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Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗

A Transferable Force Field for Predicting Adsorption and Diffusion of Water in Cationic Zeolites with Coupled Cluster Accuracy

We present a transferable force field for water in proton-exchanged, alkali (Li, Na, K, Rb, and Cs) metal-exchanged, and alkaline-earth (Mg, Ca, Sr, and Ba) metal-exchanged zeolites. The fitting methodology is based on adsorbate–adsorbent interaction energies obtained from periodic density functional theory calculations and corrected using the coupled-cluster method applied to small model clusters. To ensure an accurate prediction of both adsorption and diffusion properties of water, sets of configurations that sample both adsorption sites and intracrystalline hopping transition states were used in the fitting. The quality of the force field is assessed for a wide range of zeolites with different topologies and chemical compositions, demonstrating good agreement between theoretical predictions and experimental measurements of water adsorption and diffusion.

Adsorption↗

Designing a Zn–Ag Catalyst Matrix and Electrolyzer System for CO 2 Conversion to CO and Beyond

CO 2 emissions can be transformed into high-added-value commodities through CO 2 electrocatalysis; however, efficient low-cost electrocatalysts are needed for global scale-up. Inspired by other emerging technologies, the authors report the development of a gas diffusion electrode containing highly dispersed Ag sites in a low-cost Zn matrix. Here, this catalyst shows unprecedented Ag mass activity for CO production: –614 mA cm –2 at 0.17 mg of Ag. Subsequent electrolyte engineering demonstrates that halide anions can further improve stability and activity of the Zn–Ag catalyst, outperforming pure Ag and Au. Membrane electrode assemblies are constructed and coupled to a microbial process that converts the CO to acetate and ethanol. Combined, these concepts present pathways to design catalysts and systems for CO 2 conversion toward sought-after products.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of convective transport in edge and scrape-off-layer plasmas of ADITYA-U tokamak

The 2-D edge plasma fluid transport code, UEDGE has been used to simulate the edge and scrape-off layer regions of circular limiter plasmas of ADITYA-U. The computational mesh defining the limiter geometry of ADITYA-U has been introduced in the UEDGE code through an in-house developed routine. It has successfully been integrated with the UEDGE code and the measured radial profile of electron density (n e ) in the edge region is modelled using the simulations. The plasma discharge for the present study has plasma current I P ~ 130 kA, duration ~ 150 ms, chord-averaged electron density ~ 1.3 x 10 19 m -3 , and central electron temperature ~ 270 eV has been observed. The maximum toroidal magnetic field is ~ 1.2 T. It has been found that an inward convective velocity, v conv ~ 1.5 m/s is required in addition to the constant perpendicular diffusion coefficient, D ⟂ ~ 0.2 m 2 /s to adequately match the measured n e profile in typical discharges of ADITYA-U. The value of D ⟂ ~ 0.2 m 2 /s is found to lie between the estimated neoclassical diffusivity and Bohm diffusivity.

Physics - Plasma physics↗

Demonstration of event position reconstruction based on diffusion in the NEXT-white detector

Noble element time projection chambers are a leading technology for rare event detection in physics, such as for dark matter and neutrinoless double beta decay searches. Time projection chambers typically assign event position in the drift direction using the relative timing of prompt scintillation and delayed charge collection signals, allowing for reconstruction of an absolute position in the drift direction. In this paper, alternate methods for assigning event drift dis tance via quantification of electron diffusion in a pure high pressure xenon gas time projection chamber are explored. Data from the NEXT-White detector demonstrate the ability to achieve good position assignment accuracy for both high and low-energy events. Using point-like energy deposits from 83m Kr calibration electron captures (E ~ 45 keV), the position of origin of low-energy events is determined to 2 cm precision with bias < 1 mm. A convolutional neural network approach is then used to quantify diffusion for longer tracks (E ≥ 1.5 MeV), from radiogenic electrons, yielding a precision of 3 cm on the event barycenter. The precision achieved with these methods indicates the feasibility energy calibrations of better than 1% FWHM at Q ββ in pure xenon, as well as the potential for event fiducialization in large future detectors using an alternate method that does not rely on primary scintillation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Versatile Heat Transfer Module

Development of micro-reactors that can be easily transported to remote areas for civilian or military applications is an immediate focus of U.S. nuclear industry and therefore is being pursued by multiple reactor vendors (e.g. HolosGen LLC, Westinghouse, Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation, URENCO, etc.) and actively supported by DOE-NE, DOE-ARPA-E and by the Department Of Defense (DoD). Very-high-temperature gas-cooled (VHTR) and heat pipe cooled reactor technologies are regarded as promising concepts for microreactors applications since they enable compact power conversion systems and display beneficial inherent safety features. Development of microreactors with enhanced performance must be supported by innovations in nuclear technologies. Several technologies being developed by the microreactor industry are being revisited with material technologies developed at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). Innovative high-temperature compatible solutions are developed to enable advanced thermal-spectrum microreactor designs featuring improved neutronics performance at high-temperature operating conditions to enable high thermal efficiency and economic competitiveness. This report focuses on the Versatile Heat Transfer Module (VHTM) technology that is developed at ANL for heat-transfer in thermal-spectrum microreactors. This technology is built on a liquid alkali metal heat pipe concept while leveraging advanced nuclear material technologies for high-temperature applications at reduced neutronic penalty with potential improvement in inherent safety behavior. The VHTM can be applied to design high-temperature thermal-spectrum microreactor systems with reduced size, weight, uranium enrichment, or increased lifetime. The INFINIT technology deriving from the VHTM enables design of a highly compact long-life microreactor concept for fission surface power (FSP). Demonstration of multiphysics modeling capability was also completed to showcase the added inherent safety benefits obtained with this concept. The VHTM technology remain at an early development stage with low Technology Readiness Level and Manufacturing Readiness Level. The current demonstration of these technologies has focused on manufacturing capability, on performance of the hydrogen diffusion barrier under thermal cycling, while radiation tolerance demonstration is planned. The next step of the demonstration plan will be the assembly of miniature VHTM for high-temperature testing, which can be used as a prototype for future pilot scale demonstration. Such research is critical to pursue development of these technologies that have the clear potential to significantly improve the performance of currently investigated micro-reactors systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Tortuosity measurement and the effects of finite pulse widths on xenon gas diffusion NMR studies of porous media

We have extended the utility of NMR as a technique to probe porous media structure over length scales of approximately 100-2000 microm by using the spin 1/2 noble gas 129Xe imbibed into the system's pore space. Such length scales are much greater than can be probed with NMR diffusion studies of water-saturated porous media. We utilized Pulsed Gradient Spin Echo NMR measurements of the time-dependent diffusion coefficient, D(t), of the xenon gas filling the pore space to study further the measurements of both the pore surface-area-to-volume ratio, S/V(p), and the tortuosity (pore connectivity) of the medium. In uniform-size glass bead packs, we observed D(t) decreasing with increasing t, reaching an observed asymptote of approximately 0.62-0.65D(0), that could be measured over diffusion distances extending over multiple bead diameters. Measurements of D(t)/D(0) at differing gas pressures showed this tortuosity limit was not affected by changing the characteristic diffusion length of the spins during the diffusion encoding gradient pulse. This was not the case at the short time limit, where D(t)/D(0) was noticeably affected by the gas pressure in the sample. Increasing the gas pressure, and hence reducing D(0) and the diffusion during the gradient pulse served to reduce the previously observed deviation of D(t)/D(0) from the S/V(p) relation. The Pade approximation is used to interpolate between the long and short time limits in D(t). While the short time D(t) points lay above the interpolation line in the case of small beads, due to diffusion during the gradient pulse on the order of the pore size, it was also noted that the experimental D(t) data fell below the Pade line in the case of large beads, most likely due to finite size effects.

Non-NASA Center↗

Explainable machine learning for hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys

Hydrogen diffusion in metals and alloys plays an important role in the discovery of new materials for fuel cell and energy storage technology. While analytic models use hand-selected features that have clear physical ties to hydrogen diffusion, they often lack accuracy when making quantitative predictions. Machine learning models are capable of making accurate predictions, but their inner workings are obscured, rendering it unclear which physical features are truly important. To develop interpretable machine learning models to predict the activation energies of hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys, we create a database for physical and chemical properties of the species and use it to fit six machine learning models. Our models achieve root-mean-squared errors between 98–119 meV on the testing data and accurately predict that elemental Ru has a large activation energy, while elemental Cr and Fe have small activation energies. By analyzing the feature importances of these fitted models, we identify relevant physical properties for predicting hydrogen diffusivity. While metrics for measuring the individual feature importances for machine learning models exist, correlations between the features lead to disagreement between models and limit the conclusions that can be drawn. Instead grouped feature importance, formed by combining the features via their correlations, agree across the six models and reveal that the two groups containing the packing factor and electronic specific heat are particularly significant for predicting hydrogen diffusion in metals and random binary alloys. In conclusion, this framework allows us to interpret machine learning models and enables rapid screening of new materials with the desired rates of hydrogen diffusion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Summary of the NASA space photovoltaic research and technology program

Low cost solar cells and arrays with high end-of-life efficiency are evaluated through two approaches: one, to obtain increased device efficiency at no increase in cost and two, to reduce the manufacturing costs of space solar cells and arrays. Technology efforts encompass high efficiency epitaxial cells, high efficiency wraparound contact solar cells, economical diffusion sources, automated cell fabrication and development of easily applied, durable cover glasses. The examination of ion-implanted profile tailored junctions and additional development of screen printed contact technology to cell development are also considered.

Brandhorst, H. W., Jr.↗

Minimum stabilizing energy release for mixing processes

Diffusive operations, which mix the populations of different elements of phase space, can irreversibly transform a given initial state into any of a spectrum of different states from which no further energy can be extracted through diffusive operations. We call these ground states. Here, the lower bound of accessible ground-state energies represents the maximal possible release of energy. This lower bound, sometimes called the diffusively accessible free energy, is of interest in theories of instabilities and wave-particle interactions. On the other hand, the upper bound of accessible ground-state energies has escaped identification as a problem of interest. Yet, as demonstrated here, in the case of a continuous system, it is precisely this upper bound that corresponds to the paradigmatic “quasilinear plateau” ground state of the bump-on-tail distribution. Although for general discrete systems the complexity of calculating the upper bound grows rapidly with the number of states, using techniques adapted from treatments of the lower bound, the upper bound can in fact be computed directly for the three-state discrete system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Unsteady Analyses and Risk Assessment - Part 2

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Design Support of the feasibility of operating conditions and procedures is critical in such cases due to the possibility of startup/shutdown transients, moving shock structures, unsteady shock-boundary layer interactions and engine and diffuser unstart modes that can result in catastrophic failure. Analyses of such systems is difficult due to resolution requirements needed to accurately capture moving shock structures, shock-boundary layer interactions, two-phase flow regimes and engine unstart modes. In a companion paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD, steady analyses advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in the sub-scale A-3 facility. In this paper we will address transient issues with the operation of the facility especially at startup and shutdown, and assess risks related to afterburning due to the interaction of a fuel rich plume with oxygen that is a by-product of the steam ejectors. The primary areas that will be addressed in this paper are: (1) analyses of unstart modes due to flow transients especially during startup/ignition, (2) engine safety during the shutdown process (3) interaction of steam ejectors with the primary plume i.e. flow transients as well as probability of afterburning. In this abstract we discuss unsteady analyses of the engine shutdown process. However, the final paper will include analyses of a staged startup, drawdown of the engine test cell pressure, and risk assessment of potential afterburning in the facility. Unsteady simulations have been carried out to study the engine shutdown process in the facility and understand the physics behind the interactions between the steam ejectors, the test cell and the supersonic diffuser. As a first approximation, to understand the dominant unsteady mechanisms in the engine test cell and the supersonic diffuser, the turning duct in the facility was removed. As the engine loses power a rarefaction wave travels downstream that disrupts the shock cell structure in the supersonic diffuser. Flow from the test cell is seen to expand into the supersonic diffuser section and re-pressurizes the area around the nozzle along with a upstream traveling compression wave that emanates from near the first stage ejectors. Flow from the first stage ejector expands to the center of the duct and a new shock train is formed between the first and second stage ejectors. Both stage ejectors keep the facility pressurized and prevent any large amplitude pressure fluctuations from affecting the engine nozzle. The resultant pressure loads the nozzle experiences in the shutdown process are small.

Ahuja, Vineet↗

A reaction mechanism for plasma electrolysis of AgNO 3 forming silver nanoclusters and nanoparticles

In plasma-driven solution electrolysis (PDSE), gas-phase plasma-produced species interact with an electrolytic solution to produce, for example, nanoparticles. An atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) directed onto a liquid solution containing a metallic salt will promote reduction of metallic ions in solution, generating metallic clusters that nucleate to form nanoparticles. In this article, results from a computational investigation are discussed of a PDSE process in which a radio-frequency APPJ sustained in helium impinges on a silver nitrate solution, resulting in growth of silver nanoparticles. A reaction mechanism was developed and implemented in a global plasma chemistry model to predict nanoparticle growth. To develop the reaction mechanism, density functional theory was used to generate probable silver growth pathways up to Ag 9 . Neutral clusters larger than Ag 9 were classified as nanoparticles. Kinetic reaction rate coefficients for thermodynamically favorable growth pathways were estimated based on an existing, empirically determined base reaction mechanism for smaller Ag particle interactions. These rates were used in conjunction with diffusion-controlled reaction rate coefficients that were calculated for other Ag species. The role of anions in reduction of Agn ions in forming nanoparticles is also discussed. Oxygen containing impurities or admixtures to the helium, air entrainment into the APPJ, and dissociation of saturated water vapor above the solution can produce additional reactive oxygen species in solution, resulting in the production of anions and O 2 – in particular. For a given molarity, delivering a sufficient fluence of reducing species will produce similar nanoparticle densities and sizes for all applied power levels. In conclusion, comparisons are made to alternate models for nanoparticle formation, including charged nanoparticles and use of direct current plasmas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Round 3 Update of Stress Testing Results for Organic Light-Emitting Diode Panels and Luminaires

Organic light-emitting diode (OLED) sources are a potential solid-state lighting technology for use in indoor lighting applications. Some of the advantages offered by OLEDs include thin profiles, low glare, diffuse lighting, and unique form factors. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has released six technical reports focused on OLED technologies to provide information and analysis to the lighting industry. These reports include the evaluation of two different field deployment sites, a market analysis, a tear-down analysis, and two independent assessments of the performance of select commercially available OLED products. This report builds on earlier DOE efforts with OLED technology by updating information about previously benchmarked commercial OLED products. Specifically, this report provides updated findings about the robustness and reliability of commercial OLED products.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reaction–Diffusion Coupling Facilitates the Sequential Precipitation of Metal Ions from Battery Feedstock Solutions

Here, the development of new technologies for chemical separations is urgently needed to meet the surging demand for critical materials that has strained resources and caused environmental challenges. Inspired by the classic Liesegang experiment, we demonstrated the separation of critical metal ions based on the coupling of ion diffusion and precipitation kinetics. For this purpose, a model feedstock solution simulating dissolved battery electrodes was placed on top of a hydrogel loaded with a precipitating agent, namely sodium hydroxide. As the lithium, manganese, cobalt, and nickel ions diffused into the gel, a gradient of precipitates formed along the length of the reactor. Elemental analysis of the spatially distributed precipitates showed the enrichment of nickel near the gel-solution interface, followed by the formation of an almost pure (>96%) manganese product further along the reactor. Optimization experiments revealed that a sodium hydroxide concentration of 10 mM and a gel/solution volume ratio of 2:1 favored efficient separations. The robustness of the method was demonstrated in four out of five feedstock compositions of typically used battery cathodes. Our proof-of-concept experiments present a paradigm for critical materials separations that does not require specialty chemicals, binding agents, membranes, or toxic solvents.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

REBOUND: Reverse Engineering Bidirectional Outflow Under Non-Equilibrium Diffusion

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential for electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. However, the current supply of REEs relies on mining concentrated in a few countries and energy-intensive separations. DOE’s Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program has launched a grand challenge which aims to ensure a sustainable supply of critical REEs by developing innovative and environmentally friendly separation methods. As an alternative to costly and harmful traditional methods, the Non-Equilibrium Transport Driven Separations (NETS) initiative has created a microfluidic Y-channel co-flow method that applies external fields to exploit magneto- and electrohydrodynamic effects for separating dilute REE ions from complex feedstocks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have identified a few operating conditions with promising ion selectivity and separation efficiency. However, challenges remain regarding Y-channel versatility across feedstocks and accurate incorporation of physical phenomena into CFD models. In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity modelling approach which integrates experimental results with CFD simulation to build a surrogate model for the dependence of separation efficiency to variation of design parameters. The surrogate model enables a reinforcement learning (RL) method to adaptively launch CFD and experimental runs, improving model fidelity around optimal Y-channel parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving stability of ALD ZrN thin film coatings over U-Mo dispersion fuel

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) of ZrN is a candidate technology for coating U-Mo dispersion fuel as a diffusion barrier coating. During the early development stages of the coating the ZrN deposition showed to be mechanically unstable and ultimately resulted in spalling. Based on experimental outcomes it was found that instabillity can be eliminated through the introduction of a thin amorphous (a) Al 2 O 3 interlayer coating deposited in between the ~1-μm thick ZrN and the U-Mo. substrate. To elucidate these findings simulations were performed with density functional theory (DFT) to measure work of adhesions at different interfaces while finite element modeling (FEM) was performed to measure the residual stress distribution. DFT indicated that the ZrN coating deposited over (a)-Al 2 O 3 is ~2.5 times stronger when compared to direct deposition over U or UO 2 substrate. While calculations from FEM recognized; (1) large stress concentrations can originate from the irregularly distributed native surface oxides (UO 2 ) over U-Mo and (2) stress concentrations can be reduced if those surface UO 2 can be modified to a uniform layer (achieved after application of a 8 nm (a)-Al 2 O 3 interlayer). These results provided explanations and confirmed the role played by interlayer in eliminating the original mechanical instability of the ZrN.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Noise from undetected sources in Dark Energy Survey images

ABSTRACT For ground-based optical imaging with current CCD technology, the Poisson fluctuations in source and sky background photon arrivals dominate the noise budget and are readily estimated. Another component of noise, however, is the signal from the undetected population of stars and galaxies. Using injection of artifical galaxies into images, we demonstrate that the measured variance of galaxy moments (used for weak gravitational lensing measurements) in Dark Energy Survey (DES) images is significantly in excess of the Poisson predictions, by up to 30 per cent, and that the background sky levels are overestimated by current software. By cross-correlating distinct images of ‘empty’ sky regions, we establish that there is a significant image noise contribution from undetected static sources (US), which, on average, are mildly resolved at DES resolution. Treating these US as a stationary noise source, we compute a correction to the moment covariance matrix expected from Poisson noise. The corrected covariance matrix matches the moment variances measured on the injected DES images to within 5 per cent. Thus, we have an empirical method to statistically account for US in weak lensing measurements, rather than requiring extremely deep sky simulations. We also find that local sky determinations can remove most of the bias in flux measurements, at a small penalty in additional, but quantifiable, noise.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗