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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Temperature lapse rate and methane in Titan's troposphere

We have reanalyzed the Voyager radio occultation data for Titan, examining two alternative approaches to methane condensation. In one approach, methane condensation is facilitated by the presence of nitrogen because nitrogen lowers the condensation level of a methane/nitrogen mixture. The resulting enhancement in methane condensation lowers the upper limit on surface relative humidity of methane obtained from the Voyager occultation data from 0.7 to 0.6. We conclude that in this case the surface relative humidity of methane lies between 0.08 and 0.6, with values close to 0.6 indicated. In the other approach, methane is allowed to become supersaturated and reaches 1.4 times saturation in the troposphere. In this case, surface humidities up to 100% are allowed by the Voyager occultation data, and thus the upper limit must be set by other considerations. We conclude that if supersaturation is included, then the surface relative humidity of methane can be any value greater than 0.08--unless a deep ocean is present, in which case the surface relative humidity is limited to less than 0.85. Again, values close to 0.6 are indicated. Overall, the tropospheric lapse rate on Titan appears to be determined by radiative equilibrium. The lapse rate is everywhere stable against dry convection, but is unstable to moist convection. This finding is consistent with a supersaturated atmosphere in which condensation-and hence moist convection-is inhibited.

Methane/analysis↗
NASA NTRS1984

A Study of the Adequacy of Quasi-geostrophic Dynamics for Modeling the Effect of Frontal Cyclones on the Larger Scale Flow

The major objectives of this study are to test the validity of quasi-geostrophic (QG) dynamics, compared to primitive equation (PE) dynamics for modeling the effect of cyclone waves on the larger scale flow, and to study the formation of frontal cyclones and the dynamics of occluded frontogenesis. In order to extend the realism of the initial conditions over those used in earlier work of this nature and in order to include strong surface frontal zones in the initial conditions, a horizontal resolution on the order of 100 km between gridpoints is needed. In order to allow for integrations of up to two weeks simulated time and to keep the logistics and cost of the runs feasible, the horizontal domain of the models must be reduced. Based on work concerning polar lows, the tropospheric static stability was reduced and was also allowed to vary in different tropospheric layers. Previous work used a 'standard atmosphere' temperature lapse rate. Stratospheric stability remains unchanged. The use of one of these 'reduced stability' cases, with no surface frontal zone present resulted in the discovery of normal mode perturbations.

Mudrick, S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Para hydrogen equilibration in the atmospheres of the outer planets

The thermodynamic behavior of the atmospheres of the Jovian planets is strongly dependent on the extent to which local thermal equilibration of the ortho and para states of molecular hydrogen is achieved. Voyager IRIS data from Jupiter imply substantial departures of the para hydrogen fraction from equilibrium in the upper troposphere at low latitudes, but with values approaching equilibrium at higher latitudes. Data from Saturn are less sensitive to the orth-para ratio, but suggest para hydrogen fractions near the equilibrium value. Above approximately the 200 K temperature level, para hydrogen conversion can enhance the efficiency of convection, resulting in a substantial increase in overturning times on all of the outer planets. Currently available data cannot definitively establish the ortho-para ratios in the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune, but suggest values closer to local equilibrium than to the 3.1 normal ratio. Modeling of sub-millimeter wavelength measurements of these planets suggest thermal structures with frozen equilibrium lapse rates in their convective regions.

Conrath, Barney J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Galileo Probe Measurements of Thermal and Solar Radiation Fluxes in the Jovian Atmosphere

The Galileo probe net flux radiometer (NFR) measured radiation fluxes in Jupiter's atmosphere from about 0.44 to 14 bars, using five spectral channels to separate solar and thermal components. Onboard calibration results confirm that the NFR responded to radiation approximately as expected. NFR channels also responded to a superimposed thermal perturbation, which can be approximately removed using blind channel measurements and physical constraints. Evidence for the expected NH3 cloud was seen in the spectral character of spin-induced modulations of the direct solar beam signals. These results are consistent with an overlying cloud of small NH3 ice particles (0.5-0.75 microns in radius) of optical depth 1.5-2 at 0.5 microns. Such a cloud would have so little effect on thermal fluxes that NFR thermal channels provide no additional constraints on its properties. However, evidence for heating near 0.45 bar in the NFR thermal channels would seem to require either an additional opacity source beyond this small-particle cloud, implying a heterogeneous cloud structure to avoid conflicts with solar modulation results, or a change in temperature lapse rate just above the probe measurements. The large thermal flux levels imply water vapor mixing ratios that are only 6% of solar at 10 bars, but possibly increasing with depth, and significantly subsaturated ammonia at pressures less than 3 bars. If deep NH3 mixing ratios at the probe entry site are 3-4 times ground-based inferences, as suggested by probe radio signal attenuation, then only half as much water is needed to match NFR observations. No evidence of a water cloud was seen near the 5-bar level. The 5-microns thermal channel detected the presumed NH4SH cloud base near 1.35 bars. Effects of this cloud were also seen in the solar channel upflux measurements but not in the solar net fluxes, implying that the cloud is a conservative scatterer of sunlight. The minor thermal signature of this cloud is compatible with particle radii near 3 gm, but it cannot rule out smaller particles. Deeper than about 3 bars, solar channels indicate unexpectedly large absorption of sunlight at wavelengths longer than 0.6 microns, which might be due to unaccounted-for absorption by NH3 between 0.65 and 1.5 microns.

Sromovsky, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Galileo Probe Measurements of Thermal and Solar Radiation Fluxes in the Jovian Atmosphere

The Galileo probe net flux radiometer (NFR) measured radiation fluxes in Jupiter's atmosphere from about 0.44 to 14 bars, using five spectral channels to separate solar and thermal components. Onboard calibration results confirm that the NFR responded to radiation approximately as expected. NFR channels also responded to a superimposed thermal perturbation, which can be approximately removed using blind channel measurements and physical constraints. Evidence for the expected NH3 cloud was seen in the spectral character of spin-induced modulations of the direct solar beam signals. These results are consistent with an overlying cloud of small NH3 ice particles (0.5-0.75 microns in radius) of optical depth 1.5-2 at 0.5 microns. Such a cloud would have so little effect on thermal fluxes that NFR thermal channels provide no additional constraints on its properties. However, evidence for heating near 0.45 bar in the NFR thermal channels would seem to require either an additional opacity source beyond this small-particle cloud, implying a heterogeneous-cloud structure to avoid conflicts with solar modulation results, or a change in temperature lapse rate just above the probe measurements. The large thermal flux levels imply water vapor mixing ratios that are only 6% of solar at 10 bars, but possibly increasing with depth, and significantly subsaturated ammonia at pressures less than 3 bars. If deep NH3 mixing ratios at the probe entry site are 3-4 times ground-based inferences, as suggested by probe radio signal attenuation, then only half as much water is needed to match NFR observations. No evidence of a water cloud was seen near the 5-bar level. The 5 microns thermal channel detected the presumed NH4SH cloud base near 1.35 bars. Effects of this cloud were also seen in the solar channel upflux measurements but not in the solar net fluxes, implying that the cloud is a conservative scatterer of sunlight. The minor thermal signature of this cloud is compatible with particle radii near 3 microns, but it cannot rule out smaller particles. Deeper than about 3 bars, solar channels indicate unexpectedly large absorption of sunlight at wavelengths longer than 0.6 microns, which might be due to unaccounted-for absorption by NH3 between 0.65 and 1.5 microns.

Sromovsky, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Simultaneous rocket and MST radar observation of an internal gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere

In June, 1983, the Structure and Atmospheric Turbulence Environment (STATE) rocket and Poker Flat Mesophere-Stratosphere-Troposphere radar campaign was conducted to measure the interaction between turbulence, electron density and electron density gradient that has produced unusually strong MST radar echoes from the summer mesosphere over Poker Flat, Alaska. Analysis or radar wind measurements and a concurrent wind and temperature profile obtained from a rocket probe carrying a three-axis accelerometer are given. The two data sets provide a fairly complete (and in some cases, redundant) picture of the breaking (or more correctly, the saturation) of a large-amplitude, low-frequency, long-wavelength internal gravity wave. The data show that small-scale turbulence and small-scale wave intensity is greatest at those altitudes where the large-scale wave-induced temperature lapse rate is most negative or most nearly unstable, but the wind shear due to the large-scale wave is a minimum. A brief review of linear gravity-wave theory is presented as an aid to the identification of the gravity-wave signature in the radar and rocket data. Analysis of the time and height cross sections of wind speed and turbulence intensity observed by the Poker Flat MST radar follows. Then, the vertical profile of temperature and winds measured by a rocket probe examined. Finally, the use of the independent data sets provided by the rocket and the radar are discussed and implications for theories of wave saturation are presented.

Smith, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Paleoatmospheric temperature structure

Radiative equilibrium and radiative convective temperature profiles for the earth's evolving atmosphere have been calculated. If the atmosphere evolved from one rich in carbon dioxide, and deficient in oxygen, to its present composition, the temperature structure showed considerable change. The models of 3 to 4 billion years ago display steadily decreasing temperatures with altitude, being 185 K at pressures associated with the present-day upper stratosphere. A lapse rate feature similar to the present-day tropopause is not indicated until about 1 billion years ago; but the stratospheric region is approximately 15 K colder than presently found at comparable pressures. Surface temperatures approximately 10 K warmer than at present existed until nearly 1 billion years ago. When the oxygen content exceeded roughly 0.1 times the present level, surface temperatures began to decrease. If biological processes are important to carbon dioxide - ozone variations, such as has been suggested during the Ice Ages, then estimates of surface temperature should include the effects of both gases.

Morss, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Structure of Titan's Atmosphere from Cassini Radio Occultations

We present results from the two radio occultations of the Cassini spacecraft by Titan in 2006, which probed mid-southern latitudes. Three of the ingress and egress soundings occurred within a narrow latitude range, 31.34 deg S near the surface, and the fourth at 52.8 deg S. Temperature - altitude profiles for all four occultation soundings are presented, and compared with the results of the Voyager 1 radio occultation (Lindal et al., 1983), the HASI instrument on the Huygens descent probe (Fulchignoni et al., 2005), and Cassini CIRS results (Flasar et al., 2005; Achterberg et al., 2008b). Sources of error in the retrieved temperature - altitude profiles are also discussed, and a major contribution is from spacecraft velocity errors in the reconstructed ephemeris. These can be reduced by using CIRS data at 300 km to make along-track adjustments of the spacecraft timing. The occultation soundings indicate that the temperatures just above the surface at 31-34 deg S are about 93 K, while that at 53 deg S is about 1 K colder. At the tropopause, the temperatures at the lower latitudes are all about 70 K, while the 53 deg S profile is again 1 K colder. The temperature lapse rate in the lowest 2 km for the two ingress (dawn) profiles at 31 and 33 deg S lie along a dry adiabat except within approximately 200m of the surface, where a small stable inversion occurs. This could be explained by turbulent mixing with low viscosity near the surface. The egress profile near 34 deg S shows a more complex structure in the lowest 2 km, while the egress profile at 53 deg S is more stable.

Schinder, Paul J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Agee, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Photochemical model for NH3 in an early Martian atmosphere

A warm and wet climate scenario for early Mars has been explained by invoking a 5-bar CO2 atmosphere; however, Kasting has shown that CO2 will condense in the Martian atmosphere at these pressures. The formation of CO2 clouds will reduce the convection lapse rate and reduce the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. It is possible that additional greenhouse gases such as methane and ammonia were present in the early Mars atmosphere. We are using a one dimensional photochemical model to estimate the magnitude of the ammonia source required to maintain a given ammonia concentration in a dense CO2 atmosphere. Because CO2 is 2.5 times more efficient at Rayleigh scattering than Earth's N2 atmosphere, we anticipate increased scattering opacities and decreased photolytic destruction rates of ammonia on early Mars. The reduced gravity on Mars means that a 1 bar atmosphere will be approximately 3 times as thick as on Earth. It is possible that ammonia could have been shielded from photolysis by hydrocarbon aerosols which form as a product of methane photolysis.

Brown, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in CloudSat/CALIPSO Data and GISS GCM Simulations

The relationship between convective penetration depth and tropospheric humidity is central to recent theories of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It has been suggested that general circulation models (GCMs) poorly simulate the MJO because they fail to gradually moisten the troposphere by shallow convection and simulate a slow transition to deep convection. CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data are analyzed to document the variability of convection depth and its relation to water vapor during the MJO transition from shallow to deep convection and to constrain GCM cumulus parameterizations. Composites of cloud occurrence for 10MJO events show the following anticipatedMJO cloud structure: shallow and congestus clouds in advance of the peak, deep clouds near the peak, and upper-level anvils after the peak. Cirrus clouds are also frequent in advance of the peak. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EarthObserving System (EOS) (AMSR-E) columnwater vapor (CWV) increases by;5 mmduring the shallow- deep transition phase, consistent with the idea of moisture preconditioning. Echo-top height of clouds rooted in the boundary layer increases sharply with CWV, with large variability in depth when CWV is between;46 and 68 mm. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud classifications reproduce these climatological relationships but correctly identify congestus-dominated scenes only about half the time. A version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2) GCM with strengthened entrainment and rain evaporation that produces MJO-like variability also reproduces the shallow-deep convection transition, including the large variability of cloud-top height at intermediate CWV values. The variability is due to small grid-scale relative humidity and lapse rate anomalies for similar values of CWV. 1.

DelGenio, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective regions. The positive coupling between SST and the radiative warming of the surface by the water vapor greenhouse effect is also shown to exist on interannual time scales.

Inamdar, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Speed of mental processing in the middle of the night

This study aimed to determine whether human mental processing actually slows down during the night hours, separately from the previously documented microsleeps, lapses in attention, and general slowing of motor responses. Eighteen healthy young adults were studied during 36 hours of constant wakeful bedrest. Every 2 hours, they performed a logical reasoning task. Items phrased in the negative voice took reliably longer to respond to than items phrased in the positive voice, indicating the need for more mental processing in those items. By subtracting "negative" from "positive" reaction times at each time of day, we were able to plot a circadian rhythm in the time taken for this extra mental processing to be done separately from microsleeps, psychomotor slowing, and inattention. The extra mental processing took longer at night and on the day following sleep loss than it did during the day before the sleep loss, suggesting that human mental processing slows down during the night under sleep deprivation.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1975

Air motion determination by tracking humidity patterns in isentropic layers

Determining air motions by tracking humidity patterns in isentropic layers was investigated. Upper-air rawinsonde data from the NSSL network and from the AVE-II pilot experiment were used to simulate temperature and humidity profile data that will eventually be available from geosynchronous satellites. Polynomial surfaces that move with time were fitted to the mixing-ratio values of the different isentropic layers. The velocity components of the polynomial surfaces are part of the coefficients that are determined in order to give an optimum fitting of the data. In the mid-troposphere, the derived humidity motions were in good agreement with the winds measured by rawinsondes so long as there were few or no clouds and the lapse rate was relatively stable. In the lower troposphere, the humidity motions were unreliable primarily because of nonadiabatic processes and unstable lapse rates. In the upper troposphere, the humidity amounts were too low to be measured with sufficient accuracy to give reliable results. However, it appears that humidity motions could be used to provide mid-tropospheric wind data over large regions of the globe.

Mancuso, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Properties from CERES-MODIS Edition 4 and DOE ARM AMF Measurements at the Azores

Marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties derived from the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project using Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are compared with observations taken at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility at the Azores (AMF-Azores) site from June 2009 through December 2010. Cloud properties derived from ARM ground-based observations were averaged over a 1 h interval centered at the satellite overpass time, while the CERES-MODIS (CM) results were averaged within a 30 km×30 km grid box centered over the Azores site. A total of 63 daytime and 92 nighttime single-layered overcast MBL cloud cases were selected from 19 months of ARM radar-lidar and satellite observations. The CM cloud top/base heights (Htop/Hbase) were determined from cloud top/base temperatures (Ttop/Tbase) using a regional boundary layer lapse rate method. For daytime comparisons, the CM-derived Htop (Hbase), on average, is 0.063 km (0.068 km) higher (lower) than its ARM radar-lidar-observed counterpart, and the CM-derived Ttop and Tbase are 0.9 K less and 2.5 K greater than the surface values with high correlations (R(sup 2) = 0.82 and 0.84, respectively). In general, the cloud top comparisons agree better than the cloud base comparisons, because the CM cloud base temperatures and heights are secondary products determined from cloud top temperatures and heights. No significant day-night difference was found in the analyses. The comparisons of MBL cloud microphysical properties reveal that when averaged over a 30 km× 30 km area, the CM-retrieved cloud droplet effective radius (re) at 3.7 micrometers is 1.3 micrometers larger than that from the ARM retrievals (12.8 micrometers), while the CM-retrieved cloud liquid water path (LWP) is 13.5 gm( exp -2) less than its ARM counterpart (114.2 gm( exp-2) due to its small optical depth (9.6 versus 13.7). The differences are reduced by 50% when the CM averages are computed only using the MODIS pixel nearest the AMF site. Using the effective radius retrieved using 2.1 micrometers channel to calculate LWP can reduce the difference between the CM and ARM microwave radiometer retrievals from 13.7 to 2.1 gm2. The 10% differences between the ARM and CERES-MODIS LWP and r(sub e) retrievals are within the uncertainties of the ARM LWP (approximately 20gm( exp -2)) and r(sub e) (approximately 10%) retrievals; however, the 30% difference in optical depth is significant. Possible reasons contributing to this discrepancy are increased sensitivities in optical depth from both surface retrievals when τ is approximately 10 and topography. The τ differences vary with wind direction and are consistent with the island orography.Much better agreement in τ is obtained when using only those data taken when the wind is from the northeast, where topographical effects on the sampled clouds are minimal.

Xi, Baike↗
NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of CERES-MODIS Stratus Cloud Properties with Ground-Based Measurements at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Overcast stratus cloud properties derived for the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy system (CERES) Project using Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are compared with observations taken at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site from March 2000 through December 2004. Retrievals from ARM surface-based data were averaged over a 1-hour interval centered at the time of each satellite overpass, and the CERES-MODIS cloud properties were averaged within a 30-km x 30 km box centered on the ARM SGP site. Two datasets were analyzed: all of the data (ALL) which include multilayered, single-layered, and slightly broken stratus decks and a subset, single-layered unbroken decks (SL). The CERES-MODIS effective cloud heights were determined from effective cloud temperature using a lapse rate method with the surface temperature specified as the 24-h mean surface air temperature. For SL stratus, they are, on average, within the ARM radar-lidar estimated cloud boundaries and are 0.534 +/- 0.542 km and 0.108 +/- 0.480 km lower than the cloud physical tops and centers, respectively, and are comparable for day and night observations. The mean differences and standard deviations are slightly larger for ALL data, but not statistically different to those of SL data. The MODIS-derived effective cloud temperatures are 2.7 +/- 2.4 K less than the surface-observed SL cloud center temperatures with very high correlations (0.86-0.97). Variations in the height differences are mainly caused by uncertainties in the surface air temperatures, lapse rates, and cloud-top height variability. The biases are mainly the result of the differences between effective and physical cloud top, which are governed by cloud liquid water content and viewing zenith angle, and the selected lapse rate, -7.1 K km(exp -1). Based on a total of 43 samples, the means and standard deviations of the differences between the daytime Terra and surface retrievals of effective radius r(sub e), optical depth, and liquid water path for SL stratu are 0.1 +/- 1.9 micrometers (1.2 +/- 23.5%), -1.3 +/- 9.5 (-3.6 +/-26.2%), and 0.6 +/- 49.9 gm (exp -2) (0.3 +/- 27%), respectively, while the corresponding correlation coefficients are 0.44, 0.87, and 0.89. For Aqua, they are 0.2 +/- 1.9 micrometers (2.5 +/- 23.4%), 2.5 +/- 7.8 (7.8 +/- 24.3%), and 28.1 +/- 52.7 gm (exp -2) (17.2 +/- 32.2%), as well as 0.35, 0.96, and 0.93 from a total of 21 cases. The results for ALL cases are comparable. Although a bias in R(sub e) was expected because the satellite retrieval of effective radius only represents the top of the cloud, the surface-based radar retrievals revealed that the vertical profile of r(sub e) is highly variable with smaller droplets occurring at cloud top in some cases. The larger bias in optical depth and liquid water path for Aqua is due, at least partially, to differences in the Terra and Aqua MODIS visible channel calibrations. methods for improving the cloud-top height and microphysical property retrievals are suggested.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stabilized NADH as a Countermeasure for Jet Lag

Current remedies for jet lag (phototherapy, melatonin, stimulant, and sedative medications) are limited in efficacy and practicality. The efficacy of a stabilized, sublingual form of reduced nicotin amide adenine dinucleotide (NADH, ENADAlert, Menuco Corp.) as a countermeasure for jet lag was examined. Because NADH increases cellular production of ATP and facilitates dopamine synthesis, it may counteract the effects of jet lag on cognitive functioning and sleepiness. Thirty-five healthy, employed subjects participated in this double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Training and baseline testing were conducted on the West Coast before subjects flew overnight to the East Coast, where they would experience a 3-hour time difference. Upon arrival, individuals were randomly assigned to receive either 20 mg of sublingual stabilized ADH (n=18) or identical placebo tablets (n=17). All participants completed computer-administered tests (including CogScreen7) to assess changes in cognitive functioning, mood, and sleepiness in the morning and afternoon. Jet lag resulted in increased sleepiness for over half the participants and deterioration of cognitive functioning for approximately one third. The morning following the flight, subjects experienced lapses of attention in addition to disruptions in working memory, divided attention, and visual perceptual speed. Individuals who received NADH performed significantly better on 5 of 8 cognitive and psychomotor test measures (P less than or equal to 0.5) and showed a trend for better performance on the other three measures (P less than or equal to .l0). Subjects also reported less sleepiness compared with those who received placebo. No adverse effects were observed with NADH treatment. Stabilized NADH significantly reduced jet lag-induced disruptions of cognitive functioning, was easily administered, and was found to have no adverse side effects.

Kay, Gary G.↗