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Axions, neutrinos and strings - The formation of structure in an SO(10) universe

In a class of grand unified theories containing SO(10), cosmologically significant axion and neutrino energy densities are obtainable naturally. To obtain large scale structure, both components of dark matter are considered to exist with comparable energy densities. To obtain large scale structure, inflationary and non-inflationary scenarios are considered, as well as scenarios with and without vacuum strings. It is shown that inflation may be compatible with recent observations of the mass density within galaxy clusters and superclusters, especially if strings are present.

Stecker, F. W.↗

Protogalactic mergers and cosmochronology

We construct schematic models for chemical evolution and cosmochronology within the expanding and collapsing protogalactic halo followed by formation of the local disk. Star formation is associated with both the rate of protogalactic mergers and the intrinsic gas density of protogalactic clouds and the disk. This leads naturally to a scenario in which star formation in the disk can be delayed by several billion years relative to the formation of the oldest globular clusters. We analyze various cosmochronometers in the context of this model and show that the apparent differences between the maximum globular-cluster ages, the white-dwarf cooling age, and nuclear chronometric ages can be understood. The merger models which satisfy the age constraints imply a relatively late forming peak in luminosity and therefore may be consistent with the observed peak in galaxy number counts at intermediate redshifts. Versions of the model with and without nonbaryonic dark matters can yield significant dark baryonic halos.

Mathews, G. J.↗

Nuclear Thermal Rocket/Vehicle Design Options for Future NASA Missions to the Moon and Mars

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) provides a unique propulsion capability to planners/designers of future human exploration missions to the Moon and Mars. In addition to its high specific impulse (approximately 850-1000 s) and engine thrust-to-weight ratio (approximately 3-10), the NTR can also be configured as a 'dual mode' system capable of generating electrical power for spacecraft environmental systems, communications, and enhanced stage operations (e.g., refrigeration for long-term liquid hydrogen storage). At present the Nuclear Propulsion Office (NPO) is examining a variety of mission applications for the NTR ranging from an expendable, single-burn, trans-lunar injection (TLI) stage for NASA's First Lunar Outpost (FLO) mission to all propulsive, multiburn, NTR-powered spacecraft supporting a 'split cargo-piloted sprint' Mars mission architecture. Each application results in a particular set of requirements in areas such as the number of engines and their respective thrust levels, restart capability, fuel operating temperature and lifetime, cryofluid storage, and stage size. Two solid core NTR concepts are examined -- one based on NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) derivative reactor (NDR) technology, and a second concept which utilizes a ternary carbide 'twisted ribbon' fuel form developed by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The NDR and CIS concepts have an established technology database involving significant nuclear testing at or near representative operating conditions. Integrated systems and mission studies indicate that clusters of two to four 15 to 25 klbf NDR or CIS engines are sufficient for most of the lunar and Mars mission scenarios currently under consideration. This paper provides descriptions and performance characteristics for the NDR and CIS concepts, summarizes NASA's First Lunar Outpost and Mars mission scenarios, and describes characteristics for representative cargo and piloted vehicles compatible with a reference 240 t-class heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) and smaller 120 t HLLV option. Attractive performance characteristics and high-leverage technologies associated with both the engine and stage are identified, and supporting parametric sensitivity data is provided. The potential for commonality of engine and stage components to satisfy a broad range of lunar and Mars missions is also discussed.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

Household energy resilience in extreme weather events: An investigation of energy service importance, HVAC usage behaviors, and willingness to pay

Household energy resilience, particularly maintaining essential energy services within an acceptable and affordable level, is critical during extreme weather events (e.g., winter storms, heat waves) with power shortages or outages. However, the research on the importance and acceptable compromise levels of energy services, HVAC usage behavior changes, and willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services during disasters is limited. Therefore, this study investigates the importance and compromise of household energy services, HVAC usage behaviors, and WTP, as three key dimensions of household energy resilience, in both normal days and disaster scenarios through surveys (n=485). First, 12 common residential end-uses are grouped into high, mid, and low-priority services using hierarchical clustering, in which high-priority services (perceived as important and un-compromisable) include food cooking and storage (refrigerator and freezer) and thermal comfort (space heating and cooling), mid-priority services involve water heating and lighting, while low-priority services are mostly related to entertainment and housework (e.g., TV, laundry). Also, HVAC use patterns demonstrate that occupants become more energy conservative during disasters, e.g., reducing durations of running HVAC and adjusting temperature setpoints to save energy. In terms of energy cost, approximately 60% of respondents are willing to pay more to maintain energy services during disasters, although only 13% are prepared to pay over double the normal energy prices. The regression models further reveal that household energy resilience varies across different sociodemographic groups (e.g., age, income, family size) and is impacted by disaster experience and beliefs in clean energy and climate. In conclusion, these research findings provide important perspectives to understand household energy resilience and inform measures for disaster adaptation of households in extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Is the M81 fast radio burst host globular cluster special?

We use multiband archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations to measure the photometric and structural parameters of the M81 globular cluster (GC) that hosts the fast radio burst FRB 20200120E. Our best-fitting King model has an effective radius rh = 3.06 pc with a moderate King model concentration of c = 53, and an inferred core radius of 0.81 pc. We revisit the exact astrometric location of the FRB within the cluster, and find that FRB 20200120E is located 1.92 pc from the center, but within the projected half-light radius. We estimate the relative encounter rate of the FRB host, along with the corresponding rates of 210 other GCs in M81, and compare these values with the encounter rates of Galactic GCs. The FRB resides in a GC with an encounter rate that is moderately higher than the median stellar encounter rate in our two comparison samples. While the estimated encounter rate of the FRB host cluster (e.g., ∼50% of a cluster like 47 Tuc) is sufficient to allow the possibility that the FRB formed dynamically, our results do not place strong constraints on this scenario due to the limitations of the available HST data and the possible systematic uncertainties and selection effects in the comparison data.

Kristen C. Dage↗

Scalable Pattern Matching in Metadata Graphs via Constraint Checking

Pattern matching is a fundamental tool for answering complex graph queries. Unfortunately, existing solutions have limited capabilities: They do not scale to process large graphs and/or support only a restricted set of search templates or usage scenarios. Moreover, the algorithms at the core of the existing techniques are not suitable for today’s graph processing infrastructures relying on horizontal scalability and shared-nothing clusters, as most of these algorithms are inherently sequential and difficult to parallelize. In this article we present an algorithmic pipeline that bases pattern matching on constraint checking. The key intuition is that each vertex and edge participating in a match has to meet a set of constraints implicitly specified by the search template. These constraints can be verified independently and typically are less expensive to compute than searching the full template. The pipeline we propose generates these constraints and iterates over them to eliminate all the vertices and edges that do not participate in any match, thus reducing the background graph to a subgraph that is the union of all template matches—the complete set of all vertices and edges that participate in at least one match. Additional analysis can be performed on this annotated, reduced graph, such as full match enumeration, match counting, or computing vertex/edge centrality. Furthermore, a vertex-centric formulation for constraint checking algorithms exists, and this makes it possible to harness existing high-performance, vertex-centric graph processing frameworks. This technique (i) enables highly scalable pattern matching in metadata (labeled) graphs; (ii) supports arbitrary patterns with 100% precision; (iii) enables tradeoffs between precision and time-to-solution, while always selects all vertices and edges that participate in matches, thus offering 100% recall; and (iv) supports a set of popular data analytics scenarios. We implement our approach on top of HavoqGT, an open-source asynchronous graph processing framework, and demonstrate its advantages through strong and weak scaling experiments on massive scale real-world (up to 257 billion edges) and synthetic (up to 4.4 trillion edges) labeled graphs, respectively, and at scales (1,024 nodes / 36,864 cores), orders of magnitude larger than used in the past for similar problems. This article serves two purposes: First, it synthesises the knowledge accumulated during a long-term project. Second, it presents new system features, usage scenarios, optimizations, and comparisons with related work that strengthen the confidence that pattern matching based on iterative pruning via constraint checking is an effective and scalable approach in practice. The new contributions include the following: (i) We demonstrate the ability of the constraint checking approach to efficiently support two additional search scenarios that often emerge in practice, interactive incremental search and exploratory search. (ii) We empirically compare our solution with two additional state-of-the-art systems, Arabsque and TriAD. (iii) We show the ability of our solution to accommodate a more diverse range of datasets with varying properties, e.g., scale, skewness, label distribution, and match frequency. (iv) We introduce or extend a number of system features (e.g., work aggregation, load balancing, and the ability to cap the generated traffic) and design optimizations and demonstrate their advantages with respect to improving performance and scalability. (v) We present bottleneck analysis and insights into artifacts that influence performance. (vi) We present a theoretical complexity argument that motivates the performance gains we observe.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Planet Occurrence Rate Correlated to Stellar Dynamical History: Evidence from Kepler and Gaia

The dynamical history of stars influences the formation and evolution of planets significantly. To explore the influence of dynamical history on the planet formation and evolution using observations, we assume stars that experienced significantly different dynamical histories tend to have different relative velocities. Utilizing the accurate Gaia–Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog, we select single main-sequence stars and divide these stars into three groups according to their relative velocities, i.e., high-V, medium-V, and low-V stars. After considering the known biases from Kepler data and adopting prior and posterior correction to minimize the influence of stellar properties on planet occurrence rate, we find that high-V stars have a lower occurrence rate of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes (1–4 R {sub ⊕}, P < 100 days) and a higher occurrence rate of sub-Earth (0.5–1 R {sub ⊕}, P < 30 days) than low-V stars. Additionally, high-V stars have a lower occurrence rate of hot Jupiter-sized planets (4–20 R {sub ⊕}, P < 10 days) and a slightly higher occurrence rate of warm or cold Jupiter-sized planets (4–20 R {sub ⊕}, 10 < P < 400 days). After investigating multiplicity and eccentricity, we find that high-V planet hosts prefer a higher fraction of multiplanet systems and lower average eccentricity, which are consistent with the eccentricity–multiplicity dichotomy of Kepler planetary systems. All of these statistical results favor the scenario that high-V stars with large relative velocity may experience fewer gravitational events, while low-V stars may be influenced by stellar clustering significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermonuclear flashes on accreting neutron stars

Observations of X-ray bursts from binary pulsars and globular clusters are reviewed. The previously proposed hypothesis is considered that such X-ray bursts result from thermonuclear flashes on accreting neutron stars. A general scenario for this mechanism is outlined, and numerical computations of the evolution of the surface layers of an accreting neutron star are discussed. The relation of these calculations to X-ray bursts and other phenomena is examined. Possible improvements in the numerical calculations are suggested.

Joss, P. C.↗

Clustered engine study

Several topics are presented in viewgraph form which together encompass the preliminary assessment of nuclear thermal rocket engine clustering. The study objectives, schedule, flow, and groundrules are covered. This is followed by the NASA groundrules mission and our interpretation of the associated operational scenario. The NASA reference vehicle is illustrated, then the four propulsion system options are examined. Each propulsion system's preliminary design, fluid systems, operating characteristics, thrust structure, dimensions, and mass properties are detailed as well as the associated key propulsion system/vehicle interfaces. A brief series of systems analysis is also covered including: thrust vector control requirements, engine out possibilities, propulsion system failure modes, surviving system requirements, and technology requirements. An assessment of vehicle/propulsion system impacts due to the lessons learned are presented.

Shepard, Kyle↗

Modular performance prediction for scientific workflows using Machine Learning

Scientific workflows provide an opportunity for declarative computational experiment design in an intuitive and efficient way. A distributed workflow is typically executed on a variety of resources, and it uses a variety of computational algorithms or tools to achieve the desired outcomes. Such a variety imposes additional complexity in scheduling these workflows on large scale computers. As computation becomes more distributed, insights into expected workload that a workflow presents become critical for effective resource allocation. In this paper, we present a modular framework that leverages Machine Learning for creating precise performance predictions of a workflow. The central idea is to partition a workflow in such a way that makes the task of forecasting each atomic unit manageable and gives us a way to combine the individual predictions efficiently. We recognize a combination of an executable and a specific physical resource as a single module. This gives us a handle to characterize workload and machine power as a single unit of prediction. Overall, our modular technique of creating atomic modules and deployment of longest-path approach to estimate workflow performance, allows the framework to adapt to highly complex nested directed acyclic workflows and scale to new scenarios, since it does not make assumptions of underlying workflow structure. We present performance estimation results of independent workflow modules executed on the XSEDE SDSC Comet cluster using various Machine Learning algorithms. The results provide insights into the behavior and effectiveness of different algorithms in the context of scientific workflow performance prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Two-point correlation function of cosmic-string loops

The two-point correlations of cosmic-string loops are studied with numerical simulations of the evolution of a cosmic-string network in an expanding universe. It is found that the initial positions of loops that are chopped off the network have a correlation function that is quite similar to the highest estimates of the Abell-cluster correlation function, but these correlations are rapidly washed out by the motion of the loops. The implications for the cosmic-string galaxy-formation scenario are briefly discussed.

Bennett, David P.↗

Constraining radio mode feedback in galaxy clusters with the cluster radio AGNs properties to z ∼ 1

ABSTRACT We study the properties of the Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) 843 MHz radio active galactic nuclei (AGNs) population in galaxy clusters from two large catalogues created using the Dark Energy Survey (DES): ∼11 800 optically selected RM-Y3 and ∼1000 X-ray selected MARD-Y3 clusters. We show that cluster radio loud AGNs are highly concentrated around cluster centres to $z$ ∼ 1. We measure the halo occupation number for cluster radio AGNs above a threshold luminosity, finding that the number of radio AGNs per cluster increases with cluster halo mass as N ∝ M1.2 ± 0.1 (N ∝ M0.68 ± 0.34) for the RM-Y3 (MARD-Y3) sample. Together, these results indicate that radio mode feedback is favoured in more massive galaxy clusters. Using optical counterparts for these sources, we demonstrate weak redshift evolution in the host broad-band colours and the radio luminosity at fixed host galaxy stellar mass. We use the redshift evolution in radio luminosity to break the degeneracy between density and luminosity evolution scenarios in the redshift trend of the radio AGNs luminosity function (LF). The LF exhibits a redshift trend of the form (1 + $z$)γ in density and luminosity, respectively, of γD = 3.0 ± 0.4 and γP = 0.21 ± 0.15 in the RM-Y3 sample, and γD = 2.6 ± 0.7 and γP = 0.31 ± 0.15 in MARD-Y3. We discuss the physical drivers of radio mode feedback in cluster AGNs, and we use the cluster radio galaxy LF to estimate the average radio-mode feedback energy as a function of cluster mass and redshift and compare it to the core (<0.1R500) X-ray radiative losses for clusters at $z$ < 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring New Ways to Classify Industries for Energy Analysis and Modeling

As the US moves closer to embracing a net zero greenhouse gas emissions position, combustion processes outside the power sector are becoming urgent concerns. Industry is an important end user of energy and relies on fossil fuels used directly for process heating and as feedstocks for a diverse range of applications. Fuel and energy use by industry is heterogeneous, meaning that even a single product group can vary broadly in its production routes and associated energy usage. In the US, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) serves as the basis for data collection and reporting. In turn, data based on NAICS is the foundation of most US energy modeling. Thus, the effectiveness of NAICS at representing energy use is a limiting condition for plans to improve energy efficiency and alternatives to fossil fuels in industry. Facility-level data to build more detail into heterogeneous sectors is scarce. This work explores alternative classification schemes for industry based on energy use characteristics, and provides a validation of an approach to make facility-level energy use estimates based on publicly available data from the greenhouse gas reporting program. First, several approaches to industrial taxonomies and their usefulness for industrial energy modeling are summarized. Data from Industrial Assessment Centers is analyzed using unsupervised machine learning techniques to detect clusters. Cladistics, an approach from biology, is adapted to energy and process characteristics of industries. A cladogram is presented for evolutionary directions in the iron and steel sector. Cladograms are a promising tool for constructing scenarios and summarizing directions of sectoral innovation. Finally, validation is performed for facility-level energy estimates from the US EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. This validation assists in making this data source available for use in energy modeling. Together, this work explores alternative approaches for categorizing industries in a way that aids understanding energy use, and presenting pathways for the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Requirements on the gain calibration for LiteBIRD polarisation data with blind component separation

The detection of primordial B modes of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could provide information about the early stages of the Universe's evolution. The faintness of this signal requires exquisite calibration accuracy and control of instrumental systematic effects which otherwise could bias the measurements. In this work, we study the impact of an imperfect relative polarisation gain calibration on the recovered value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r for the LiteBIRD experiment, through the application of the blind Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) foreground-cleaning method. We derive requirements on the relative calibration accuracy of the overall polarisation gain (Δg ν ) for each LiteBIRD frequency channel. Our results show that minimum variance techniques, as NILC, are less sensitive to systematic gain calibration uncertainties compared to a parametric approach, if the latter is not equipped with a proper modelling of these instrumental effects. In this study, the most stringent requirements are found in the channels where the CMB signal is relatively brighter, with the tightest constraints at 166 GHz (Δg ν ≈ 0.16%). This differs from the outcome of an analogous analysis performed with a parametric method, where the tightest requirements are obtained for the foreground-dominated channels. Gain calibration uncertainties, corresponding to the derived requirements, are then simultaneously propagated into all frequency channels. By doing so, we find that the overall impact on estimated r is lower than the total gain systematic budget for LiteBIRD approximately by a factor 5, due to the correlations of the impacts of gain calibration uncertainties in different frequency channels. In order to decouple the systematic effect from the specific choice of the model, we derive the requirements assuming constant spectral parameters for the foreground emission. To assess the robustness of the obtained results against more realistic scenarios, we repeat the analysis assuming sky models of intermediate and high complexity. In these further cases, we adopt an optimised NILC pipeline, called the Multi-Clustering NILC (MC-NILC). We find that the impact of gain calibration uncertainties on r is lower than the LiteBIRD gain systematics budget for the intermediate-complexity sky model. For the high-complexity case, instead, it would be necessary to tighten the requirements by a factor 1.8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Genesis of a planet in Messier 4

The anomalous spin period second derivative of the binary millisecond pulsar PSR 1620-26 in the globular cluster M4 is best explained by a sub-Jovian mass planet in a moderately eccentric about 7 AU orbit about the pulsar binary. We consider formation scenarios for PSR 1620-26. A planet scavenged from a single main-sequence star during an exchange encounter naturally produces systems such as PSR 1620-26. The position of the pulsar just outside the core of M4 is shown to fit naturally with the preferred formation scenario and permit a planet to have survived in the inferred orbit about the binary. It is possible that the orbital eccentricity of the binary was induced by the planet. A confirmation of a planet in eccentric orbit about PSR 1620-26 would strongly suggest that planets form ubiquitously around low-mass main-sequence stars, even stars of low metallicity.

Sigurdsson, Steinn↗

Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies

High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.

Romanski, Joy↗

Observations of the Hot Horizontal Branch Stars in the Metal-Rich Bulge Globular Cluster NGC 6388

The metal-rich bulge globular cluster NGC 6388 shows a distinct blue horizontal-branch tail in its colour-magnitude diagram (Rich et al. 1997) and is thus a strong case of the well-known 2nd Parameter Problem. In addition, its horizontal branch (HB) shows an upward tilt toward bluer colours, which cannot be explained by canonical evolutionary models. Several non-canonical scenarios have been proposed to explain these puzzling observations. In order to test the predictions of these scenarios, we have obtained medium resolution spectra to determine the atmospheric parameters of a sample of the blue HB stars in NGC 6388.Using the medium resolution spectra, we determine effective temperatures, surface gravities and helium abundances by fitting the observed Balmer and helium lines with appropriate theoretical stellar spectra. As we know the distance to the cluster, we can verify our results by determining masses for the stars. During the data reduction we took special care to correctly subtract the background, which is dominated by the overlapping spectra of cool stars. The cool blue tail stars in our sample with T(sub eff) approximately 10000 K have lower than canonical surface gravities, suggesting that these stars are, on average, approximately equal to 0.4 mag brighter than canonical HB stars in agreement with the observed upward slope of the HB in NGC 6388. Moreover, the mean mass of these stars agrees well with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the hot blue tail stars in our sample with T(sub eff) greater than or equal to 12000 K show significantly lower surface gravities than predicted by any scenario, which can reproduce the photometric observations. Their masses are also too low by about a factor of 2 compared to theoretical predictions. The physical parameters of the blue HB stars at about 10,000 K support the helium pollution scenario. The low gravities and masses of the hot blue tail stars, however, are probably caused by problems with the data reduction, most likely due to remaining background light in the spectra, which would affect the fainter hot blue tail stars much more strongly than the brighter cool blue tail stars. Our study of the hot blue tail stars in NGC 6388 illustrates the obstacles which are encountered when attempting to determine the atmospheric parameters of hot HB stars in very crowded fields using ground-based observations. We discuss these obstacles and offer possible solutions for future projects.

Moehler, S.↗