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At least 181 records · Page 10

Dust extinction and molecular gas in the dark cloud IC 5146

In this paper we describe a powerful method for mapping the distribution of dust through a molecular cloud using data obtained in large-scale, multiwavelength, infrared imaging surveys. This method combines direct measurements of near-infrared color excess and certain techniques of star counting to derive mean extinctions and map the dust column density distribution through a cloud at higher angular resolutions and greater optical depths than those achieved previously by optical star counting. We report the initial results of the application of this method to a dark cloud complex near the cluster IC 5146, where we have performed coordinated, near-infrared, JHK imaging and (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS millimeter-wave, molecular-line surveys of a large portion of the complex. More than 4000 stars were detected in our JHK survey of the cloud. Of these, all but about a dozen appear to be field stars not associated with the cloud. Star count maps at J band show a striking and detailed anticorrelation between the surface density of J-band sources and CO and CS molecular-line emission. We used the (H-K) colors and positions of nearly 1300 sources to directly measure and map the extinction and thus trace the dust column density through the cloud at an effective angular resolution of 1 min .5. We report an interesting correlation between the measured dispersion in our extinction determinations and the extinction. Modeling this relation indicates that effects of small-scale cloud structure dominate the uncertainties in our measurements. Moreover, we demonstrate that such observations can be used to place constraints on the nature of the spatial distribution of extinction on scales smaller than our resolution. In particular, we show that models in which the dust is distributed uniformly or in discrete high-extinction clumps on scales smaller than (1 min .5) are inconsistent with the observations. We have derived extinctions at the same positions and at the same angular resolution (1 min .7) as our molecular-line observations. This enabled a direct comparison of (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS integrated intensities and column densities with A(sub V) for more than 500 positions in the cloud, corresponding to a range in A(sub V) between 0 to 32 mag of extinction. We found the integrated intensities of (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS to be roughly linearly correlated with extinction over different ranges of extinction. However, for all three molecules we find the scatter in the observed relations to be larger than can be accounted for by instrumental error, suggesting that there are large intrinsic variations in the abundances or excitation of the molecules through the cloud. Mean abundances for all the molecules relative to hydrogen were directly derived from the data. The ratio of (13)CO to C(18)O abundances was found to be significantly higher than the terrestrial ratio in regions where extinction is less than 10 mag. In the same region, the dispersion in the abundance ratio is also found to be very large, suggesting that the abundances of one or both molecules are very unstable even at relatively large cloud optical depths. Beyond 10 mag of extinction the abundances of both species appear very stable with their ratio close to the terrestrial value.

Lada, Charles J.↗

Wind Tunnel Testing of the NASA-DFRC Flutterometer using a Two DOF Wing Section

Flutter of an aeroelastic structure is potentially destructive aeroelastic instability. This phenomenon has motivated research within the aeroelastic community to develop methods that can accurately predict aeroelastic instabilities. The Flutterometer method used herein, and as developed by NASA DFRC, is based upon the mu method which has been coupled with wavelet filtering processes in estimating aeroelastic models from flight data. The approach leads to a methodology to predict the occurrence of flutter boundaries, and may prove to reliably predict flutter boundaries during flight tests. An analytical model is used as the first estimate of the aeroelastic structural dynamics, and uncertainty operators are introduced into the system to model variations between the theoretical system and the physical system. The modelling uncertainties are then updated from experimental data. Although the model used did not work well with this particular experiment, a sensitivity analysis was additionally performed and improvements suggested.

Strganac, Thomas W.↗

Evaluating and optimizing horticultural regimes in space plant growth facilities

In designing innovative space plant growth facilities (SPGF) for long duration space flight, various limitations must be addressed including onboard resources: volume, energy consumption, heat transfer and crew labor expenditure. The required accuracy in evaluating on board resources by using the equivalent mass methodology and applying it to the design of such facilities is not precise. This is due to the uncertainty of the structure and not completely understanding the properties of all associated hardware, including the technology in these systems. We present a simple criteria of optimization for horticultural regimes in SPGF: Qmax = max [M x (EBI)2/(V x E x T], where M is the crop harvest in terms of total dry biomass in the plant growth system; EBI is the edible biomass index (harvest index), V is volume occupied by the crop; E is the crop light energy supply during growth; T is the crop growth duration. The criterion reflects directly on the consumption of onboard resources for crop production. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Investigating the Differential Emission Measure and Energetics of Microflares with Combined SDO/AIA and RHESSI Observations

An important question in solar physics is whether solar microflares, the smallest currently observable flare events in X-rays, possess the same energetic properties as large flares. Recent surveys have suggested that microflares may be less efficient particle accelerators than large flares, and hence contribute less non-thermal energy, which may have implications for coronal heating mechanisms. We therefore explore the energetic properties of microflares by combining EUV and X-ray measurements. We present forward-fitting differential emission measure (DEM) analysis of 10 microflares. The fitting is constrained by combining, for the first time, high-temperature Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) observations and flux data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). Two fitting models are tested for the DEM; a Gaussian distribution and a uniform DEM profile. A Gaussian fit proved unable to explain the observations for any of the studied microflares. However, 8 of 10 events studied were reasonably fit by a uniform DEM profile. Hence microflare plasma can be considered to be significantly multi-thermal, and may not be significantly peaked or contain resolvable fine structure, within the uncertainties of the observational instruments. The thermal and non-thermal energy is estimated for each microflare, comparing the energy budget with an isothermal plasma assumption. From the multi-thermal fits the minimum non-thermal energy content was found to average approximately 30% of the estimated thermal energy. By comparison, under an isothermal model the non-thermal and thermal energy estimates were generally comparable. Hence, multi-thermal plasma is an important consideration for solar microflares that substantially alters their thermal and non-thermal energy content.

Sun: flares↗

Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis Using a Surrogate Model Trained Via 3D Finite Element Analysis

Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring can be integrated with damage progression models to form probabilistic predictions of a structure's remaining useful life. However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In the present work, a high-fidelity finite element model is represented by a surrogate model, reducing computation times. The new approach is used with damage diagnosis data to form a probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life for a test specimen under mixed-mode conditions.

Leser, Patrick E.↗

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗

Precipitating Electron Energy Flux and Characteristic Energies in Jupiter's Main Auroral Region as Measured by Juno/JEDI

The relationship between electron energy flux and the characteristic energy of electron distributions in the main auroral loss cone bridges the gap between predictions made by theory and measurements just recently available from Juno. For decades such relationships have been inferred from remote sensing observations of the Jovian aurora, primarily from the Hubble Space Telescope, and also more recently from Hisaki. However, to infer these quantities, remote sensing techniques had to assume properties of the Jovian atmospheric structure - leading to uncertainties in their profile. Juno's arrival and subsequent auroral passes have allowed us to obtain these relationships unambiguously for the first time, when the spacecraft passes through the auroral acceleration region. Using Juno /Jupiter Energetic particle Detector Instrument (JEDI), an energetic particle instrument, we present these relationships for the 30-kiloelectronvolts to 1-megaelectronvolts electron population. Observations presented here show that the electron energy flux in the loss cone is a nonlinear function of the characteristic or mean electron energy and supports both the predictions from Knight (1973, https://doi.org/10.1016/0032-0633(73)90093-7) and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence acceleration theories (e.g., Saur et al., 2003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015761). Finally, we compare the in situ analyses of Juno with remote Hisaki observations and use them to help constrain Jupiter's atmospheric profile. We find a possible solution that provides the best agreement between these data sets is an atmospheric profile that more efficiently transports the hydrocarbons to higher altitudes. If this is correct, it supports the previously published idea (e.g., Parkinson et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JE002539) that precipitating electrons increase the hydrocarbon eddy diffusion coefficients in the auroral regions.

Auroral↗

A Modern Load Relief Guidance Scheme for Space Launch Vehicles

Launch vehicle load relief algorithms are concerned with realizing a reduction of transient bending moments near maximum dynamic pressure. Traditional approaches to load relief typically use inner-loop acceleration feedback to reduce the wind-induced angle of attack. When implemented in the inner loop, load relief bandwidth is necessarily limited by the achievable stability margins, and when acceleration feedback is employed, by the uncertainty associated with structural modes that couple with the body-mounted accelerometer. The structure of inner loop load relief increases the dimensionality of the flight control gain and filter optimization problem. Most importantly, classical load relief laws do not take advantage of high-rate and high-accuracy GPS-aided inertial velocity data that is readily available from modern strap down IMUs. In this paper, a novel load relief guidance scheme is described that uses direct angle-of-attack feedback in a clever mechanization. The steering commands are determined by examining the wind-perturbed dynamics of a launch vehicle with respect to a gravity turn ascent trajectory. An angle of attack estimate is derived from GPS-aided inertial data and pre-launch range wind measurements, and it is shown that a reduction worst-case rigid-body loads can be realized without requiring air data. The algorithm also includes a high-rate navigation data preprocessing scheme that operates directly on the IMU delta-theta and delta-velocity measurements in order to produce a filtered acceleration estimate at the vehicle center of mass. The outer-loop guidance scheme simplifies the design process for the classical inner-loop autopilot. Algorithm performance is demonstrated using Monte Carlo analysis of a representative liquid booster in a production high fidelity launch vehicle simulation.

NESC↗

Ultrasonic Inspection During Autoclave Cure of Reflowable-Interface Composite Joints

In structural bonds, the interface between adherend and adhesive is nearly two-dimensional making the interface susceptible to minute quantities of contamination, which can cause weak bonds. Regulatory organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) often require redundant load paths in secondary-bonded primary-structures due to uncertainty in bond performance. To address this issue, the NASA Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS): Adhesive Free Bonding of Composites (AERoBOND) project is investigating reformulated aerospace epoxy-matrix resins to enable reflow and diffusion of the resin at the joint interface during a secondary bonding and cure process that can eliminate the material discontinuity at the interface. Implementing in-situ process monitoring enables assessing the bond quality during processing rather than waiting for post-fabrication mechanical testing to be completed. In this paper, an in-situ ultrasonic inspection system is used to monitor the joining of three composite laminates assembled using the AERoBOND technique. For each panel, the amplitude of the wave reflection at the joint was measured throughout the cure cycle. The results indicate the timing and extent of reflow and cure of the epoxy resin at the joint. Factors indicating end of cure were ascertained and a metric was developed to qualitatively predict acceptable mode-II fracture toughness based on the ultrasonic amplitude at the joint line during cure. In addition, since the inspection system scans an area of the joint, high-resolution localized results can be obtained across the joint.

Tyler B Hudson↗

Probabilistic composite analysis

Formal procedures are described which are used to computationally simulate the probabilistic behavior of composite structures. The computational simulation starts with the uncertainties associated with all aspects of a composite structure (constituents, fabrication, assembling, etc.) and encompasses all aspects of composite behavior (micromechanics, macromechanics, combined stress failure, laminate theory, structural response, and tailoring) optimization. Typical cases are included to illustrate the formal procedure for computational simulation. The collective results of the sample cases demonstrate that uncertainties in composite behavior and structural response can be probabilistically quantified.

Chamis, C. C.↗

Distributed control of large space antennas

A systematic way to choose control design parameters and to evaluate performance for large space antennas is presented. The structural dynamics and control properties for a Hoop and Column Antenna and a Wrap-Rib Antenna are characterized. Some results of the effects of model parameter uncertainties to the stability, surface accuracy, and pointing errors are presented. Critical dynamics and control problems for these antenna configurations are identified and potential solutions are discussed. It was concluded that structural uncertainties and model error can cause serious performance deterioration and can even destabilize the controllers. For the hoop and column antenna, large hoop and long meat and the lack of stiffness between the two substructures result in low structural frequencies. Performance can be improved if this design can be strengthened. The two-site control system is more robust than either single-site control systems for the hoop and column antenna.

Cameron, J. M.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

Shah, A. R.↗

Intercomparison of the LASCO-C2, SECCHI-COR1, SECCHI-COR2, and Mk4 Coronagraphs

In order to assess the reliability and consistency of white-light coronagraph measurements, we report on quantitative comparisons between polarized brightness [pB] and total brightness [B] images taken by the following white-light coronagraphs: LASCO-C2 on SOHO, SECCHI-COR1 and -COR2 on STEREO, and the ground-based MLSO-Mk4. The data for this comparison were taken on 16 April 2007, when both STEREO spacecraft were within 3.1 deg. of Earth’s heliographic longitude, affording essentially the same view of the Sun for all of the instruments. Due to the difficulties of estimating stray-light backgrounds in COR1 and COR2, only Mk4 and C2 produce reliable coronal-hole values (but not at overlapping heights), and these cannot be validated without rocket flights or ground-based eclipse measurements. Generally, the agreement between all of the instruments’ pB values is within the uncertainties in bright streamer structures, implying that measurements of bright CMEs also should be trustworthy. Dominant sources of uncertainty and stray light are discussed, as is the design of future coronagraphs from the perspective of the experiences with these instruments.

Coronagraph↗

Uncertainty and Intelligence in Computational Stochastic Mechanics

Classical structural reliability assessment techniques are based on precise and crisp (sharp) definitions of failure and non-failure (survival) of a structure in meeting a set of strength, function and serviceability criteria. These definitions are provided in the form of performance functions and limit state equations. Thus, the criteria provide a dichotomous definition of what real physical situations represent, in the form of abrupt change from structural survival to failure. However, based on observing the failure and survival of real structures according to the serviceability and strength criteria, the transition from a survival state to a failure state and from serviceability criteria to strength criteria are continuous and gradual rather than crisp and abrupt. That is, an entire spectrum of damage or failure levels (grades) is observed during the transition to total collapse. In the process, serviceability criteria are gradually violated with monotonically increasing level of violation, and progressively lead into the strength criteria violation. Classical structural reliability methods correctly and adequately include the ambiguity sources of uncertainty (physical randomness, statistical and modeling uncertainty) by varying amounts. However, they are unable to adequately incorporate the presence of a damage spectrum, and do not consider in their mathematical framework any sources of uncertainty of the vagueness type. Vagueness can be attributed to sources of fuzziness, unclearness, indistinctiveness, sharplessness and grayness; whereas ambiguity can be attributed to nonspecificity, one-to-many relations, variety, generality, diversity and divergence. Using the nomenclature of structural reliability, vagueness and ambiguity can be accounted for in the form of realistic delineation of structural damage based on subjective judgment of engineers. For situations that require decisions under uncertainty with cost/benefit objectives, the risk of failure should depend on the underlying level of damage and the uncertainties associated with its definition. A mathematical model for structural reliability assessment that includes both ambiguity and vagueness types of uncertainty was suggested to result in the likelihood of failure over a damage spectrum. The resulting structural reliability estimates properly represent the continuous transition from serviceability to strength limit states over the ultimate time exposure of the structure. In this section, a structural reliability assessment method based on a fuzzy definition of failure is suggested to meet these practical needs. A failure definition can be developed to indicate the relationship between failure level and structural response. In this fuzzy model, a subjective index is introduced to represent all levels of damage (or failure). This index can be interpreted as either a measure of failure level or a measure of a degree of belief in the occurrence of some performance condition (e.g., failure). The index allows expressing the transition state between complete survival and complete failure for some structural response based on subjective evaluation and judgment.

Ayyub, Bilal M.↗

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Chamis, C. C.↗

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗