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At least 181 records · Page 10

Development of Land‐River Two‐Way Hydrologic Coupling for Floodplain Inundation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract Floodplain inundation links river and land systems through significant water, sediment, and nutrient exchanges. However, these two‐way interactions between land and river are currently missing in most Earth System Models. In this study, we introduced the two‐way hydrological coupling between the land component, E3SM Land Model, and the river component, Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport, in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to study the impacts of floodplain inundation on land and river processes. We calibrated the river channel geometry and developed a new data‐driven inundation scheme to improve the simulation of inundation dynamics in E3SM. The new inundation scheme captures 96% of the spatial variation of inundation area in a satellite inundation product at global scale, in contrast with 7% when the default inundation scheme of E3SM was used. Global simulations including the new inundation scheme performed at resolution with and without land‐river two‐way coupling was used to quantify the impact of coupling. Comparisons show that two‐way coupling modifies the water and energy cycle in 20% of the global land cells. Specifically, riverine inundation is reduced by two‐way coupling, but inland inundation is intensified. Wetter periods are more impacted by the two‐way coupling at the global scale, while regions with different climates exhibit different sensitivities. The two‐way exchange of water between the land and river components of E3SM provides the foundation for enabling two‐way coupling of land‐river sediment and biogeochemical fluxes. These capabilities will be used to improve understanding of the interactions between water and biogeochemical cycles and their response to human perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased Occurrence of Large–Scale Windthrows Across the Amazon Basin

Convective storms with strong downdrafts create windthrows: snapped and uprooted trees that locally alter the structure, composition, and carbon balance of forests. Comparing Landsat imagery from subsequent years, we documented temporal and spatial variation in the occurrence of large (≥30 ha) windthrows across the Amazon basin from 1985 to 2020. Over 33 individual years, we detected 3179 large windthrows. Windthrow density was greatest in the central and western Amazon regions, with ~33% of all events occurring in ~3% of the monitored area. Return intervals for large windthrows in the same location of these “hotspot” regions are centuries to millennia, while over the rest of the Amazon they are >10,000 years. Our data demonstrate a nearly 4–fold increase in windthrow number and affected area between 1985 (78 windthrows and 6,900 ha) and 2020 (264 events and 32,170 ha), with more events of >500 ha size since 1990. Such extremely large events (>500 ha up to 2,543 ha) are responsible for interannual variation in the overall median (84 ± 5.2 ha; ±95% CI) and mean (147 ± 13 ha) windthrow area, but we did not find significant temporal trends in the size distribution of windthrows with time. Our results document increased damage from convective storms over the past 40 years in the Amazon, filling a gap in temporal records for tropical regions. Our publicly accessible large windthrow database provides a valuable tool for exploring dynamic conditions leading to damaging storms and their ecological impact on Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relating Hydro–Mechanical and Elastodynamic Properties of Dynamically Stressed Tensile–Fractured Rock in Relation to Applied Normal Stress, Fracture Aperture, and Contact Area

We exploit nonlinear elastodynamic properties of fractured rock to probe the micro-scale mechanics of fractures and understand the relation between fluid transport and fracture aperture under dynamic stressing. Experiments were conducted on rough, tensile-fractured Westerly granite subject to triaxial stresses. We measure fracture permeability for steady-state fluid flow with deionized water. Pore pressure oscillations are applied at amplitudes ranging from 0.2 to 1 MPa at 1 Hz frequency. During dynamic stressing we transmit ultrasonic signals through the fracture using an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) to monitor evolution of interface properties. We examine the influence of fracture aperture and contact area by conducting measurements at effective normal stresses of 10–20 MPa. Additionally, the evolution of contact area with stress is characterized using pressure sensitive film. These experiments are conducted separately with the same fracture and map contact area at stresses from 9 to 21 MPa. The measurements are a proxy for “true” contact area for the fracture surface and we relate them to elastic properties using the calculated PZT sensor footprints via numerical modeling of Fresnel zones. We compare the elastodynamic response of the fracture using the stress-induced changes in ultrasonic wave velocities for transmitter-receiver pairs to image spatial variations in contact properties. We show that nonlinear elasticity and permeability enhancement decrease with increasing normal stress. Additionally, post-oscillation wave velocity and permeability exhibit quick recoveries toward pre-oscillation values. Estimates of fracture contact area (global and local) demonstrate that the elastodynamic and permeability responses are dominated by fracture topology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hillslope-Channel Transitions and the Role of Water Tracks in a Changing Permafrost Landscape

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change, and the effect on hydrologic processes and resulting geomorphic changes to hillslopes and channels is unclear because we lack quantitative models and theory for rapid changes resulting from thawing permafrost. Here, the presence of permafrost modulates water flow and the stability of soil-mantled slopes, implying that there should be a signature of permafrost processes, including warming-driven disturbance, in channel network extent. To inform understanding of hillslope-channel dynamics under changing climates, we examined soil-mantled hillslopes within a ~300 km 2 area of the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, where discontinuous permafrost is particularly susceptible to thaw and rapid landscape change. In this study, we pair high-resolution topographic and satellite data to multi-annual observations of InSAR-derived surface displacement over a 5-year period to quantify spatial variations in topographic change across an upland landscape. We find that neither the basin slope nor the presence of knickzones controls the magnitude of recent surface displacements within the study basin, as may be expected under conceptual models of temperate hillslope evolution. Rather, the highest displacement magnitudes tended to occur at the broad hillslope-channel transition zone. In this study area, this zone is occupied by water tracks, which are zero-order ecogeomorphic features that concentrate surface and subsurface flow paths. Our results suggest that water tracks, which appear to occupy hillslope positions between saturation and incision thresholds, are vulnerable to warming-induced subsidence and incision. We hypothesize that gullying within water tracks will outpace infilling by hillslope processes, resulting in the growth of the channel network under future warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Incorporating the Acclimation of Photosynthesis and Leaf Respiration in the Noah‐MP Land Surface Model: Model Development and Evaluation

Abstract Realistic simulation of leaf photosynthetic and respiratory processes is needed for accurate prediction of the global carbon cycle. These two processes systematically acclimate to long‐term environmental changes by adjusting photosynthetic and respiratory traits (e.g., the maximum photosynthetic capacity at 25°C ( V cmax,25 ) and the leaf respiration rate at 25°C ( R 25 )) following increasingly well‐understood principles. While some land surface models (LSMs) now account for thermal acclimation, they do so by assigning empirical parameterizations for individual plant functional types (PFTs). Here, we have implemented an Eco‐Evolutionary Optimality (EEO)‐based scheme to represent the universal acclimation of photosynthesis and leaf respiration to multiple environmental effects, and that therefore requires no PFT‐specific parameterizations, in a standard version of the widely used LSM, Noah MP. We evaluated model performance with plant trait data from a 5‐year experiment and extensive global field measurements, and carbon flux measurements from FLUXNET2015. We show that observed R 25 and V cmax,25 vary substantially both temporally and spatially within the same PFT ( C.V. >20%). Our EEO‐based scheme captures 62% of the temporal and 70% of the spatial variations in V cmax,25 (73% and 54% of the variations in R 25 ). The standard scheme underestimates gross primary production by 10% versus 2% for the EEO‐based scheme and generates a larger spread in r (correlation coefficient) across flux sites (0.79 ± 0.16 vs. 0.84 ± 0.1, mean ± S.D.). The standard scheme greatly overestimates canopy respiration (bias: ∼200% vs. 8% for the EEO scheme), resulting in less CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Our approach thus simulates climate‐carbon coupling more realistically, with fewer parameters.

Ren, Yanghang [Department of Earth System Science ↗

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗

The Efficiency of Water Vapor on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiation

Earth's climate sensitivity is greatly affected by the compensation between temperature feedback and water vapor (WV) feedback. Using abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments, we show that the global-mean WV feedback is nearly a linear function of the temperature feedback, the slope of which is explained by the longwave radiative efficiency of WV (ϵ). Although ϵ remains constant across models in the global mean, it exhibits substantial spatial variations and is particularly weak in Antarctica, where near-surface inversions decouple the surface from the free troposphere. We introduce a surface–free troposphere temperature difference (SFTD) metric, showing that positive SFTD (e.g., high lifting condensation level) amplifies ϵ, while negative SFTD (e.g., strong surface inversion) suppresses it. These findings provide a clear explanation of how local climate conditions modulate the radiative compensation between temperature and WV feedbacks.

climate feedback↗

Whistler Chorus Amplification in the Magnetosphere: The Nonlinear Free‐Electron Laser Model and the Ginzburg‐Landau Equation

We present a novel nonlinear model for whistler-mode chorus amplification based on the free-electron laser (FEL) mechanism. First, we derive the nonlinear collective variable equations for the whistler-electron interaction. Consistent with in situ satellite observations, these equations predict that a small seed wave can undergo exponential growth, reaching a peak of a few hundred picoteslas after a few milliseconds, followed by millisecond timescale amplitude modulations. Next, we show that when one accounts for multiple wave frequencies and wave spatial variations, the amplitude and phase of the whistler wave can be described by the Ginzburg-Landau equation (GLE), providing a framework for the investigation of solitary wave behavior of chorus modes. These findings enhance our understanding of wave-particle interactions and space weather in the Van Allen radiation belts, deepen the connection between whistler-electron dynamics and FELs, and reveal a novel connection between whistler-mode chorus and the GLE.

Ginsburg-Landau equation↗

Sequential Fracture Activation and Stress Evolution During EGS Stimulation at Utah FORGE Revealed by Waveform Cross‐Correlation

Mapping fracture networks in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is essential for optimizing reservoir performance, yet complex fracture evolution during stimulation remains difficult to resolve. This study examines the evolution of microseismicity and fracture networks during stage 3 of the 2022 EGS stimulation at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. We map the fracture network represented by 20 clusters of seismic events identified by waveform similarities with cross-correlation. We characterize their geometric properties such as strike, dip, length, and width, and analyze the time evolution of activated fractures. The results reveal a systematic fracture evolution: early activation of pre-existing natural fractures, complex network development during peak injection, and continued activation of less favorably oriented fractures post-injection. Magnitude calibration using the Principal Component Analysis of cross-correlated waveforms improves relative amplitude measurements, refining estimations of the Gutenberg-Richter b-values with spatial variations in b-values suggesting stress re-distribution across the stimulated area. Analysis of the stress state of selected fractures further shows that fractures requiring higher excess pore pressure primarily activate at the end of injection and post-injection, highlighting stress transfer due to pore pressure as a dominant triggering mechanism. These findings provide insights into fracture propagation, stress evolution, and seismic hazard assessment in EGS reservoirs.

Asirifi, Richard [Texas A & M Univ., College Stati↗

Diverse sediment microbiota shape methane emission temperature sensitivity in Arctic lakes

Abstract Northern post-glacial lakes are significant, increasing sources of atmospheric carbon through ebullition (bubbling) of microbially-produced methane (CH 4 ) from sediments. Ebullitive CH 4 flux correlates strongly with temperature, reflecting that solar radiation drives emissions. However, here we show that the slope of the temperature-CH 4 flux relationship differs spatially across two post-glacial lakes in Sweden. We compared these CH 4 emission patterns with sediment microbial (metagenomic and amplicon), isotopic, and geochemical data. The temperature-associated increase in CH 4 emissions was greater in lake middles—where methanogens were more abundant—than edges, and sediment communities were distinct between edges and middles. Microbial abundances, including those of CH 4 -cycling microorganisms and syntrophs, were predictive of porewater CH 4 concentrations. Results suggest that deeper lake regions, which currently emit less CH 4 than shallower edges, could add substantially to CH 4 emissions in a warmer Arctic and that CH 4 emission predictions may be improved by accounting for spatial variations in sediment microbiota.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revealing intrinsic domains and fluctuations of moiré magnetism by a wide-field quantum microscope

Moiré magnetism featured by stacking engineered atomic registry and lattice interactions has recently emerged as an appealing quantum state of matter at the forefront of condensed matter physics research. Nanoscale imaging of moiré magnets is highly desirable and serves as a prerequisite to investigate a broad range of intriguing physics underlying the interplay between topology, electronic correlations, and unconventional nanomagnetism. Here we report spin defect-based wide-field imaging of magnetic domains and spin fluctuations in twisted double trilayer (tDT) chromium triiodide CrI 3 . We explicitly show that intrinsic moiré domains of opposite magnetizations appear over arrays of moiré supercells in low-twist-angle tDT CrI 3 . In contrast, spin fluctuations measured in tDT CrI 3 manifest little spatial variations on the same mesoscopic length scale due to the dominant driving force of intralayer exchange interaction. Our results enrich the current understanding of exotic magnetic phases sustained by moiré magnetism and highlight the opportunities provided by quantum spin sensors in probing microscopic spin related phenomena on two-dimensional flatland.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Nonlinearity of the post-spinel transition and its expression in slabs and plumes worldwide

Phase transitions in the mantle control its internal dynamics and structure. The post-spinel transition marks the upper–lower mantle boundary, where ringwoodite dissociates into bridgmanite plus ferropericlase, and its Clapeyron slope regulates mantle flow across it. This interaction has previously been assumed to have no lateral spatial variations, based on the assumption of a linear post-spinel boundary in pressure and temperature. Here we present laser-heated diamond anvil cell experiments with synchrotron X-ray diffraction to better constrain this boundary, especially at higher temperatures. Combining our data with results from the literature, and using a global analysis based on machine learning, we find a pronounced nonlinearity in the post-spinel boundary, with its slope ranging from –4 MPa/K at 2100 K, to –2 MPa/K at 1950 K, and to 0 MPa/K at 1600 K. Changes in temperature over time and space can therefore cause the post-spinel transition to have variable effects on mantle convection and the movement of subducting slabs and upwelling plumes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Oblique and rippled heliosphere structures from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer

Abstract Past analysis has shown that the heliosphere structure can be deduced from correlations between long-scale solar wind pressure evolution and energetic neutral atom emissions. However, this required spatial and temporal averaging that smoothed out small or dynamic features of the heliosphere. In late 2014, the solar wind dynamic pressure increased by roughly 50% over a period of 6 months, causing a time and directional-dependent rise in around 2–6 keV energetic neutral atom fluxes from the heliosphere observed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer. Here, we use the 2014 pressure enhancement to provide a simultaneous derivation of the three-dimensional heliospheric termination shock (HTS) and heliopause (HP) distances at high resolution from Interstellar Boundary Explorer measurements. The analysis reveals rippled HTS and HP surfaces that are oblique with respect to the local interstellar medium upwind direction, with significant asymmetries in the heliosphere structure compared to steady-state heliosphere models. We estimate that the heliosphere boundaries contain roughly ten astronomical unit-sized spatial variations, with slightly larger variations on the HTS surface than the HP and a large-scale, southwards-directed obliquity of the surfaces in the meridional plane. Comparisons of the derived HTS and HP distances with Voyager observations indicate substantial differences in the heliosphere boundaries in the northern versus southern hemispheres and their motion over time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct evidence of microstructure dependence of magnetic flux trapping in niobium

Abstract Elemental type-II superconducting niobium is the material of choice for superconducting radiofrequency cavities used in modern particle accelerators, light sources, detectors, sensors, and quantum computing architecture. An essential challenge to increasing energy efficiency in rf applications is the power dissipation due to residual magnetic field that is trapped during the cool down process due to incomplete magnetic field expulsion. New SRF cavity processing recipes that use surface doping techniques have significantly increased their cryogenic efficiency. However, the performance of SRF Nb accelerators still shows vulnerability to a trapped magnetic field. In this manuscript, we report the observation of a direct link between flux trapping and incomplete flux expulsion with spatial variations in microstructure within the niobium. Fine-grain recrystallized microstructure with an average grain size of 10–50 µm leads to flux trapping even with a lack of dislocation structures in grain interiors. Larger grain sizes beyond 100–400 µm do not lead to preferential flux trapping, as observed directly by magneto-optical imaging. While local magnetic flux variations imaged by magneto-optics provide clarity on a microstructure level, bulk variations are also indicated by variations in pinning force curves with sequential heat treatment studies. The key results indicate that complete control of the niobium microstructure will help produce higher performance superconducting resonators with reduced rf losses 1 related to the magnetic flux trapping.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability of biomass yield and quality in bioenergy supply chain

Abstract Biofuels made from biomass and waste residues will largely contribute to United States’ 2050 decarbonization goal in the aviation sector. While cellulosic biofuels have the potential fuel performance equivalent to petroleum-based jet fuel, the biofuel industry needs to overcome the supply chain barrier caused by temporal and spatial variability of biomass yield and quality. This study highlights the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variability during biomass supply chain planning via optimization modeling that incorporates 10 years of drought index data, a primary factor contributing to yield and quality variability. The results imply that the cost of delivering biomass to biorefinery may be significantly underestimated if the multi-year temporal and spatial variation in biomass yield and quality is not captured. For long term sustainable biorefinery operations, the industry should optimize supply chain strategy by studying the variability of yield and quality of biomass in their supply sheds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗