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DOE OSTI2026

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

2024 Standard Scenarios: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This data corresponds to the 2024 Standard Scenarios report, which contains a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the possible evolution of the U.S. electricity sector through 2050. These files contain modeled projections of the future. Although we strive to capture relevant phenomena as comprehensively as possible, the models used to create this data are unavoidably imperfect, and the future is highly uncertain. Consequentially, this data should not be the sole basis for making decisions. In addition to drawing from multiple scenarios within this set, we encourage analysts to also draw on projections from other sources, to benefit from diverse analytical frameworks and perspectives when forming their conclusions about the future of the power sector. For further discussions about the limitations of the models underlying this data, see section 1.4 of the "ReEDS Documentation" linked below. For scenario descriptions, input assumptions, and metric definitions for the data in these files, see the "2024 Standard Scenarios Report" linked below.

2050↗

DOE OSTI2024

Circular Economy Contributions to Decarbonizing the US Steel Sector

The potential benefits of the circular economy (CE) for decarbonization have recently attracted much attention in the academic and grey literature. The department of energy (DOE) industrial decarbonization roadmap highlight that in addition to the four pillars (energy efficiency, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)) identified in the roadmap, "scenarios [...] will need to be developed that incorporate materials efficiency and circular economy strategies". Moreover, the roadmap identifies hard-to-abate CO2 emissions across the five industrial subsectors included in the analysis (iron & steel, chemical, food & beverage, refining, and cement manufacturing). Thus, additional options to decarbonize the industrial sector, like the CE, could prove beneficial to address those hard-to-abate emissions. Moreover, they may be less costly, require less R&D or incentives, and be more readily adopted than other strategies such as energy efficiency and CCUS. While the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap includes some CE strategies (e.g., the increasing market share of steel from electric arc furnaces - which incorporate steel scrap), a deeper dive into what role the CE could play in the United States (US) industrial decarbonization is needed. In this work, we present several industrial decarbonization scenarios that incorporate materials efficiency and circular economy strategies for the iron & steel subsector. The scenarios identify barriers (including technical limits and constraints), opportunities, and R&D needs.Moreover, we estimate the contribution of those scenarios to reducing the industrial sector's CO2 emissions and their potential synergies with the Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap's four pillars. Iron & steel manufacturing was responsible for 90 million tons of industrial CO2 emissions in 2020 - 7% of the industrial sector's total process- related emissions. Besides recycling - which presents technical limitations due to trace contaminants - CE strategies on the demand side could lower iron & steel manufacturing emissions (e.g., the development of lighter products or business models that encourage a more intensive use). This study reviews barriers, opportunities, and trade-offs for 5 material efficiency strategies. Many topics explored in the review call for further research.

barriers↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systems Theory Principles and Complex Systems Engineering Concepts for Protection and Resilience in Critical Infrastructure: Lessons from the Nuclear Sector

Part of the Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21) (PPD 2013) mandate includes evaluating safety, security, and safeguards (or nonproliferation) mechanisms traditionally implemented within the nuclear reactors, materials, and waste sector of critical infrastructure—including a complex, dynamic set of risks and threats within an all-hazards approach. In response, research out of Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) explores the ability of systems theory principles (hierarchy and emergence) and complex systems engineering concepts (multidomain interdependence) to better understand and address these risks and threats. Herein, this Sandia research explores the safety, safeguards, and security risks of three different nuclear sector-related activities—spent nuclear fuel transportation, small modular reactors, and portable nuclear power reactors—to investigate the complex and dynamic risk related to the PPD-21-mandated all-hazards approach. This research showed that a systems-theoretic approach can better identify inter-dependencies, conflicts, gaps, and leverage points across traditional safety, security, and safeguards hazard mitigation strategies in the nuclear reactors, materials, and waste sector. Resulting from this, mitigation strategies from applying systems theoretic principles and complex systems engineering concepts can be (1) designed to better capture interdependencies, (2) implemented to better align with real-world operational uncertainties, and (3) evaluated as a systems-level whole to better identify, characterize, and manage PPD-21's all hazards strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hidden Sectors from Multiple Line Bundles for the B−L$B-L$ MSSM

Abstract We give a formalism for constructing hidden sector bundles as extensions of sums of line bundles in heterotic M‐theory. Although this construction is generic, we present it within the context of the specific Schoen threefold that leads to the physically realistic MSSM model. We discuss the embedding of the line bundles, the existence of the extension bundle, and a number of necessary conditions for the resulting bundle to be slope‐stable and thus supersymmetric. An explicit example is presented, where two line bundles are embedded into the factor of the maximal subgroup of the hidden sector E 8 gauge group, and then enhanced to a non‐Abelian bundle by extension. For this example, there are in fact six inequivalent extension branches, significantly generalizing that space of solutions compared with hidden sectors constructed from a single line bundle.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dark matter from a conformal Dark Sector

We consider theories in which a dark sector is described by a Conformal Field Theory (CFT) over a broad range of energy scales. A coupling of the dark sector to the Standard Model breaks conformal invariance. While weak at high energies, the breaking grows in the infrared, and at a certain energy scale the theory enters a confined (hadronic) phase. One of the hadronic excitations can play the role of dark matter. We study a “Conformal Freeze-In” cosmological scenario, in which the dark sector is populated through its interactions with the SM at temperatures when it is conformal. In this scenario, the dark matter relic density is determined by the CFT data, such as the dimension of the CFT operator coupled to the Standard Model. We show that this simple and highly predictive model of dark matter is phenomenologically viable. The observed relic density is reproduced for a variety of SM operators (“portals”) coupled to the CFT, and the resulting models are consistent with observational constraints. The mass of the COFI dark matter candidate is predicted to be in the keV-MeV range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quasi-sterile neutrinos from dark sectors. Part I. BSM matter effects in neutrino oscillations and the short-baseline anomalies.

Quasi-sterile neutrinos are a natural consequence of dark sectors interacting with the Standard Model (SM) sector via neutrino- and vector-portals. Essentially, quasi-sterile neutrinos are light dark sector fermions with two generic properties: (i) they mix with the active neutrinos of the SM, and (ii) they are charged under a vector mediator that couples feebly to SM matter. Various interesting phenomenological consequences result from this class of particles. In this article, we investigate one such consequence: new, beyond the SM matter effects that can alter in-medium neutrino oscillations. In particular, for special windows of energy and matter densities, active neutrinos can resonantly oscillate into sterile neutrinos. We take advantage of this feature to build a quasi-sterile neutrino model that can explain the MiniBooNE and LSND anomalies, while remaining compatible with observations from long-baseline reactor- and accelerator-based neutrino experiments. This model is also likely compatible with the recent results reported by the MicroBooNE collaboration (albeit we cannot precisely quantify this claim due to a lack of information in MicroBooNE’s public data releases to date). Implications for solar neutrinos and $ν_e$ disappearance searches are also briefly discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Jet substructure from dark sector showers

We examine the robustness of collider phenomenology predictions for a dark sector scenario with QCD-like properties. Pair production of dark quarks at the LHC can result in a wide variety of signatures, depending on the details of the new physics model. A particularly challenging signal results when prompt production induces a parton shower that yields a high multiplicity of collimated dark hadrons with subsequent decays to Standard Model hadrons. The final states contain jets whose substructure encodes their non-QCD origin. This is a relatively subtle signature of strongly coupled beyond the Standard Model dynamics, and thus it is crucial that analyses incorporate systematic errors to account for the approximations that are being made when modeling the signal. We estimate theoretical uncertainties for a canonical substructure observable designed to be sensitive to the gauge structure of the underlying object, the two-point energy correlator $ {e}_2^{\left(\beta \right)} $ , by computing envelopes between resummed analytic distributions and numerical results from Pythia. We explore the separability against the QCD background as the confinement scale, number of colors, number of flavors, and dark quark masses are varied. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties inherent to modeling dark sector hadronization. Simple estimates are provided that quantify one’s ability to distinguish these dark sector jets from the overwhelming QCD background. Such a search would benefit from theory advances to improve the predictions, and the increase in statistics using the data to be collected at the high luminosity LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A novel sector mass spectrograph design for high-order coded aperture Mass Spectrometry with stigmatic aberration correction

Previous works experimentally demonstrated that the application of spatially-coded apertures to simple sector mass spectrographs can result in increased signal intensity while maintaining spectral resolution comparable to that of a conventional slit aperture.[Chen, E.X., et al.: J Am Soc Mass Spectr. 26, 1633 (2015)][Russell, Z.E., et al.: J Am Soc Mass Spectr. 26, 248 (2015)] This spatial coding technique was later applied to a double-focusing Mattauch-Herzog mass spectrograph, and shown to be generally compatible with the architecture.[Russell, Z.E., et al.: J Am Soc Mass Spectr. 27, 1 (2016)] However, the achieved signal gain was limited by the spatial size of the electric sector gap. In this work, we introduce a modified version of the Mattauch-Herzog mass spectrograph with a wide-gap electric sector that is enabled by a novel, segmented-electrode approach, and show via simulation that this modified architecture alone (without aperture coding) achieves a 1.8x improvement in mass resolving power compared to a conventional Mattauch-Herzog spectrograph of equivalent size. Further, simulation of an aperture-coded version of the instrument supports a predicted signal strength increase of 50x with minimal loss of aperture clarity on the sensor due to the increased open area of the high-order coded aperture which can be passed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy-water interdependencies across the three major United States electric grids: A multi-sectoral analysis

As water availability and timing of delivery fluctuates and the US electric grid sees rapid transformation and reconfiguration under decarbonization and resource adequacy strategies, there is a critical need for information and data that supports understanding the water-energy interdependency landscape. The United States currently lacks comprehensive data, informative visualizations, and analysis of energy-water interdependencies at scales necessary to support resource and operational decision-making. This article provides US electricity interconnection-level Sankey diagrams that show the relative reliance of water and energy across various economic sectors. A deeper analysis is additionally provided at the county level to illustrate trends and potential opportunities related to resiliency and efficiency in multi-sectoral water and energy flow distributions and intensities. We find that the electricity interconnections in the US vary dramatically in their water and energy interdependencies across applications and economic sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum simulations of dark sector showers

We consider dark sector scenarios where dark matter is accompanied by a dark photon and multiple-flavor dark fermions charged under the dark gauge group. We study quantum interference effects in dark sector jets, where multiple dark photons are emitted from high-energy dark fermions. We perform fully quantum simulations of dark sector showers and compare the results against those of the classical Monte-Carlo simulations. We find important differences in probability distributions of dark photon countings between quantum and classical computations. When the number of dark-fermion flavors is large, we find significant enhancements in large numbers of dark photon emissions. Such enhancements can provide distinguishing signals for our scenarios at particle colliders.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global monthly sectoral water use for 2010–2100 at 0.5° resolution across alternative futures

Water usage is closely linked with societal goals that are both local and global in scale, such as sustainable development and economic growth. It is therefore of value, particularly for long-term planning, to understand how future sectoral water usage could evolve on a global scale at fine resolution. Additionally, future water usage could be strongly shaped by global forces, such as socioeconomic and climate change, and the multi-sector dynamic interactions those forces create. We generate a novel global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawal and consumption dataset at 0.5° resolution for 2010–2100 for a diverse range of 75 scenarios. The scenarios are harmonized with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to support its usage in studies evaluating the implications of uncertain human and earth system change for future global and regional dynamics. To generate the data, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a land use spatial downscaling model (Demeter), a global hydrologic framework (Xanthos), and a water withdrawal downscaling model (Tethys).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark radiation constraints on portal interactions with hidden sectors

Here, we update dark radiation constraints on millicharged particle (MCP) and gauged baryon-number-minus-lepton-number (B-L) extensions of the Standard Model (SM). In these models, a massive SM gauge singlet mediator couples the SM plasma to additional SM-singlet light degrees of freedom. In the early Universe, these new light particles are populated via the interaction of the SM with the MCP, or the new B-L gauge boson, and act as dark radiation. The presence of dark radiation in the early Universe is tightly constrained by current and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements. We update bounds on MCPs from current measurements of N eff and show that future CMB experiments will be able to rule out or discover the extended MCP model invoked to explain the EDGES anomaly. Our analysis of the gauged B-L model goes beyond previous studies by including quantum-statistical and out-of-equilibrium effects. Further, we account for the finite lifetime of the B-L gauge boson, which boosts the subsequent right-handed neutrino energy density. We also develop a number of approximations and techniques for simplifying and solving the relevant Boltzmann equations. We use our approximations to develop a lower bound on the radiation density in a generic hidden sector with a light relic that is insensitive to the details of the hidden sector, provided the mediator interacts more strongly with the hidden sector than with the SM.

cosmological neutrinos↗

DOE OSTI2021

Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector

Abstract Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Search for Dark Sector 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − Explanations of the MiniBooNE Anomaly at MicroBooNE

We present MicroBooNE’s first search for dark sector 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − explanations of the long-standing MiniBooNE anomaly. The MiniBooNE anomaly has garnered significant attention over the past 20 years including previous MicroBooNE investigations into both anomalous electron and photon excesses, but its origin still remains unclear. In this Letter, we provide the first direct test of dark sector models in which dark neutrinos, produced through neutrino-induced scattering, decay into missing energy and visible 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − pairs comprising the MiniBooNE anomaly. Many such models have recently gained traction as a viable solution to the anomaly while evading past bounds. Using an exposure of 6.87 × 10 20 protons-on-target in the Booster Neutrino Beam, we implement a selection targeting forward-going, coherently produced 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − events. After unblinding, we observe 95 events, which we compare with the constrained background-only prediction of 69.7 ±17.3. This analysis sets the world’s first direct limits on these dark sector models and, at the 95% confidence level, excludes the entirety of the single dark neutrino and majority of the dual dark neutrino, parameter space that is viable as a solution to the MiniBooNE anomaly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) Resource Extraction Sector Technology Roadmap 2021

The National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) is a research consortium formed to accelerate transformative research in desalination and treatment to lower the cost and energy required to produce clean water from nontraditional water sources and realize a circular water economy. NAWI’s goal is to enable the manufacturing of energy-efficient desalination technologies in the United States at a lower cost with the same (or higher) quality and reduced environmental impact for 90 percent of nontraditional water sources within the next 10 years. The nontraditional source waters of interest include brackish water; seawater; produced and extracted water; power, mining, industrial, municipal, and agricultural waste waters. When these desalination and treatment technologies are fully developed and utilized, they will be able to contribute to the water needs for many existing end-use sectors. NAWI has identified five end-use sectors that are critical to the U.S. economy for further exploration: Power, Resource Extraction, Industry, Municipal, and Agriculture (PRIMA). This Resource Extraction Sector roadmap aims to advance desalination and treatment of nontraditional source waters for beneficial use in public water supplies by identifying research and development (R&D) opportunities that help overcome existing treatment challenges. Under NAWI’s vision, the transition from a linear to a circular water economy with nontraditional source waters will be achieved by advancing desalination and reuse technologies in six key areas: Autonomous operations, Precision separations, Resilient treatment and transport, Intensified brine management, Modular membrane systems, and Electrified treatment systems, collectively known as the A-PRIME areas. Technological advances in these different areas will enable nontraditional source waters to achieve pipe parity with traditional supplies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗