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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear X-ray Optics

Novel X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) are capable of producing radiation with unprecedented properties. Specifically, their ultrashort coherent X-ray pulses can generate extreme peak intensities where ordinary rules of light-matter interaction may no longer apply, and nonlinear processes start to become important. XFELs have made it possible to observe some of the most important coherent non-sequential nonlinearities, including X-ray-optical sum frequency generation (SFG), X-ray second harmonic generation (XSHG), two-photon absorption (TPA) and nonlinear two-photon Compton scattering (2PCS). In particular, the 2PCS experiment has led to unexpected results, namely the observation of a substantial anomalous red shift in the energy of photons generated by nonlinear two-photon X-ray Compton scattering in beryllium. The energy shift is in addition to the predicted nonlinear Compton shift and was neither expected from extrapolations from linear X-ray interactions nor from nonlinear effects at optical wavelengths. Our results suggest a novel nonlinear scattering mechanism that can only be observed at high fields at X-ray wavelengths, where the photon energy is a significant fraction of the electron rest mass (and thus a significant momentum transfer to the electron occurs during the scattering) and where the interaction is not dominated by the quiver motion of the electron in the field (ponderomotive potential) as is usually the case at longer (optical) wavelengths. The goal of this research project was the investigation of fundamental nonlinear X-ray-matter interactions. As these processes are typically weak, part of this research is the exploration of more efficient nonlinear X-ray processes by studying novel mechanisms including solid-state effects, the assistance of optical radiation and novel phase-matching techniques. These experiments require extremely large X-ray field strengths, such as produced by XFELs. Nonlinear X-ray effects can lead to important applications in many research fields. For example, it could lead to instantaneous plasma diagnostics for materials in extreme conditions, as a method for combining atomic-scale structural sensitivity with chemical specificity, or as a probe of electron dynamics in solids on the attosecond (1 as = 10 -18 s) time- and Ångstrom (10 -10 m) length scales. In addition, a detailed understanding of nonlinear X-ray matter interactions is crucial for understanding and extending the limits of structural determination at high intensity such as in serial femto-crystallography. The results could have a profound impact on advanced XFEL light sources such as the LCLS-II.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electronic excitations of α - Fe 2 O 3 heteroepitaxial films measured by resonant inelastic x-ray scattering at the Fe L edge

Resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra of hematite (α-Fe 2 O 3 ) were measured at the Fe L 3 edge for heteroepitaxial thin films which were undoped and doped with 1% Ti, Sn, or Zn, in the energy-loss range in excess of 1 eV to study electronic transitions. The spectra were measured for several momentum transfers q, conducted at both low temperature (T=14 K) and room temperature. While we cannot rule out dispersive features possibly owing to propagating excitations, the coarse envelopes of the general spectra did not appreciably change shape with q, implying that the bulk of the observed L-edge RIXS intensity originates from (mostly) nondispersive ligand field excitations. Summing the RIXS spectra over q and comparing the results at T=14 K to those at T=300 K revealed pronounced temperature effects, including an intensity change and energy shift of the ≈1.4 eV peak, a broadband intensity increase of the 3-4 eV range, and higher energy features. The q-summed spectra and their temperature dependencies are virtually identical for nearly all of the samples with different dopants, save for the temperature dependence of the Ti-doped sample's spectrum, which we attribute to being affected by a large number of free charge carriers. Comparing with magnetization measurements for different temperatures and dopings likewise did not show a clear correlation between the RIXS spectra and the magnetic ordering states. To clarify the excited states, we performed spin multiplet calculations which were in excellent agreement with the RIXS spectra over a wide energy range and provide detailed electronic descriptions of the excited states. Furthermore, the implications of these findings to the photoconversion efficiency of hematite photoanodes is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Causality, unitarity, and the weak gravity conjecture

We consider the shift of charge-to-mass ratio for extremal black holes in the context of effective field theory, motivated by the Weak Gravity Conjecture. We constrain extremality corrections in different regimes subject to unitarity and causality constraints. In the asymptotic IR, we demonstrate that for any supersymmetric theory in flat space, and for all minimally coupled theories, logarithmic running at one loop pushes the Wilson coefficient of certain four-derivative operators to be larger at lower energies, guaranteeing the existence of sufficiently large black holes with Q > M. We identify two exceptional cases of nonsupersymmetric theories involving large numbers of light states and Planck-scale nonminimal couplings, in which the sign of the running is reversed, leading to black holes with negative corrections to Q/M in the deep IR, but argue that these do not rule out extremal black holes as the requisite charged states for the WGC. We separately show that causality and unitarity imply that the leading threshold corrections to the effective action from integrating out massive states, in any weakly coupled theory, can be written as a sum of squares and is manifestly positive for black hole backgrounds. Quite beautifully, the shift in the extremal Q/M ratio is directly proportional to the shift in the on-shell action, guaranteeing that these threshold corrections push Q > M in compliance with the WGC. Our results apply for black holes with or without dilatonic coupling and charged under any number of U(1)s.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anomalous two-photon Compton scattering

Abstract X-ray free-electron lasers can generate radiation pulses with extreme peak intensities at short wavelengths. This enables the investigation of laser–matter interactions in a regime of high fields, yet at a non-relativistic ponderomotive potential, where ordinary rules of light–matter interaction may no longer apply and nonlinear processes are starting to become observable. Despite small cross-sections, first nonlinear effects in the hard x-ray regime have recently been observed in solid targets, including x-ray-optical sum-frequency generation (XSFG), x-ray second harmonic generation (XSHG) and two-photon Compton scattering (2PCS). Nonlinear interactions of bound electrons in the x-ray range are fundamentally different from those dominating at optical frequencies. Whereas in the optical regime nonlinearities are predominantly caused by anharmonicities of the atomic potential in the chemical bonds, x-ray nonlinearities far above atomic resonances are expected to be due to nonlinear oscillations of quasi-free electrons, including inner-shell atomic electrons. While the quasi-free-electron model agrees reasonably well with the experimental data for XSFG and XSHG, 2PCS measurements have led to unexpected results: the energy of the nonlinearly scattered photons from non-relativistic electrons shows a substantial unexpected red shift in addition to the Compton shift that is well beyond that predicted by a nonlinear quantum electrodynamics model for free electrons. A potential explanation for the spectral broadening is based on a previously unexplored scattering process that involves the whole atom rather than just quasi-free electrons. A first simulation that includes the atomic binding potential was successful in describing a broadening of the spectrum of the nonlinearly scattered photons to longer wavelengths for soft x-rays. However, the same model does not show any broadening at hard x-ray wavelengths, which is in agreement with other simulation approaches. To this point no calculation has been able to reproduce the experimentally observed broadening. Here we present further experimental data of 2PCS for an extended parameter range using additional diagnostics. In particular, we present measurements of the electron momentum distribution during the interaction that strongly suggest that the spectral broadening is not caused by an increased plasma temperature. We extend our measurement of the magnitude of the red shift in beryllium to > 1.9 k e V in addition to the Compton shift expected for free electrons and expand the measurement of the angular distribution to include forward scattering angles. We also present first measurements of 2PCS from diamond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Differential equations for cosmological correlators

Cosmological fluctuations retain a memory of the physics that generated them in their spatial correlations. The strength of correlations varies smoothly as a function of external kinematics, which is encoded in differential equations satisfied by cosmological correlation functions. In this work, we provide a broader perspective on the origin and structure of these differential equations. As a concrete example, we study conformally coupled scalar fields in a power-law cosmology. The wavefunction coefficients in this model have integral representations, with the integrands being the product of the corresponding flat-space results and “twist factors” that depend on the cosmological evolution. Similar twisted integrals arise for loop amplitudes in dimensional regularization, and their recent study has led to the discovery of rich mathematical structures and powerful new tools for computing multi-loop Feynman integrals in quantum field theory. The integrals of interest in cosmology are also part of a finite-dimensional basis of master integrals, which satisfy a system of first-order differential equations. We develop a formalism to derive these differential equations for arbitrary tree graphs. The results can be represented in graphical form by associating the singularities of the differential equations with a set of graph tubings. Upon differentiation, these tubings grow in a local and predictive fashion. In fact, a few remarkably simple rules allow us to predict — by hand — the equations for all tree graphs. While the rules of this “kinematic flow” are defined purely in terms of data on the boundary of the spacetime, they reflect the physics of bulk time evolution. We also study the analogous structures in tr ϕ 3 theory, and see some glimpses of hidden structure in the sum over planar graphs. This suggests that there is an autonomous combinatorial or geometric construction from which cosmological correlations, and the associated spacetime, emerge.

Cosmological models↗
DOE OSTI2025

All loop scattering as a counting problem

Abstract This is the first in a series of papers presenting a new understanding of scattering amplitudes based on fundamentally combinatorial ideas in the kinematic space of the scattering data. We study the simplest theory of colored scalar particles with cubic interactions, at all loop orders and to all orders in the topological ’t Hooft expansion. We find novel integral formulas for the amplitudes of this theory, with no trace of the conventional sum over Feynman diagrams, but instead determined by a beautifully simple counting problem attached to any order of the topological expansion. These results represent a significant step forward in the decade-long quest to formulate the fundamental physics of the real world in a radically new language, where the rules of spacetime and quantum mechanics, as reflected in the principles of locality and unitarity, are seen to emerge from deeper mathematical structures.

1/N Expansion↗
DOE OSTI2021

The inflationary wavefunction from analyticity and factorization

Here, we study the analytic properties of tree-level wavefunction coefficients in quasi-de Sitter space. We focus on theories which spontaneously break dS boost symmetries and can produce significant non-Gaussianities. The corresponding inflationary correlators are (approximately) scale invariant, but are not invariant under the full conformal group. We derive cutting rules and dispersion formulas for the late-time wavefunction coefficients by using factorization and analyticity properties of the dS bulk-to-bulk propagator. This gives a unitarity method which is valid at tree-level for general n-point functions and for fields of arbitrary mass. Using the cutting rules and dispersion formulas, we are able to compute n-point functions by gluing together lower-point functions. As an application, we study general four-point, scalar exchange diagrams in the EFT of inflation. We show that exchange diagrams constructed from boost-breaking interactions can be written as a finite sum over residues. Finally, we explain how the dS identities used in this work are related by analytic continuation to analogous identities in Anti-de Sitter space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological parameter forecasts for a CMB-HD survey

We present forecasts on cosmological parameters for a CMB-HD survey. For a $\Lambda$CDM + $N_{eff}$ + $\sum m_\nu$ model, we find $\sigma(n_s) = 0.0013$ and $\sigma(N_{eff}) = 0.014$ using CMB and CMB lensing multipoles in the range of $\ell \in [30, 20000]$, after adding anticipated residual foregrounds, delensing the acoustic peaks, and adding DESI BAO data. This is about a factor of two improvement in ability to probe inflation via $n_s$ compared to precursor CMB surveys. The $N_{eff}$ constraint can rule out light thermal particles back to the end of inflation with 95% CL; for example, it can rule out the QCD axion in a model-independent way assuming the Universe's reheating temperature was high enough that the axion thermalized. We find that delensing the acoustic peaks and adding DESI BAO tightens parameter constraints. We also find that baryonic effects can bias parameters if not marginalized over, and that uncertainties in baryonic effects can increase parameter error bars; however, the latter can be mitigated by including information about baryonic effects from kinetic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich measurements by CMB-HD. The CMB-HD likelihood and Fisher estimation codes used here are publicly available; the likelihood is integrated with Cobaya to facilitate parameter forecasting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disentangling the confounding spectroscopy of C 1 molecules: Without symmetry as a guide, everything is allowed

The spectra of C 1 molecules are confounding in that each of the fundamental vibrational modes transform as the same irreducible representation (A) and hence each band consists of a seemingly random distribution of a-, b-, and c-type transitions. This is in contrast to higher symmetry molecules for which band types are readily deduced by simple symmetry rules. Herein, we present a method to simulate the convoluted rotational contours in the gas-phase spectra of C 1 molecules by combining existing ab initio calculations with Colin Western’s PGOPHER rotational contour program. Specifically, ab initio calculations in the NWC HEM suite of programs were employed to predict the components of the dipole moment derivatives along the principal axes of the moments of inertia. This information was then input into PGOPHER to model the fundamental band contours as a sum of a-, b-, and c-type transitions. This method was applied to simulate the rotational contour spectra of a series of representative C 1 molecules which were then compared against both ab initio stick spectra and experimentally measured broadband IR spectra from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory infrared gas-phase database. In addition to providing further insight beyond what is revealed in a typical stick spectrum, the simulated contours showed good agreement with the measured spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Two-photon above-threshold ionization of helium

Multiphoton ionization provides a clear window into the nature of electron correlations in the helium atom. In the present study, the final-state energy range extends up to the region near the N = 2 and N = 3 ionization thresholds, where two-photon ionization proceeds via continuum intermediate states above the lowest threshold. Our calculations are performed using multichannel quantum defect theory (MQDT) and the streamlined R-matrix method. The sum and integration over all intermediate states in the two-photon ionization amplitude is evaluated using the inhomogeneous R-matrix method developed by Robicheaux and Gao. The seamless connection of that method with MQDT allows us to present high-resolution spectra of the final-state Rydberg resonances. Our analysis classifies the resonances above the N = 2 threshold in terms of their group theory quantum numbers. Furthermore, their dominant decay channels are found to obey the previously conjectured propensity rule far more weakly for these even-parity states than was observed for the odd-parity states relevant to single-photon ionization.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological Neutron Stars Produce Diffuse Axion X-Ray Signatures

Axion-like particles can be abundantly produced through scattering processes in the cores of neutron stars (NSs). If they are ultralight ($m_a \lesssim 10^{-4}$ eV), then they can efficiently convert to detectable photons in the external NS magnetospheres, and if they are heavy ($m_a \gtrsim 1$ eV), then they can decay into photons before reaching Earth. In this work, we search for the resulting X-ray signatures from both of these channels summing over the $\textit{cosmological}$ NS population. We compare the predicted axion-induced X-ray signal to the cosmic X-ray background today as measured by a number of instruments such as NuSTAR, HEAO, Swift, and INTEGRAL. We model the axion-induced signal using NS cooling simulations and magnetic field evolution models. We find no evidence for axions and derive strong constraints for both ultralight and heavy axion scenarios, covering new parameter space for the axion-photon and axion-nucleon couplings. Our results rule out the axion-explanation of the Magnificent Seven X-ray excess from nearby isolated NSs.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dispersion formulas in QFTs, CFTs and holography

We study momentum space dispersion formulas in general QFTs and their applications for CFT correlation functions. We show, using two independent methods, that QFT dispersion formulas can be written in terms of causal commutators. The first derivation uses analyticity properties of retarded correlators in momentum space. The second derivation uses the largest time equation and the defining properties of the time-ordered product. At four points we show that the momentum space QFT dispersion formula depends on the same causal double-commutators as the CFT dispersion formula. At n -points, the QFT dispersion formula depends on a sum of nested advanced commutators. For CFT four-point functions, we show that the momentum space dispersion formula is equivalent to the CFT dispersion formula, up to possible semi-local terms. We also show that the Polyakov-Regge expansions associated to the momentum space and CFT dispersion formulas are related by a Fourier transform. In the process, we prove that the momentum space conformal blocks of the causal double-commutator are equal to cut Witten diagrams. Finally, by combining the momentum space dispersion formulas with the AdS Cutkosky rules, we find a complete, bulk unitarity method for AdS/CFT correlators in momentum space.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online transfer learning strategy for enhancing the scalability and deployment of deep reinforcement learning control in smart buildings

In recent years, advanced control strategies based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) proved to be effective in optimizing the management of integrated energy systems in buildings, reducing energy costs and improving indoor comfort conditions when compared to traditional reactive controllers. However, the scalability and implementation of DRL controllers are still limited since they require a considerable amount of time before converging to a near-optimal solution. This issue is currently addressed in literature through the offline pre-training of the DRL agent. However this solution results in two main critical issues: (1) the need to develop a building surrogate model to perform the training task, and (2) the need to perform a fine-tuning process over several training episodes to obtain a near-optimal control policy. In this context, this paper introduces an Online Transfer Learning (OTL) strategy that exploits two knowledge-sharing techniques, weight-initialization and imitation learning, to transfer a DRL control policy from a source office building to various target buildings in a simulation environment coupling EnergyPlus and Python. A DRL controller based on discrete Soft Actor–Critic (SAC) is trained on the source building to manage the operation of a cooling system consisting of a chiller and a thermal storage. Several target buildings are defined to benchmark the performance of the OTL strategy with that of a Rule-Based Controller (RBC) and two DRL-based control strategies, deployed in offline and online fashion. The strategy adopted for OTL emulates the real world implementation with a simulation process by implementing the transferred DRL agent for a single episode in the target buildings. Target buildings have the same geometrical features and are served by the same energy system as the source building, but differ in terms of weather conditions, electricity price schedules, occupancy patterns, and building envelope efficiency levels. The results show that the OTL strategy can reduce the cumulated sum of temperature violations on average by 50% and 80% respectively when compared to RBC and online DRL while enhancing the energy system operation with electricity cost savings ranging between 20% and 40%. Furthermore, the OTL agent performs slightly worse than the offline DRL controller but it does not require any modeling effort and can be implemented directly on target buildings emulating a real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physicochemical control of solvation and molecular assembly of charged amphiphilic oligomers at air-aqueous interfaces

Hypothesis : Understanding the rules that control the assembly of nanostructured soft materials at interfaces is central to many applications. We hypothesize that electrolytes can be used to alter the hydration shell of amphiphilic oligomers at the air-aqueous interface of Langmuir films, thereby providing a means to control the formation of emergent nanostructures. Experiments : Three representative salts – (NaF, NaCl, NaSCN) were studied for mediating the self-assembly of oligodimethylsiloxane methylimidazolium (ODMS-MIM + ) amphiphiles in Langmuir films. The effects of the different salts on the nanostructure assembly of these films were probed using vibrational sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy and Langmuir trough techniques. Experimental data were supported by atomistic molecular dynamic simulations. Findings : Langmuir trough surface pressure – area isotherms suggested a surprising effect on oligomer assembly, whereby the presence of anions affects the stability of the interfacial layer irrespective of their surface propensities. In contrast, SFG results implied a strong anion effect that parallels the surface activity of anions. These seemingly contradictory trends are explained by anion driven tail dehydration resulting in increasingly heterogeneous systems with entangled ODMS tails and appreciable anion penetration into the complex interfacial layer comprised of headgroups, tails, and interfacial water molecules. These findings provide physical and chemical insight for tuning a wide range of interfacial assemblies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Temporal Coarse Graining for Classical Stochastic Noise in Quantum Systems

Simulations of quantum systems with Hamiltonian classical stochastic noise can be challenging when the noise exhibits temporal correlations over a multitude of time scales, such as for 1/f noise in solid-state quantum information processors. Here we present an approach for simulating Hamiltonian classical stochastic noise that performs temporal coarse-graining by effectively integrating out the high-frequency components of the noise. We focus on the case where the stochastic noise can be expressed as a sum of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Temporal coarse-graining is then achieved by conditioning the stochastic process on a coarse realization of the noise, expressing the conditioned stochastic process in terms of a sum of smooth, deterministic functions and bridge processes with boundaries fixed at zero, and performing the ensemble average over the bridge processes. For Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, the deterministic components capture all dependence on the coarse realization, and the stochastic bridge processes are not only independent but taken from the same distribution with correlators that can be expressed analytically, allowing the associated noise propagators to be precomputed once for all simulations. This combination of noise trajectories on a coarse time grid and ensemble averaging over bridge processes has practical advantages, such as a simple concatenation rule, that we highlight with numerical examples.

Albash, Tameem [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Alb↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron Scattering from 1-Methyl-5-Nitroimidazole: Cross-Sections for Modeling Electron Transport through Potential Radiosensitizers

In this study, we present a complete set of electron scattering cross-sections from 1-Methyl-5-Nitroimidazole (1M5NI) molecules for impact energies ranging from 0.1 to 1000 eV. This information is relevant to evaluate the potential role of 1M5NI as a molecular radiosensitizers. The total electron scattering cross-sections (TCS) that we previously measured with a magnetically confined electron transmission apparatus were considered as the reference values for the present analysis. Elastic scattering cross-sections were calculated by means of two different schemes: The Schwinger multichannel (SMC) method for the lower energies (below 15 eV) and the independent atom model-based screening-corrected additivity rule with interferences (IAM-SCARI) for higher energies (above 15 eV). The latter was also applied to calculate the total ionization cross-sections, which were complemented with experimental values of the induced cationic fragmentation by electron impact. Double differential ionization cross-sections were measured with a reaction microscope multi-particle coincidence spectrometer. Using a momentum imaging spectrometer, direct measurements of the anion fragment yields and kinetic energies by the dissociative electron attachment are also presented. Cross-sections for the other inelastic channels were derived with a self-consistent procedure by sampling their values at a given energy to ensure that the sum of the cross-sections of all the scattering processes available at that energy coincides with the corresponding TCS. This cross-section data set is ready to be used for modelling electron-induced radiation damage at the molecular level to biologically relevant media containing 1M5NI as a potential radiosensitizer. Nonetheless, a proper evaluation of its radiosensitizing effects would require further radiobiological experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-throughput screening tools facilitate calculation of a combined exposure-bioactivity index for chemicals with endocrine activity

High-throughput and computational tools provide a new opportunity to calculate combined bioactivity of exposure to diverse chemicals acting through a common mechanism. We used high throughput in vitro bioactivity data and exposure predictions from the U.S. EPA’s Toxicity and Exposure Forecaster (ToxCast and ExpoCast) to estimate combined estrogen receptor (ER) agonist activity of non-pharmaceutical chemical exposures for the general U.S. population. High-throughput toxicokinetic (HTTK) data provide conversion factors that relate bioactive concentrations measured in vitro (µM), to predicted population geometric mean exposure rates (mg/kg/day). These data were available for 22 chemicals with ER agonist activity and were estimated for other ER bioactive chemicals based on the geometric mean of HTTK values across chemicals. For each chemical, ER bioactivity across ToxCast assays was compared to predicted population geometric mean exposure at different levels of in vitro potency and model certainty. Dose additivity was assumed in calculating a Combined Exposure-Bioactivity Index (CEBI), the sum of exposure/bioactivity ratios. Combined estrogen bioactivity was also calculated in terms of the percent maximum bioactivity of chemical mixtures in human plasma using a concentration-addition model. Estimated CEBIs vary greatly depending on assumptions used for exposure and bioactivity. In general, CEBI values were <1 when using median of the estimated general population chemical intake rates, while CEBI were ≥1 when using the upper 95th confidence bound for those same intake rates for all chemicals. Concentration-addition model predictions of mixture bioactivity yield comparable results. Based on current in vitro bioactivity data, HTTK methods, and exposure models, combined exposure scenarios sufficient to influence estrogen bioactivity in the general population cannot be ruled out. Future improvements in screening methods and computational models could reduce uncertainty and better inform the potential combined effects of estrogenic chemicals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗