Anomaly Detection on Grid Edge by 5G Communication and Adjacent Compute

The fifth-generation mobile communication (5G) technology offers the opportunities to enhance the grid real-time monitoring. The 5G-enabled phasor measurement units (PMUs) features flexible positioning and cost-effective long-term maintenance, without constraints of fixing wire. This paper is the first to demonstrate the applicability of 5G in PMU communication, and the experiment was carried out at Verizon non-standalone testbed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Advanced Wireless Communication lab. The performance of 5G-enabled PMU communication setup is reviewed and discussed in this paper, and the paper presents a real-time dynamic linear model (DML) based synchrophasor data anomaly detection application. Last but not least, the practicability of implementing 5G for wide-area protection strategies is explored and discussed by analyzing the experimental results.

5G, Synchrophasor data, machine learning, anomaly ↗

Chapter 4: Physically informed deep learning networks for simulating microstructure evolution of 3D polycrystals

As discussed in the previous chapter, high energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) is used to study the micromechanical evolution of a material during in situ loading. HEDM experiments have been used to verify crystal plasticity (CP) simulations [119, 91, 90, 120], for experimental planning, material design, and to further analyze experimental results. However, Fast Fourier transform-based CP (CP-FFT) or finite element-based CP (CP-FE) methods are often too slow to be used in real-time during an experiment. CP-FFT is faster than CP-FE simulations due to the absence of meshing, but can still take hours to simulate the response of a single volume depending on the size and number of strain steps [127]. Reducing computation time would create a larger exploration space in planning and design, and enable faster analysis of experimental results and real-time feedback during an experiment. This research expands upon previous works to develop a workflow for predicting the full-field evolution of a 3D polycrystal. The workflow is simplified from previous works to predict only orientation and elastic strain tensors (from which stress tensors are calculated). The network is physically informed through loss functions and network architecture for a more robust model. The orientation predictions are informed about the cubic crystal symmetry of the material by incorporating disorientation and misorientation information into the network architecture and loss. The Von Mises stress is used to enforce the correct stress-strain trends in the strain tensor predictions. Additional total strain steps from the elastic and elastoplastic region are included to better capture the stress-strain evolution at smaller total strain steps. Material and hardening parameters are additional inputs into the networks to further inform the network and to study the network’s ability to predict different materials other than those used for training.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

PV Generation and Load Forecasting for Adjuntas PR Community Microgrids

Existing frameworks to forecast time-series photovoltaic (PV) output power and consumer load for microgrid operations and controls assume a near-continuous availability of real-time input features from the field assets such as PV inverters, energy meters, and weather station. These incoming data points are used to periodically retrain models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window, be it one hour-ahead, one-day ahead, or one-week ahead. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. Hence, there is a need for programs that assume no availability of real-time microgrid asset data and still make reliable forecasts that can be used for decision-making. Such programs would be apt to function in extreme weather events such as hurricanes and would use lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance and ambient temperature, then compute PV power from those forecasts, as well as independently forecast consumer load. The codebase performs forecasting for the scenario of when the microgrid does not have a reliable access to forecasts or real-time observations of solar irradiance (I) and ambient temperature (AT) and load (Load) to be able to adequately forecast, in real-time, the PV power production or a business' load. In this case, using historical values of PV power and load, a univariate forecasting of generation and consumption are respectively made. The use-case in particular has two sub-scenarios: one, a normal 7-day ahead forecast where the unavailability of real-time data is assumed due to infrastructure issues such as loss of communication or sensor maintenance or service downtimes. Whereas a hurricane-caused unavailability of real-time data requires a second model trained specifically on historical hurricane days to be able to capture the extreme day behavior of generation in particular, and load if applicable. A gradient boosted regression tree comprises an ensemble of additive models that map between the input of historical values (be it irradiance, temperature, or load) and their corresponding output forecasts of a given horizon such that the individual learner predictions are summed up over the total number of such learners in the ensemble to produce an aggregate forecast. A weighting mechanism is applied to the training data in each iteration, where actual and forecast values are compared to penalize incorrect forecasts by increasing the weight and reducing it to reward correct forecasts. The code's benefits are that it: (a) accounts for a contingency where communication loss renders newly measured real-time data unavailable for model tuning and snapshot updates; (b) presents blind forecasting that recursively determines the next time-step value in a horizon using the forecast of the same attribute from a prior step; and (c) employs lightweight models that, once trained, can reliably generalize for different horizons, which make them suitable for enhancing the resilience of field microgrids prone to extreme events that encounter disruptions to data availability.

Sundararajan, Aditya [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗