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DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part II: Case Studies

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper that documents the Climate Model version 4X (CM4X) hierarchy of coupled climate models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Part I of this paper is presented in Griffies et al. (2025a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004861 ). Here we present a suite of case studies that examine ocean and sea ice features that are targeted for further research, which include sea level, eastern boundary upwelling, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice, Southern Ocean circulation, and North Atlantic circulation. The case studies are based on experiments that follow the protocol of version 6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis reveals a systematic improvement in the simulation fidelity of CM4X relative to its CM4.0 predecessor, as well as an improvement when refining the ocean/sea ice horizontal grid spacing from the 0.25° of CM4X‐p25 to the 0.125° of CM4X‐p125. Even so, there remain many outstanding biases, thus pointing to the need for further grid refinements, enhancements to numerical methods, and/or advances in parameterizations, each of which target long‐standing model biases and limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainties in Simulating Flooding During Hurricane Harvey Using 2D Shallow Water Equations

Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve the two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent the first‐principles approach to simulate all types of spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding, and their compound dynamics. High spatial resolution (e.g., () m) is needed in 2D SWE simulations to capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting in formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser spatial resolutions are used for large‐scale simulations of flooding, which introduce uncertainties in the results. It is unclear how the uncertainty associated with the model resolution compares to the uncertainties in precipitation data sets and assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact with other water bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources of uncertainties in 2D SWE simulations for the 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show that precipitation uncertainty and mesh resolution have more significant impacts on the simulated streamflow and inundation dynamics than the choice of the downstream boundary condition at the watershed outlet. We point out the viability to confine the uncertainty of coarsening mesh resolution by using the variable resolution mesh (VRM) which refines critical topographic features with far fewer grid cells. Specifically, in simulations with VRM, the simulated inundation depths over the refined region are comparable to that use the finest uniform mesh. This study contributes to understanding the challenges and pathways for applying 2D SWE models to improve the realism of flood simulations over large scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning of 27Al NMR electric field gradient tensors for crystalline structures from DFT

NMR crystallography has emerged as a promising technique for the determination and refinement of atomic coordinates in crystal structures. The crystal structure of compounds containing quadrupolar nuclei, such as 27Al, can be improved by directly comparing solid-state NMR measurements to DFT computations of the electric field gradient (EFG) tensor. The non-negligible computational cost of these first-principles calculations limits the applicability of this method to all but the most well-defined structures. We developed a fast, low-cost machine learning model to predict EFG parameters based on local structural motifs and elemental parameters. We computed 8081 EFG tensors from 1681 27Al crystalline solids using DFT and benchmarked them against 105 experimentally measured 27Al sites. Surprisingly, simple local geometric features dominate the predictive performance of the resulting random-forest model, yielding an R2 value of 0.98 and an RMSE of 0.61 MHz for CQ, the quadrupolar coupling constant. This model accuracy should enable pre-refining future structural assignments before finally validating with first-principles calculations. Such a catalogue of 27Al NMR tensors can serve as a tool for researchers assigning complex NMR spectra influenced by the nuclear electric quadrupole interaction.

Sun, He↗
DOE OSTI2026

Achieving strength-ductility synergy in hierarchical aluminum metal matrix composites via friction extrusion

We report the fabrication of aluminum metal matrix composites (Al-MMCs) with hierarchical architectures via friction extrusion (FE), a scalable, single-step, solid-phase processing technique. Precursor pucks containing 0–15 vol% Al₂O₃ particles were extruded into fully dense AA6061-based composite rods. The FE induced a tree-ring-like architecture of concentric particle-rich and particle-lean bands, yielding refined grains in particle-rich regions and coarser grains elsewhere. At the nanoscale, magnesium in AA6061 selectively reacted with Al₂O₃ particles to form virus-like nodes, improving particle–matrix bonding. This multi-scale design strategy, combining mesoscale architecture, microscale grain refinement, and nanoscale interface engineering overcome the conventional strength–ductility trade-off. Tensile testing showed substantial increases in yield and ultimate tensile strengths while retaining high ductility ( > 20%). Enhanced strain hardening, driven by the accumulation of geometrically necessary dislocations at interfaces, contributed to the performance. The hierarchical microstructure produced by FE demonstrates a promising pathway for scalable fabrication of lightweight MMCs for structural applications requiring a combined high strength and ductility.

Kalsar, Rajib [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure–property relations of binary ferrite melts

Molten ferrite systems are used in the smelting and refining processes in steelmaking, to reduce the loss of metals in slags and to accelerate reaction rates. Here, high-energy x-ray diffraction experiments have been performed on aerodynamically levitated molten spheres of 43BaO–57FeO X and 43SrO–57FeO X at 1873 K using laser beam heating. The composition was varied within the range of x = 1–1.5 by changing the oxygen partial pressure of the levitation gas. The corresponding x-ray pair distribution functions have been interpreted using empirical potential structure refinement (EPSR) modeling. In oxygen-rich melts (x = 1.5), our EPSR models indicate very similar structures for the different alkaline-earth liquids, with both the Ba–O and Sr–O coordination numbers to be ∼8.4 and the total Fe–O coordination numbers ∼5.7. However, our models show that in reducing environments, the Fe 3+ and Fe 2+ ions exhibit very different behaviors in the Ba- and Sr-ferrite liquids. In the Ba-ferrite melt, the Fe 3+ –O coordination number decreases from 5.7 (at x = 1.5) to 5.2 (at x = 1.07), whereas Fe 2+ –O remains constant at ∼5.0 across the same compositional range. In the Sr melts, both the Fe 2+ –O and Fe 3+ –O coordination numbers rise from ∼5.7 (at x = 1.5) to 6.3 (at x = 1.07). All models show the structures to be heterogeneous with intertwined nanometer sized clusters or channels of Ba/Sr–O and Fe–O polyhedra that grow as oxygen content is reduced. Changes in the viscosity and electrical properties are interpreted in terms of the number of bridging and non-bridging oxygens associated with FeO 4 tetrahedra and concentration of charge carriers, respectively.

Benmore, Chris J. [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
DOE OSTI2025

An intercomparison of wall fluxes in a turbulent thermal convection chamber: Direct numerical simulations and wall-modeled large-eddy simulations enhanced by machine learning

Thermal convection in a closed chamber is driven by a warm bottom, a cold top, and side walls at various temperatures. Although wall fluxes are the source of convection energy, accurately modeling these fluxes (i.e., the wall model) is challenging. In large-eddy simulations (LESs), many wall models are traditionally derived from the canonical boundary layer, which may be unsuitable for thermal convection bounded by both horizontal and vertical walls. This study conducts a model intercomparison of dry convection in a cubic-meter chamber using three direct numerical simulations (DNSs) and four LESs with different wall models. The LESs employ traditional wall models, a new wall model employing physics-aware neural networks, and a refined grid near the walls. The experiment involves four cases with varying sidewall temperatures. Our results show that LESs capture the main flow features and the trends of mean fluxes. The physics-aware neural networks and refined wall grids can improve the temporally averaged local fluxes when the large-scale circulation has a preferred direction. Even without the local improvement of wall fluxes, the LES flow quantities (temperature and velocities) can still largely match those in DNSs, provided the mean flux largely matches the DNSs. Additionally, DNSs reveal that a variation in corner treatments has minimal impacts on the flow quantities away from corners. Finally, LESs underestimate the mean fluxes of the entire wall due to their inability to resolve corner regions, but their mean flux away from the corner can better match DNS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of resonant layer response in electron viscosity regime

We present a supplementary study of previous work in Waybright and Park [Phys. Plasmas 31, 022502 (2024)] which demonstrates a substantial effect of electron viscosity on the resonant layer response to non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations. A main refinement is to include a curl element of electron viscosity in the generalized Ohm's law. The refinement reveals a resonant layer response in the electron viscosity regime corresponding to slowly rotating and highly viscous plasmas.

Asymptotic analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Metal–bicarbonate ion pairing in alkaline aqueous solutions from multilevel embedded correlated wavefunction theory and molecular dynamics

In this work, we examine ion-pairing mechanisms of bicarbonates in alkaline aqueous solutions with the divalent metal ions most abundantly present in seawater, namely, Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ . We employ a rare-event enhanced sampling approach within first-principles molecular dynamics to explore regions of phase space spanning solvent-shared to contact ion pairs. Second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) corrections are subsequently applied in an embedding framework (EMB) to refine the electronic structure of stationary states and associated reaction barriers along the free-energy profiles while retaining the extended solvent effects at the density functional theory (DFT) level. Ca 2+ –HCO 3 − was previously hypothesized to exist in a solvent-shared ion pair (SSHIP) by DFT studies with an endergonic contact ion pair (CIP) formation; however, our EMB-MP2 refinement of the DFT ion-pairing pathways reveals that Ca 2+ and HCO 3 − form a virtually barrier-free CIP in alkaline solutions, with even more energetic ease than the widely studied Ca–CO 3 ion pair. We find qualitative agreement between DFT and EMB-MP2 for Mg 2+ —unlike Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ refuses to shed its strong hydration shell, thereby preferring a SSHIP state with a significant activation barrier to crossover to the CIP forms—a trait reminiscent of ion pairing in Mg–CO 3 and closely related to the kinetic limitations underlying the famous subject of the dolomite problem. Our study highlights the importance of improved electronic structure descriptions of liquids, modeled as a condensed phase of matter lacking in long-range crystalline order. It also strongly suggests that Ca 2+ –HCO 3 − CIPs are likely precursors involved in prenucleation of CaCO 3 mineral formation in seawater.

Sharma, Vidushi [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

MATEY: multiscale adaptive transformer models for spatiotemporal physical systems

Accurate representation of the multiscale features in spatiotemporal physical systems using vision transformer architectures requires extremely long, computationally prohibitive token sequences. To address this issue, we propose two novel adaptive tokenization schemes that dynamically adjust patch sizes based on local features: one ensures convergent behavior to uniform patch refinement, while the other offers better computational efficiency. Moreover, we present a set of spatiotemporal attention schemes, where the temporal or axial spatial dimensions are decoupled, to evaluate their baseline computational and data efficiencies and to determine whether adaptive tokenization can improve this performance. We assess the performance of the proposed multiscale adaptive model, MATEY, in a sequence of experiments. Compared to a full spatiotemporal attention scheme or a scheme that decouples only the temporal dimension, we find that fully decoupled axial attention is less efficient and expressive, requiring more training time and model parameters to achieve the same accuracy. The experiments on the adaptive tokenization schemes show that, compared to a uniformly refined model, the proposed schemes achieve comparable or improved accuracy at a much lower cost in the tested two-dimensional settings. While the asymptotic analysis suggests the potential for favorable scaling, empirical validation at substantially longer sequence lengths remains to be performed in future work. Finally, we demonstrate in two fine-tuning tasks featuring different physics that models pretrained on PDEBench data outperform the ones trained from scratch, especially in the low data regime with frozen attention.

adaptive tokenization↗
DOE OSTI2026

TEM Approaches for Microstructure-Informed Prediction of Mechanical Properties in Structural Alloys

Predicting the mechanical performance of structural alloys from their evolving microstructure remains a major challenge in materials science, particularly for nuclear structural materials, where irradiation-induced defects span multiple types and length scales and interact through complex mechanisms. The dispersed barrier hardening (DBH) [1] and Friedel–Kroupa–Hirsch (FKH) [2,3] models have been widely used to evaluate the hardening contributions of individual obstacles and to estimate tensile strength from quantified microstructures; however, when multiple size-dependent obstacles coexist and evolve, predicting temperature-dependent tensile strength becomes significantly more complex, and a fully consistent hardening model is still lacking. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) plays a central role in refining hardening models and enabling predictive assessments of tensile strength evolution by providing quantitative characterization of dislocations, irradiation-induced defects (e.g., dislocation loops and cavities), precipitates, and grain structure (Fig. 1.). These experimentally measured defect densities are incorporated into physically based hardening models with size- and shape- dependent obstacle strengths [4], using root-sum-square superposition for obstacles of comparable strength and linear superposition for dissimilar ones [5]. In addition, recent advances in TEM [6-8], including high-resolution imaging, 4D-STEM strain mapping, EDS/EELS elemental analysis, and flash-polishing-based TEM specimen preparation and extraction-replica methods (Fig. 2), further improve the accuracy of microstructural quantification. By comparison with prior studies as well as our own results, we show that when TEM-derived microstructural information is carefully integrated with physically grounded hardening models, yield strength (or irradiation-induced hardening) measured at room temperature can be predicted with good quantitative agreement across multiple alloy classes. In-situ TEM combined with high-temperature mechanical testing represents an important next step for refining hardening models by directly probing dislocation–obstacle interactions across varying irradiation doses and temperatures [9]. Because the barrier strength factor (α) depends on both temperature and obstacle size, it should not be treated as a constant fitting parameter; rather, it must be explicitly evaluated to achieve physically meaningful predictions of mechanical behaviour at operating temperatures. This presentation therefore discusses why all strengthening contributions (e.g., Peierls stress, solid-solution strengthening, voids, bubbles, dislocation loops, dislocation lines, and grain boundaries) must be considered collectively, why appropriate superposition methods are essential when obstacles possess different barrier strength factors, how hardness measurements can be meaningfully related to tensile properties, and how TEM-derived microstructural information can be systematically incorporated into hardening models. More broadly, it outlines a pathway toward microstructure-informed prediction of mechanical properties and supports the goal of establishing science-based tools for evaluating structural materials in extreme environments [10].

Lin, Yan-Ru [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000339991473)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ferrimagnetic Order in Tetragonal Antiperovskite Mn3GeN

The crystal and magnetic structures of the nitride antiperovskite M⁢n3⁢GeN reveals ferrimagnetic order stemming from a distorted kagome-derived lattice of the Mn atoms. Polycrystalline M⁢n3⁢GeN was synthesized via a solid-state reaction and characterized using neutron powder diffraction, dc magnetometry, and first-principles calculations. Rietveld refinement reveals near-stoichiometric composition (M⁢n3⁢Ge⁢N0.992⁢(7)) adopting a tetragonal 𝐼⁢4/𝑚⁢𝑐⁢𝑚 structure at 𝑇=500K and below, featuring axially distorted and tilted [NM⁢n6] octahedra that result in a buckled Mn kagome lattice. On heating, the tetragonal distortion and octahedral tilt angle decrease continuously before transitioning to the cubic 𝑃⁢𝑚⁢3⁢𝑚 antiperovskite phase at 𝑇≈527K. Neutron diffraction and magnetometry together reveal noncollinear ferrimagnetic ordering. For 30K≤𝑇≤500K, the magnetic structure is described by magnetic space group 𝐼⁢𝑏⁢𝑎′⁢𝑚′ (72.544), with inequivalent Mn1 and Mn2 sublattices that couple antiferromagnetically to yield a net moment. Density-functional theory-based calculations show that the different local moments originate from the bandwidths associated with distinct Mn–N bond lengths. Temperature-dependent refinements reveal distinct differences in the thermal disordering profiles of the Mn1 and Mn2 sublattices. These findings reveal a subtlety in the magnetic and structural behavior of M⁢n3⁢GeN, highlighting the interplay between structural distortions, magnetic ordering, and electronic structure in kagome-derived antiperovskite materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the impact of uniform rotation on the structure of neutron stars

Driven by recent laboratory experiments and astronomical observations, significant advances have deepened our understanding of neutron-star physics. NICER's Pulse Profile Modeling has refined our knowledge of neutron star masses and radii, while gravitational-wave detections have revealed key insights into the structure of neutron stars. Particularly relevant is the extraction of the tidal deformability by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration and the most recent determination of stellar radii by NICER, both suggesting a relatively soft equation of state (EOS) at intermediate densities. Additionally, measurements from the PREX collaboration and from pulsar timing suggest instead that the EOS is stiff in the vicinity of saturation density and at the highest densities accessible to date. But how stiff can the EOS be at these very high densities? Recent events featuring compact objects near the “lower mass gap” have raised questions about the existence of very massive neutron stars. Motivated by this finding and in light of new refinements to theoretical models, we explore the possibility that these massive objects may indeed be rapidly rotating neutron stars. Here, we explore how rotation affects both the maximum neutron star mass and their associated radii, and discuss the implications they may have on the equation of state.

Equations of state of nuclear matter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetic contribution of itinerant electrons to neutron diffraction in the topological antiferromagnet CeAlGe

We report a neutron diffraction study of the magnetic structure of CeAlGe, a candidate topological semimetal that hosts a noncollinear, multi-𝐤 magnetic phase. By measuring both low- and high-momentum-transfer magnetic Bragg peaks within a single experimental setup, we refine a magnetic structure model based solely on localized Ce moments. This model, which differs from that obtained using only high-𝑄 data, quantitatively reproduces the observed intensities, including the (000) zeroth-order magnetic satellites that are especially sensitive to subtle components of the modulation. While a contribution from itinerant electrons to the zeroth satellite cannot be definitively excluded, our analysis reveals no unambiguous evidence for such effects within experimental uncertainty. The refined magnetic structures exhibit topologically nontrivial winding patterns, derived from the fitted magnetic parameters, that support localized, particle-like spin textures with half-integer topological charges. These features provide a natural microscopic origin for the observed topological Hall effect, establishing CeAlGe as a model system where magnetism and topology are intimately linked.

Magnetic coupling↗
DOE OSTI2024

RMCProfile7 : reverse Monte Carlo for multiphase systems

This work introduces a completely rewritten version of the programRMCProfile(version 7), big-box, reverse Monte Carlo modelling software for analysis of total scattering data. The major new feature ofRMCProfile7is the ability to refine multiple phases simultaneously, which is relevant for many current research areas such as energy materials, catalysis and engineering. Other new features include improved support for molecular potentials and rigid-body refinements, as well as multiple different data sets. An empirical resolution correction and calculation of the pair distribution function as a back-Fourier transform are now also available.RMCProfile7is freely available for download at https://rmcprofile.ornl.gov/.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining magnetic structures in GSAS-II using the Bilbao Crystallographic Server tool k-SUBGROUPSMAG

The embedded call to a special version of the web-based Bilbao Crystallographic Server tool k-SUBGROUPSMAG from within GSAS-II to form a list of all possible commensurate magnetic subgroups of a parent magnetic grey group is described. It facilitates the selection and refinement of the best commensurate magnetic structure model by having all the analysis tools including Rietveld refinement in one place as part of GSAS-II. It also provides the chosen magnetic space group as one of the 1421 possible standard Belov–Neronova–Smirnova forms or equivalent non-standard versions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast event-based electron counting for small-molecule structure determination by MicroED

Electron counting helped realize the resolution revolution in single-particle cryoEM and is now accelerating the determination of MicroED structures. Its advantages are best demonstrated by new direct electron detectors capable of fast (kilohertz) event-based electron counting (EBEC). This strategy minimizes the inaccuracies introduced by coincidence loss (CL) and promises rapid determination of accurate structures. We used the Direct Electron Apollo camera to leverage EBEC technology for MicroED data collection. Given its ability to count single electrons, the Apollo collects high-quality MicroED data from organic small-molecule crystals illuminated with incident electron beam flux densities as low as 0.01–0.045 e − /Å 2 /s. Under even the lowest flux density (0.01 e − /Å 2 /s) condition, fast EBEC data produced ab initio structures of a salen ligand (268 Da) and biotin (244 Da). Each structure was determined from a 100° wedge of data collected from a single crystal in as few as 50 s, with a delivered fluence of only ∼0.5 e − /Å 2 . Fast EBEC data collected with a fluence of 2.25 or 3.33 e − /Å 2 also facilitated a 1.5 Å structure of thiostrepton (1665 Da). While refinement of these structures appeared unaffected by CL, a CL adjustment applied to EBEC data further improved the distribution of intensities measured from the salen ligand and biotin crystals. However, CL adjustment only marginally improved the refinement of their corresponding structures, signaling the already high counting accuracy of detectors with counting rates in the kilohertz range. Overall, by delivering low-dose structure-worthy data, fast EBEC collection strategies open new possibilities for high-throughput MicroED.

EBEC↗