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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2014

An exact and efficient first passage time algorithm for reaction–diffusion processes on a 2D-lattice

We present an exact and efficient algorithm for reaction–diffusion–nucleation processes on a 2D-lattice. The algorithm makes use of first passage time (FPT) to replace the computationally intensive simulation of diffusion hops in KMC by larger jumps when particles are far away from step-edges or other particles. Our approach computes exact probability distributions of jump times and target locations in a closed-form formula, based on the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the corresponding 1D transition matrix, maintaining atomic-scale resolution of resulting shapes of deposit islands. We have applied our method to three different test cases of electrodeposition: pure diffusional aggregation for large ranges of diffusivity rates and for simulation domain sizes of up to 4096×4096 sites, the effect of diffusivity on island shapes and sizes in combination with a KMC edge diffusion, and the calculation of an exclusion zone in front of a step-edge, confirming statistical equivalence to standard KMC simulations. The algorithm achieves significant speedup compared to standard KMC for cases where particles diffuse over long distances before nucleating with other particles or being captured by larger islands.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

A robust and efficient stepwise regression method for building sparse polynomial chaos expansions

Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions are widely used in various engineering fields for quantifying uncertainties arising from uncertain parameters. The computational cost of classical PC solution schemes is unaffordable as the number of deterministic simulations to be calculated grows dramatically with the number of stochastic dimension. This considerably restricts the practical use of PC at the industrial level. A common approach to address such problems is to make use of sparse PC expansions. This paper presents a non-intrusive regression-based method for building sparse PC expansions. The most important PC contributions are detected sequentially through an automatic search procedure. The variable selection criterion is based on efficient tools relevant to probabilistic method. Two benchmark analytical functions are used to validate the proposed algorithm. The computational efficiency of the method is then illustrated by a more realistic CFD application, consisting of the non-deterministic flow around a transonic airfoil subject to geometrical uncertainties. To assess the performance of the developed methodology, a detailed comparison is made with the well established LAR-based selection technique. The results show that the developed sparse regression technique is able to identify the most significant PC contributions describing the problem. Moreover, the most important stochastic features are captured at a reduced computational cost compared to the LAR method. The results also demonstrate the superior robustness of the method by repeating the analyses using random experimental designs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Future Electron-Ion Collider

Generalized Parton Distributions include rich information and became a powerful tool for studying hadron structure. Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering is the golden channel to access GPDs. The development of high luminosity and high-acceptance detectors (Electron-Ion Collider) allows physicists to overcome the difficulty of DVCS measurements. The outstanding performance of the accelerator performs the eA collisions at the center of mass energy from 20 to 140 GeV, while the luminosity at the scale of 1034 cm?2s?1. The new type of high-density crystal, PWO-II, produced by CRYTUR in 2×2×20 cm3 will be utilized in the calorimeter. The transparency of PWO-II crystals is > 70% at 620 nm, > 60% at 420 nm, and >35% at 360 nm. The crystals also show good radiation hardness under 30 Gy radiation exposure. Ten PWO-II crystals have a uniform light yield at 30 p.e./MeV, providing sufficient light yield to reduce the fluctuation of the energy measurements. Near 3000 crystals were constructed inside the 12-sided polygon supporting structure in the simulation. The island clustering algorithm was used for reconstructed the energy. The energy resolution study by the particle gun shows the stochastic term and constant term are 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively. The spatial resolution of NEEMC varies from 5% to 15% of the crystal?s width depending on the particle?s incident angle. The pion rejection of NEEMC can reach 103 with electron efficiency > 85% when the particle?s energy is larger than 1GeV. The Pi0- identified efficiency study can be interpreted as finding the local maxima in the single cluster caused by two high energy close photons. The study results show that efficiency is nearly 100% for pi0 energy is smaller than 10 GeV, and efficiency drops to 30% with 20 GeV pi0. The new type of 3x3 pixelated AC-LGAD were wire bonded to ALTIROC for performance test. The cross-talk between the adjacent channels is about 20% for VPA and 10% for TZ. A series of the TDC characteristic measurements show that the jitter for both preamplifiers is about 20 ps, and the time-walk effect is mild for inject charge > 12 pF. Furthermore, the beta source radiation results quantify the sharing scale of the 3x3 pixels AC-LGAD (? 20%). The electronics simulation study results show no significant changes in the spatial resolution, whether ADC resolution is 8, 10, or 12 bits. The 8-bit ADC is decided to use in the EICROC as it has a smaller size and power consumption than the 10-bit and 12-bit ADC. The ECCE is one of the full detector proposals for EIC. The new type of DVCS generator, called TOPEG, is used to generate the high acceptance beam configurations of 18×110 GeV2 electron and 4He. The acceptance study shows a -1.8 < ? < -1.4 gap between the BEMC and EEMC. The 10?x,y geometry cut is applied on the Roman Pots, so the acceptance of Roman Pots quickly drops to 0% when the polar angle of the recoiled 4He < 2 mrad. This primary ECCE simulation study suggests extending the acceptance of BEMC longitudinally as the structure limits the radial size of EEMC. The acceptance of the Roman Pots is still challenging. In 2023, The overall design of ePIC was finalized by merging two full detector proposals (ECCE and ATHENA) after a series of intensive simulation studies.

Wang, Pu-Kai↗
DOE OSTI2013

An iterative stochastic ensemble method for parameter estimation of subsurface flow models

Parameter estimation for subsurface flow models is an essential step for maximizing the value of numerical simulations for future prediction and the development of effective control strategies. We propose the iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM) as a general method for parameter estimation based on stochastic estimation of gradients using an ensemble of directional derivatives. ISEM eliminates the need for adjoint coding and deals with the numerical simulator as a blackbox. The proposed method employs directional derivatives within a Gauss–Newton iteration. The update equation in ISEM resembles the update step in ensemble Kalman filter, however the inverse of the output covariance matrix in ISEM is regularized using standard truncated singular value decomposition or Tikhonov regularization. We also investigate the performance of a set of shrinkage based covariance estimators within ISEM. The proposed method is successfully applied on several nonlinear parameter estimation problems for subsurface flow models. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the small size of utilized ensembles and in terms of error convergence rates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Analysis of Differential Financial Impacts of LWR Load-Following Operations. Revision 1

This document reports the application of HERON (Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network), a newly-developed RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization, to a case study conducted in collaboration with Arizona Public Service (APS). The study is a work in progress; this report presents a description of current models and corresponding results for a particular consideration. APS is anticipating several operational challenges. The first is rapid growth of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources such as wind and solar power providing energy to the grid in the APS service region. This creates challenges for baseload operation of the Palo Verde Generating Station (PVGS), a nuclear power plant co-owned and operated by APS. The second challenge for APS is a change in the cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG). The existing contract is expiring soon, and a renewal is only available for a significantly higher price of water. These two challenges represent a difficulty in maintaining profitability for PVGS as local area demand is highly fluctuant and water prices may increase. Furthermore, excess production at PVGS is currently traded on the Palo Verde energy Hub (PVH), which occasionally offers very low or negative locational marginal prices (LMP) for electricity. This analysis considers the potential benefits of occasional curtailment of PVGS as a method to mitigate unprofitable production hours. Similar to load following, optional daily curtailment would allow APS to elect curtailment of PVGS as low as 70% of its nominal operating level between the hours of 08:00 and 16:00 provided local area demand is met and it is profitable to do so. This document reports a stochastic differential analysis of the Net Present Value (NPV) of PVGS as operated by NPS as a result of optional curtailment operation. To model this differential case, HERON has been designed from previous efforts in this study as a generic tool to accelerate the design and execution of RAVEN workflows for technoeconomic analysis of grid energy systems. HERON leverages both RAVEN and the CashFlow plugin for RAVEN to stochastically explore or optimize a response surface with energy grid system production capacities as inputs and mean NPV as a goal function. HERON performs these evaluations by stochastically sampling market, weather, and demand events using RAVEN’s ARMA reduced-order model capability to generate boundary conditions for dispatch optimization. The algorithm performs the dispatch optimization for each of the synthetic scenarios. For this case, HERON designs workflows to simulate behavior of the PVH, wind, solar, and APS local area demand, and use these synthetic scenarios to stochastically evaluate the differential benefit of optional curtailment for each scenario. While this study finds optional curtailment to be a potential source of revenue, the magnitude of the differential NPV is sufficiently small that it is unlikely a priority for increasing the profitability of PVGS. Further, the differential NPV shrinks throughout the simulated years, suggesting the long-term benefit of such operation given current assumptions is negligible.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning-assisted high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage optimization

High-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (HT-RTES) has the potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of the net-zero carbon economy, given its capability to balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to co-optimize the performance metrics of HT-RTES by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Further, neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Conservative tightly-coupled simulations of stochastic multiscale systems

Multiphysics problems often involve components whose macroscopic dynamics is driven by microscopic random fluctuations. The fidelity of simulations of such systems depends on their ability to propagate these random fluctuations throughout a computational domain, including subdomains represented by deterministic solvers. When the constituent processes take place in nonoverlapping subdomains, system behavior can be modeled via a domain-decomposition approach that couples separate components at the interfaces between these subdomains. Its coupling algorithm has to maintain a stable and efficient numerical time integration even at high noise strength. We propose a conservative domain-decomposition algorithm in which tight coupling is achieved by employing either Picard's or Newton's iterative method. Coupled diffusion equations, one of which has a Gaussian white-noise source term, provide a computational testbed for analysis of these two coupling strategies. Fully-converged (“implicit”) coupling with Newton's method typically outperforms its Picard counterpart, especially at high noise levels. This is because the number of Newton iterations scales linearly with the amplitude of the Gaussian noise, while the number of Picard iterations can scale superlinearly. At large time intervals between two subsequent inter-solver communications, the solution error for single-iteration (“explicit”) Picard's coupling can be several orders of magnitude higher than that for implicit coupling. Increasing the explicit coupling's communication frequency reduces this difference, but the resulting increase in computational cost can make it less efficient than implicit coupling at similar levels of solution error, depending on the communication frequency of the latter and the noise strength. This trend carries over into higher dimensions, although at high noise strength explicit coupling may be the only computationally viable option.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dynamic Simulation with on the fly Doppler Broadening treatment in RMC

In conventional transient analysis, thermal hydraulics calculations are generally coupled to deterministic neutronics solvers. Due to the limited accuracy of deterministic methods and the rapid development of computer power, Monte Carlo neutronics calculations have received increasing attention nowadays. One of challenges for Monte Carlo methods coupled to thermal hydraulics calculations is the temperature dependent cross sections. Taking the detailed temperature distribution feedback into account, each nuclide may be in a large range of temperatures, pre-generated libraries at every temperature point are no longer applicable owing to unaffordable memory footprint. Different solutions have been proposed to deal with this problem. TMS, accounting for Doppler broadening effect by the explicit treatment of thermal motion, was used to model fast transients in Serpent 2. Stochastic mixing, using two sets of libraries for each nuclide and mixing them to get the correct temperature, was used in transient analysis by Sjenitzer and Hoogenboom. Besides, there are other on the fly Doppler broadening methods being developed, including series expansion of cross sections, multipole representation, different integration algorithms based on Doppler broadening equation. In this paper, on the fly Doppler broadening treatment based on integration algorithms was applied to transient calculation in Reactor Monte Carlo code RMC . In the following section, the integration algorithms implemented and dynamic simulation method in RMC is briefly introduced. Finally, a pure physical transient fuel assembly model was chosen for numerical validation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Finite element formulation of fluctuating hydrodynamics for fluids filled with rigid particles using boundary fitted meshes

In this paper, we present a finite element implementation of fluctuating hydrodynamics with a moving boundary fitted mesh for treating the suspended particles. The thermal fluctuations are incorporated into the continuum equations using the Landau and Lifshitz approach [1]. The proposed implementation fulfills the fluctuation–dissipation theorem exactly at the discrete level. Since we restrict the equations to the creeping flow case, this takes the form of a relation between the diffusion coefficient matrix and friction matrix both at the particle and nodal level of the finite elements. Brownian motion of arbitrarily shaped particles in complex confinements can be considered within the present formulation. A multi-step time integration scheme is developed to correctly capture the drift term required in the stochastic differential equation (SDE) describing the evolution of the positions of the particles. The proposed approach is validated by simulating the Brownian motion of a sphere between two parallel plates and the motion of a spherical particle in a cylindrical cavity. The time integration algorithm and the fluctuating hydrodynamics implementation are then applied to study the diffusion and the equilibrium probability distribution of a confined circle under an external harmonic potential.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark Solutions for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Inhomogeneous Material Statistics

Accurately solving implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) thermal photon transport problems with mixed material cells is important in realistic applications. The production IMC package at LLNL treats mixed material cells arising from ALE remap and hydrodynamics using the same approximate model. The new Imp IMC thermal photon transport package currently under development has both a material interface reconstruction (MIR) algorithm and a Levermore-Pomraning (LP) stochastic medium algorithm for treating mixed material cells. Existing stochastic medium algorithms for treating mixed material cells in IMC lack a complete theoretical basis. The IMC LP algorithm implementation has been demonstrated to reproduce published deterministic LP solutions for the particular case of spatially homogeneous material statistics. Realistic simulations will include spatially inhomogeneous material statistics (material mean chord lengths). In a previous investigation, the LP-model for transport in binary stochastic media in rod geometry was generalized to accommodate spatially varying material chord lengths, i.e., the mixing statistics were allowed to be nonhomogeneous. Analytical solutions were obtained and used to produce a verifi cation suite for the Imp IMC Levermore-Pomraning implementation for different spatial variations of the chord lengths. However, the accuracy of the LP model when the mixing statistics are nonhomogeneous has not been assessed and leaves open the question of whether local accuracy is improved or further degraded when chord lengths are not uniform. This shortcoming is rectifi ed here by developing benchmark analytic solutions for transport in binary Markovian stochastic mixtures in rod geometry with nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, using spatially varying chord lengths considered in the previous investigation based on the LP model. Methods for sampling a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) are first described and used to construct individual realizations of the binary mixtures in rod geometry. Analytic solutions are then obtained for the forward and backward directed fluxes on a given realization, now viewed as a deterministic medium with alternating layers of the two materials with known interface locations. Finally, material averaged scalar fluxes are obtained using these sampling schemes with spatially linear and quadratic chord lengths and used to assess the accuracy of the previously obtained LP-model results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncontrolled Learning: Codesign of Neuromorphic Hardware Topology for Neuromorphic Algorithms

Neuromorphic computing has the potential to revolutionize future technologies and our understanding of intelligence, yet it remains challenging to realize in practice. The learning-from-mistakes algorithm, inspired by the brain's simple learning rules of inhibition and pruning, is one of the few brain-like training methods. This algorithm is implemented in neuromorphic memristive hardware through a codesign process that evaluates essential hardware trade-offs. While the algorithm effectively trains small networks as binary classifiers and perceptrons, performance declines significantly with increasing network size unless the hardware is tailored to the algorithm. This work investigates the trade-offs between depth, controllability, and capacity—the number of learnable patterns—in neuromorphic hardware. This highlights the importance of topology and governing equations, providing theoretical tools to evaluate a device's computational capacity based on its measurements and circuit structure. The findings show that breaking neural network symmetry enhances both controllability and capacity. Additionally, by pruning the circuit, neuromorphic algorithms in all-memristive circuits can utilize stochastic resources to create local contrasts in network weights. Through combined experimental and simulation efforts, the parameters are identified that enable networks to exhibit emergent intelligence from simple rules, advancing the potential of neuromorphic computing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Easy Algorithm to Generate Colored Noise Sequences

The need for accurate and efficient simulation of the noise background arises in statistical significance tests for periodic signals buried in colored noise. This paper discusses techniques for generating colored-noise sequences which simulate processes with a given spectral density. Matlab routines based on the fast fractional difference algorithm are presented. These routines can create various stochastic models (e.g., first-order autoregressive (AR(1)), power law (PL), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average ((1, d, 0)), and generalized Gauss Markov (GGM)) that serve as possible candidate null hypotheses to test against in various scenarios. Allan variance and power spectral density (PSD) show that our algorithms are accurate and efficient, and can be easily implemented for stationary noise models and non-stationary PLs with spectral indices up to 2. Our algorithms can also be extended to produce a non-stationary PL with a range-limited steeper PSD (spectral indices up to about 4) using a GGM approximation with a proper break frequency. The red-noise leakage effect on the periodogram is further discussed. The result shows that our GGM approximation has a potential for alleviating the red-noise leakage in the PSD estimates. The Timmer and Koenig procedure is also included for comparison.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios

Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements. Here, future work can leverage the algorithm as part of a stochastic optimization of electric grid operations with high-penetration PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quasi-Stochastic Approximation and Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Preprint

The Robbins-Monro stochastic approximation algorithm is a foundation of many algorithmic frameworks for reinforcement learning and often an efficient approach to solving (or approximating the solution to) complex optimal control problems. In many cases, however, practitioners are unable to apply these techniques because of an inherent high variance. This paper aims to provide a general foundation for 'quasi-stochastic approximation,' in which all of the processes under consideration are deterministic, much like quasi-Monte Carlo for variance reduction in simulation. The variance reduction can be substantial, subject to tuning of pertinent parameters in the algorithm. This paper introduces a new coupling argument to establish the optimal rate of convergence provided the gain is sufficiently large. These results are established for linear models and tested also in nonideal settings. A major application of these general results is a new class of reinforcement learning algorithms for deterministic state space models. In this setting, the main contribution is a class of algorithms for approximating the value function for a given policy, using a different policy designed to introduce exploration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Output Feedback Stabilization for a Class of Multi-Variable Bilinear Stochastic Systems with Stochastic Coupling Attenuation

In this paper, stochastic coupling attenuation is investigated for a class of multi-variable bilinear stochastic systems and a novel output feedback m-block backstepping controller with linear estimator is designed, where gradient descent optimization is used to tune the design parameters of the controller. It has been shown that the trajectories of the closed-loop stochastic systems are bounded in probability sense and the stochastic coupling of the system outputs can be effectively attenuated by the proposed control algorithm. Moreover, the stability of the stochastic systems is analyzed and the effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated using a simulated example.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2014

In silico prediction of toxicity of non-congeneric industrial chemicals using ensemble learning based modeling approaches

Ensemble learning approach based decision treeboost (DTB) and decision tree forest (DTF) models are introduced in order to establish quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) for the prediction of toxicity of 1450 diverse chemicals. Eight non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors were derived. Structural diversity of the chemicals was evaluated using Tanimoto similarity index. Stochastic gradient boosting and bagging algorithms supplemented DTB and DTF models were constructed for classification and function optimization problems using the toxicity end-point in T. pyriformis. Special attention was drawn to prediction ability and robustness of the models, investigated both in external and 10-fold cross validation processes. In complete data, optimal DTB and DTF models rendered accuracies of 98.90%, 98.83% in two-category and 98.14%, 98.14% in four-category toxicity classifications. Both the models further yielded classification accuracies of 100% in external toxicity data of T. pyriformis. The constructed regression models (DTB and DTF) using five descriptors yielded correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}) of 0.945, 0.944 between the measured and predicted toxicities with mean squared errors (MSEs) of 0.059, and 0.064 in complete T. pyriformis data. The T. pyriformis regression models (DTB and DTF) applied to the external toxicity data sets yielded R{sup 2} and MSE values of 0.637, 0.655; 0.534, 0.507 (marine bacteria) and 0.741, 0.691; 0.155, 0.173 (algae). The results suggest for wide applicability of the inter-species models in predicting toxicity of new chemicals for regulatory purposes. These approaches provide useful strategy and robust tools in the screening of ecotoxicological risk or environmental hazard potential of chemicals. - Graphical abstract: Importance of input variables in DTB and DTF classification models for (a) two-category, and (b) four-category toxicity intervals in T. pyriformis data. Generalization and predictive abilities of the constructed (c) DTB and (d) DTF regression models to predict the T. pyriformis toxicity of diverse chemicals. - Highlights: • Ensemble learning (EL) based models constructed for toxicity prediction of chemicals • Predictive models used a few simple non-quantum mechanical molecular descriptors. • EL-based DTB/DTF models successfully discriminated toxic and non-toxic chemicals. • DTB/DTF regression models precisely predicted toxicity of chemicals in multi-species. • Proposed EL based models can be used as tool to predict toxicity of new chemicals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗