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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

The role of quantum computing in advancing scientific high-performance computing: A perspective from the ADAC institute

Quantum computing (QC) has gained significant attention over the past two decades due to its potential for speeding up classically demanding tasks. This transition from an academic focus to a thriving commercial sector is reflected in substantial global investments. While advancements in qubit counts and functionalities continue at a rapid pace, current quantum systems still lack the scalability for practical applications, facing challenges such as too high error rates and limited coherence times. Here, this perspective paper examines the relationship between QC and high-performance computing (HPC), highlighting their complementary roles in enhancing computational efficiency. It is widely acknowledged that even fully error-corrected QC will not be suited for all computational tasks. Rather, future compute infrastructures are anticipated to employ quantum acceleration within hybrid systems that integrate HPC and QC. While QC can enhance classical computing, traditional HPC remains essential for maximizing quantum acceleration. This integration is a priority for supercomputing centers and companies, sparking innovation to address the challenges of merging these technologies. The novelty of this work lies in its unique perspective, reflecting the collective insights of the Accelerated Data Analytics and Computing (ADAC) Institute, a global consortium of over 20 leading HPC centers. Recognizing the growing importance of QC, ADAC established a Quantum Computing Working Group in 2023 to foster collaboration and knowledge-sharing among its members. This paper synthesizes insights from the group’s collaborative efforts and incorporates findings from a member survey that captures shared experiences, ongoing projects, and strategic directions. By outlining the current landscape and challenges of QC integration into HPC ecosystems, this work offers HPC specialists practical and forward-looking guidance on the opportunities and implications of QC in computationally intensive endeavors.

Accelerated Data Analytics and↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating science for water security governance

Hydrological extremes are intensifying globally, increasing the complexity of decisions required to ensure water security. Advances in hydrological science, modeling, and data systems have expanded the technical frontier of water research, yet uptake of scientific insights in policy and management decisions remains limited. This persistent science–policy gap is not primarily a failure of knowledge generation or robustness, but an institutional challenge shaped by how scientific and governance systems are organized, coordinated, and connected to support the effective use of scientific knowledge. These challenges are particularly pronounced in multi-level and transboundary water governance, where decisions span jurisdictions and require coordination across institutional and political boundaries. We synthesize research at the science–policy interface and evidence from water security initiatives to show how institutional arrangements, scientific tool development, and research practices enable or constrain the sustained use of scientific knowledge in water-security governance processes. Building on these insights, we develop ‘shared decision infrastructure’ as a framing to describe how scientific knowledge is embedded within the institutional, relational, and procedural arrangements that connect science to decision-making processes over time. We translate this framing into a practical intervention roadmap centered on institutional design, tool translation, sustained co-production, and outcome-oriented evaluation to support the integration of science into ongoing governance processes. By positioning science as shared decision infrastructure, the roadmap clarifies how researchers can design scientific efforts that support more coordinated, accountable, and adaptive water security decisions amid deepening uncertainty.

M whitney, Kristen [NASA Goddard Space Flight Cent↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deployment Pathways for Long Duration Energy Storage

We apply a least-cost generation expansion model of the continental United States to assess how optimal investments in long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies are impacted by changes in system generation portfolios and technology costs, assessing 369 capacity expansion scenarios in total. The expansion model considers 8,760 h of chronological operations for the entire target year, 2040. We find that low-cost LDES technologies can reduce generation investments and system costs. Specifically, once the costs for 24- and 100-h storage reach $38/kWh and $14/kWh, respectively, substantial deployments are observed. The distribution of storage investments across durations is strongly influenced by the system generation portfolio. We also demonstrate that a high-fidelity temporal representation is required to capture the value of LDES in generation expansion. Finally, we conduct a regression analysis of our capacity expansion results and find that LDES deployments are positively correlated with the combined wind and solar capacity share and negatively correlated with peaking and baseload shares.

Levin, Todd↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Online task-space motion control for positioner-coordinated multi-robot manufacturing systems

Incorporating multiple robotic manipulators into large-scale manufacturing systems enhances production efficiency and expands manufacturing capabilities beyond those of single-robot systems. Workpiece positioners in robotic manufacturing have demonstrated significant benefits for process optimization, but coordination strategies for multi-robot systems with shared positioners have received limited attention. This work presents a task-space coordinated trajectory-tracking control framework for multi-robot manufacturing systems, in which robots coordinate their motions within a shared, dynamic workpiece positioning frame. A workpiece positioner actively adjusts the pose of the manufactured component to enable greater operational concurrency and improve overall production efficiency. The proposed motion-coordination scheme employs a distributed and scalable architecture, supporting coordination across heterogeneous multi-robot systems. Two optimization methodologies are introduced to manage kinematic redundancies and maintain continuous, near-optimal operation throughout the manufacturing process. The first strategy exploits a task-space dimensionality reduction to achieve locally optimal configurations by leveraging symmetry-axis rotations of the tool. The second strategy utilizes the workpiece positioner to drive the coordinated robots toward stable and kinematically favorable configurations. For both optimization strategies, multiple objectives are defined to improve key performance metrics, including manipulability, configuration consistency, proximity to mechanical limits, and motion efficiency. Addressing a key limitation of existing coordination approaches, the framework is designed around online setpoint modification, allowing coordinated robots to respond effectively to in-situ process feedback. The proposed control framework is validated using the Robot Operating System (ROS) middleware on a combination of physical and simulated multi-robot system hardware.

Arbogast, Alex [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000154740723)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Facebook to Recruit Urban Participants for Smartphone-Based Travel Surveys

Social media has become an integral part of everyday life for many individuals, serving as a platform to express opinions, share memories and lifestyles, follow news, and adapt to social trends and norms. The wealth of user information and analytics on these platforms has facilitated the development and sale of tailored products and services, benefiting advertisers and researchers seeking survey participants. Social media advertising has demonstrated its effectiveness in reaching hard-to-reach populations. However, transport researchers have yet to capitalise on this potential fully. This paper presents our experience using social media to recruit participants for two smartphone travel surveys conducted in Australia. We demonstrate that social media recruitment and smartphone-based travel surveys are highly effective, adaptable, and can be rapidly deployed in response to research opportunities, such as during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic when traditional methods may be less suitable. This approach also holds great potential for travel surveys targeting the general population. This paper shares several lessons from this experiment, including our administrative approach and detailed technical instructions to utilise open-source software tools for conducting smartphone travel surveys like ours. This approach significantly reduces study costs compared to most commercial solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Vision for Standardization of Biopolymer Data Sets for Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) is transforming materials research, yet potential for biopolymer discovery remains constrained by fragmented data and nonstandardized reporting. Biopolymers differ significantly from synthetic polymers, requiring specialized approaches to represent their biosynthetic origins, hierarchical structures, and application-specific metrics. In this Perspective, we identify three core challenges limiting biopolymer representation: information encoding, data quality, and data sharing. We describe the most pressing issues and propose commensurate approaches to address each key challenge. Recommendations include the design and adoption of biopolymer-specific fingerprinting and representation frameworks, development of hybrid human-large language model (LLM) data extraction strategies, and expanding Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR)-compliant repositories. We propose a robust foundation to define interoperable, high-quality data sets that capture the full context of biopolymer materials. Standardized metadata, shared ontologies, and community-driven infrastructure would enable scalable, reproducible workflows and accelerate the ML-driven development of biopolymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ba 4 RuMn 2 O 10 : A Noncentrosymmetric Polar Crystal Structure with Disordered Trimers

Phase-pure polycrystalline Ba 4 RuMn 2 O 10 was prepared and determined to adopt the noncentrosymmetric polar crystal structure (space group Cmc2 1 ) based on results of second harmonic generation, convergent beam electron diffraction, and Rietveld refinements using powder neutron diffraction data. The crystal structure features zigzag chains of corner-shared trimers, which contain three distorted face-sharing octahedra. The three metal sites in the trimers are occupied by disordered Ru/Mn with three different ratios: Ru1:Mn1 = 0.202(8):0.798(8), Ru2:Mn2 = 0.27(1):0.73(1), and Ru3:Mn3 = 0.40(1):0.60(1), successfully lowering the symmetry and inducing the polar crystal structure from the centrosymmetric parent compounds Ba 4 T 3 O 10 (T = Mn, Ru; space group Cmca). The valence state of Ru/Mn is confirmed to be +4 according to X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy. Ba 4 RuMn 2 O 10 is a narrow bandgap (~0.6 eV) semiconductor exhibiting spin-glass behavior with strong magnetic frustration and antiferromagnetic interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mo 4 FeGa 17.25– x Ge x : Complementary Point Substitutions, Buffering Frameworks, and Merging of the 18-n and Octet Bonding Schemes

We present the discovery of Mo 4 FeGa 17.25–x Ge x (x ∼ 2.1(4), based on determination of Ge content), a complex gallide featuring a variety of point substitution phenomena. Its crystal structure is derived from the Ti 2 Ni type, in which a diamond network of face-sharing octahedra is interpenetrated by a second diamond network of vertex-sharing stella quadrangula. However, while in the ideal Ti 2 Ni type these two frameworks run uninterrupted through the crystal, Mo 4 FeGa 17.25–x Ge x shows three variations. First, the inner tetrahedron of every other stella quadrangula is replaced with a main group atom, creating tetrahedra reminiscent of the Zintl phase NaTl. Next, a selection of Ga 6 octahedra are filled with Fe atoms, in a manner analogous to the stuffed AuCu 3 -type phases. Finally, the refined crystal structure shows that in each unit cell a single Ga2 atom in the octahedral network is substituted with a dumbbell of Ga/Ge atoms. Electronic structure calculations on ordered models of Mo 4 FeGa 17.25–x Ge x reveal a narrow band near the Fermi energy, which is explained in terms of the 18-n and octet bonding schemes using reversed approximation Molecular Orbital analysis. A DFT-chemical pressure analysis connects the tetrahedron/atom and atom/dumbbell substitutions to the relief of atomic packing tensions and highlights soft atomic motions within the octahedral framework and driving forces for atom/dumbbell substitution. The combination of soft vibrational modes, disorder, and a narrow band gap could make this phase of interest for potential thermoelectric properties.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Trace Iron and Chromium Incorporation During Gibbsite Crystallization and Effects on Mineral Dissolution

Incorporation of pollutants, e.g., heavy metals, or critical elements, e.g., lithium, as impurities in mineral phases can significantly affect their mobility or sequestration in the environment. Even when present at low concentrations, impurities can alter the solubility and reactivity of the host mineral. Here, in this study, we investigate the incorporation of trace amounts of iron (Fe 3+ ) and chromium (Cr 3+ ) during the crystal growth of the aluminum (Al 3+ ) hydroxide, gibbsite, a major component of bauxite ores, an important soil mineral, and a dominant mineral phase in stored radioactive wastes. Using a comprehensive suite of analytical techniques, we show that both Cr 3+ and Fe 3+ can be incorporated into the gibbsite lattice during coprecipitation by replacing Al 3+ in octahedral sites. These small amounts are consistent with limited to no structural isomorphism shared between Al 3+ and Cr 3+ /Fe 3+ hydroxide precipitates, nor room temperature miscibility of their isostructural M 2 O 3 oxide forms, in contrast with oxyhydroxide forms where Al 3+ and Fe 3+ share similar structural topologies. Despite the limited uptake of Cr 3+ /Fe 3+ , we show that these impurities have significant implications for gibbsite dissolution behavior. The limited uptake of Cr 3+ /Fe 3+ (e.g. 0.43% Cr 3+ and 0.4% Fe 3+ ), we show that these impurities have significant implications for gibbsite dissolution behavior and subsequent reactivity in complex environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparability of Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry Analysis of Dissolved Organic Matter across Laboratories

Non-targeted liquid chromatography tandem highresolution mass spectrometry (LC−MS/MS) is increasingly applied for the structure-resolved chemical analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM). With new developments in MS instrumentation and analysis software, the approach has gained substantial momentum over the past decade. However, achieving high-quality analytical data that is reproducible and comparable across laboratories can be a bottleneck in non-targeted metabolomics and organic matter chemical analysis, especially for data reuse in repository-scale analyses. Understanding the capabilities as well as challenges of comparing LC−MS/MS data from different laboratories is necessary for inferring global trends from public data sets. To illuminate instrumentation factors that drive differences and variability, we used a standardized data analysis pipeline, including classical (CMN) and featurebased molecular networking (FBMN), to analyze data from a ring trial by 24 laboratories on identical sample sets of algal and DOM extracts that were mixed in predefined concentrations and spiked with standards. Our results showed that data sets from similar mass spectrometer types with unified instrument parameters were qualitatively comparable, resolving the same general trends and shared mass spectral features. Interlaboratory comparability was best for high-intensity features, while low-intensity features showed greater detection variability. Our analysis also highlights challenges when comparing data from instruments with different acquisition rates or operating with less standardized methods. Lastly, we provide recommendations for data integration, public data sharing, standardization, and best practices for standardized LC−MS/MS data acquisition, which will be critical for long-term time series and intercomparability of DOM chemical analyses.

DOM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ternary Complexes of BiI 3 /CuI and SbI 3 /CuI with Tetrahydrothiophene

Reactions of BiI 3 /CuI mixtures with tetrahydrothiophene (THT) in toluene produce 2-D sheet networks BiCu 3 I 6 (THT) n (n = 2, 3, or 4), depending on reaction conditions. All three structures are based on BiI 6 octahedra, which share pairs of (μ 2 -I) 2 with Cu 3 (THT) n units. BiCu 3 I 6 (THT) 2 features Cu 2 (μ 2 -I) 2 rhombs with close Cu···Cu interactions and is accompanied by formation of the very complex HBi 3 Cu 12 I 22 (THT) 8 . Reactions of SbI 3 /CuI with THT in toluene produced a SbCu 3 I 6 (THT) 2 network shows Cu 3 (μ 2 -THT) 2 units, like its Bi congener, but Cu 6 (μ 2 -I) 6 barrels rather than rhombs. Isolated SbI 3 units are stacked above the Cu 6 I 6 barrels. A molecular compound, Sb 3 Cu 3 I 12 (THT) 6 consists of a face-sharing Sb 3 I 12 stack, in which the Cu-THT units are bonded in asymmetric fashion about the central SbI 6 . Metal-halide bonds were investigated via QTAIM and NLMO analyses, demonstrating that these bonds are largely ionic and occur between the Bi/Sb and I p orbitals. Hirshfeld analysis shows significant H···H and H···I interactions. Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) reveals band edges for the Bi species of 1.71–1.82 eV, while those for the neutral Sb complexes are in the range of 1.94–2.06 eV. Mapping of the electronic structure via density of state calculations indicates population of antibonding Bi/Sb–I orbitals in the excited state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

La 3 CuTe 5 : A Narrow-Gap Semiconductor with Indirect Gap and Dual-Regime Thermally Activated Transport

Metal-chalcogenide systems remain a long-standing research topic because of their structural diversity and potential to host emergent phenomena. Here, we report a new compound, La 3 CuTe 5 , synthesized from the halide-flux method. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies indicate the structure to be unique among reported ones. Here, the compound crystallizes in a novel structure type adopting the orthorhombic space group Pnma and a unit cell of a = 24.3947(14) Å, b = 4.4232(2) Å, and c = 10.2142(5) Å. The tetrahedral [CuTe 4 ] building blocks form chains along [010] by corner sharing and link [LaTe 7 ] and [LaTe 8 ] polyhedra via edge sharing, resulting in a three-dimensional bulk structure. Thermal analysis results indicate that the material remains stable with a temperature up to 950 °C and decomposable at 1400 °C. First-principles calculations reveal an indirect electronic band gap and flat valence bands dominated by Te p and Cu d states. Optical absorption measurements yield a band gap of ∼0.65 eV, consistent with semiconducting behavior observed in transport measurements. Fittings to the temperature-dependent resistivity reveal two thermally activated regimes associated with Arrhenius-type conduction and three-dimensional variable range hopping, respectively.

Chalcogenides↗
DOE OSTI2025

MARLOWE: An Untargeted Proteomics, Statistical Approach to Taxonomic Classification for Forensics

General proteomics research for fundamental science typically addresses laboratory- or patient-derived samples of known origin and composition. However, in a few research areas, such as environmental proteomics, clinical identification of infectious organisms, archeology, art/cultural history, and forensics, attributing the origin of a protein-containing sample to the organisms that produced it is a central focus. A small number of groups have approached this problem and developed software tools for taxonomic characterization and/or identification using bottom-up proteomics. Most such tools identify peptides via database search, and many rely on organism-specific peptides as markers. Our group recently introduced MARLOWE, a software tool for taxonomic characterization of unknown samples based on de novo peptide identification and signal-erosion-resistant strong peptides, which are shared peptides distributed in a taxonomy-dependent manner. In the current work, we further characterize the utility of MARLOWE using publicly available proteomics data from forensically-relevant samples. MARLOWE characterizes samples based on their protein profile, and returns ranked organism lists of potential contributors and taxonomic scores based on shared strong peptides between organisms. Overall, the correct characterization rate ranges between 44 and 100%, depending on the sample type and data acquisition parameters (with lower numbers associated with lower-quality data sets). MARLOWE demonstrates successful characterization of true contributors and close relatives, and provides sufficient specificity to distinguish certain microbial species. MARLOWE demonstrates its ability to provide insight into potential taxonomic sources for a wide range of sample types without prior assumptions about sample contents. As a result, this approach can find utility in forensic science and also broadly in bioanalytical applications that utilize proteomics approaches for taxonomic characterization.

Bacteria↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combined Machine Learning and Molecular Dynamics Reveal Two States of Hydration of a Single Functional Group of Cationic Polymeric Brushes

The state of hydration of a macromolecular system regulates a plethora of different properties of such a system. In this article, we develop a novel machine learning (ML) approach, based on the unsupervised clustering algorithm, for probing the hydration behavior of the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + functional group of the PMETAC [Poly(2-(methacryloyloxy)ethyl trimethylammonium chloride] polyelectrolyte (PE) brush system. The PE brushes and the brush-supported water molecules and counterions (chloride ions) are first described using all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The simulation data is subsequently used in our ML framework to identify that (1) the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + functional groups of the PMETAC brushes have two distinct hydration states with one state (state 1) being characterized by less structured water molecules and the other state (state 2) being characterized by more structured water molecules and (2) an enhancement in the brush grafting density leads to the progressive dissapparenace of state 2. An increase in the grafting density increases the number of chloride counterions in a given volume around the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + functional group and increases the number of shared water molecules between the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + and Cl - . The chloride counterions are associated with a hydration layer with much less structured water molecules. Therefore, with an increase in the grafting density, an increase in the percentage of shared water molecules leads to the prevalence of the hydration state [of the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + moiety] with less structured water molecules. Finally, we explain how the present findings are commensurate with two key previous related results, namely a significantly large chloride ion mobility inside the PMETAC brush layer and the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + -Cl - average distance remaining independent of the PMETAC brush grafting density. Furthermore, we anticipate that the combined ML-MD-simulation approach proposed in this study can be adapted to probe other soft matter systems to reveal new insights of the underlying mechanisms of emergent phenomenon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Borg extrachromosomal elements of methane-oxidizing archaea have conserved and expressed genetic repertoires

Borgs are huge extrachromosomal elements (ECE) of anaerobic methane-consuming “Candidatus Methanoperedens” archaea. Here, we used nanopore sequencing to validate published complete genomes curated from short reads and to reconstruct new genomes. 13 complete and four near-complete linear genomes share 40 genes that define a largely syntenous genome backbone. We use these conserved genes to identify new Borgs from peatland soil and to delineate Borg phylogeny, revealing two major clades. Remarkably, Borg genes encoding nanowire-like electron-transferring cytochromes and cell surface proteins are more highly expressed than those of host Methanoperedens, indicating that Borgs augment the Methanoperedens activity in situ. We reconstructed the first complete 4.00 Mbp genome for a Methanoperedens that is inferred to be a Borg host and predicted its methylation motifs, which differ from pervasive TC and CC methylation motifs of the Borgs. Thus, methylation may enable Methanoperedens to distinguish their genomes from those of Borgs. Very high Borg to Methanoperedens ratios and structural predictions suggest that Borgs may be capable of encapsulation. The findings clearly define Borgs as a distinct class of ECE with shared genomic signatures, establish their diversification from a common ancestor with genetic inheritance, and raise the possibility of periodic existence outside of host cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emissions leakage and economic losses may undermine deforestation-linked oil crop import restrictions

Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities are being considered strategies to reduce global deforestation and emissions. However, limited market share of importers imposing such restrictions and the potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they could result in negative economic implications for producers and consumers. We quantify future emissions and economic implications of oil palm and soybean import restrictions. Current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact due to the EU’s otherwise small and diminishing share of global palm and soy demand. If extended beyond the EU, such import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative LUC emissions by 2050 in key oil crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $\$$4.1-$\$$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗