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DOE OSTI2025

Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.

Olson, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2024

A robust approach to Gaussian process implementation

Abstract. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset has a large number of observations. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable GP algorithm, termed MuyGPs, which incorporates nearest-neighbor and leave-one-out cross-validation during training. This approach enables the evaluation of large spatial datasets with state-of-the-art accuracy and speed in certain spatial problems. Despite these advantages, conventional quadratic loss functions used in the MuyGPs optimization, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), are highly influenced by outliers. We explore the behavior of MuyGPs in cases involving outlying observations and, subsequently, develop a robust approach to handle and mitigate their impact. Specifically, we introduce a novel leave-one-out loss function based on the pseudo-Huber function (LOOPH) that effectively accounts for outliers in large spatial datasets within the MuyGPs framework. Our simulation study shows that the LOOPH loss method maintains accuracy despite outlying observations, establishing MuyGPs as a powerful tool for mitigating unusual observation impacts in the large data regime. In the analysis of US ozone data, MuyGPs provides accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its utility in managing data anomalies. Through these efforts, we advance the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts.

Mukangango, Juliette↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Readily Available & Robust High Heat Flux Gardon Gauges

Concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies deliver concentrated solar energy as a heat source to industrial processes, power generation cycles, and chemical cycles. CSP systems require accurate and reliable high flux measurements, and next generation CSP systems will require flux measurement up to 1000 W/cm2. Existing flux measurement devices do not comprehensively meet the flux rating, cycle life, cost, and lead-time needs of stakeholders, necessitating the development of an improved flux sensor. In this study, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) partnered with Hukseflux Thermal Sensors to develop a low-cost, short lead-time, and robust flux sensor rated to 250 W/cm2. Three prototype circular foil gauge designs were assessed for performance at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at SNL. Each gauge design measured flux up to 250 W/cm2 with <5% measurement error. Following baseline error quantification, gauges were exposed to flux above 500 W/cm2 to assess gauge failure mechanisms. Gauges physically survived >500 W/cm2 flux exposure, but measurement error was found to increase after foil coatings reached 400 °C. The results of this study suggest that coating optical properties change at excessive temperatures and that foil coating temperature, rather than heat flux level, dictates the acceptable gauge measurement range.

McLaughlin, Luke (ORCID:0000000303711310)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Collaborative Design of Robust Adaptation Pathways for Urban Flooding Resilience in Baltimore

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by changes in climate and rainfall, increased impervious area, aging infrastructure, and severe social inequity. Adaptations to urban flooding should strengthen community-scale resilience while navigating the uncertainties associated with future actions. However, the highly uncertain future climate and conflicting stakeholder objectives complicate the selection of effective and socially acceptable strategies. This study addresses these challenges through a community-informed Multi Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) process, coupled with Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP). Community stakeholders are engaged on a large scale through community partnerships, including priority identification sessions, focus groups, and metric identification workshops. The combination of community partnership, MORDM, and DAPP will create an original set of adaptation pathways which are aligned with community goals and values, and furthermore are adjustable under changing future constraints and conditions. This framework will enhance the city's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood conditions while accounting for diverse stakeholder interests and will provide guidance for addressing both the immediate and long-term challenges of urban flooding in Baltimore.

BSEC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation: Preprint

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

distribution system operator↗

DOE OSTI2025

A High-Precision, Fast, Robust, and Cost-Effective Muon Detector Concept for the FCC-ee

We propose a high-precision, fast, robust and cost-effective muon detector concept for an FCC-ee experiment. This design combines precision drift tubes with fast plastic scintillator strips to enable both spatial and timing measurements. The drift tubes deliver two-dimensional position measurements perpendicular to the tubes with a resolution around 100~$\mu$m. Meanwhile, the scintillator strips, read out with the wavelength-shifting fibers and silicon photomultipliers, provide fast timing information with a precision of 200~ps or better and measure the third coordinate along the tubes with a resolution of about 1~mm.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization with Deep Kernel and Partition

Multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) is a powerful approach that utilizes lowfidelity, cost-effective sources to expedite the exploration and exploitation of a high-fidelity objective function. Existing MFBO methods with theoretical foundations either lack justification for performance improvements over single-fidelity optimization or rely on strong assumptions about the relationships between fidelity sources to construct surrogate models and direct queries to low-fidelity sources. To mitigate the dependency on cross-fidelity assumptions while maintaining the advantages of low-fidelity queries, we introduce a random sampling and partition-based MFBO framework with deep kernel learning. This framework is robust to cross-fidelity model misspecification and explicitly illustrates the benefits of low-fidelity queries. Our results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm effectively manages complex cross-fidelity relationships and efficiently optimizes the target fidelity function.

Zhang, Fengxue [University of Chicago, Illinois, U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Robust Reference Electrode in Aggressive Chemical and Radiation Environments in the Hanford Waste Tanks

The Hanford site stores more than 200 million liters of radioactive and chemically hazardous wastes from the production of weapons materials. The wastes are stored in 177 underground carbon-steel storage tanks, separated between 149 single shell tanks (SSTs) and 28 double shell tanks (DSTs). The DSTs provide critical retrieval and interim storage before the waste is vitrified in the Waste Treatment and Isolation Plant (WTP). The tanks will need to remain in-service far beyond the initial 40-year design life, and effective corrosion control practices must remain in force to extend the tanks’ lifespans. This effort includes direct measurements of corrosion rate (e.g., ultrasonic measurements and corrosion coupons) and electrochemical processes (e.g., linear polarization measurements and open circuit potential measurements). The Hanford site began monitoring the corrosion potential in select DSTs in 2008. Of the 45 reference electrodes that have been installed, 29 have failed and 6 others provided unreliable results. DOE-EM is supporting a 3-year program to develop a chemical and radiation resistant reference electrode for application in the Hanford tanks. The first year of the program focused on understanding the failure mechanism for the reference electrodes and identification of candidate construction materials that would mitigate degradation of the electrodes in the waste environment. During the second year of the program, the objectives were to: 1) test candidate materials under simulated waste conditions, 2) design components that will extend the service life of the electrode, 3) fabricate materials for prototype reference electrodes, and 4) assemble prototype reference electrodes for accelerated testing. The reference electrode is constructed of four principal parts: 1) junction, 2) casing, 3) inner chamber backfill materials, and 4) the sensing wire. Principally, improvements of the junction, casing, and inner chamber backfill materials are being pursued. The junction material at the interface between the waste and the inner chamber of the reference electrode was identified as a critical component in the failure of the reference electrodes. Nine candidate replacement junction materials were tested under simulated waste conditions to evaluate permeation rate. These materials included a variety of polymeric and ceramic materials, some of which were 3-D printed. Thus far, porous polyvinylidene fluoride materials have performed satisfactorily and are being considered for prototype development. The commercial electrode casing materials in general have performed well. Additionally, 3-D printing of chemically and mechanically stable materials is being investigated as a means for further improvement in fabrication consistency. SRNL has also investigated altering the reference electrode design to extend the service life. The new design of the interior of the reference electrode casing creates a longer, more tortuous path between the junction material and the electrode sensing wire. A finite element model was used to optimize the design without adversely impacting the circuit resistance of the electrode during the measurements, thus preserving the measurement accuracy while enhancing the service life. The inner chamber back fill materials are also critical to the performance of the reference electrode. Materials that are resistant to intruding tank waste and provide a conductive path to the sensing wire were investigated. Gel and powder materials that are interspersed with a conductive chloride bearing material were tested for their influence on diffusion and electrode resistance. All the investigated materials and components will be assembled, with collaboration from commercial vendors, to fabricate the initial prototypes. Accelerated testing of the prototypes will be initiated in Year 2 of the program and will be completed in Year 3. A recommendation on the materials of construction and the design of the new robust reference electrode will be presented to the Hanford tank farm facility.

Sykes, Kiana [Savannah River National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2026

SPT-3G D1: Foreground-Robust Lensing Templates for Primordial Gravitational Wave Searches

Gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) generates B-mode polarization that acts as a source of contamination to searches for B modes generated by primordial gravitational waves (PGWs). The strongest constraint on PGW B modes is already significantly limited by lensing B modes, as shown in the most recent BICEP result. In this work, we present CMB lensing B-mode templates constructed using SPT-3G and Planck data, which characterize the lensing B modes and can be used to improve PGW B-mode searches. We use SPT-3G data from the 2019 and 2020 observing seasons for the E modes and the CMB-reconstructed lensing potential, and a cosmic infrared background (CIB) map from Planck as an external lensing tracer. To test for extragalactic foreground biases in the lensing template, we consider CMB lensing reconstruction variants with different levels of foreground immunity: the standard and profile-hardened global minimum variance (GMV) quadratic estimators, and a polarization-only quadratic estimator. We validate the template construction using Gaussian simulations and Agora simulations with realistic non-Gaussian foregrounds. From simulations, we find that foreground-induced biases are strongly suppressed for the template constructed with the profile-hardened GMV + CIB tracer, with residual bias below 10% of the statistical uncertainty on the template power spectrum. Data difference tests on this template similarly show no evidence for significant foreground contamination. This foreground-immune lensing template achieves delensed residual BB power of $A_{\rm lens}^{\rm res} \simeq 0.48$ averaged over $20 \leq \ell \leq 200$, the highest delensing efficiency lensing template to date. These results demonstrate and validate a method to construct foreground-robust lensing templates which will be used in upcoming delensed PGW B-mode analyses of BICEP data.

Nakato, Y. [Stanford U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Molecular Additive Engineering for Process-Humidity Robustness and Reproducible Fabrication of Perovskite Solar Cells and Modules

The commercialization of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) faces significant challenges due to their sensitivity to environmental humidity, which compromises film crystallization and device stability. Here, we introduce diphenylvinylphosphine (DPVP) as a Lewis base additive that enhances the performance and reproducibility of PSCs fabricated under ambient-air conditions. DPVP suppresses moisture-induced defect formation and stabilizes crystallization within realistic process-humidity ranges (20–40% relative humidity) commonly encountered in laboratory and pilot-scale manufacturing environments. It improves film uniformity, reduces trap densities, and yields highly reproducible device performance, enabling champion PCEs of 24.2% in small-area devices and 20.5% in blade-coated 12 cm 2 mini-modules. Furthermore, DPVP-assisted modules exhibit enhanced stability, retaining over 85% of their initial efficiency after 900 h of maximum power point tracking (MPPT) at 65 °C. This study demonstrates a humidity-resilient and scalable additive strategy for ambient-air perovskite photovoltaic manufacturing.

defect passivation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanically and Thermally Robust Gel Electrolytes Built from A Charged Double Helical Polymer

Polymer electrolytes have received tremendous interest in the development of solid-state batteries, but often fall short in one or more key properties required for practical applications. Herein, a rigid gel polymer electrolyte prepared by immobilizing a liquid mixture of a lithium salt and poly(ethylene glycol) dimethyl ether with only 8 wt% poly(2,2′-disulfonyl-4,4′-benzidine terephthalamide) (PBDT) is reported. The high charge density and rigid double helical structure of PBDT lead to formation of a nanofibrillar structure that endows this electrolyte with stronger mechanical properties, wider temperature window, and higher battery rate capability compared to all other poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO)-based electrolytes. The ion transport mechanism in this rigid polymer electrolyte is systematically studied using multiple complementary techniques. Li/LiFePO 4 cells show excellent capacity retention over long-term cycling, with thermal cycling reversibility between ambient temperature and elevated temperatures, demonstrating compelling potential for solid-state batteries targeting fast charging at high temperatures and slower discharging at ambient temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanochemically Robust LiCoO 2 with Ultrahigh Capacity and Prolonged Cyclability

Pushing intercalation-type cathode materials to their theoretical capacity often suffers from fragile Li-deficient frameworks and severe lattice strain, leading to mechanical failure issues within the crystal structure and fast capacity fading. This is particularly pronounced in layered oxide cathodes because the intrinsic nature of their structures is susceptible to structural degradation with excessive Li extraction, which remains unsolved yet despite attempts involving elemental doping and surface coating strategies. Herein, a mechanochemical strengthening strategy is developed through a gradient disordering structure to address these challenges and push the LiCoO 2 (LCO) layered cathode approaching the capacity limit (256 mAh g -1 , up to 93% of Li utilization). This innovative approach also demonstrates exceptional cyclability and rate capability, as validated in practical Ah-level pouch full cells, surpassing the current performance benchmarks. Comprehensive characterizations with multiscale X-ray, electron diffraction, and imaging techniques unveil that the gradient disordering structure notably diminishes the anisotropic lattice strain and exhibits high fatigue resistance, even under extreme delithiation states and harsh operating voltages. Consequently, this designed LCO cathode impedes the growth and propagation of particle cracks, and mitigates irreversible phase transitions. In conclusion, this work sheds light on promising directions toward next-generation high-energy-density battery materials through structural chemistry design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rational Regulation of Layer‐by‐Layer Processed Active Layer via Trimer‐Induced Pre‐Swelling Strategy for Efficient and Robust Thick‐Film Organic Solar Cells

Thick-film (>300 nm) organic solar cells (OSCs) have garnered intensifying attention due to their compatibility with commercial roll-to-roll printing technology for the large-scale continuous fabrication process. However, due to the uncontrollable donor/acceptor (D/A) arrangement in thick-film condition, the restricted exciton splitting and severe carrier traps significantly impede the photovoltaic performance and operability. For this work, combined with layer-by-layer deposition technology, a twisted 3D star-shaped trimer (BTT-Out) is synthesized to develop a trimer-induced pre-swelling (TIP) strategy, where the BTT-Out is incorporated into the buried D18 donor layer to enable the fabrication of thick-film OSCs. The integrated approach characterizations reveal that the exceptional configuration and spontaneous self-organization behavior of BTT-Out trimer could pre-swell the D18 network to facilitate the acceptor's infiltration and accelerate the formation of D/A interfaces. This enhancement triggers the elevated polarons formation with amplified hole-transfer kinetics, which is essential for the augmented exciton splitting efficiency. Furthermore, the regulated swelling process can initiate the favorable self-assembly of L8-BO acceptors, which would ameliorate carrier transport channels and mitigate carrier traps. As a result, the TIP-modified thin-film OSC devices achieve the champion performance of 20.3% (thin-film) and 18.8% (thick-film) with upgraded stability, among one of the highest performances reported of thick-film OSCs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Revealing Robust Room Temperature Ferromagnetism in Gd‐Doped Few‐Layered MoS 2 Thin Films

2D MoS 2 holds great promise for spintronics, yet is limited by intrinsic diamagnetism. This study demonstrates inducing ferromagnetic behavior in MoS 2 films doped with 0.47% Gd, achieving an ultrahigh saturation magnetization of 454 emu/cm 3 in a few‐layered film over 11‐times higher than bulk films (40 nm). Raman spectroscopy, X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy, X‐ray magnetic circular dichroism, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal an interplay between Gd dopants and Mo, S vacancies (V 1Mo+2S ), leading to the formation of bound magnetic polarons (BMPs) that drive ferromagnetic ordering. H 2 S annealing and DFT calculations reveal that defect healing reduces the saturation magnetization by 83%. High sulfur migration barrier in few‐layered films helps preserve BMPs, thereby sustaining ferromagnetism, whereas lower migration barriers in bulk films lead to suppression. These findings highlight the synergy between Gd doping and defect engineering in achieving ultrahigh room‐temperature ferromagnetism, offering a scalable strategy for developing high‐performance 2D magnetic materials for spintronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Circumventing Radical Generation on Fe–V Atomic Pair Catalyst for Robust Oxygen Reduction and Zinc–Air Batteries

Iron–nitrogen–carbon (Fe–N–C) catalysts are considered the most active platinum-free alternative for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), yet the generated reactive oxygen species (ROS) from general mechanistic pathway rapidly impair the ORR activity and stability of Fe–N–C. Herein, we establish and report an ORR pathway-switching strategy to circumvent ROS generation and fundamentally improve the activity and stability of Fe–N–C via DFT guided catalyst design. The constructed Fe–V atomic pair catalyst (Fe 1 V 1 -NC) with N 2 Fe-N 2 -VN 2 configuration enables side-on adsorption of O 2 and subsequent direct-breaking of the O═O bond to form O*, thereby avoiding the formation of ROS radicals. Importantly, there is intersite electron interaction between FeN 4 and VN 4 , which further boosts the ORR activity. Consequently, Fe 1 V 1 -NC exhibits outstanding ORR activity with onset and half-wave (E 1/2 ) potentials at 1.02 and 0.89 V versus RHE, respectively, in 0.1 M KOH. Record-high stability is achieved on Fe 1 V 1 -NC with a minimal decay in E 1/2 by 16 mV over 50000 cycles, surpassing Fe–N–C counterpart and most of the catalysts reported to date. The Fe 1 V 1 -NC-based zinc-air battery reported here demonstrates exceptional durability up to 400 h at 10 mA·cm −2 . This work identifies the intrinsic correlation between ORR pathway, activity, and stability, advancing development of stable catalytic systems.

Fe-N-C↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of the Ensemble Score Filter to the Type of Assimilated Observation Networks

Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods depends on the observation network characteristics. In this study, we present initial experiments with the surface quasi‐geostrophic model, in which we compare a recently developed ensemble filter using score‐based diffusion models with the standard Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Our results show that the analysis solutions respond differently to the number, spatial distribution, and nonlinear fraction of assimilated observations. We also find notable changes in the multiscale characteristics of the analysis errors. Given that standard DA techniques will eventually be replaced by more advanced methods, we hope this study sets the ground for future efforts to reassess the value of Earth observing systems in the context of newly emerging algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-task Parallelism for Robust Pre-training of Graph Foundation Models on Multi-source, Multi-fidelity Atomistic Modeling Data

Graph foundation models using graph neural networks promise sustainable, efficient atomistic modeling. To tackle challenges of processing multi-source, multi-fidelity data during pre-training, recent studies employ multi-task learning, in which shared message passing layers initially process input atomistic structures regardless of source, then route them to multiple decoding heads that predict data-specific outputs. This approach stabilizes pre-training and enhances a model’s transferability to unexplored chemical regions. Preliminary results on approximately four million structures are encouraging, yet questions remain about generalizability to larger, more diverse datasets and scalability on supercomputers. We propose a multi-task parallelism method that distributes each head across computing resources with GPU acceleration. Implemented in the open-source HydraGNN architecture, our method was trained on over 24 million structures from five datasets and tested on the Perlmutter, Aurora, and Frontier supercomputers, demonstrating efficient scaling on all three highly heterogeneous super-computing architectures.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000249↗