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At least 181 records · Page 10

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Use of an Inertia Sphere to Damp the Angular Motions of Spinning Space Vehicles

A theoretical study was made of a device which might be used to damp the angular motions of spin-stabilized space vehicles with constant moments of inertia. the device was assumed to consist of a rate gyro, a servo control, and a rotor mounted in a single gimbal. The investigation was conducted by considering the general equations of motion of the vehicle-damper system and noting that simplification would result if the damper had a spherical inertia distribution. Such a distribution was assumed thereafter, and a control command was defined so that the gimbal angle would be proportional to the angular velocity of the vehicle about the gimbal axis. The resulting equations were linearized, and the Routh-Hurwitz criterion was applied to determine the conditions for stability. The study included two numerical examples showing possible application of inertia-sphere rate dampers. The general conditions for stability were found to be feasible for practical applications. A simplified stability criterion covers a large class of practical problems.

SPHERE

Nixie tube display unit employs time-shared logic

Cathodes of display tubes wired in parallel achieve input switching simplification of a Nixie tube display system. Use of time- shared logic energizes the appropriate anode and inhibits all unnecessary cathodes.

Gray, J.

Space navigation.

Deep space navigation and guidance technology, emphasizing simplification of onboard navigation procedures

NAVIGATION AND GUIDANCE

Design techniques - Stochastic controllers

Analytic techniques aid in the design of nearly optimal linear time-varying sampled-data stochastic controllers. The techniques also aid in the simplification and automation of program designing for control computers.

Widnall, W. S.

Space navigation.

Deep space navigation and guidance technology, emphasizing simplification of onboard navigation procedures

Mcdonald, W. T.

Thermodynamics of the internal combustion engine

The ubiquitous automobile has played both the role of hero and villain during the course of its history. At the present time it is being cast as the villain with increasing frequency because it has been indicted as a major source of air pollution. It is just this characterization that is responsible for our renewed interest in the automobile. When we speak of the automobile as a source of air pollution, we really mean the heart of the automobile, the internal combustion engine. The prototype of the modern internal combustion engine was first successfully operated by Nicholas August Otto in 1876. In spite of its long history, the internal combustion engine is still poorly understood in terms of the details of the physical processes that take place during its operations. The internal combustion engine operates on what is known as the Otto cycle, and Otto cycle calculations have been with us for many years. The emphasis in earlier calculations was usually on the performance rather than on the pollution aspects. Performance characteristics can often be estimated reasonably accurately even with a considerable degree of simplification. We are interested in the pollution aspects of the internal combustion engine, and therefore the calculations must be performed with more care. Our extensive experience with equilibrium calculations places us in a position to carry out such careful calculations. We have just recently begun such an analysis, and its objective is the prediction of exhaust gas properties. I will describe our progress by first reviewing the Otto cycle, and then I will illustrate the effect of various assumptions on the calculated results.

Frank J. Zeleznik

Thermal elastic deformations of the planet Mercury

The variation in solar heating due to the resonance rotation of Mercury produces periodic elastic deformations on the surface of the planet. The thermal stress and strain fields under Mercury's surface are calculated after certain simplifications. It is shown that deformations penetrate to a greater depth than the variation of solar heating, and that the thermal strain on the surface of the planet pulsates with an amplitude of 0.004 and a period of 176 days.

Liu, H.