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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying uncertainty in regional-scale seismic moment tensors

We examine the ability of three different inversion methods: 1) first motion (FM) inversions, 2) amplitude inversions, and 3) full waveform (FW) time variable moment tensor (TVMT) inversions, to recover an accurate source mechanism for simulated data for an earthquake as well as an explosion. The ability of inversion methods, such as the ones described above, to recover accurate models representative of the data depends on both a priori information as well as the quality of data being inverted. Therefore, we examine the effect that station geometry, geologic model, and noise level has on the inversion and estimated source mechanism. We find that FM data can provide more robust solutions than amplitude data and are not as sensitive to inaccurate earth models, especially in low-noise cases, and overall FW inversions are the most accurate out of the methods examined, but can still be biased by inaccurate earth models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Traffic Congestion Through Visual Cues: Advancing Transportation Safety and Efficiency

While humans have an innate ability to estimate speed and distance, this capability is inherently imprecise. This imprecision has significant implications for traffic systems, which are highly sensitive to fluctuations in movement. Even small variations in velocity and following distances between travelers can create congestion in high-traffic environments. The absence of an effective and widely adopted solution creates significant transportation inefficiency. However, emerging technologies offer promising ways to help mitigate this issue. This paper will analyze the effectiveness of visual cues in reducing traffic congestion. Specifically, this paper presents an experiment using addressable LEDs to evaluate their effectiveness in influencing pedestrian behavior. These programmable lights enable individual control over each LED in a strip, allowing for dynamic lighting effects that serve as useful visual cues. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that visual cues, such as addressable LED guidance, can effectively influence traveler behavior and contribute to reducing traffic congestion.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

First operation of superconducting quantum bits as particle detectors

Transmon qubits are among the leading technologies for the development of future quantum computers. However these superconducting devices are sensitive to ionizing radiation, which reduces their coherence time and leads to correlated errors. This study represents the first quantitative estimation of cosmic rays and ambient radiation impact on transmon qubits. In the shielded underground facility at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS), errors induced by the interaction of a radioactive source were reconstructed with an efficiency of about 10%. In contrast, in the unshielded above-ground facility at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), cosmic and ambient radiation impacts were detected with an efficiency ranging from 10% to 20% by modifying the acquisition protocol. Lastly, the simultaneous readout of three transmons in coincidence was demonstrated, achieving an event reconstruction efficiency of 90% when the devices were illuminated with an LED.

Bonomo, Camilla [Rome U.; INFN, Rome]↗
DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium expectations for non-Gaussian fluctuations near a QCD critical point

With the highly anticipated results from the Beam Energy Scan II program at RHIC being recently revealed, an understanding of particle-number fluctuations and their significance as a potential signature of a possible QCD critical point is crucial. Early works that embarked on this endeavor sought to estimate the fluctuations due to the presence of a critical point assuming they stay in equilibrium. From these results came the proposal to focus efforts on higher, non-Gaussian, moments of the event-by-event distributions, in particular of the number of protons. These non-Gaussian moments are especially sensitive to critical fluctuations, as their magnitudes are proportional to high powers of the critical correlation length. As the equation of state provides key input for hydrodynamical simulations of heavy-ion collisions, we estimate equilibrium fluctuations from the BEST equation of state (EoS) that includes critical features from the 3D Ising Model. In particular, the proton factorial cumulants and their dependence on non-universal mapping parameters is investigated within the BEST EoS. Furthermore, the correlation length, as a central quantity for the assessment of fluctuations in the vicinity of a critical point, is also calculated in a consistent manner with the scaling equation of state. An understanding of the equilibrium estimates of proton factorial cumulants will be useful for further comparison to estimates of out-of-equilibrium fluctuations in order to determine the magnitude of the observable fluctuations to be expected in heavyion collision experiments, in which the time spent near a critical point is short.

Karthein, Jamie M. [Massachusetts Institute of Tec↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Clumping Index Estimation With 30°-tilted Cameras in Row Crops: Evaluation of Methods and Segment Size Effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Semi‐Mechanistic Model for Partitioning Evapotranspiration Reveals Transpiration Dominates the Water Flux in Drylands

Abstract Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well‐suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine‐scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi‐mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process‐based models, and loosely constrains time‐varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross‐wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub‐yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem‐scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adapting CLUTCH methodology to multigroup TSUNAMI-3D for eigenvalue sensitivity calculations

The sensitivity of the eigenvalue to uncertainties in nuclear data and its evaluation are important for nuclear criticality safety. TSUNAMI-3D sequences within the SCALE code system offer several options to the user community for calculating eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients with multigroup (MG) and continuous energy (CE) 3D transport capabilities. TSUNAMI-3D sequences implement the adjoint-based perturbation theory with MG KENO code, the Contributon Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Track length importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method with CE KENO code, and the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method with CE KENO and Shift codes. Each method has benefits and limitations depending on the problem that is run. The work presented here aims to adapt the CLUTCH method, which enables the Contributon method's mesh-free, memory-efficient approach for calculating adjoint-weighted tallies for sensitivity calculations, to the MG TSUNAMI-3D sequence. This application would eliminate the explicit adjoint KENO calculation, as well as the memory-consuming mesh flux moment tallies required by the conventional MG TSUNAMI-3D. Smaller memory footprints in the CLUTCH methodology and relatively shorter runtimes in MG KENO transport can make MG TSUNAMI-3D a viable method for some complex problems. Moreover, this adaptation allows MG sensitivity calculations with Shift, ORNL's next-generation high-performance Monte Carlo transport code, which currently does not offer any sensitivity capabilities with MG particle transport simulations. Initial implementation of the new MG TSUNAMI-3D sequence and its preliminary results with a selected critical benchmark experiment in the Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) are presented in this study.

KENO↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining Stress Orientation in Rock Valley, Nevada, Using Ambient Seismic Noise

The stress field and the mechanical properties of rocks are important to consider for nuclear explosion monitoring due to their effect on seismic wave radiation from earthquakes and explosions. At the Rock Valley Direct Comparison site, the regional orientation of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SH max ) is well constrained, but it is unknown whether there are local heterogeneities. Here, I show that stress-induced anisotropy in nonlinear elasticity can be used to estimate the orientation of SH max . Rocks have compliant internal contacts, such as fractures and mineral grain boundaries, that respond to applied strains more strongly than individual mineral crystals. This strain response is asymmetric between compressive and dilatational strains and is affected by anisotropy in the ambient stress field. Traditional seismic velocity measurements are of strain-averaged velocity, which is less sensitive than nonlinear elasticity to the behavior of compliant internal contacts and therefore the stress field and fracture behavior. My results show that the orientation of SH max measured using ambient seismic noise aligns with regional estimates, with some heterogeneity that can also be explained by the limitations of the seismic array. I demonstrate the potential of a passive technique for monitoring the stress field in places that currently lack local measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The neutrino force in neutrino backgrounds: Spin dependence and parity-violating effects

The neutrino force results from the exchange of a pair of neutrinos. A neutrino background can significantly influence this force. In this work, we present a comprehensive calculation of the neutrino force in various neutrino backgrounds with spin dependence taken into account. In particular, we calculate the spin-independent and spin-dependent parity-conserving neutrino forces, in addition to the spin-dependent parity-violating neutrino forces with and without the presence of a neutrino background for both isotropic and anisotropic backgrounds. Compared with the vacuum case, the neutrino background can effectively violate Lorentz invariance and lead to additional parity-violating terms that are not suppressed by the velocity of external particles. We estimate the magnitude of the effect of atomic parity-violation experiments, and it turns out to be well below the current experimental sensitivity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved nuclear-structure corrections to the hyperfine splitting of electronic and muonic deuterium

We calculate the nuclear-structure correction to the hyperfine splitting in both electronic and muonic deuterium using interactions from chiral effective field theory. We explore the sensitivity to different parameterizations of the nucleon-nucleon force, study the convergence pattern in the order-by-order chiral expansion, and estimate remaining uncertainties. Our results are consistent with earlier calculations from pionless effective field theory, offering new insights for a robust uncertainty quantification. Thanks to the order-of-magnitude reduction in uncertainty achieved with chiral effective field theory, the two-photon exchange contribution in electronic deuterium agrees with experimental extractions within 0.5σ, in contrast to the 2.6σ discrepancy observed in muonic deuterium. This study lays the groundwork for extending TPE calculations to HFS in heavier atomic systems.

Chiral effective field theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting Short Circuits: Post Accident Electric Vehicle Battery Safety Check

Fast and accurate detection of soft short circuits (SCs) in the battery packs of damaged electric vehicles is needed by first responders and mechanics to mitigate the potential risk from battery fires that may occur hours, days, or weeks after an accident. Here, this paper presents an SC-detection algorithm for potentially damaged lithium-ion batteries that works quickly and without a priori knowledge of the battery-pack chemistry, capacity, state of charge, or state of health. The proposed universal SC-detection algorithm is designed to be implemented on an inexpensive handheld device that can connect to and monitor the voltages of all cells in a pack. Transient filtering and linear-quadratic state observation provide estimates of normalized SC current for every cell in the pack. Cells with SC-current estimates outside a sigma-based threshold are detected. Simulations, experiments, and electric vehicle (EV) crash data are used to verify the speed, sensitivity, and accuracy of the method, demonstrating 96% accurate detection of 0.0027 C SCs in under 1 h for 5S cell groups in the lab and no false positives for crashed Volkswagen, Chevrolet, and Tesla vehicles without SCs.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost of Wind Energy Review: 2024 Edition [Slides]

The primary elements of this analysis include: Estimated LCOE for (1) a representative land-based wind energy project installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States, (2) a representative fixed-bottom offshore wind energy project installed in the U.S. North Atlantic, and (3) a representative floating offshore wind energy project installed off the U.S. Pacific Coast. It also updates the LCOE estimates for representative residential-, commercial-, and large-scale distributed wind projects installed in a moderate wind resource in the United States. A sensitivity analyses is included that shows the range of effects that basic LCOE variables could have on the cost of wind energy for land-based and offshore wind projects and provides updated Fiscal Year 2024 values for land-based and offshore wind energy used for Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) reporting and illustrated progress toward established GPRA targets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bench-Scale Development of Promoted High-Capacity Structured Sorbents (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop high-capacity structured sorbent capable of achieving low CO 2 removal from air. The sorbent framework consists of an amine-functionalized onto hydrophobic polymer backbone with an added promoter. The functionalized amine provides high CO 2 capacity and adsorption rates and the polymer backbone to reduce water uptake. For the sorbent development, multiple functionalized amines and promoters were assessed to select a candidate that achieved high CO 2 capacity, high adsorption rate, and high stability. A sorbent-coated filter design was selected as the structured sorbent, which provides high sorbent loading capacity and contains an electrically conductive nonwoven filter substrate that can be Joule-heated to provide efficient utilization of available electricity for sorbent regeneration. A commercial partner operated a pilot filter manufacturing line to produce the filter panels coated with the developed sorbent. A 1 kg CO 2 /day bench unit was designed and fabricated to test the structured filter sorbent. The key achievements from the structured sorbent development activity were demonstrating that existing filter industrial-scale processes can be used for manufacturing Susteon’s structured sorbent and completing a proof-of-concept demonstration of the commercially manufactured structured sorbent filters for CO 2 capture from air with direct, Joule-heated regeneration. A techno-economic assessment with sensitivity analysis was conducted on a 100,000 TPY facility with 85% operating capacity. Through sorbent optimization and process design improvements, it is estimated that the cost of capture was reduced from $\$$349/tCO 2 to $\$$241/tCO 2 . The TEA projects further reductions to $165/tCO 2 through enhancements in CO 2 adsorption rate and sorbent capacity and reducing manufacturing and scale up risks. A life cycle analysis was conducted on the same 100,000 TPY facility and confirmed that the facility’s electricity demand drives its greenhouse gas impact. It was determined that electricity supplied through the current grid mix would result in net-positive CO 2 emissions and that achieving net-negative emissions is only possible by powering the system with renewable electricity or fossil fuel sources equipped with carbon capture and sequestration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗