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From its high mountains to its low plains, Nepal faces growing risks from natural hazards. Preparing for these risks requires accurate, locally relevant risk assessments and effective communications.
The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is the world’s first flash x-ray facility able to take multiple high-resolution radiographs of the interior features of fast-moving dense objects during a single experiment. DARHT’s radiography and complimentary diagnostics makes it an important diagnostic tool in support of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s stewardship of the US nuclear deterrent. The project to construct DARHT ran from 1988 through 2003. Initial Operating Capability along a single axis began in 1999. A technical issue delayed Critical Decision 4 for the full dual-axis capability until 2008. DARHT was characterized by several directed changes resulting from an environmental impact study, changes to the global security context resulting from the end of underground nuclear testing, and rapid evolution of applicable technology. Conventional building and lab-space construction were part of the project, but the project was dominated by Special Facility Equipment that, together with the mission to support the nuclear weapons program, required the project to be completed by national laboratories. Although the project pre-dated implementation of DOE Order 413.3, several important lessons for national laboratory projects remain applicable today and will be discussed here, including projects appropriate for the national laboratory environment, scope stability, risk acceptance and mitigation, communication, and collaboration. Finally, considerations for DOE contractor project managers are offered based upon the DARHT experience.
This report is a summary of a 3-year LDRD project that developed novel methods to detect faults in the electric power grid dramatically faster than today’s protection systems. Accurately detecting and quickly removing electrical faults is imperative for power system resilience and national security to minimize impacts to defense critical infrastructure. The new protection schemes will improve grid stability during disturbances and allow additional integration of renewable energy technologies with low inertia and low fault currents. Signal-based fast tripping schemes were developed that use the physics of the grid and do not rely on communication to reduce cyber risks for safely removing faults.
A document containing a forecast of satellite traffic and revelant technology trends to the year 2000 was prepared which includes those space station capabilities and characteristics that should be provided to make the station useful to commercial satellite owners. The document was circulated to key representative organizations within the commercial telecommunications satellite and related communities of interest, including spacecraft manufacturers, commercial satellite owners, communications carriers, networks and risk insurers. The prospectus document is presented as well as the transmittal letter and the mailing list of the people and companies that were asked to review it. Key commercial telecommunications comments are summarized the actual response letters from the industry are included.
This is Volume 1 (Analytical Chapters) of the final report of the NASA/NSF Panel Satellite Communications Systems and Technology. The panel surveyed advanced technology being developed for commercial use in the satellite communications field in Europe, Japan, and Russia. All aspects of satellite communications were considered, including fixed, broadcast, mobile, personal communications, navigation, low earth orbit, and small satellites. The focus was on experimental and advanced technology being developed in R&D and demonstration programs rather than on today's production capabilities. Focus was on commercial satellite technology, and does not review defense-related or other confidential satellite communications capabilities. The NASA/NSF panel concluded that the United States has lost its leading position in many critical satellite communications technologies. Although U.S. industry retains a leading position in today's marketplace for satellite communications systems and services, this position is largely founded on technologies and capabilities developed in the 1960's and 1970's. Because the United States is losing ground with respect to a wide range of technologies and systems that will be key to future communications markets, the market share of the U.S. satellite communications industry is at risk.
This is Volume I (Analytical Chapters) of the final report of the NASA/NSF Panel Satellite Communications Systems and Technology. The panel surveyed advanced technology being developed for commercial use in the satellite communications field in Europe, Japan, and Russia. All aspects of satellite communications were considered, including fixed, broadcast, mobile, personal communications, navigation, low earth orbit, and small satellites. The focus of the study was on experimental and advanced technology being developed in R&D and demonstration programs rather than on today's production capabilities. The report focuses on commercial satellite technology, and does not review defense-related or other confidential satellite communications capabilities. The NASA/NSF panel concluded that the United States has lost its leading position in many critical satellite communications technologies. Although U.S. industry retains a leading position in today's marketplace for satellite communications systems and services, this position is largely founded on technologies and capabilities developed in the 1960s and 1970s. Because the United States is losing ground with respect to a wide range of technologies and systems that will be key to future communications markets, the market share of the U.S. satellite communications industry is at risk.
NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.
Integrate the mission operations assurance function into the flight team providing: (1) value added support in identifying, mitigating, and communicating the project's risks and, (2) being an essential member of the team during the test activities, training exercises and critical flight operations.
NASA’s Europa Clipper mission will investigate the Jovian icy moon Europa with a sophisticated payload consisting of a suite of nine instruments. Clipper’s observations will help provide answers to a broad range of scientific objectives related to Europa’s habitability. As the project proceeds through Phase C, we are building confidence in the system’s ability to achieve these science goals by implementing a rigorous payload verification and validation (V&V) program. This paper details the planned structure and implementation of the Europa Clipper payload V&V program as it exists leading up to the project critical design review (CDR), before the bulk of instrument- or payload- level V&V activities have begun. We first explain the context for payload V&V on Europa Clipper, including its interfaces with other parts of the project system. We then describe the taxonomy of V&V concepts and their interrelationships, followed by a discussion on how this framework allows us to codify interfaces, processes, and ideas that are key to a successful V&V program. We focus on key aspects of the planning phases of V&V, especially establishing a complete set of verification items and accurately mapping them into appropriate verification activities. The second half of the paper describes the logistics of implementing this framework onto our actual payload system, including the processes and tools we use to manage and communicate agreements, changes, and risks across the project. We conclude with a reflection on the unique drivers and challenges of the V&V program concept development so far and the work that is planned for phase D implementation.
A primary challenge for the safe integration of small UAS operations into the National Airspace System (NAS) is traffic deconfliction, both from manned and unmanned aircraft. The UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project being conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) considers a layered approach to separation provision, ranging from segregation of operations through airspace volumes (geofences) to autonomous sense and avoid (SAA) technologies for higher risk, densely occupied airspace. Cooperative SAA systems, such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and/or vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems provide significant additional risk mitigation but they fail to adequately mitigate collision risks for non-cooperative (non-transponder equipped) airborne aircraft. The RAAVIN (Radar on Autonomous Aircraft to Verify ICAROUS Navigation) flight test being conducted by NASA and the Mid-Atlantic Aviation Partnership (MAAP) was designed to investigate the applicability and performance of a prototype, commercially available sUAS radar to detect and track non-cooperative airborne traffic, both manned and unmanned. The radar selected for this research was a Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar with 120 degree azimuth and 80 degree elevation field of view operating at 24.55GHz center frequency with a 200 MHz bandwidth. The radar transmits 2 watts of power thru a Metamaterial Electronically Scanning Array antenna in horizontal polarization. When the radar is transmitting, personnel must be at least 1 meter away from the active array to limit nonionizing radiation exposure. The radar physical dimensions are 18.7cm by 12.1cm by 4.1cm and it weighs less than 820 grams making it well suited for installation on small UASs. The onboard, SAA capability, known as ICAROUS, (Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems), developed by NASA to support sUAS operations, will provide autonomous guidance using the traffic radar tracks from the onboard radar. The RAAVIN set of studies will be conducted in three phases. The first phase included outdoor, ground-based radar evaluations performed at the Virginia Tech’s Kentland Farm testing range in Blacksburg, VA. The test was designed to measure how well the radar could detect and track a small UAS flying in the radar’s field of view. The radar was used to monitor 5 test flights consisting of outbound, inbound and crossing routes at different ranges and altitudes. The UAS flown during the ground test was the Inspire 2, a quad copter weighing less than 4250 grams (10 pounds) at maximum payload. The radar was set up to scan and track targets over its full azimuthal field of view from 0 to 40 degrees in elevation. The radar was configured to eliminate tracks generated from any targets located beyond 2000 meters from the radar and moving at velocities under 1.45 meters per second. For subsequent phases of the study the radar will be integrated with a sUAS platform to evaluate its performance in flight for SAA applications ranging from sUAS to manned GA aircraft detections and tracking. Preliminary data analysis from the first outdoor ground tests showed the radar performed well at tracking the vehicle as it flew outbound and repeatedly maintained a track out to 1000 meters (maximum 1387 meters) until the vehicle slowed to a stop to reverse direction to fly inbound. As the Inspire flew inbound tracks from beyond 800 meters, a reacquisition time delay was consistently observed between when the Inspire exceeds a speed of 1.45 meters per second and when the radar indicated an inbound target was present and maintained its track. The time delay varied between 6 seconds to over 37 seconds for the inbound flights examined, and typically resulted in about a 200 meter closure distance before the Inspire track was maintained. The radar performed well at both acquiring and tracking the vehicle as it flew crossing routes out past 400 meters across the azimuthal field of view. The radar and ICAROUS software will be integrated and flown on a BFD-1400-SE8-E UAS during the next phase of the RAAVIN project. The main goal at the conclusion of this effort is to determine if this radar technology can reliably support minimum requirements for SAA applications of sUAS. In particular, the study will measure the range of vehicle detections, lateral and vertical angular errors, false and missed/late detections, and estimated distance at closest point of approach after an avoidance maneuver is executed. This last metric is directly impacted by sensor performance and indicates its suitability for the task.
The Spacelab design and mission capabilities appear to provide a practical vehicle for meeting communication experiment needs. Results of recent discussions and numerous contractual activities have conclusively corroborated the potential useful role that a manned laboratory in space can afford to the communications community. Some examples of the experiments that appear presently as strong candidates for early flights on the Spacelab missions of the 1980s are discussed. Particular attention is given to radio frequency interference, bandwidth compressive modulation, laser experimentation, and use of large deployable communications antenna. It can be expected that the Spacelab will reduce the time, risk, and cost for conducting some communications experiments and developing the related space technology.
The NASA Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) provides high risk technologies having the potential to dramatically enhance the capabilities of the satellite communications industry. This experimental satellite, which will be launched by NASA in 1993, will furnish the technology necessary for providing a range of services. Utilizing the ACTS very-high-gain-hopping spot-beam antennas with on-board routing and processing, Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) digital networks which provide on-demand, full-mesh-convectivity 1.544-MBPS services with only a single hop can be established. The high-gain spot-beam antenna at Ka-band permits wide area, flexible networks providing high data rate services between modest-size earth terminals.
The Maritime Nuclear Application Group (MNAG) is a working group convened by the National Reactor Innovation Center at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the American Bureau of Shipping, and Morgan, Lewis, and Bockius LLP. This report documents an MNAG examination of considerations relevant to implementing nuclear technology in commercial maritime applications. In general, two types of use case are examined: maritime nuclear power plants and nuclear reactors used on board shipping vessels for propulsion and other ship needs. The report finds that there may be economic benefits related to maritime nuclear technologies, including the flexible deployment of maritime nuclear reactors, which would allow them to complement land-based nuclear projects, and operational differences for nuclear cargo ships that may lead to an overall increase in revenue. High-level analyses in this report show that, based on general small modular reactor and microreactor cost estimates developed by INL, maritime nuclear reactors may be economically competitive for electricity production in remote regions and for use in the propulsion of large cargo ships. Besides economic viability, public acceptance will be key to implementing maritime nuclear technologies. The report discusses the public’s current perception of nuclear technologies. Engaging with the public will be important to improving this perception. The report discusses some key benefits and risks associated with maritime nuclear technologies. Benefits include the creation of jobs, the production of reliable energy, and the potential to improve air quality. Risks that concern the public are the potential for radioactive releases during operation and decommissioning, as well as those related to waste management. Communicating the benefits and the risks of maritime nuclear technologies will be essential to improving public perception.
The integrated radio and optical communications (iROC) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating the feasibility of a hybrid RF and optical communication subsystem for future deep space missions. The hybrid communications subsystem enables the advancement of optical communications while simultaneously mitigating the risk of infusion by combining an experimental optical transmitter and telescope with a reliable Ka-band RF transmitter and antenna. The iROC communications subsystem seeks to maximize the total data return over the course of a potential 2-year mission in Mars orbit beginning in 2021. Although optical communication by itself offers potential for greater data return over RF, the reliable Ka-band link is also being designed for high data return capability in this hybrid system. A daily analysis of the RF link budget over the 2-year span is performed to optimize and provide detailed estimates of the RF data return. In particular, the bandwidth dependence of these data return estimates is analyzed for candidate waveforms. In this effort, a data return modeling tool was created to analyze candidate RF modulation and coding schemes with respect to their spectral efficiency, amplifier output power back-off, required digital to analog conversion (DAC) sampling rates, and support by ground receivers. A set of RF waveforms is recommended for use on the iROC platform.
Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.
In preparation for future exploration missions to distant destinations (e.g., Moon, Near Earth Objects (NEO), and Mars), the NASA Human Research Program s (HRP) Behavioral Health and Performance Element (BHP) conducts and supports research to address four human health risks: Risk of Behavioral Conditions; Risk of Psychiatric Conditions; Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team; and Risk of Performance Errors due to Sleep Loss, Fatigue, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload (HRP Science Management Plan, 2008). BHP Research, in collaboration with internal and external research investigators, as well as subject matter experts within NASA operations including flight surgeons, astronauts, and mission planners and others within the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD), identifies knowledge and technology gaps within each Risk. BHP Research subsequently manages and conducts research tasks to address and close the gaps, either through risk assessment and quantification, or the development of countermeasures and monitoring technologies. The resulting deliverables, in many instances, also support current Medical Operations and/or Mission Operations for the International Space Station (ISS).
The 2014 Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) met for a site visit in Houston, TX on December 17 - 18, 2014. The SRP reviewed the updated research plan for the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Fatigue Resulting from Sleep Loss, Circadian Desynchronization, Extended Wakefulness, and Work Overload (Sleep Risk) and also received a status update on the Risk of Adverse Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders (BMed Risk) and the Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (Team Risk).
The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.