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At least 181 records · Page 10

Detection of Isotopes in Urban Source Search Low-Count Gamma Spectra Using Hopfield Neural Networks

Source search campaigns involve measurements of background gamma-ray spectra with a mobile detector-spectrometer traveling along arbitrarily chosen trajectories over a wide screening area. Radiation counts are typically measured with a tellurium-doped sodium iodide [NaI(Tl)] scintillator detector-spectrometer in short acquisition intervals, usually 1 s. The objective is to detect orphan isotopes with half-lives shorter than those of the isotopes in the natural background. In principle, radioisotopes can be identified by their unique gamma emission spectrum. However, detecting orphan isotopes in search data is challenging because low counts measured in short acquisition intervals result in incomplete spectral lines. In this study, we investigate the performance of a Hopfield neural network (HNN) that implements an auto-associative memory for the detection of isotopes of interest in an urban search campaign. The HNN is trained on one example of gamma spectra with well-resolved spectral lines of each isotope of interest. During testing, the auto-associative memory implementation of the HNN processes low-count gamma spectra with partially complete isotopic lines by matching incoming measurements to the closest one of its memory-stored patterns. The testing database consisted of almost 10 000 1-s gamma spectra, including measurements of orphan isotopes 137 Cs, 241 Am, and 131 I, obtained during two urban search surveys with a NaI(Tl) detector. The performance of the HNN detection algorithm was evaluated using precision, recall, and F1 scores, and benchmarked with a multiple linear regression (MLR) identification algorithm. In conclusion, the test results demonstrate that HNN outperforms MLR in the detection of all the isotopes of interest.

Auto associative memory↗

Results of the joint NASA/NOAA AMTS/HIRS2 sounding simulation test

The relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infra-red temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high-spectral resolution infra-red sounder were compared. The sounding simulation test compared retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions. Test results for both conditions are summarized in tables showing RMS temperature errors for 18 tropospheric layers, 4 stratospheric layers, and surface skin temperature. The improvement of the AMTS instrument over HIRS2, particularly for cloudy conditions is demonstrated. The GLAS retrievals are more accurate than the operational NESDIS retrieval, especially with increasing cloud cover.

Susskind, J.↗

Strain-Gage Loads Calibration Parametric Study

This paper documents a parametric study of various aircraft wing-load test features that affect the quality of the resultant derived shear, bending-moment, and torque strain-gage load equations. The effect of the following on derived strain-gage equation accuracy are compared: single-point loading compared with distributed loading, variation in applied test load magnitude, number of applied load cases, and wing-box-only compared with control-surface loading. The subject of this study is an extensive wing-load calibration test of the Active Aeroelastic Wing F/A-18 airplane. Selected subsets of the available test data were used to derive load equations using the linear regression method. Results show the benefit of distributed loading and the diminishing-return benefits of test load magnitudes and number of load cases. The use of independent check cases as a quality metric for the derived load equations is shown to overcome blind extrapolating beyond the load data used to derive the load equations.

Lokos, William A.↗

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Non-NASA Center↗

Multiobjective Constrained Symbolic Regression for Predictive Modeling of Material Creep Behavior

When creep testing is repeated on samples of the same alloy under the same parametric conditions (i.e., stress and temperature), the resulting strain/time curves can vary from each other considerably as shown in Figure 1 [1]. The time required to creep test a material to rupture can extend to the order of years. Because of this, a numerical model that can quickly analyze the incomplete results of an ongoing experiment to predict 1) the incomplete portion of the strain/time curve leading up to the rupture point and 2) the rupture point itself would be of great utility to the materials community. Such a model has the potential to save 1) the time required to finish running the experiment to rupture 2) the associated monetary cost of finishing said experiment. Furthermore, it would be advantageous if the predictive model could give a parametric function modeling strain/time curves for material scientists to investigate the impact of the temperature and stress parameters on the resulting creep behavior. This work introduces a piecewise symbolic regression algorithm to predict the remainder of the strain/time curve. Preliminary results show good model performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Chiu, Long S.↗

Atmospheric moisture fields derived by satellite observations over the tropical Pacific Ocean

Values of precipitable water are retrieved over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean from TOVS infrared and microwave channel brightness temperature and OLR observations by means of stepwise linear regression. The most useful temperature and moisture sensing channels are pre-selected from sensitivity tests of a radiative transfer model. Numerous models are developed and tested against collocated radiosonde observations and Nimbus-7 SMMR precipitable water estimates. For RAOB comparisons, the best estimator used 15 TOVS predictors and captured 71.1 deg percent of the variance (+0.62 g/sq cm standard error) for column precipitable water; for precipitable water of 700-500 mb bulk layer, these values were 71.7 percent and +/- 0.17 g/sq cm. Little skill of estimated precipitable water was obtained for moisture above 500 mb. Regressions were less skillful against SMMR, unless collocation parameters were tightly controlled; SMMR was less acceptable than RAOB's because of observational drift and errors. Generally, the most skillful predictors were boundary layer brightness temperatures of TOVS channels and satellite estimated stability indices. 'Moisture channels' were hardly useful except for estimating middle and upper tropospheric moisture. Additional regression models were constructed testing the sensitivity to different observational and meteorological characteristics. Models which used some in situ observations surface observations or stabilities calculated from RAOB, were the most successful. The best of these explained 87.5 percent of the variance but the regression selected almost no TOVS channels, relying instead on conventional RAOB and surface observations. A set of four regression models were developed, stratifying atmospheric characteristics on the basis of collocated OLR values. These models improved the variance explained by 5.0 percent; the model associated with the highest OLR values (275 W/sq m less than or equal to OLR; that is, no cloud) showed only marginal skill. Precipitable water fields were generated from the best TOVS-only model for seven days in January 1983 and compared with SMMR-estimated fields. OLR fields and ECMWF precipitable water analysis. The TOVS regression model compared favorably to the SMMR analysis in amplitudes and features. It revealed more evolving synoptic signal than the ECMWF analysis. In synoptically active regions, it differed with respect to the OLR analysis, primarily because of actual differences in the vertical distribution of water vapor.

Chung, Hyosang↗

General purpose research rotor

An analytical study, under a NASA contract, is performed on an advanced flight research rotor (four-bladed, 54 ft in diameter, with bearingless rotor retention characteristics) to determine the sensitivity of total rotor characteristics such as vibratory hub loads, rotor horsepower, and blade loads, to parametric variability of the rotor configuration. The sensitivity of the rotor to various combinations of blade planform taper, percent of blade span that is tapered, tip sweep angle, built-in-twist, and torsional frequency is determined for specific configurations by randomly selecting combinations of these parameters. Characteristics of other intermediate rotor configurations are determined by a regression analysis. The results show that a wide range of rotor total performance characteristics can be obtained for a rotor trimmed to the same flight conditions. The regression equations predict total performance of the rotor very well and appear to be a useful analytical tool for rotor design optimization. Figures showing the results of the various tests are given along with a table of the regression coefficients.

Jones, R.↗

Combustion of solid fuel slabs with gaseous oxygen in a hybrid motor analog

Using a high-pressure, two-dimensional hybrid motor, an experimental investigation was conducted on fundamental processes involved in hybrid rocket combustion. HTPB (Hydroxyl-terminated- Polybutadiene) fuel cross linked with diisocyanate was burned with GOX under various operating conditions. Large amplitude pressure oscillations were encountered in earlier test runs. After identifying the source of instability and decoupling the GOX feed line system and combustion chamber, the pressure oscillations were drastically reduced from +/- 20% of the localized mean pressure to an acceptable range of +/- 1.5%. Embedded fine-wire thermocouples indicated that the surface temperature of the burning fuel was around 1000 K depending upon axial locations and operating conditions. Also, except near the leading-edge region, the subsurface thermal wave profiles in the upstream locations arc thicker than those in the downstream locations since the solid-fuel regression rate, in general, increases with distance along the fuel slab. The recovered solid fuel slabs in the laminar portion of the boundary layer exhibited smooth surfaces, indicating the existence of a liquid melt layer on the burning fuel surface in the upstream region. After the transition section, which displayed distinct transverse striations, the surface roughness pattern became quite random and very pronounced in the downstream turbulent boundary-layer region. Both real time X-ray radiography and ultrasonic pulse-echo techniques were used to determine the instantaneous web thicknesses and instantaneous solid-fuel regression rates over certain portions of the fuel slabs. Globally averaged and axially dependent but time-averaged regression rates were also obtained and presented. Several tests were conducted using, simultaneously, one translucent fuel slab and one fuel slab processed with carbon black powder. The addition of carbon black did not affect the measured regression rates or surface temperatures in comparison to the translucent fuel slabs.

Chiaverini, Martin J.↗

Combustion of solid fuel slabs with gaseous oxygen in a hybrid motor analog

Using a high-pressure, two-dimensional hybrid motor, an experimental investigation was conducted on fundamental processes involved in hybrid rocket combustion. HTPB (Hydroxyl-terminated Polybutadiene) fuel cross-linked with diisocyanate was burned with gaseous oxygen (GOX) under various operating conditions. Large-amplitude pressure oscillations were encountered in earlier test runs. After identifying the source of instability and decoupling the GOX feed-line system and combustion chamber, the pressure oscillations were drastically reduced from plus or minus 20% of the localized mean pressure to an acceptable range of plus or minus 1.5%. Embedded fine--wire thermocouples indicated that the surface temperature of the burning fuel was around 1000 K depending upon axial locations and operating conditions. Also, except near the leading edge region, the subsurface thermal wave profiles in the upstream locations are thicker than those in the downstream locations since the solid-fuel regression rate, in general, increases with distance along the fuel slab. The recovered solid fuel slabs in the laminar portion of the boundary layer exhibited smooth surfaces, indicating the existence of a liquid melt layer on the burning fuel surface in the upstream region. After the transition section, which displayed distinct transverse striations, the surface roughness pattern became quite random and very pronounced in the downstream turbulent boundary-layer region. Both real-time X-ray radiography and ultrasonic pulse echo techniques were used to determine the instantaneous web thicknesses and instantaneous solid-fuel regression rates over certain portions of the fuel slabs. Globally averaged and axially dependent but time-averaged regression rates were also obtained and presented. Several tests were conducted using, simultaneously, one translucent fuel slab and one fuel slab processed with carbon black powder. The addition of carbon black did not affect the measured regression rates or surface temperatures in comparison to the translucent fuel slabs.

Chiaverini, Martin J.↗

Health monitoring system for the SSME - Program overview

This paper considers the design of a health management system (HMS) program for enhancement of the safety of SSME operations during ground tests and space missions. The fault detection techniques based on time series, nonlinear regression, and clustering algorithms were developed and were demonstrated based on data from SSME ground test failures. The fault detection algorithms of the HMS system exhibited 100 percent detection of faults and an extremely low fault alarm rate, and were robust to sensor loss. A preliminary design of hardware architecture capable of supporting real-time operation of the HMS functions is described.

Hawman, Michael W.↗

Energy‐Water Asynchrony Principally Determines Water Available for Runoff From Snowmelt in Continental Montane Forests

ABSTRACT Changes in the volume, rate, and timing of the snowmelt water pulse have profound implications for seasonal soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater recharge, and downstream water availability, especially in the context of climate change. Here, we present an empirical analysis of water available for runoff using five eddy covariance towers located in continental montane forests across a regional gradient of snow depth, precipitation seasonality, and aridity. We specifically investigated how energy‐water asynchrony (i.e., snowmelt timing relative to atmospheric demand), surface water input intensity (rain and snowmelt), and observed winter ET (winter AET) impact multiple water balance metrics that determine water available for runoff (WAfR). Overall, we found that WAfR had the strongest relationship with energy‐water asynchrony (adjusted r 2 = 0.52) and that winter AET was correlated to total water year evapotranspiration but not to other water balance metrics. Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that none of the tested mechanisms were strongly related to the Budyko‐type runoff anomaly (highest adjusted r 2 = 0.21). We, therefore, conclude that WAfR from continental montane forests is most sensitive to the degree of energy‐water asynchrony that occurs. The results of this empirical study identify the physical mechanisms driving variability of WAfR in continental montane forests and are thus broadly relevant to the hydrologic management and modelling communities.

Webb, Ryan William↗

Evaluation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height From ERA5 Reanalysis With MOSAiC Observations Over the Arctic Ocean

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a crucial indicator reflecting the region of the atmosphere characterized by continuous turbulence. Here, we use radiosonde and surface meteorological observations (4–7 times per day, year-round measurements) during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition to derive the PBLH (PBLH MOSAiC ), and further evaluate the PBLH from the ERA5 reanalysis (PBLH ERA5 ). Comparisons between PBLH MOSAiC and PBLH ERA5 from different perspectives reveal that: (a) The overestimation of PBLH ERA5 when the sea ice concentration is >90% is significant with the centered root mean squared error reaching up to 201 m; (b) The difference between the two products is notably pronounced in cold seasons, while it is comparatively diminished in warm seasons; (c) In neutral boundary layers, differences in PBLH ERA5 are larger compared with stable and convective boundary layers. In addition, the analysis of error sources indicates that the bias of PBLH ERA5 is sensitive to the bias of vertical thermal structure and wind speed profiles in ERA5 data sets in all conditions. Finally, we find a Random Forest model effectively reduces the bias of PBLH ERA5 with the index of agreement reaching up to 0.71 in the test data set, while a multiple linear regression demonstrates comparable performance to the Random Forest model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Image-Driven Hybrid Structural Analysis Based on Continuum Point Cloud Method with Boundary Capturing Technique

Conventional approaches for the structural health monitoring of infrastructures often rely on physical sensors or targets attached to structural members, which require considerable preparation, maintenance, and operational effort, including continuous on-site adjustments. This paper presents an image-driven hybrid structural analysis technique that combines digital image processing (DIP) and regression analysis with a continuum point cloud method (CPCM) built on a particle-based strong formulation. Polynomial regressions capture the boundary shape change due to the structural loading and precisely identify the edge and corner coordinates of the deformed structure. The captured edge profiles are transformed into essential boundary conditions. This allows the construction of a strongly formulated boundary value problem (BVP), classified as the Dirichlet problem. Capturing boundary conditions from the digital image is novel, although a similar approach was applied to the point cloud data. It was shown that the CPCM is more efficient in this hybrid simulation framework than the weak-form-based numerical schemes. Unlike the finite element method (FEM), it can avoid aligning boundary nodes with regression points. A three-point bending test of a rubber beam was simulated to validate the developed technique. The simulation results were benchmarked against numerical results by ANSYS and various relevant numerical schemes. The technique can effectively solve the Dirichlet-type BVP, yielding accurate deformation, stress, and strain values across the entire problem domain when employing a linear strain model and increasing the number of CPCM nodes. In addition, comparative analysis with conventional displacement tracking techniques verifies the developed technique’s robustness. The proposed technique effectively circumvents the inherent limitations of traditional monitoring methods resulting from the reliance on physical gauges or target markers so that a robust and non-contact solution for remote structural health monitoring in real-scale infrastructures can be provided, even in unfavorable experimental environments.

Chemistry↗

A Survey and Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g. regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a complete description of future activity, while others, e.g. geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This Combined Precursor Method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+/-21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the next complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146+/-20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Solar Cycle Predictions

We currently lack a comprehensive model for the solar dynamo which might be used for predicting solar cycle activity levels. We can, nonetheless, predict these activity levels with some skill using a variety of techniques based on correlations between activity indicators at different times. A number of the techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time-scale have been tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month by month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the next cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. The combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle of a time well before activity minimum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude can then be used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle supports the idea of extended solar cycle in which the activity cycles overlap. While the current cycle is producing sunspots and active regions in the Sun's equatorial regions the next cycle is already actively influencing the geomagnetic field, The precise nature and source of this influence remains unclear.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, D. H.↗