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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Restricted by A Historical Review of Strategies and Organization for Restricted Earth Return of Samples from NASA Planetary Missions

Return of samples from the Moon via the Apollo 11, 12 and 14 missions represented NASA's first attempts into conducting what is now known as Restricted Earth Return. When Apollo returned samples from the moon, there were few of the agencies, legal and organizational structures that exist now. A half a century later, the U.S system has seen changes in legal and organizational structures with the appearance of different agencies and legal requirements. During the Apollo era, U.S. legal and organizational structures, assessed threats to the Earth’s biosphere with a priority towards the risks of effects from extraterrestrial pathogens on humans, though the guiding document, the Baylor Protocol, also considered animal and plant models. This presentation focuses on a review of two main questions: Did the return of samples from the Moon happen at a “sweet spot” in time, where the number of requirements and conservatism was commensurate with the scientific knowns and unknowns? Could the emphasis of risk mitigation on human pathogens during the return of extraterrestrial samples be more about human solipsism, leaving us with a blind spot to sources of pathogens, such as fungi, which could lead to an impact to our biosphere, and we humans, via our food chains and agricultural pathways?

planetary protection↗
NASA NTRS2024

PDC25 Epoch 1 Damage Risk Maps Content Key

These maps represent asteroid impact damage estimates modeled for the PDC25 Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise, as part of the 9th AIAA Planetary Defense Conference (PDC2025). This exercise assesses a realistic but fictitious hypothetical scenario, not a real asteroid threat.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2013

Filling the Gaps: The Synergistic Application of Satellite Data for the Volcanic Ash Threat to Aviation

Although significant progress has been made in recent years, estimating volcanic ash concentration for the full extent of the airspace affected by volcanic ash remains a challenge. No single satellite, airborne or ground observing system currently exists which can sufficiently inform dispersion models to provide the degree of accuracy required to use them with a high degree of confidence for routing aircraft in and near volcanic ash. Toward this end, the detection and characterization of volcanic ash in the atmosphere may be substantially improved by integrating a wider array of observing systems and advancements in trajectory and dispersion modeling to help solve this problem. The qualitative aspect of this effort has advanced significantly in the past decade due to the increase of highly complementary observational and model data currently available. Satellite observations, especially when coupled with trajectory and dispersion models can provide a very accurate picture of the 3-dimensional location of ash clouds. The accurate estimate of the mass loading at various locations throughout the entire plume, however improving, remains elusive. This paper examines the capabilities of various satellite observation systems and postulates that model-based volcanic ash concentration maps and forecasts might be significantly improved if the various extant satellite capabilities are used together with independent, accurate mass loading data from other observing systems available to calibrate (tune) ash concentration retrievals from the satellite systems.

Murray, John↗
NASA NTRS1983

A computer simulation of aircraft evacuation with fire

A computer simulation was developed to assess passenger survival during the post-crash evacuation of a transport category aircraft when fire is a major threat. The computer code, FIREVAC, computes individual passenger exit paths and times to exit, taking into account delays and congestion caused by the interaction among the passengers and changing cabin conditions. Simple models for the physiological effects of the toxic cabin atmosphere are included with provision for including more sophisticated models as they become available. Both wide-body and standard-body aircraft may be simulated. Passenger characteristics are assigned stochastically from experimentally derived distributions. Results of simulations of evacuation trials and hypothetical evacuations under fire conditions are presented.

Middleton, V. E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Satellite Breakup Risk Mitigation

Many satellite breakups occur as a result of an explosion of stored energy on-board spacecraft or rocket-bodies. These breakups generate a cloud of tens or possibly hundreds of thousands of debris fragments which may pose a transient elevated threat to spaceflight crews and vehicles. Satellite breakups pose a unique threat because the majority of the debris fragments are too small to be tracked from the ground. The United States Human Spaceflight Program is currently implementing a risk mitigation strategy that includes modeling breakup events, establishing action thresholds, and prescribing corresponding mitigation actions in response to satellite breakups.

Leleux, Darrin P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Hail from Space: Using a Multi-Frequency Passive-Microwave Retrieval to Analyze the Global Climatology and Diurnal Cycle of Severe Hail

Severe hail poses myriad threats to society, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and agriculture. As hail is severe, relatively infrequent, and highly localized, it is difficult to measure in-situ and if left unresolved in models and precipitation retrievals, hail can cause large errors and uncertainties. The difficulty in measuring hail in situ and the inconsistency of surface-based hail reporting drive the motivation to use spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We leverage the scattering signatures of severe hail in spaceborne passive-microwave datasets paired with surface hail reports to construct a multi-frequency hail retrieval using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager (TMI) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We use this retrieval to construct global passive-microwave climatologies of severe hail using the TRMM, GPM, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and extend into the pre-TRMM era to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. We also leverage the sensors in inclined orbits to assess the diurnal variability of severe hail globally and the effect the diurnal cycle has on the detection of hail by sensors in sun-synchronous orbit. The goal is to construct a robust, multi-decade multi-satellite climatology of hail. As part of the NASA Disasters Applied Sciences program, we assess these climatologies against other satellite severe weather datasets and use these climatologies in collaboration with stakeholders and end-users to help them assess risk, and improve the prediction, preparation, and response to severe storms around the world.

Sarah D Bang↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lightning induced currents in aircraft wiring using low level injection techniques

Various techniques were studied to predict the transient current induced into aircraft wiring bundles as a result of an aircraft lightning strike. A series of aircraft measurements were carried out together with a theoretical analysis using computer modeling. These tests were applied to various aircraft and also to specially constructed cylinders installed within coaxial return conductor systems. Low level swept frequency CW (carrier waves), low level transient and high level transient injection tests were applied to the aircraft and cylinders. Measurements were made to determine the transfer function between the aircraft drive current and the resulting skin currents and currents induced on the internal wiring. The full threat lightning induced transient currents were extrapolated from the low level data using Fourier transform techniques. The aircraft and cylinders used were constructed from both metallic and CFC (carbon fiber composite) materials. The results show the pulse stretching phenomenon which occurs for CFC materials due to the diffusion of the lightning current through carbon fiber materials. Transmission Line Matrix modeling techniques were used to compare theoretical and measured currents.

Stevens, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Low LET Radiation Spectrometer for Measuring Particle Doses in Space and Aircraft

This paper presents experimental data that demonstrates the feasibility of fabricating a miniature nuclear particle dosimeter for monitoring doses in aircraft and satellites. The basic instrument is a Low Linear-Energy-Transfer (LET) Radiation Spectrometer (LoLRS) that is designed to measure the energy deposited by particles with low LET values. The heart of the instrument is a Silicon-Lithium Drifted Diode (SLDD). Test results show that the LoLRS can be used to monitor the radiation threat to personnel in flights of space- and aircraft and also to generate a comprehensive data base from aviation and satellite measurements that can contribute to the formulation of more accurate environmental radiation models for dose predictions with reduced uncertainty factors.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Columbia Accident Investigation and The NASA Glenn Ballistic Impact Laboratory Contributions Supporting NASA's Return to Flight

On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia broke apart during reentry, resulting in loss of the vehicle and its seven crewmembers. For the next several months, an extensive investigation of the accident ensued involving a nationwide team of experts from NASA, industry, and academia, spanning dozens of technical disciplines. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB), a group of experts assembled to conduct an investigation independent of NASA, concluded in August, 2003 that the most likely cause of the loss of Columbia and its crew was a breach in the left wing leading edge Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) thermal protection system initiated by the impact of thermal insulating foam that had separated from the orbiters external fuel tank 81 seconds into the mission's launch. During reentry, this breach allowed superheated air to penetrate behind the leading edge and erode the aluminum structure of left wing, which ultimately led to the breakup of the orbiter. The findings of the CAIB were supported by ballistic impact tests, which simulated the physics of External Tank Foam impact on the RCC wing leading edge material. These tests ranged from fundamental material characterization tests to full-scale Orbiter Wing Leading Edge tests. Following the accident investigation, NASA spent the next 18 months focused on returning the shuttle safely to flight. In order to fully evaluate all potential impact threats from the many debris sources on the Space Shuttle during ascent, NASA instituted a significant impact testing program. The results from these tests led to the validation of high-fidelity computer models, capable of predicting actual or potential Shuttle impact events, were used in the certification of STS-114, NASA s Return to Flight Mission, as safe to fly. This presentation will provide a look into the inner workings of the Space Shuttle and a behind the scenes perspective on the impact analysis and testing done for the Columbia Accident Investigation and NASA's Return to Flight programs. In addition, highlights from recent Shuttle missions are presented.

Melis, Matthew E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

McPherson, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting Tech Paper: Modeling Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) Habitat Suitability along the Southern Bhutan Border with NASA Earth Observations

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are a flagship species essential for the functioning of forest ecosystems, and they also have cultural significance in Bhutan. Elephants receive the highest legal protection as listed under Schedule I of the Bhutan Forests and Nature Conservation Act, 1995. Yet, they face threats of extinction due to poaching for ivory as well as the loss and fragmentation of their habitat. Due to the recent clearing of forests and the growing populations in these areas, there has been an increase in incidents of human-elephant conflict. These conflicts have been detrimental to farmer’s annual harvests and livelihoods and have led to retaliatory killing and injury of elephants in southern Bhutan. The DEVELOP Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting team partnered with the Bhutan Foundation and Bhutan Tiger Center to help address this problem. The team integrated NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to acquire information on land cover change and elephant habitat suitability along the southern border of Bhutan. The team utilized Esri ArcGIS Pro and Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) for data analysis, modeling, and visualization. The team used elephant occurrence data and environmental variables to model current habitat suitability for migrating elephant populations. This analysis provided partners with maps to inform decisions about the placement and conservation of elephant corridors and helped build their capacity to use satellite data for future studies and project planning.

Palchen Wangchuk↗
NASA NTRS2020

Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting Project Summary - Modeling Asian Elephant (Elephas Maximus) Habitat Suitability along the Southern Bhutan Border with NASA Earth Observations

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are a flagship species essential for the functioning of forest ecosystems, and they also have cultural significance in Bhutan. Elephants receive the highest legal protection as listed under Schedule I of the Bhutan Forests and Nature Conservation Act, 1995. Yet, they face threats of extinction due to poaching for ivory as well as the loss and fragmentation of their habitat. Due to the recent clearing of forests and the growing populations in these areas, there has been an increase in incidents of human-elephant conflict. These conflicts have been detrimental to farmer’s annual harvests and livelihoods and have led to retaliatory killing and injury of elephants in southern Bhutan. The DEVELOP Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting team partnered with the Bhutan Foundation and Bhutan Tiger Center to help address this problem. The team integrated NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to acquire information on land cover change and elephant habitat suitability along the southern border of Bhutan. The team utilized Esri ArcGIS Pro and Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) for data analysis, modeling, and visualization. The team used elephant occurrence data and environmental variables to model current habitat suitability for migrating elephant populations. This analysis provided partners with maps to inform decisions about the placement and conservation of elephant corridors and helped build their capacity to use satellite data for future studies and project planning.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗
NASA NTRS2016

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

risk↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cracking characteristics of a habitable module pressure wall following orbital debris penetration

All long-duration spacecraft in low-earth-orbit are subject to high speed impacts by meteoroids and pieces of orbital debris. The threat of damage from such impacts is a significant design consideration in the development of long duration earth-orbiting spacecraft. This report presents the results of a study whose objective was to develop an empirical model to predict the magnitude of the various cracking and through-hole creation phenomena accompanying a habitable module penetration. The significance of the work performed is that the model predictions can be fed directly into a survivability analysis to determine whether or not module unzipping would occur under a specific set of impact conditions. The likelihood of module unzipping over a structure's lifetime can also be determined in such an analysis. In addition, effective hole size predictions can be used as part of a survivability analysis to determine the time available for module evacuation prior to the onset of incapacitation due to air loss. Some of the phenomena considered include maximum petal length, maximum tip-to-tip crack distance, depth of petal deformation, number of cracks formed, orientation of the maximum tip-to-tip distance with respect to the inner wall grain direction, and the effective inner wall hole diameter.

Schonberg, William P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modeling Approach to Support Changeability Analysis and Management of Earth Observation Portfolios

Earth observing (EO) mission portfolios provide data on many geophysical parameters that collectively inform our understanding of the Earth system. To observe large-scale climate trends, it is important to collect data on many parameters over time. However, gaps may occur between missions due to formulation complexity, development delays, and uncertain events in operations. These gaps may impact the ability to provide sustained measurements. Developing a balanced EO mission portfolio is key to supporting study of the Earth system. Yet, decision-making at the portfolio level is a complex task because missions often address multiple parameters. Currently, the likelihood of data gaps is often assessed for an individual parameter, but decisions and events can impact data collection for many parameters. This poster introduces a modeling approach that supports management of the many parameter impacts of decisions and uncertain events. The approach provides a foundation for analyzing changeability in EO mission portfolios. Changeability analysis provides insight into a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes caused by decisions or uncertain events. The model is developed to analyze two aspects of changeability, robustness and flexibility, in EO mission portfolios. In context of these portfolios, the authors define robustness as a portfolio’s ability to provide sustained measurements despite future uncertainties, and they define flexibility as the availability of decision alternatives that contribute to parameter coverage at little detriment to the rest of the portfolio. The proposed model characterizes a portfolio’s sensitivity to change by capturing mission-parameter interconnectivity and redundancy in parameter coverage. The model can be analyzed to identify events that can create substantial gaps, thereby revealing focus areas for mitigation efforts. The model can also be analyzed to identify gap mitigation decisions that may improve parameter coverage with little detriment to the rest of the portfolio, thereby revealing favorable pathways for portfolio improvement. Developing a process for identifying these threats and opportunities will be the focus of future work. A parallel poster proposes a standard for visualizing and communicating portfolio-level impacts of decisions and uncertain events.

Lindsey Jacobson↗
NASA NTRS1983

Impact of flying qualities on mission effectiveness for helicopter air combat, volume 1

A computer simulation to investigate the impact of flying qualities on mission effectiveness is described. The objective of the study was to relate the effects of flying qualities, such as precision of flight path control and pilot workload, to the ability of a single Scout helicopter, or helicopter team, to accomplish a specified anti-armor mission successfully. The model of the actual engagement is a Monte Carlo simulation that has the capability to assess the effects of helicopter characteristics, numbers, tactics and weaponization on the force's ability to accomplish a specific mission against a specified threat as a function of realistic tactical factors. A key feature of this program is a simulation of micro-terrain features and their effects on detection, exposure, and masking for nap-of-the-earth (NOE) flight.

Harris, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Central America Regional Climate Change Program: Tools for Your Use

USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team, in partnership with EPA, NASA, Oak Ridge National Lab, and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), have had a significant impact on the region's ability to monitor, mitigate, and adapt to environmental threats. Environmental decision-making tools and data are posted on a website (SERVIR: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.pov/home.html)that provides satellite and geographic data and maps to anybody with an Internet connection. The SERVIR program has been identified as the model for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) - a major international effort to develop a 21st century system for environmental management and disaster response. In coordination with the USAID/EPA program, NASA has developed a GIs tool that enables countries to examine their forest cover and document changes on an annual basis. This information is used in calculating carbon emissions as part of greenhouse gas inventories, but also serves a valuable monitoring function. In addition, USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team in collaboration with EPA are helping countries meet their obligations as signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). EPA is assisting Central American governments to improve the quality of their greenhouse gas emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC through the development of tools and improvements in data quality. New EPA tools developed include software to automatically calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the agricultural and forestry sector inventories, determine key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and document institutional arrangements. Several of these tools are state of the art and are comparable to tools currently used in the U.S.

Irwin, Dan↗