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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling to Simulate a Combined Reforming Process for Syngas and Hydrogen Production

An Oxygen Transport Membrane (OTM) combined reforming technology for producing syngas and hydrogen integrates the advantages of multiple processes—steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR), an air separation unit (ASU)—into a single integrated technology. The OTM consists of a primary reforming tube, in which desulfurized natural gas is partially reformed by steam at high pressure in the presence of a metal catalyst. This process is followed in series by a ceramic OTM with a secondary reformer, in which residual methane reforms and O 2 - ions react with a portion of the CO and H 2 fuel to provide the heat to support both primary and secondary reforming. Although the OTM combined reformer technology for syngas and H 2 production has been substantially developed in the last decade, several challenges that affect the overall production efficiency and reliability are yet to be fully understood, addressed, and resolved. Therefore, developing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models that incorporate fluid dynamics, mass transport, kinetics, heat transport, and structural mechanics is critical to understanding and minimizing the probability of tube failures during the startup and operation. In this report, an exhaustive literature review was performed to survey the current state of technology for producing syngas and H 2 using either conventional or renewable energy sources. The feedstocks reviewed include natural gas and coal for the conventional technologies, whereas biomass, solar, wind, and nuclear energy for the renewable technologies. The existing industry-grade COMSOL multiphysics models of OTM were upgraded for the latest software release. In addition, they were improved to help achieve grid and solver independence and were successfully ported on the ORNL high-performance computing clusters to speed up their run times. A 42% reduction in the simulation run time was achieved. A new higher-fidelity CFD model of an OTM tube was developed in the StarCCM+ simulation platform. This new model was designed to simulate various physics using first principles, e.g., turbulent flow, heat transfer, and chemical reactions while avoiding unnecessary simplifications. The resulting predictions were qualitatively assessed and provided useful insights into the multiphysics complexity of an OTM tube.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy-efficient building technologies

Buildings consume one-third of the total final energy produced on the globe and are responsible for almost 40 percent of total carbon dioxide generation annually. The latest carbon dioxide burden of buildings approached 10 Gigatons in the year 2019. Energy-efficient building technologies are necessary to address the climate change induced by greenhouse gases and fulfill the growth in demand and continuously depleting energy reserves. To meet the net-zero carbon footprint goals, sustainable, renewable energy resources, efficient building technologies, and demand management strategies are needed. Achieving zero emissions will require buildings to be equipped with energy-efficient technologies while completely avoiding on-site fossil fuel consumption and being only powered by renewable energy. In this context, this chapter provides an overview of various building technologies, including envelopes, materials, equipment, appliances, and integration concepts, which will play a significant role in lowering the overall energy consumption in both existing building stock and new buildings. Specifically, the following areas are discussed in detail: emerging building envelope designs, thermal comfort and refrigeration equipment, bridging technologies for improved energy efficiency in the ongoing energy transition, hybrid renewable (photovoltaic) configurations, energy storage technologies, miscellaneous appliances, refrigerants, and renewable fuels. The influence of key design and operating characteristics on annual carbon footprint is presented.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single-Step Conversion of Ethanol to n-Butene over Ag-ZrO2/SiO2 Catalysts

Ethanol is a promising platform molecule for production of a variety of fuels and chemicals. Of particular interest is producing middle distillate fuels (i.e., jet and diesel blendstock) from renewable ethanol feedstock. State-of-the-art alcohol-to-jet technology requires multiple process steps based on catalytic dehydration of ethanol to form ethylene, followed by sometimes a multi-step oligomerization, and then hydrotreatment and distillation. Here we report on a new catalytic route in which ethanol is directly converted to n-butene (1- and 2-butene mixtures) over Ag-ZrO2/SBA-16, thus offering the potential for a reduction in the number of required processing steps versus conventional alcohol-to-jet technology. This catalyst system provides the balanced metal and Lewis acid sites required to selectively facilitate a cascading sequence of reactions that includes dehydrogenation, aldol condensation, Meerwein–Ponndorf–Verley reduction, dehydration, and hydrogenation. High conversion and selectivity toward either n-butene or 1,3-butadiene is achieved by tuning the hydrogen feed partial pressure and other process/catalyst parameters. With sufficient hydrogen partial pressure 1,3-butadiene is completely and selectively hydrogenated to form n-butene. The reaction mechanism was elucidated through operando-nuclear magnetic resonance investigations coupled with reactivity measurements. Combined experimental-computational investigation reveals how changes in silver and zirconium composition and the silver oxidation state affects reactivity under controlled hydrogen partial pressures and after prolonged run times. Finally, catalyst effectiveness also was demonstrated when using wet ethanol feed, thus highlighting process flexibility in terms of feedstock purity requirements. This work was financially supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, and was performed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830 and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under Contract No. DE-AC36- 08GO28308. Part of the work conducted by S. A. Akhade was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. DE-AC52-07NA27344. This work was partly supported through the PNNL-WSU Distinguished Graduate Research Program for ADW. NMR and XPS experiments were performed using EMSL (grid.436923.9), a DOE Office of Science User Facility sponsored by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research

Dagle, Vanessa↗
DOE OSTI2021

BATPAC--VERSION 5.0

Argonne National Laboratory has worked on electrochemical energy storage for several decades. The focus on lithium-ion chemistries started in the early 1990s, developing new materials, synthesis methods, and performance characterizations. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-EERE-VTO), Argonne has led with many advances. The experimental activities were complemented with multi-scale modeling that ranged from the atomic to the system (manufacturing processes and automobiles) level. The Battery Performance and Cost (BatPaC) model is a calculation method based on Microsoft¿ Office Excel spreadsheets that have been developed at Argonne for estimating the performance and manufacturing cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric-drive vehicles including hybrid-electrics (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and pure electrics. The effort is being funded by the Vehicle Technology Office (VTO), which is part of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) office of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE). BatPaC was first developed in 2007, was subsequently peer-reviewed, and it has served Argonne researchers and the greater battery community in studying the impact of material properties on performance at the pack level. With further developments, the model now allows the design of cells and battery packs for automotive applications, to meet performance requirements (power, energy, recharge time), and estimates the cost of manufacturing the designed batteries. Since the cost depends on the materials he design, and the manufacturing process, this bottom-up model/tool enables the user to study their effects. Designed or the lithium-ion cell and battery researcher, BatPaC helps answer many questions by being 1.Transparent in the assumptions made and the method of calculation 2.Capable of designing a battery specifically for the requirements of an application 3.Constrained by the physical limitations that govern battery performance 4. A bottom-up calculation approach to account for every cost factors. BatPaC predicts the impact of promising materials (and their properties) on the performance metrics relevant for the different applications. Researchers can use the specific capacities and the half-cell voltages of a particular set of electrode materials to calculate the mass and volume of a cell to develop a model incorporating the properties of all the other materials in the cell and the design of the cell enclosure. These calculations not only reveal the impact of an improved material but also enable researchers to calculate the material properties that would be needed to meet the performance criteria of a full battery pack. With this information, researchers can provide he battery industry with realistic expectations that will help it more successfully advance novel battery technologies an Applications.

AHMED, SHABBIR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural Gas Community of the Future (Final Report)

Nicor Gas, a subsidiary of Southern Company Gas and its parent company Southern Company, is developing the concept of the Carbon-neutral, Affordable, Resilient, and Equitable Community ("CARE Community") to address the challenges of accessibility and affordability of grid-interactive efficient buildings in historically disadvantaged communities. The CARE Community is a new construction net-zero energy and carbon neutral residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes with electricity and natural gas services in South Suburban Chicago, built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is assisting Southern Company to explore how energy efficiency, renewable technologies, and the reliability and resilience of natural gas can be combined and optimized in an islandable energy system as part of a broader effort to understand the role natural gas plays in future communities integrated with renewable energy and improved energy efficiency. The CARE Community will demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls can be combined with existing natural gas infrastructure to serve historically disadvantaged communities in a cold climate with low energy cost for affordable housing programs and enhanced resilience to withstand extreme weather. Homes will be a part of an islandable energy system, integrating multiple DER technologies such as solar panels, natural gas fuel cells, reciprocating natural gas engines, and battery storage. The CARE Community will provide a replicable template that affordable housing developers and energy companies can adopt throughout the United States. In this report, we present the design and modeling of the community and potential approaches for integrating DERs. We analyze and discuss annual simulations under normal operating conditions and week-long simulations under electric power grid outage conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sustainability Engineering: Challenges, Technologies, and Applications

Sustainability Engineering: Challenges, Technologies, and Applications focuses on emerging topics within sustainability science and engineering, including the circular economy, advanced recycling technologies, decarbonization, renewable energy, and waste valorization. Readers will learn the trends driving today's sustainability research and innovation as well as the latest in sustainable process technologies. This book: addresses emerging sustainability development challenges, progress, and disruptive technologies; discusses biological sustainability, recycling technologies, and sustainable process design and manufacture; and features a comprehensive view from renowned experts who are leaders in their respective research areas. This work is aimed at an interdisciplinary audience of engineers and scientists working on solutions to advance the development and application of sustainable technologies, including - but not limited to - chemical and environmental engineers.

advanced recycling technologies↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inducing the adoption of emerging technologies for sustainable intensification of food and renewable energy production: insights from applied economics

Emerging advances in sustainable intensification technologies have the potential to transform land use and crop management approaches in ways that can increase resource productivity and reduce adverse environmental impacts of agricultural production. This paper describes emerging technologies that can sustainably intensify food and renewable energy production. We apply the findings from studies examining the adoption of technologies with similar stylized features to provide insights about the incentives and barriers for the adoption of these emerging technologies. We also present a landscape-based systems approach, based on welfare economics, to go beyond relying on a positive approach to explain observed adoption decisions to examining normative questions about the optimal mix, level, and location of adoption of these technologies to achieve desired societal outcomes. Here, we conclude with a discussion of the insights from applied economics for the design of policy incentives to achieve these outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

The global energy system is undergoing significant changes, including a shift in energy generating technologies to more renewable energy sources. However, the dependence of renewable energy sources on local environmental conditions could also increase disruptions in service through exposures to compound, extreme weather events. By fusing three diverse datasets (operations and maintenance tickets, weather data, and production data), this analysis presents a novel methodology to identify and evaluate performance impacts arising from extreme weather events across diverse geographical regions. Text analysis of maintenance tickets identified snow, hurricanes, and storms as the leading extreme weather events affecting photovoltaic plants in the United States. Statistical techniques and machine learning were then implemented to identify the magnitude and variability of these extreme weather impacts on site performance. Impacts varied between event and non-event days, with snow events causing the greatest reductions in performance (54.5%), followed by hurricanes (12.6%) and storms (1.1%). Machine learning analysis identified key features in determining if a day is categorized as low performing, such as low irradiance, geographic location, weather features, and site size. The analysis improves our understanding of compound, extreme weather event impacts on photovoltaic systems, which can inform planning activities, especially as the industry continues to expand into new geographic and climatic regions around the world.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Cycle Integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Phase I of this project confirmed the technical feasibility of a Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” system, calculated the key performance parameters like power efficiency and costs, and proved its commercial value with full-year simulations for several US electricity markets with high degree of variable renewable generation and volatile hourly electricity prices. The core element of this project is the Electro Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) technology from Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy GmbH, using thermally stable and inexpensive volcanic rocks as storage material and air as heat transfer medium. This technology is backed by more than 10 years of experience and a 440MMBTU (130MWh-th) pilot plant in Hamburg, Germany, which is in operation since 2019. The integration of this thermal storage in an existing combined cycle power plant (CCPP) is typical power plant technology without any major technology risks. It allows the storage of inexpensive renewable energy during times of surplus renewable generation and the discharge of this energy in times of high energy demand when the fossil plant is in operation. This supplements the fossil power generation with CO2-emission-free energy. The secondary effect of the CiTES system is that a small part of the stored thermal energy is used to keep the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and steam turbine (ST) of the combined cycle power plant in hot and ready-to-start condition. This enables the plant to start rapidly when fossil generation is required to satisfy demand as soon variable generation drops off in the evenings or during cloud cover and calm wind periods. Without pre-warming of the HRSG and ST, the CCPP would need several hours for a cold or warm start, burn a lot of gas and release high NOx emissions during start and wouldn’t be able to use the short times of high energy prices in an efficient or economical manner. The economic parameters of CiTES were determined by a full year “8760” simulation using a data set calculation for each of the hours of the year, and historical electricity and gas prices. For consistency, the simulations were focused on the pre-COVID year 2019. The financially most attractive markets were in the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, which allowed substantial value generation with arbitrage (charge with cheap energy during renewable surplus times and discharge when energy is needed and expensive). The improvement of flexibility with the CiTES system by pre-heating and warm-keeping of the CCPP allowed for additional power generation during short time periods when demand is high but renewable generation is down; when the hourly energy prices are highest in these markets. The simulations are based on 2019 data, when ERCOT had 27GW of installed photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation. They showed that the created revenue with the prototypically sized CiTES system of 1,000MMBTU (300MWh-th) falls a little bit short of what is expected from a commercially viable investment. The system has optimization opportunities for cost reduction and increased effectiveness which will be realized during a potential Phase II Pre-FEED study following this project. Furthermore, it is safe to assume that a lot of renewable generation capacity will be added all over the US in the coming years. As an example, ERCOT is predicting to more than double its renewable generation from 27GW in 2019 to a forecasted 63GW in 2023. This will increase the amount of renewable overproduction exponentially. This rapid increase of local overproduction and the need to curtail renewable generation is well documented by the California ISO (www.CAISO.com / managing oversupply). However, the simulations also revealed a weakness in the structure of the electricity markets in the US. More specifically, when electricity prices are very low and approaching negative levels, the owners of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) will curtail a part of their facility to stabilize the price by reducing supply. This results in a situation in which storage facilities, which are integrated in existing fossil assets and don’t have the behind-the-meter benefit of a VRE, won’t be able to purchase low cost – otherwise curtailed – renewable energy off the grid. A special tariff, which motivates VRE owners to sell otherwise curtailed renewable energy to storage facilities (Hydrogen, thermal, pumped hydro, etc.) can solve this issue. The implementation of such a regulating tariff by Independent System Operators, thus avoiding renewable curtailment, is a pre condition for successful commercialization for renewable energy storage technologies. With this advancement of design and technology and improvements in the market environment, it can be expected that the Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage proves itself as an important innovation to keep highly efficient, natural gas-based power generation economically successful and relevant for the power industry in the United States of America.

Wolf, Thorsten↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updated Report for the Natural Gas Community of the Future

Nicor Gas is developing the Natural Gas Community of the Future (later renamed the Nicor Gas Smart Neighborhood (TM), a high-performance residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes connected to electricity and natural gas services in suburban South Chicago , built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been assisting Nicor Gas to explore a synergy among energy efficiency, renewable technologies, affordability, and resilience enabled by natural gas in this community. Our goal is to demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls, in combination with existing natural gas and electricity infrastructure, can help historically underserved communities in a cold climate reduce energy burden and improve resilience to extreme weather conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear Energy in Long-Term System Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term energy system models–including electric sector capacity expansion models–are widely used tools for informing planning, technology assessment, and policy analysis. Recent decarbonization goals and rapid technological change have increased the need to appropriately represent economic characteristics and technical details of energy system resources, including variable renewable energy, energy storage technologies, carbon-capture-equipped capacity, and nuclear energy. Nuclear power represents about 20% of electricity generation and 50% of carbon-free electricity in the United States as of 2021. However, there are many perspectives on the role of existing and new nuclear in the future U.S. energy system, which is reflected in the broad range of potential contributions reported in the literature. This project aims to understand how issues central to nuclear energy are represented in long-term energy models. Building on earlier collaborations that focused on variable renewable energy and energy storage, this project convenes four modeling teams that use national-scale long-term energy system models from the Electric Power Research Institute, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to share methods and data, update models, run coordinated scenarios, and identify research needs. Improving tools can provide more insightful analyses and ensure that methods are more transparent.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis and Technology Needs for Getting to 100% Renewable Energy: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) Example

The presentation outlines the energy sector impacts of Hurricane's Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico, followed by the analysis and technology needs for getting to 100% renewable energy with an overview of the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (i.e., PR 100 Study).

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operational and scaling-up barriers of SOEC and mitigation strategies to boost H 2 production- a comprehensive review

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) proffer a flexible and environmentally friendly solution to reduce CO 2 emissions and/or produce H 2 fuel for various applications. Here, the integration of this technology with renewable energy systems makes them even more promising in realizing a near-perpetual green energy infrastructure in the near future. SOEC technology has achieved stupendous improvement in recent years, and some of the limiting factors to the commercialization of this technology have been explored. It is, therefore, necessary to have a succinct outlook of the different factors that contribute to the recent developments in SOEC technology. The current work presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art SOEC component materials and their degradation mechanisms, SOEC modeling essentials and efficiencies, and the scalability of SOECs. Although SOEC is considered a highly promising technology and sufficient multifaceted research has been done, yet not been widely commercialized. Despite the improvement to mitigate degradation of the SOEC materials, a large share of the degradation concerns sprang from charge transfer reaction at the triple-phase boundaries of the H 2 -electrode. Part of which can be improved by microkinetic modeling of these materials supported by their characterization to give insight into their development. Some other directions for the future in advancing this technology toward the commercialization stage are thoroughly addressed.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗