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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Short-term impacts of 2017 western North American wildfires on meteorology, the atmosphere’s energy budget, and premature mortality

Abstract Western North American fires have been increasing in magnitude and severity over the last few decades. The complex coupling of fires with the atmospheric energy budget and meteorology creates short-term feedbacks on regional weather altering the amount of pollution to which Americans are exposed. Using a combination of model simulations and observations, this study shows that the severe fires in the summer of 2017 increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations leading to a cooling of the air at the surface, reductions in sensible heat fluxes, and a lowering of the planetary boundary layer height over land. This combination of lower-boundary layer height and increased aerosol pollution from the fires reduces air quality. We estimate that from start of August to end of October 2017, ∼400 premature deaths occurred within the western US as a result of short-term exposure to elevated PM 2.5 from fire smoke. As North America confronts a warming climate with more fires the short-term climate and pollution impacts of increased fire activity should be assessed within policy aimed to minimize impacts of climate change on society.

Bernstein, Diana N. (ORCID:0000000308279336)↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Integrated Approach to Predicting Ash Deposition and Heat Transfer in Coal-Fired Boilers

The overall goal of this project is to develop via measurements and simulations an advanced online technology to predict, monitor and manage fireside ash deposition in a coal-fired boiler allowing for more efficient operations under a range of load conditions and fuel property variability. With this in place fuel sorting and blending can be done upstream and operations can be optimized to compensate for load and fuel properties. In support of this objective, three experimental campaigns were undertaken during the course of the project to measure ash deposition rates within the boiler at different fuel flow rates and its ash composition variability. Simulations of the experimental conditions representing actual geometry, operational scenarios in terms of air flow rates, coal flow rates as well as coal compositions, heating values, and particle size distributions were also carried out. Deposition rates were predicted using a unique particle kinetic energy and viscosity based ash deposition methodology whose validity was ascertained by comparing against deposition rate measurements for widely varying operating conditions and ash compositions in a lab-scale furnace. With a unique end-to-end combustion modeling methodology established and different simulation scenarios carried out, the results from our computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations in conjunction with the plant data summarized in this report were used to refine Microbeam Technology Incorporated’s MTI CSPI-CT Tool to predict and monitor fire-side ash deposition under a range of load conditions and fuel property variability in real time.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating Atomic Dark Matter in Milky Way Analogs

Dark sector theories naturally lead to multicomponent scenarios for dark matter where a subcomponent can dissipate energy through self-interactions, allowing it to efficiently cool inside galaxies. We present the first cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way analogs where the majority of dark matter is collisionless cold dark matter (CDM) but a subcomponent (6%) is strongly dissipative minimal atomic dark matter (ADM). The simulations, implemented in GIZMO and utilizing FIRE-2 galaxy formation physics to model the standard baryonic sector, demonstrate that the addition of even a small fraction of dissipative dark matter can significantly impact galactic evolution despite being consistent with current cosmological constraints. We show that ADM gas with roughly standard model–like masses and couplings can cool to form a rotating “dark disk” with angular momentum closely aligned with the visible stellar disk. The morphology of the disk depends sensitively on the parameters of the ADM model, which affect the cooling rates in the dark sector. The majority of the ADM gas gravitationally collapses into dark “clumps” (regions of black hole or mirror star formation), which form a prominent bulge and a rotating thick disk in the central galaxy. These clumps form early and quickly sink to the inner ∼kiloparsec of the galaxy, affecting the galaxy’s star formation history and present-day baryonic and CDM distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulations of Laser Experiments to Study the Origin of Cosmic Magnetic Fields

Magnetic fields are ubiquitous in the universe; however, their origin is not fully understood. Cosmologists and astrophysicists have proposed a variety of ways in which small seed magnetic fields could be created. It is widely thought that the much larger values of the cosmic magnetic fields that we observe are a result of the amplification of these seed fields by the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. Such a mechanism had not yet been demonstrated in a controlled laboratory environment. We conceived experiments designed to demonstrate and study the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism in the laboratory. These experiments characterize the distribution of turbulent energy among the velocity, magnetic field, and density fluctuations, providing a comprehensive picture of the energy cascade in a magnetized, turbulent plasma. The experiments build on the pathfinder experiments we have conducted on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and the OMEGA laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics at Rochester. They utilize the high-intensity lasers at the Omega Laser Facility, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL and the Laser Megajoule (LMJ) Facility in France – the largest laser facilities in the world. The goal of this project was to design and model the highly demanding experiments through simulation campaigns using FLASH, a highly capable radiation-MHD code we have developed, and large-scale 3D simulations on the Mira supercomputer at ANL. The simulations were vital to ensuring the experiments achieve the strong turbulence and large magnetic Reynolds numbers required for the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism to operate. The simulations were also critical to determining when to fire the diagnostics, since the experiments last tens of nanoseconds but the signals of the strongly amplified magnetic fields last only a few nanoseconds. Finally, high-fidelity, validated FLASH simulations were crucial to interpreting the results of the experiments. By combining theory, experiments, and simulations, we were able to succeed in demonstrating and characterizing the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. The effort leveraged (1) the emergence of the Flash Center for Computational Science as a leader in numerical modeling of academic High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) experiments; (2) the FLASH code, which has been developed by the Flash Center and is a leadership-class, multi- physics, publicly available community code that has been applied successfully in many laser-driven experiments; (3) the expertise acquired through pathfinder experiments we performed on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and on the Omega laser facility; (4) the experience we have gained in designing and interpreting these experiments using validated simulations done with FLASH; and (5) the close collaborations we have established with outstanding experimental groups in the US and abroad. The broader impacts of the project are two-fold: (1) the work furthered the transformation of the academic community’s ability to design and analyze HEDP experiments at large laser facilities that is happening through the availability of FLASH and its widespread adoption by the academic community – a community that previously had had limited access to open and validated hydro/MHD simulation tools for HEDP experiments; and (2) the work trained young scientists to design and interpret HEDP experiments using validated simulations – a critical national need.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physical Review Journal Club: Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

This is an invited presentation for APS's monthly Journal Club where important papers that have recently been accepted for publication are highlighted in a seminar-like setting. The presentation will be "live" (May 1, 2025) and streamed across the world (including an archived recording).

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

North American boreal forests are a large carbon source due to wildfires from 1986 to 2016

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year -1 , was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year -1 ) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to airborne LiDAR data: A case study on mapping forest degradation associated with fragmentation and fire in the Amazon region

1. LiDAR data are being increasingly used to provide a detailed characterization of the vertical profile of forests. This characterization enables the generation of new insights on the influence of environmental drivers and anthropogenic disturbances on forest structure as well as on how forest structure influences important ecosystem functions and services. Unfortunately, extracting information from LiDAR data in a way that enables the spatial visualization of forest structure, as well as its temporal changes, is challenging due to the high dimensionality of these data. 2. In this study, we show how the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to LiDAR data (LidarLDA) can be used to identify forest structural types and how the relative abundance of these forest types changes throughout the landscape. The code to fit this model is made available through the open-source r package LidarLDA in github. We illustrate the use of LidarLDA both with simulated data and data from a large-scale fire experiment in the Brazilian Amazon region. 3. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that LidarLDA accurately identifies the number of forest types as well as their spatial distribution and absorptance probabilities. For the empirical data, we found that LidarLDA detects both landscape-level patterns in forest structure as well as the strong interacting effect of fire and forest fragmentation on forest structure based on the experimental fire plots. More specifically, LidarLDA reveals that proximity to forest edge exacerbates the impact of fires, and that burned forests remain structurally different from unburned areas for at least 7 years, even when burned only once. Importantly, LidarLDA generates insights on the 3D structure of forest that cannot be obtained using more standard approaches that just focus on top-of-the-canopy information (e.g. canopy height models based on LiDAR data). 4. By enabling the mapping of forest structure and its temporal changes, we believe that LidarLDA will be of broad utility to the ecological research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States

Abstract Predicting current and future wildfire frequency and size is central to wildfire control and management. Multiple fire danger indices (FDIs) that incorporate weather and fuel conditions have been developed and utilized to support wildfire predictions and risk assessment. However, the scale‐dependent performance of individual FDIs remains poorly understood, which leads to large uncertainty in the estimated fire sizes under climate change. Here, we calculate four commonly used FDIs over the conterminous United States using high‐resolution (4 km) climate and fuel data sets for the 1984–2019 period. The relationships of these four FDIs to the observed wildfire sizes show that higher values of FDIs correlate to larger total fire sizes; this correlation is more robust at larger spatial scales. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the daily minimum relative humidity and precipitation are the most important drivers of the annual mean fire danger. In the instances of extreme fire danger, wind speed becomes a critical factor and should be considered in the calculation of the FDI. To assess the impact of climate change on future fire size, we calculate the present‐day and end‐of‐century FDIs using the 12 km regional climate model simulations. The four FDIs generally predict consistent changes in future fire potential, suggesting an overall higher fire potential in conjunction with a prolonged wildfire season in future climate. Regionally, the four FDIs also reveal similar seasonal patterns as the enhancement arises mostly in spring and summer over the southwest US while in summer and fall over the northern and eastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Industry Level Feasibility of LiDAR Data into Fire Modeling Using Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D)

Many evaluation, assessment, and modeling tasks at nuclear power plants require spatial information this often requires physical visits to locations within the facility because the 2D or 3D schematics and current models do not contain enough detail or do not capture as-built and real-world conditions. These visits require extensive manual labor for not only the requesting party, but support groups such as security. LIDAR mapping is trying to solve that problem by providing very detailed 3D models for low costs. However, the use of these models can be very limited because either component reference information is missing and too costly to add, or there is no way to extract specific spatial data needed for other tools. This report presents Idaho National Lab's work with Environmental Intellect (Ei) covering two main efforts. First, to reduce the effort of "tagging" data in large 3D models. By using both existing plant database information, and artificial intelligence (AI) to find and read equipment labels. This research explores the ability of to provide a simple way for the user to tag items and verify plant data, capturing both the speed of AI and human verification. The second part of the work is the development of an interface for importing pieces needed for Modeling & Simulation. Analysis work such as that for fire, flood, or physical security all require spatial or 3D models in various levels of detail. This interface will allow for the retrieval of item location or boundaries, enabling the auto generation of models for varying tools. The application program interface (API) of the fire risk investigation in 3D (FRI3D) was used to test feasibility of exporting the LiDAR tagged spatial information. Outcomes from this work provide preliminary data to determine if the tools and methods could provide substantial industry benefit if fully matured.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation Assessment of Turbulent Reacting Flow Model Using The Area-Validation Metric on Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Results

Accident analysis and ensuring power plant safety are pivotal in the nuclear energy sector. Significant strides have been achieved over the past few decades regarding fire protection and safety, primarily centered on design and regulatory compliance. Yet, after the Fukushima accident a decade ago, the imperative to enhance measures against fire, internal flooding, and power loss has intensified. Hence, a comprehensive, multilayered protection strategy against severe accidents is needed. Consequently, gaining a deeper insight into pool fires and their behavior through extensive validated data can greatly aid in improving these measures using advanced validation techniques. A model validation study was performed at Sandia National Laboratories in which a 30-cm diameter methanol pool fire was modeled using the SIERRA/Fuego turbulent reacting flow code. This validation study used a standard validation experiment to compare model results against, and conclusions have been published. The fire was modeled with a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence model with subgrid turbulent kinetic energy closure. Combustion was modeled using a strained laminar flamelet library approach. Radiative heat transfer was accounted for with a model utilizing the gray-gas approximation. In the present study, additional validation analysis is performed using the area validation metric (AVM). These activities are done on multiple datasets involving different variables and temporal/spatial ranges and intervals. In conclusion, the results provide insight into the use of the area validation metric on such temporally varying datasets and the importance of physics-aware use of the metric for proper analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil carbon storage capacity of drylands under altered fire regimes

The determinants of fire-driven changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) across broad environmental gradients remains unclear, especially in global drylands. Here we combined datasets and field sampling of fire-manipulation experiments to evaluate where and why fire changes SOC and compared our statistical model to simulations from ecosystem models. Drier ecosystems experienced larger relative changes in SOC than humid ecosystems—in some cases exceeding losses from plant biomass pools—primarily explained by high fire-driven declines in tree biomass inputs in dry ecosystems. Many ecosystem models underestimated the SOC changes in drier ecosystems. Upscaling our statistical model predicted that soils in savannah–grassland regions may have gained 0.64 PgC due to net-declines in burned area over the past approximately two decades. Consequently, ongoing declines in fire frequencies have probably created an extensive carbon sink in the soils of global drylands that may have been underestimated by ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A subcellular biochemical model for T6SS dynamics reveals winning competitive strategies

Abstract The type VI secretion system (T6SS) is a broadly distributed interbacterial weapon that can be used to eliminate competing bacterial populations. Although unarmed target populations are typically used to study T6SS function in vitro, bacteria most likely encounter other T6SS-armed competitors in nature. However, the connection between subcellular details of the T6SS and the outcomes of such mutually lethal battles is not well understood. Here, we incorporate biological data derived from natural competitors of Vibrio fischeri light organ symbionts to build a biochemical model for T6SS at the single-cell level, which we then integrate into an agent-based model (ABM). Using the ABM, we isolate and experiment with strain-specific physiological differences between competitors in ways not possible with biological samples to identify winning strategies for T6SS-armed populations. Through in vitro experiments, we discover that strain-specific differences exist in T6SS activation speed. ABM simulations corroborate that faster activation is dominant in determining survival during competition. Once competitors are fully activated, the energy required for T6SS creates a tipping point where increased weapon building and firing becomes too costly to be advantageous. Through ABM simulations, we identify the threshold where this transition occurs in the T6SS parameter space. We also find that competitive outcomes depend on the geometry of the battlefield: unarmed target cells survive at the edges of a range expansion where unlimited territory can be claimed. Alternatively, competitions within a confined space, much like the light organ crypts where natural V. fischeri compete, result in the rapid elimination of the unarmed population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature-Dependence of Corrosion of Ni-Based Superalloys in Hot CO 2 -Rich Gases Containing SO 2 Impurities

Future power plants will require Ni-based superalloys resistant to high-temperature corrosion in CO 2 -rich environments containing impurities. In this work, several commercially available Ni-based alloys (617, 230, 625, 263, 740H) were exposed at 600°C, 650°C, 750°C and 1 atm to 95% CO 2 , 4% H 2 O, 1% O 2 without/with 0.1% SO 2 to simulate compositions expected in a direct-fired supercritical CO 2 power cycle. The results indicate no effect of SO 2 at 750°C, a small negative effect at 650°C, and a large negative effect at 600°C. Alloys exposed at the higher temperatures (650–750°C) formed thin Cr-rich oxide scales, whereas the lowest temperature (600°C) resulted in thicker scales consisting of non-protective oxides and sulfates. Thermodynamic analysis indicates this increased corrosion is associated with a transition in the stable compounds in contact with the gas. Understanding the factors that affect this transition will aid in the selection or design of alloys for future CO 2 -based power systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive Associated with Manuscript "Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon"

This data package supports the publication “Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon” by Li et al. (2026). The package contains processed model inputs, configuration files, restart files, simulation outputs, scripts, and visualization products used to evaluate post-fire dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Naches River Watershed, Washington, USA, following the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire. The modeling workflow couples ELM-BGC, the biogeochemistry-enabled Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model; ATS, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator for integrated surface-subsurface hydrology; and PFLOTRAN, a reactive transport model for multicomponent aqueous geochemistry. Together, these models simulate how wildfire-induced changes in vegetation, litter, coarse woody debris, and soil organic matter influence DOC production, transport, and reaction from burned hillslopes to stream networks. The archive includes preprocessed meteorological, geospatial, hydrologic, and biogeochemical forcing data; ELM-BGC-derived DOC source terms; ATS mesh files; PFLOTRAN reactive-transport inputs; model configuration files; spin-up and transient restart files; watershed-scale diagnostic outputs; stream concentration time series; and figures or visualization files used to inspect and reproduce key results. File types include Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files for gridded forcing and model-coupling data, model input and configuration files for ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN, restart and simulation-output files generated by the modeling workflow, tabular or time-series diagnostic outputs, scripts for post-processing and figure generation, and image or visualization products associated with the manuscript. Use of the package depends on the intended task. Re-running the simulations requires the relevant modeling software, including ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN as ATS's geochemical engine. Inspecting outputs and reproducing figures requires Python with scientific plotting libraries such as Matplotlib, and three-dimensional model outputs may be viewed with ParaView. Geographic information system files or maps may be inspected with ArcGIS Pro or comparable GIS software. The data package is intended to enable traceability, reuse, and partial reproduction of the coupled land-to-watershed hydro-biogeochemical modeling workflow used to test how wildfire disturbance affects terrestrial carbon pools and downstream DOC dynamics.

ATS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗