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State Government Revenue Vulnerability Index and Local Government Revenue Vulnerability Index

The State Government Revenue Vulnerability Index (SGRVI) and Local Government Revenue Vulnerability Index (LGRVI) measure the vulnerability of government revenues by estimating monthly changes relative to a January 2020 baseline. Revenues included in both indices include: taxes on products and sales, transportation and housing revenues, individual income taxes, severance taxes and royalties, and property taxes. Local government revenues also include a local revenue from state revenue sharing component. In addition, the main index for the LGRVI for county-level governments includes revenue estimates for sub-county government units, including municipalities, school districts, and special districts. This revenue data is aggregated to produce the indices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Operational and Mission Highlights: A Monthly Summary of Top Achievements October 2021

Working with the Design Agency (Q-6), Production Agency Quality (PAQ) Division, and the NNSA Los Alamos Field Office, Detonator Production recently sold Lot 3354 to NNSA. Detonator Production personnel shipped the lot to Pantex — the Laboratory will continue to support the W76 into the future. The sale and shipment of Lot 3354 was accomplished before the closeout of FY21, achieving a key milestone that required active participation from several stakeholders within the Lab, as well as organizations external to the Laboratory. Both organizations found remedies to address challenges associated with this lot that had persisted since 2019.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Automation of Plot Generation for Strategic Petroleum Reserve Cavern Leaching Monitoring

Monitoring cavern leaching after each calendar year of oil sales is necessary to support cavern stability efforts and long-term availability for oil drawdowns in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Modeling results from the SANSMIC code and recent sonars are compared to show projected changes in the cavern’s geometry due to leaching from raw-water injections. This report aims to give background on the importance of monitoring cavern leaching and provide a detailed explanation of the process used to create the leaching plots used to monitor cavern leaching. In the past, generating leaching plots for each cavern in a given leaching year was done manually, and every cavern had to be processed individually. A Python script, compatible with Earth Volumetric Studio, was created to automate most of the process. The script makes a total of 26 plots per cavern to show leaching history, axisymmetric representation of leaching, and SANSMIC modeling of future leaching. The current run time for the script is one hour, replacing 40-50 hours of the monitoring cavern leaching process.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DSO+T: Valuation Methodology and Economic Metrics (DSO+T Study: Volume 4)

This report summarizes a rigorous valuation analysis methodology used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to estimate the financial benefits and costs of adopting Transactive Energy coordination of distributed energy resources for key stakeholders (for example distribution system operators and customers). This was achieved by modeling the value exchanges between stakeholders and determining the annualized costs and revenues experienced by stakeholders, enabling the evaluation of overall impact on stakeholder’s annualized cash flow. Extensive work was conducted developing methods to estimate the operating costs of distribution system operators at a level of granularity that would allow the financial impact of implementing a transactive energy approach to be estimated. This work included developing parametric models for labor and software costs, distribution system capital and maintenance costs, growth rates, and factors to determine annualized costs of capital investments. Simulation results were used to calculate wholesale energy costs and revenues from retail sales. Valuation analysis methods were also developed for other stakeholders including customers, the transmission system operator, independent system operator, and generators. The resulting capability allows a complete mapping of the flow of financial value between stakeholders that can be directly integrated with the results of demand flexibility simulations. Example results are provided for a business-as-usual case and compared to a transactive energy case as well as to actual cost data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mitigate: An Adaptive Network Data Anonymization Tool Using Condensation-Based Differential Privacy

Modern network devices collect a large amount of data that can be analyzed to identify bottlenecks, anomalies, cyber-attacks, etc. Therefore, there is often a need to analyze such collections of network data quite often by an external expert or by the research community. However, these collections of data contain sensitive, proprietary information. In order for the network data to be shared, it must first be anonymized. The overall objective of this project is to develop an innovative privacy management tool to anonymize network data and achieve sufficient privacy, acceptable data utility, and efficient data analysis at the same time. No existing anonymization methods can achieve all of these at the same time. The core of this technology is a differential private clustering algorithm that provides strong privacy protection, preserves data properties important for subsequent analysis, and allows the party receiving the anonymized data to conduct analysis directly on anonymized data without the need of decryption or any extra processing. The research carried out was to design, implement and verify a solution to this problem by completing the following tasks: 1) developing the core technology; 2) developing a context based method that automatically recommends fields that must be anonymized; 3) conducted experiments showing superior results using our approach compared to existing tools, and 4) developed an intuitive but basic user interface. The research that was conducted generated novel algorithmic techniques that utilize state-of-the-art methods such as condensation, differential privacy preservation, clustering, automated tuning based on contextual awareness, and recommendation techniques to specify columns to users for anonymization leading to optimal privacy that allows research analysis on the dataset. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of these novel algorithmic techniques by performing analysis on original non-anonymized datasets, then conducting analysis on the same yet anonymized datasets and comparing the results of the analyses. Overall, the anonymized analysis results were within 1% of the original results, verifying that the generated technology not only guarantees a high level of privacy but also enables research analysis as if it were conducted on the original dataset. Potential applications of this technology include anonymization of any type of structured network datasets that contain sensitive identifiers, such as IP addresses, that can be used in multiple applications. For example, to create an AI or machine learning model for cyber security, e.g., to detect attacks, or for performance analysis, e.g., identify bottlenecks or predict performance. In addition, a market analysis that was conducted for potential applications of this technology identified a broader range of applications of our anonymization technology beyond the network sector that includes healthcare, banking, insurance, securities, finance (FISB), data brokering, cloud services, ad sales, and government.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Effect of the Addition of a Low Equivalent Stress Mechanism to the Analysis of Geomechanical Behavior of the SPR West Hackberry Site

Sandia National Laboratories has long used the Munson-Dawson (M-D) model to predict the geomechanical behavior of salt caverns used to store oil at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Salt creep causes storage caverns to deform inward, thus losing volume. This loss of volume affects the salt above and around the caverns, puts stresses and strains on borehole casings, and creates surface subsidence which affects surface infrastructure. Therefore, accurate evaluation of salt creep behavior drives decisions about cavern operations. Parameters for the M-D model are typically fit against laboratory creep tests, but nearly all historic creep tests have been performed at equivalent stresses of 8 MPa or higher. Creep rates at lower equivalent stresses are very slow, such that tests take months or years to run, and the tests are sensitive to small temperature perturbations (<0.1°C). A recent collaboration between US and German researchers, recently characterized the creep behavior at low equivalent (deviatoric) stresses (<8 MPa) of salt from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. In addition, the M-D model was recently extended to include a low stress creep “mechanism”. This paper details new simulations of SPR caverns that use this extended M-D model, called the M-D Viscoplastic model. The results show that the inclusion of low stress creep significantly alters the prediction of steady-state cavern closure behavior and indicate that low stress creep is the dominant displacement mechanism at the dome scale. The implications for evaluating cavern and well integrity are demonstrated by investigating three phenomena: the extent of stress changes around the cavern; the predicted vertical strains applied to wellbore casings; and the evaluation of oscillating stress changes around the cavern due to oil sale cycles and their potential effect on salt fatigue.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Valuation of Hydrogen Technology on the Electric Grid Using Production Cost Modeling: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00736

This research project will estimate the value to the United States electric grid of deploying hydrogen technology (such as electrolyzers and hydrogen-fueled generation) under projected conditions of high renewable penetration. The analysis will advance the state of the art in systems-level cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen technology for the electric grid by incorporating production cost modeling results in the analysis. Large-scale grid simulation tools will be used to evaluate total system production cost and grid operation when hydrogen technology is deployed for applications such as energy storage and demand response. Scenarios will include one or more future grid mixes in the Western Interconnect (WI) with a high proportion of intermittent renewables. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) will work with four utility companies to refine scenarios. Results of the analysis will include comparing the net cost of hydrogen to other technologies for long duration storage, and of power-to-gas (P2G) scenarios including merchant hydrogen sale and hydrogen-fueled generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

EV Retail Rate Design 101

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption has increased significantly over the past several years. More than 640,000 light-duty plug-in EVs were sold in the US in 2021, which was more than twice the number sold in 2020. Driven by existing state and federal financial incentives as well as increased choice in electric models, EVs are popular among car buyers and now account for more than 1-in-10 of all light- duty vehicles sold in the US. At the state-level, total California EV sales recently passed one million, while New York, Washington, and Florida each have more than 100,000 total EVs on the road.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Gasification of Coal and Biomass: The Route to Net-Negative-Carbon Power and Hydrogen

One promising process that is a candidate for meeting the goals of the US Department of Energy’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative is to gasify a mixture of coal and biomass to yield a syngas, which can have CO2 removed and then be used to produce hydrogen as well as an off-gas that can be used to flexibly produce power. This concept would overall be carbon net-negative and readily meet the 21st Century Power Plant initiative targets of smaller scale MW generation, high ramp rates and turndown, feedstock flexibility, and high efficiency—at a reasonable cost. Moreover, adding the large-scale production of “ultra-green” hydrogen yields a system tailored for the coming hydrogen economy, providing long-term energy storage and an attractive co-product for sale. The objective of the work being led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Bechtel Corporation (Bechtel), Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI), Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), NexantECA, Inc. (Nexant), and Wärtsilä, is to perform a front-end design and engineering (FEED) study on an oxygen-blown gasification system coupled with water-gas shift, pre-combustion CO2 capture, and pressure-swing adsorption working off a coal/biomass mix to yield high-purity hydrogen and a fuel off-gas that can generate power. Several designs are being considered that will be capable of producing 50 MW net from a flexible generator, over 8500 kg/hr of hydrogen, and net-negative CO2 emissions, at an efficiency of 50% net HHV. The plant would be hosted at an NPPD site, where opportunities for enhanced oil recovery and sequestration have been investigated and the need for low-carbon power and hydrogen is imminent. The principal biomass to be used is corn stover—prevalent in Nebraska where the plant will be located—mixed with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, necessitating a gasifier that can use this feedstock and be flexible to allow other types. Waste plastics will also be reviewed for use. Two oxygen-blown gasifiers have been identified as candidates that have done testing with biomass including corn stover: the GTI gasifier—a high-pressure, fluidized-bed type—and HMI’s, a lower pressure moving-bed type. Both have relative advantages that are being investigated in the Phase I design study, with a resultant down select of one system for which the FEED will be performed in Phase II. The technical tasks for the proposed project are: • Design Development: Completion of design activities necessary to provide inputs for the FEED study. Multiple design cases will be assessed with the selection of the optimal one for the FEED. • Investment Case Preparation: Development of the draft investment case for the proposed process with business cases performed for the proposed host site and two other locations. • Host Site Selection: Evaluation of the two potential host sites within NPPD’s portfolio to select the preferred candidate based on technical, economic, and environmental considerations. • Environmental Information Volume (EIV) Development: Completion of the EIV for the host site. • FEED Study: Completion of a FEED study based on the design selected in Phase I. A Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis will also be performed for the process. • Update Investment Case: Finalization of the investment case based on findings from the FEED. The advantages of the proposed project are significant. Having an engaged U.S. power utility willing to provide a host site that will produce energy from coal plus a deep and experienced team is critical; the process meets all the goals of DOE’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative at an estimated total plant cost of ~$880M and a production cost of hydrogen of ~$2/kg-H2 while producing net-negative carbon power. If developed, this process has real commercial potential in the United States—supported by EPRI’s initial review of the considerable interest from selected U.S. utilities—and elsewhere around the globe. The process has fewer environmental hurdles compared to other concepts, lowering regulatory and protest risks—providing a pathway to preserving the viability of a critical indigenous energy source by transforming its use to match a changing world. This presentation will outline the motivation for the effort, summarize project plans, work completed to date, results of the Design Development task, and detailed work scope for the remainder of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Commercial Building Fenestration Market Study

This study characterizes and assesses the U.S. commercial fenestration market. It analyzes a groundbreaking amount of data that will ultimately support an estimate of national savings potential of energy efficient fenestration products in commercial applications to demonstrate the benefits of efficient façade and fenestration systems. This study provides data and analysis on: commercial fenestration market and fenestration selection process, installed commercial fenestration stock across the U.S. and fenestration sales estimates, and current commercial building fenestration codes and market trends of installation to or above code.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CRADA Number NFE-19-07845 with American Nanotechnologies, Inc. (CRADA Final Report)

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) NFE-19-07845 between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and American Nanotechnologies, Inc. (ANI) focused on studying the use of dielectrophoresis as a mechanism to purify nanoparticles, particularly semiconducting carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The successful development of low-cost purification processes is a significant bottleneck in the adoption of semiconducting CNTs in commercial semiconducting devices. ANI is a startup company developing scalable systems for performing nanoparticle dielectrophoresis, which has previously been used only in microfluidic devices. The work done under this CRADA is exploring the use of ANI’s patent resonant dielectrophoresis (rDEP) technology and its ability to purify semiconducting CNTs at large scale. While continued work is on-going, r-DEP has proven to be a viable way to control nanoparticles in bulk dispersions. Optimization of the process is now underway to reach minimum viable product and begin material sales. Additionally, ANI and ORNL continue to collaborate on leveraging this technology to reach down the value chain and create new commercial devices.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Status Report 2: Advanced Nuclear Reactors Utilized for Synthetic Fuel Creation

Synthetic fuels (synfuels) are hydrocarbon fuels that source energy from electricity. Synfuels have the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions throughout the transportation sector. To achieve this substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the electricity must be sourced from zero- or near-zero-carbon fuel sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectricity, and nuclear power. Synfuels are produced from a combination of carbon and hydrogen sources. Hydrogen can be sourced from water electrolysis with near-zero-carbon electricity and heat (e.g., nuclear), while carbon dioxide can be sourced from ethanol and ammonia plants. In the hydrocarbon fuel synthesis process, hydrogen and carbon dioxide can be reacted to produce carbon monoxide and water, via the so-called reverse watergas shift reaction. Carbon monoxide can then react with additional hydrogen to form hydrocarbons, with carbon chains ranging from C1–C30 in the reaction known as the Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) synthesis reaction. The synthesized hydrocarbon molecules can then be hydro-processed with additional hydrogen and distilled into different carbon chain lengths so as to be compatible with existing conventional gasoline, jet, and diesel fuels. Carbon-free synfuel production comes with a “green premium” over the manufacture of identical products via conventional fossil fuels. Reports from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) reveal that hydrogen costs dominate the cost of carbon-free synfuel production. This suggests that for the cost of green synfuel to approach that of conventional petroleum fuel, the cost of hydrogen must be approximately $\$1$/kg. Of the primary low-carbon energy sources, only nuclear carries the potential to produce hydrogen at below $\$2$/kg. (Still a bit above the lofty $\$1$/kg goal, but perhaps manageable). To further identify the potential for creating low-cost synfuels capable of competing with legacy technologies, the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy has funded a multi-program, multi-lab effort among ANL, Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, and the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This collaboration effort will determine the possibility of using current and next generation nuclear reactors to create low-cost carbon-free synfuels for sale in the U.S. energy and commodities market.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Projecting California Light-Duty Vehicle Attributes (2019-2035)

In this report, we estimated a set of future vehicle attribute scenarios for new light-duty vehicles for the California market using the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT). ADOPT starts simulations with all existing vehicle makes and models and endogenously creates new vehicle models over time based on assumed technology improvements and market conditions. For this study, we simulated four scenarios with varied technology, policy, and electric vehicle infrastructure assumptions. We aggregated simulation results into up to 30 vehicle classes (covering size and price classifications) for each powertrain, for six powertrains. We simulated model years 2019 to 2035. We present results for four vehicle attributes: vehicle acceleration, fuel economy (including electric and gasoline for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs]), vehicle range, and vehicle purchase price. We also present results showing the estimated number of vehicle models available in each vehicle class over time. In the Mid scenario, which contains conditions between our most conservative and most optimistic assumptions for emerging electric and hydrogen technologies, we observe improvements in acceleration, range (for battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]), and vehicle purchase price for electric and hydrogen powertrains. In some cases, we project that consumer preferences lead to trade-offs between vehicle attributes, such as reduced fuel economy in exchange for improved acceleration. Conventional vehicles show modest improvements in fuel economy in these scenarios due to the high numbers of BEV and PHEV sales, which reduce the improvements required in conventional vehicles to meet fleet fuel economy standards. In scenarios with advanced technology assumptions (including reduced battery price and improved energy density), we observe further improvements in BEV range and price relative to the improvements in the Mid scenario.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Radiosonde Intercomparison and Validation (RIVAL) Field Campaign Report

Radiosondes provide the primary source of high-vertical-resolution temperature, humidity, and pressure data from the surface through to the lower stratosphere, and are a key component of the sustained measurement program at U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility observatories. At the end of 2017 the radiosonde manufacturer Vaisala ceased sales and production of the RS92 radiosondes, which were in use at the ARM field sites since 2005, and transitioned to the RS41 model. The Radiosonde Intercomparison and Validation (RIVAL) field campaign was proposed in order to undertake a sustained intercomparison and validation campaign at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) at Barrow, and Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatories in order to fully quantify the RS92-RS41 sonde differences and their dependence on all relevant influencing variables, and to understand the effects of the sonde model transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010 – 2021

The number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) sold in the United States has consistently grown since 2010, reaching 4% of the light-duty vehicle market in 2021. This report examines how the characteristics for these PEVs has changed over this decade, evaluating range, energy efficiency, costs, and performance. Given the vehicle characteristics, this report estimates miles driven, electricity consumption, petroleum reduction, and greenhouse gas emissions attributable to electric vehicles. This report also explores vehicle manufacturing and battery production, considering supply chains from battery cells to assembly. Over 2.1 million PEVs have been sold in the United States through December 2021, with 1.3 million of these all fully-electric battery electric vehicles (BEV), and 800,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) which have the capability of using gasoline. The sales-weighted average range for BEVs reached 290 miles in 2021 and 28 miles for PHEVs. We estimate that electric vehicles have driven 68 billion miles on electricity since 2010, thereby reducing national gasoline consumption by 0.54% in 2021 and 2.5 billion gallons cumulatively through 2021. In 2021, PEVs used 6.1 terawatt-hours of electricity to drive 19.1 billion miles, offsetting 700 million gallons of gasoline. We find that this fuel switching reduced consumer fuel costs by $1.3 billion in 2021. Since 2010, 65% of PEVs sold in the United States have been assembled domestically, and over 110 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion batteries have been installed in vehicles to date.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Consumer Purchasing Behavior and Usage of Lighting in the Residential Sector

We present the results of a 2019 online survey of 1,800 adults in the United States who recently purchased a light bulb to understand how consumers make decisions about purchasing light bulbs and how light bulbs are used in the residential sector. From our survey, we found that purchases of LED bulbs made up the largest percentage of sales by lighting technology and respondents generally had positive impressions of LEDs. We estimated the average daily hours of use for bulbs being purchased depending on bulb shape. We also provide an estimate for the lumen distribution of purchased light bulbs and the distribution of installation locations by bulb shape. We found that incandescent bulb purchasers were primarily replacing a failed incandescent bulb and these purchasers were less likely to have favorable impressions of LEDs. However, we found that the majority of participants replacing an incandescent bulb purchased either a CFL or LED. Using an adaptive conjoint analysis technique, we found that the five most important factors to consumers when choosing a light bulb are purchase price, bulb lifetime, energy cost savings relative to an incandescent bulb, light appearance, and energy savings relative to an incandescent bulb. The results of this study provide an in-depth look at the lighting market in 2019 and may provide a basis for developing models of the residential lighting market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗