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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

risk reduction↗
NASA NTRS1988

Space Shuttle Orbiter windshield bird impact analysis

The NASA Space Shuttle Orbiter's windshield employs three glass panes separated by air gaps. The brittleness of the glass offers much less birdstrike energy-absorption capability than the laminated polycarbonate windshields of more conventional aircraft; attention must accordingly be given to the risk of catastrophic bird impact, and to methods of strike prevention that address bird populations around landing sites rather than the modification of the window's design. Bird populations' direct reduction, as well as careful scheduling of Orbiter landing times, are suggested as viable alternatives. The question of birdstrike-resistant glass windshield design for hypersonic aerospacecraft is discussed.

Edelstein, Karen S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

Quintana, Rolando↗
NASA NTRS2006

Planned Environmental Microbiology Aspects of Future Lunar and Mars Missions

With the establishment of the Constellation Program, NASA has initiated efforts designed similar to the Apollo Program to return to the moon and subsequently travel to Mars. Early lunar sorties will take 4 crewmembers to the moon for 4 to 7 days. Later missions will increase in duration up to 6 months as a lunar habitat is constructed. These missions and vehicle designs are the forerunners of further missions destined for human exploration of Mars. Throughout the planning and design process, lessons learned from the International Space Station (ISS) and past programs will be implemented toward future exploration goals. The standards and requirements for these missions will vary depending on life support systems, mission duration, crew activities, and payloads. From a microbiological perspective, preventative measures will remain the primary techniques to mitigate microbial risk. Thus, most of the effort will focus on stringent preflight monitoring requirements and engineering controls designed into the vehicle, such as HEPA air filters. Due to volume constraints in the CEV, in-flight monitoring will be limited for short-duration missions to the measurement of biocide concentration for water potability. Once long-duration habitation begins on the lunar surface, a more extensive environmental monitoring plan will be initiated. However, limited in-flight volume constraints and the inability to return samples to Earth will increase the need for crew capabilities in determining the nature of contamination problems and method of remediation. In addition, limited shelf life of current monitoring hardware consumables and limited capabilities to dispose of biohazardous trash will drive flight hardware toward non-culture based methodologies, such as hardware that rapidly distinguishes biotic versus abiotic surface contamination. As missions progress to Mars, environmental systems will depend heavily on regeneration of air and water and biological waste remediation and regeneration systems, increasing the need for environmental monitoring. Almost complete crew autonomy will be needed for assessment and remediation of contamination problems. Cabin capacity will be limited; thus, current methods of microbial monitoring will be inadequate. Future methodology must limit consumables, and these consumables must have a shelf life of over three years. In summary, missions to the moon and Mars will require a practical design that prudently uses available resources to mitigate microbial risk to the crew.

Ott, C. Mark↗
NASA NTRS2010

Evaluating Failures and near Misses in Human Spaceflight History for Lessons for Future Human Spaceflight

Studies done in the past have drawn on lessons learned with regard to human loss-of-life events. However, an examination of near-fatal accidents can be equally useful, not only in detecting causes, both proximate and systemic, but also for determining what factors averted disaster, what design decisions and/or operator actions prevented catastrophe. Binary pass/fail launch history is often used for risk, but this also has limitations. A program with a number of near misses can look more reliable than a consistently healthy program with a single out-of-family failure. Augmenting reliability evaluations with this near miss data can provide insight and expand on the limitations of a strictly pass/fail evaluation. This paper intends to show how near-miss lessons learned can provide crucial data for any new human spaceflight programs that are interested in sending man into space

Barr, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health Newsletter

The June 2010 LSAH newsletter introduced the change from the Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health research study to the new Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health program (An Overview of the New Occupational Surveillance Program for the Astronaut Corps). Instead of performing research-focused retrospective analyses of astronaut medical data compared to a JSC civil servant control population, the new program is focused on prevention of disease and prospective identification and mitigation of health risks in each astronaut due to individual exposure history and the unique occupational exposures experienced by the astronaut corps. The new LSAH program has 5 primary goals: (1) Provide a comprehensive medical exam for each LSAH participant; (2) Conduct occupational surveillance; (3) Improve communication, data accessibility, integrity and storage; (4) Support operational and healthcare analyses; and (5) Support NASA research objectives. This article will focus primarily on the first goal, the comprehensive medical exam. Future newsletters will outline in detail the plans and processes for addressing the remaining program goals.

Lee, Lesley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben Phillips↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evolution of Spaceflight Renal Stone Risks and Update to the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Renal Stone Evidence Report and Integrated Concept of Operations

BACKGROUND: The NASA HRP Evidence Report on the Risk of Renal Stone Formation is being updated based on new information obtained from 9 years of data from NASA’s astronaut renal stone surveillance program. In addition, the Concept of Operations for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) was created to supplement the Evidence Report, and the NASA clinical practice guideline(CPG)for renal stone surveillance was updated. OVERVIEW: A literature review was performed to evaluate the state of literature regarding renal stone prevention, mitigation, and management both in terrestrial and spaceflight environments. Current renal stone treatment guidelines for the ISS, which were created by the Inflight Clinical Medicine Working Group and approved by the Multilateral Medical Operations Panel (MMOP)were reviewed, as well as recent ultrasound technology demonstrations onboard the ISS. This information was used in conjunction with emerging evidence from the surveillance program to update the Evidence Report and in-flight Concept of Operations. DISCUSSION: There are known and emerging renal stone prevention strategies including astronaut selection, the use of medications and resistive exercise, early diagnosis with regular urine studies and ultrasound imaging. In-flight treatment options include pharmaceuticals, use of lithotripsy and propulsive ultrasound, placement of percutaneous drains and other modalities. This information is useful to gauge future risks and update our strategies for prevention and management of renal stones in astronauts to reduce the risk of in-flight renal stone colic that could cause morbidity and mission impact.

E Stratton↗
NASA NTRS2011

Antiresorptive Treatment for Spaceflight Induced Bone Atrophy - Preliminary Results

Detailed measurements from the Mir and ISS long duration missions have documented losses in bone mineral density (BMD) from critical skeletal sub-regions. The most important BMD losses are from the femoral hip, averaging about -1.6%/mo integral to -2.3%/mo trabecular. Importantly these studies have documented the wide range in individual BMD loss from -0.5 to -5%/mo. Associated elevated urinary Ca increases the risk of renal stone formation during flight, a serious impact to mission success. To date, countermeasures have not been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to determine if the combined effect of anti-resorptive drugs plus the standard in-flight exercise regimen will have a measurable effect on preventing space flight induced bone loss (mass and strength) and reducing renal stone risk. To date, 4 crewmembers have completed the flight portion of the protocol in which crewmembers take a 70-mg alendronate tablet once a week before and during flight, starting 17 days before launch. Compared to previous ISS crewmembers (n=14) not taking alendronate, DXA measurements of the spine, femur neck and total hip were significantly improved from -0.8 +/- 0.5%/mo to 1.0 +/- 1.1%/mo, -1.1 +/- 0.5%/mo to -0.2 +/- 0.3%/mo, -1.1 +/- 0.5%/mo to 0.04 +/- 0.3%/mo respectively. QCT-determined trabecular BMD of the femur neck, trochanter and total hip were significantly improved from -2.7 +/- 1.9%/mo to -0.2 +/- 0.8%/mo, -2.2 +/- 0.9%/mo to -0.3 +/- 1.9%/mo and -2.3 +/- 1.0%/mo to -0.2 +/- 1.8%/mo respectively. Significance was calculated from a one-tailed t test. Resorption markers were unchanged, in contrast to measurements from previous ISS crewmembers that showed typical increases of 50-100% above baseline. Urinary Ca showed no increase compared to baseline levels, also distinct from the elevated levels of 50% or greater in previous crews. While these results are encouraging, the current n (4) is small, and the large SDs indicate that, while the means are improved, there is still high variability in individual response. Three additional crewmembers have been recruited to participate in this experiment, with expected completion in late 2011.

LeBlanc, Adrian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Input from Wildfire Incident Experts to Identify Key Risks and Hazards in Wildfire Emergency Response

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) describes wildland fires as, “a force of nature that can be nearly as impossible to prevent, and as difficult to control, as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods.” Existing challenges in managing wildland fires often put first responders’ lives at risk. The emergence of drones and their capabilities to supplement human efforts could alleviate some, if not all, of those risks that first responders face during wildfire management efforts. However, the process of adding drones to wildfire response has come with its own challenges as well. NASA’s System-Wide Safety Project is working towards overcoming these challenges to enable routine transfer of risk from responders to aviation assets. The concept of operations and model-based systems engineering (MBSE) effort for this shift is underway. To inform and to validate the MBSE effort, we delivered a questionnaire to wildland firefighting experts on the hazards they currently face. This questionnaire has given us insight and a better understanding of the challenges related to the use of drones from a first responder’s point of view. We are using this information to better address responders’ concerns, develop a safety management system, and eliminate the roadblocks that prevent the use of drones in wildfire management.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Pathway to a Safe and Effective Medication Formulary for Exploration Spaceflight

PURPOSE: Exploration space missions pose several challenges to providing a comprehensive medication formulary designed to accommodate the size and space limitations of the spacecraft; while addressing the individual medications needs and preferences of the Crew; the negative outcome of a degrading inventory over time, the inability to resupply before expiration dates; and the need to properly forecast the best possible medication candidates to treat conditions that will occur in the future. METHODS: The Pharmacotherapeutics Discipline has partnered with the Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) Element to develop and propose a research pathway that is comprehensively focused on evidence-based models and theories, as well as on new diagnostic tools and treatments or preventive measures aimed at closure of the Med02 “Pharmacy” Gap; defined in the Human Research Program’s (HRP) risk-based research strategy. The Med02 Gap promotes the challenge to identify a strategy to ensure that medications used to treat medical conditions during exploration space missions are available, safe, and effective. It is abundantly clear that pharmaceutical intervention is an essential component of risk management planning for astronaut healthcare during exploration space. However, the quandary still remains of how to assemble a formulary that is comprehensive enough to prevent or treat anticipated medical events; and is also chemically stable, safe, and robust enough to have sufficient potency to last for the duration of an exploration space mission. In cases where that is not possible, addressing this Gap requires exploration of novel drug development techniques, dosage forms, and dosage delivery platforms that enhance chemical stability as well as therapeutic effectiveness. RESULTS: The proposed research pathway outlines the steps, processes, procedures, and a research portfolio aimed at identifying a capability that will provide a safe and effective pharmacy for any specific exploration Design Reference Mission (DRM). The proposed approach to building this research portfolio is to seek research projects that concentrate on four major focus areas; (1) Formulary selection, (2) Formulary potency and shelf life, (3) Formulary safety and toxicity, and (4) Novel technology and innovation such as portable real-time chemical analysis innovative drug therapies and dosage and delivery platforms. CONCLUSION: The research pathway has been completed and presented to the HRP. In spring 2017, it is scheduled to be reviewed by a panel of pharmaceutical and clinical experts that will evaluate the scientific merit and operational feasibility of the research pathway, as well as make suggestions for any warranted additions or improvements. Once finalized, the ExMC Element will proceed with the execution of this research pathway with the goal of gathering as much data, and learning as much as possible, to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical formulary for use during exploration missions.

Daniels, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Preventing Accidental Ignition of Upper-Stage Rocket Motors

A report presents a proposal to reduce the risk of accidental ignition of certain upper-stage rocket motors or other high energy hazardous systems. At present, mechanically in-line initiators are used for initiation of many rocket motors and/or other high-energy hazardous systems. Electrical shorts and/or mechanical barriers, which are the basic safety devices in such systems, are typically removed as part of final arming or pad preparations while personnel are present. At this time, static discharge, test equipment malfunction, or incorrect arming techniques can cause premature firing. The proposal calls for a modular out-of-line ignition system incorporating detonating-cord elements, identified as the donor and the acceptor, separated by an air gap. In the safe configuration, the gap would be sealed with two shields, which would prevent an accidental firing of the donor from igniting the system. The shields would be removed to enable normal firing, in which shrapnel generated by the donor would reliably ignite the acceptor to continue the ordnance train. The acceptor would then ignite a through bulkhead initiator (or other similar device), which would ignite the motor or high-energy system. One shield would be remotely operated and would be moved to the armed position when a launch was imminent or conversely returned to the safe position if the launch were postponed. In the event of failure of the remotely operated shield, the other shield could be inserted manually to safe the system.

Hickman, John↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Methodology for Determining Statistical Performance Compliance for Airborne Doppler Radar with Forward-Looking Turbulence Detection Capability

The objective of the research developed and presented in this document was to statistically assess turbulence hazard detection performance employing airborne pulse Doppler radar systems. The FAA certification methodology for forward looking airborne turbulence radars will require estimating the probabilities of missed and false hazard indications under operational conditions. Analytical approaches must be used due to the near impossibility of obtaining sufficient statistics experimentally. This report describes an end-to-end analytical technique for estimating these probabilities for Enhanced Turbulence (E-Turb) Radar systems under noise-limited conditions, for a variety of aircraft types, as defined in FAA TSO-C134. This technique provides for one means, but not the only means, by which an applicant can demonstrate compliance to the FAA directed ATDS Working Group performance requirements. Turbulence hazard algorithms were developed that derived predictive estimates of aircraft hazards from basic radar observables. These algorithms were designed to prevent false turbulence indications while accurately predicting areas of elevated turbulence risks to aircraft, passengers, and crew; and were successfully flight tested on a NASA B757-200 and a Delta Air Lines B737-800. Application of this defined methodology for calculating the probability of missed and false hazard indications taking into account the effect of the various algorithms used, is demonstrated for representative transport aircraft and radar performance characteristics.

Bowles, Roland L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

First Stage Solid Propellant Multi Debris Thermal Analysis

The crew launch vehicle considered for the Constellation (Cx) Program utilizes a first stage solid rocket motor. If an abort is initiated in first stage flight the Crew Module (CM) will separate and be pulled away from the launch vehicle via a Launch Abort System (LAS) in order to safely and quickly carry the crew away from the malfunction launch vehicle. Having aborted the mission, the launch vehicle will likely be destroyed via a Flight Termination System (FTS) in order to prevent it from errantly traversing back over land and posing a risk to the public. The resulting launch vehicle debris field, composed primarily of first stage solid propellant, poses a threat to the CM. The harsh radiative thermal environment induced by surrounding burning propellant debris may lead to CM parachute failure. A methodology, detailed herein, has been developed to address this concern and quantify the risk of first stage propellant debris leading to radiative thermal demise of the CM parachutes. Utilizing basic thermal radiation principles, a software program was developed to calculate parachute temperature as a function of time for a given abort trajectory and debris piece trajectory set. Two test cases, considered worst-case aborts with regard to launch vehicle debris environments, were analyzed using the simulation: an abort declared at Mach 1 and an abort declared at maximum dynamic pressure (Max Q). For both cases, the resulting temperature profiles indicated that thermal limits for the parachutes were not exceeded. However, short duration close encounters by single debris pieces did have a significant effect on parachute temperature, with magnitudes on the order of 10 s of degrees Fahrenheit. Therefore while these two test cases did not indicate exceedance of thermal limits, in order to quantify the risk of parachute failure due to radiative effects from the abort environment, a more thorough probability-based analysis using the methodology demonstrated herein must be performed.

Toleman, Benjamin M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

First Stage Solid Propellant Multiply Debris Thermal Analysis

Destruction of a solid rocket stage of a launch vehicle can create a thermal radiation hazard for an aborting crew module. This hazard was assessed for the Constellation Program (Cx) crew and launch vehicle concept. For this concept, if an abort was initiated in first stage flight, the Crew Module (CM) will separate and be pulled away from the malfunctioning launch vehicle via a Launch Abort System (LAS). Having aborted the mission, the launch vehicle will likely be destroyed via a Flight Termination System (FTS) in order to prevent it from errantly traversing back over land and posing a risk to the public. The resulting launch vehicle debris field, composed primarily of first stage solid propellant, poses a threat to the CM. The harsh radiative thermal environment, caused by surrounding burning propellant debris, may lead to CM parachute failure. A methodology, detailed herein, has been developed to address this concern and to quantify the risk of first stage propellant debris leading to the thermal demise of the CM parachutes. Utilizing basic thermal radiation principles, a software program was developed to calculate parachute temperature as a function of time for a given abort trajectory and debris piece trajectory set. Two test cases, considered worst case aborts with regard to launch vehicle debris environments, were analyzed using the simulation: an abort declared at Mach 1 and an abort declared at maximum dynamic pressure (Max Q). For both cases, the resulting temperature profiles indicated that thermal limits for the parachutes were not exceeded. However, short duration close encounters by single debris pieces did have a significant effect on parachute temperature. Therefore while these two test cases did not indicate exceedance of thermal limits, in order to quantify the risk of parachute failure due to radiative effects from the abort environment, a more thorough probability-based analysis using the methodology demonstrated herein must be performed.

Toleman, Benjamin M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗
NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗