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DOE OSTI2021

Classified library celebrates two-year anniversary print your own commemorative history posters

Today is the National Security Research Center’s second anniversary. These two years, though, have been eight decades in the making, said NSRC Director Riz Ali. “We opened our doors in 2019, but the Center’s beginnings date back to World War II when J. Robert Oppenheimer created the Lab in Los Alamos to develop the first-ever nuclear weapons,” Ali said. “An important part of opening the Lab included standing up a technical reports library. Since then, we have amassed millions of holdings and today we are one of the top research institutions in the country.” What had long-been a repository of classified archival materials is today a dynamic, vibrant library that outsizes the collections of other similar research libraries around the country. Today, the NSRC houses the Laboratory’s classified nuclear weapons research, data and reports, as well as unclassified historical artifacts – the stories, photos, films and more from the people who have been a part of the Lab from the start.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD) Development Plan

Past sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFR) were built with an active experimental program in place to support the design and development work. Most of the experimental facilities in the United States that were important for SFR design were shutdown in the 1980s and 1990s. Reactor licensing and construction requires any reactor design to be verified against existing reactor facilities or experimental measurements. With the absence of those experimental facilities, modern SFR projects must rely on historical measurements to demonstrate that the engineering modeling software and data being used for the new reactor design work are reliable. There has been a considerable push in the last 6 years by both DOE and commercial companies to obtain historical experimental measurements that are relevant for SFRs, in particular those with features that are important for the new reactor designs of interest. The zero power reactor experiments carried out at Argonne National Laboratory’s critical facilities (ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR) from the 1950s to the 1980s are some of the best reactor physics experiments on SFR technology that are available today. Of particular interest today are the ZPPR-15 measurements done at the ZPPR facility for the Integral Fast Reactor project in the 1980s as they are in line with most commercial and DOE interests today. In the past 10 years, the measurements done on ZPPR-15 have been processed into both Monte Carlo (MCNP) and deterministic models (MC2-3 and DIF3D) useable for validating the engineering modeling software for key parts of the SFR design work. To achieve this, a detailed model description must be created for the experiment and the experimental measurement that the engineering modeling software is to reproduce. Then, an assessment of the uncertainty on the measured quantity which considers all of the sources of uncertainty in defining the model must be obtained and documented. The models created for ZPPR-15 provide the best validation basis available today for neutronics modeling software. Reference 2 is a good resource to understand how these models were built and how the uncertainties on the measured quantities were derived. The intention of the Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD), hosted at frdb.ne.anl.gov, is to make available the experimental measurements and models that have been constructed to-date. Though ZPPR-15 measurements are the primary data requested for validation needs, other measurements on ZPPR, ZPR-6, and ZPR-9 in support of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) and Fast Test Reactor (FFTF) should also be considered important for future software validation needs. In this manuscript, the details of available measurements on ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR facilities are summarized, and a general organization of the web interface is displayed. Many of the documents associated with the measurements are export controlled information so access to the database will also have to be controlled.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Automating analog design: Taming the shrew

The pace of progress in the design of integrated circuits continues to amaze observers inside and outside of the industry. Three decades ago, a 50 transistor chip was a technological wonder. Fifteen year later, a 5000 transistor device would 'wow' the crowds. Today, 50,000 transistor chips will earn a 'not too bad' assessment, but it takes 500,000 to really leave an impression. In 1975 a typical ASIC device had 1000 transistors, took one year to first samples (and two years to production) and sold for about 5 cents per transistor. Today's 50,000 transistor gate array takes about 4 months from spec to silicon, works the first time, and sells for about 0.02 cents per transistor. Fifteen years ago, the single most laborious and error prone step in IC design was the physical layout. Today, most IC's never see the hand of a layout designer: and automatic place and route tool converts the engineer's computer captured schematic to a complete physical design using a gate array or a library of standard cells also created by software rather than by designers. CAD has also been a generous benefactor to the digital design process. The architect of today's digital systems creates the design using an RTL or other high level simulator. Then the designer pushes a button to invoke the logic synthesizer-optimizer tool. A fault analyzer checks the result for testability and suggests where scan based cells will improve test coverage. One obstinate holdout amidst this parade of progress is the automation of analog design and its reduction to semi-custom techniques. This paper investigates the application of CAD techniques to analog design.

Barlow, A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Digital Linear Tape (DLT) technology and product family overview

The demand that began a couple of years ago for increased data storage capacity continues. Peripheral Strategies (a Santa Barbara, California, Storage Market Research Firm) projects the amount of data stored on the average enterprise network will grow by 50 percent to 100 percent per year. Furthermore, Peripheral Strategies says that a typical mid-range workstation system containing 30GB to 50GB of storage today will grow at the rate of 50 percent per year. Dan Friedlander, a Boulder, Colorado-based consultant specializing in PC-LAN backup, says, 'The average NetWare LAN is about 8GB, but there are many that have 30GB to 300GB.....' The substantial growth of storage requirements has created various tape technologies that seek to satisfy the needs of today's and, especially, the next generations's systems and applications. There are five leading tape technologies in the market today: QIC (Quarter Inch Cartridge), IBM 3480/90, 8mm, DAT (Digital Audio Tape) and DLT (Digital Linear Tape). Product performance specifications and user needs have combined to classify these technologies into low-end, mid-range, and high-end systems applications. Although the manufacturers may try to position their products differently, product specifications and market requirements have determined that QIC and DAT are primarily low-end systems products while 8mm and DLT are competing for mid-range systems applications and the high-end systems space, where IBM compatibility is not required. The 3480/90 products seem to be used primarily in the IBM market, for interchangeability purposes. There are advantages and disadvantages for each of the tape technologies in the market today. We believe that DLT technology offers a significant number of very important features and specifications that make it extremely attractive for most current as well as emerging new applications, such as Hierarchical Storage Management (HSM). This paper will demonstrate why we think that the DLT technology and family of DLT products will become the technology of choice for most new applications in the mid-range and high-end (non-IBM) markets.

Lignos, Demetrios↗

NASA NTRS1994

Certification of tactics and strategies in aviation

The paper suggests that the 'tactics and strategies' notion is a highly suitable paradigm to describe the cognitive involvement of human operators in advanced aviation systems (far more suitable than classical functional analysis), and that the workload and situational awareness of operators are intimately associated with the planning and execution of their tactics and strategies. If system designers have muddled views about the collective tactics and strategies to be used during operation, they will produce sub-optimum designs. If operators use unproven and/or inappropriate tactics and strategies, the system may fail. The author wants to make a point that, beyond certification of people or system designs, there may be a need to go into more detail and examine (certify?) the set of tactics and strategies (i.e., the Operational Concept) which makes the people and systems perform as expected. The collective tactics and strategies determine the information flows and situational awareness which exists in organizations and composite human-machine systems. The available infrastructure and equipment (automation) enable these information flows and situational awareness, but are at the same time the constraining factor. Frequently, the tactics and strategies are driven by technology, whereas we would rather like to see a system designed to support an optimized Operational Concept, i.e., to support a sufficiently coherent, cooperative and modular set of anticipation and planning mechanisms. Again, in line with the view of MacLeod and Taylor (1993), this technology driven situation may be caused by the system designer's and operator job designer's over-emphasis on functional analysis (a mechanistic engineering concept), at the expense of a subject which does not seem to be well understood today: the role of the (human cognitive and/or automated) tactics and strategies which are embedded in composite human-machine systems. Research would be needed to arrive at a generally accepted 'planning theory' which can elevate the analysis, description and design of tactics and strategies from today's cottage industry methods to an engineering discipline. The available infrastructure and equipment (automation) enable these information flows and situational awareness, but are at the same time the constraining factor. Frequently, the tactics and strategies are driven by technology, whereas we would rather like to see a system designed to support an optimized Operational Concept, i.e., to support a sufficiently coherent, cooperative and modular set of anticipation and planning mechanisms. Again, in line with the view of MacLeod and Taylor (1993), this technology driven situation may be caused by the system designer's and operator job designer's over-emphasis on functional analysis (a mechanistic engineering concept), at the expense of a subject which does not seem to be well understood today: the role of the (human cognitive and/or automated) tactics and strategies which are embedded in composite human-machine systems. Research would be needed to arrive at a generally accepted 'planning theory' which can evaluate the analysis, description and design of tactics and strategies from today's cottage industry methods to an engineering discipline.

Koelman, Hartmut↗

NASA NTRS2002

Implementing Production Grids

We have presented the essence of experience gained in building two production Grids, and provided some of the global context for this work. As the reader might imagine, there were a lot of false starts, refinements to the approaches and to the software, and several substantial integration projects (SRB and Condor integrated with Globus) to get where we are today. However, the point of this paper is to try and make it substantially easier for others to get to the point where Information Power Grids (IPG) and the DOE Science Grids are today. This is what is needed in order to move us toward the vision of a common cyber infrastructure for science. The author would also like to remind the readers that this paper primarily represents the actual experiences that resulted from specific architectural and software choices during the design and implementation of these two Grids. The choices made were dictated by the criteria laid out in section 1. There is a lot more Grid software available today that there was four years ago, and various of these packages are being integrated into IPG and the DOE Grids. However, the foundation choices of Globus, SRB, and Condor would not be significantly different today than they were four years ago. Nonetheless, if the GGF is successful in its work - and we have every reason to believe that it will be - then in a few years we will see that the 28 functions provided by these packages will be defined in terms of protocols and MIS, and there will be several robust implementations available for each of the basic components, especially the Grid Common Services. The impact of the emerging Web Grid Services work is not yet clear. It will likely have a substantial impact on building higher level services, however it is the opinion of the author that this will in no way obviate the need for the Grid Common Services. These are the foundation of Grids, and the focus of almost all of the operational and persistent infrastructure aspects of Grids.

Johnston, William E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

[Activities of Bay Area Research Corporation]

During the final year of this effort the HALFSHEL code was converted to work on a fast single processor workstation from it s parallel configuration. This was done because NASA Ames NAS facility stopped supporting space science and we no longer had access to parallel computer time. The single processor version of HALFSHEL was upgraded to address low density cells by using a a 3-D SOR solver to solve the equation Delta central dot E = 0. We then upgraded the ionospheric load packages to provide a multiple species load of the ionosphere out to 1.4 Rm. With these new tools we began to perform a series of simulations to address the major topic of this research effort; determining the loss rate of O(sup +) and O2(sup +) from Mars. The simulations used the nominal Parker spiral field and in one case used a field perpendicular to the solar wind flow. The simulations were performed for three different solar EUV fluxes consistent with the different solar evolutionary states believed to exist before today. The 1 EUV case is the nominal flux of today. The 3 EUV flux is called Epoch 2 and has three times the flux of todays. The 6 EUV case is Epoch 3 and has 6 times the EUV flux of today.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Small Aircraft Transportation System Higher Volume Operations (SATS HVO) Flight Experiment

This paper provides a summary of conclusions from the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Higher Volume Operations (HVO) Flight Experiment which NASA conducted to determine pilot acceptability of the HVO concept for normal conditions. The SATS HVO concept improves efficiency at non-towered, non-radar airports in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) while achieving a level of safety equal to today s system. Reported are results from flight experiment data that indicate that the SATS HVO concept is viable. The success of the SATS HVO concept is based on acceptable pilot workload, performance, and subjective criteria when compared to the procedural control operations in use today at non-towered, non-radar controlled airfields in IMC. The HVO Flight Experiment, flown on NASA's Cirrus SR22, used a subset of the HVO Simulation Experiment scenarios and evaluation pilots in order to validate the simulation experiment results. HVO and Baseline (today s system) scenarios flown included: single aircraft arriving for a GPS non-precision approach; aircraft arriving for the approach with multiple traffic aircraft; and aircraft arriving for the approach with multiple traffic aircraft and then conducting a missed approach. Results reveal that all twelve low-time instrument-rated pilots preferred SATS HVO when compared to current procedural separation operations. These pilots also flew the HVO procedures safely and proficiently without additional workload in comparison to today s system (Baseline). Detailed results of pilot flight technical error, and their subjective assessments of workload and situation awareness are presented in this paper.

Williams, Daniel M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Near-Term Concept for Trajectory Based Operations with Air/Ground Data Link Communication

An operating concept and required system components for trajectory-based operations with air/ground data link for today's en route and transition airspace is proposed. Controllers are fully responsible for separation as they are today, and no new aircraft equipage is required. Trajectory automation computes integrated solutions to problems like metering, weather avoidance, traffic conflicts and the desire to find and fly more time/fuel efficient flight trajectories. A common ground-based system supports all levels of aircraft equipage and performance including those equipped and not equipped for data link. User interface functions for the radar controller's display make trajectory-based clearance advisories easy to visualize, modify if necessary, and implement. Laboratory simulations (without human operators) were conducted to test integrated operation of selected system components with uncertainty modeling. Results are based on 102 hours of Fort Worth Center traffic recordings involving over 37,000 individual flights. The presence of uncertainty had a marginal effect (5%) on minimum-delay conflict resolution performance, and windfavorable routes had no effect on detection and resolution metrics. Flight plan amendments and clearances were substantially reduced compared to today s operations. Top-of-descent prediction errors are the largest cause of failure indicating that better descent predictions are needed to reliably achieve fuel-efficient descent profiles in medium to heavy traffic. Improved conflict detections for climbing flights could enable substantially more continuous climbs to cruise altitude. Unlike today s Conflict Alert, tactical automation must alert when an altitude amendment is entered, but before the aircraft starts the maneuver. In every other failure case tactical automation prevented losses of separation. A real-time prototype trajectory trajectory-automation system is running now and could be made ready for operational testing at an en route Center in 1-2 years.

McNally, David↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA, Building Tomorrow's Future

We, as NASA, continue to Dare Mighty Things. Here we are in October. In my country, the United States of America, we celebrate the anniversary of Christopher Columbus's arrival in the Americas, which occurred on October 12, 1492. His story, although happening over 500 years ago, is still very valid today. It is a part of the American spirit; part of the international human spirit. Columbus is famous for discovering the new world we now call America, but he probably never envisioned what great discoveries would be revealed many generations later. But in order for Columbus to begin his great adventure, he needed a business plan. Ho~ would he go about obtaining the funds and support necessary to build, supply, and man the ships required for his travels? He had a lot of obstacles and distractions. He needed a strong, internal drive to achieve his plans and recruit a willing crew of explorers also ready to risk their all for the unknown journey ahead. As Columbus set sail, he said "By prevailing over all obstacles and distractions, one may unfailingly arrive at his chosen goal or destination." Columbus may not have known he was on a journey for all human exploration. Recently, Charlie Bolden, the NASA Administrator, said, "Human exploration is and has always been about making life better for humans on Earth." Today, NASA and the U.S. human spaceflight program hold many of the same attributes as did Columbus and his contemporaries - a willing, can-do spirit. We are on the threshold of exciting new times in space exploration. Like Columbus, we need a business plan to take us into the future. We need to design the best ships and utilize the best designers, with their past knowledge and experience, to build those ships. We need funding and support from governments to achieve these goals of space exploration into the unknown. NASA does have that business plan, and it is an ambitious plan for human spaceflight and exploration. Today, we have a magnificent spaceflight laboratory, built over many years by the United States and other nations. Last month, the last man to step off the moon, Gene Cernan, told the U.S. Congress, "Today the International Space Station, the assembly of which may well go down in history as man's greatest engineering accomplishment of all time, circles the globe sixteen times every day - all in keeping with JFK's challenge to do the other things." The International Space Station (ISS) is a ship which provides an outstanding platform 'for performing spaceborne scientific, engineering, and Earth studies. Numerous nations utilize this unique cooperative partnership by sending scientists, engineers, astronauts, and cosmonauts to the ISS to spend time aboard the station in order to further scientific research, truly an asset for the entire planet.

Mango, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Ancient Martian Climate System

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than what they are today. I will then discuss the origin and evolution of the early atmosphere from accretion and core formation to the end of the late heavy bombardment, including estimates of the volatile inventory, outgassing history, and potential escape mechanisms. This sets the stage for a comprehensive look at the climate system of early Mars and the attempts to solve the faint young sun problem. I will review the basic physics involved and then step through the different ideas highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. I will then conclude with a summary and a discussion of potentially promising avenues of future research

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2012

Concept Assessment of a Fission Fragment Rocket Engine (FFRE) Propelled Spacecraft

The March, 2012 issue of Aerospace America stated that ―the near-to-medium prospects for applying advanced propulsion to create a new era of space exploration are not very good. In the current world, we operate to the Moon by climbing aboard a Carnival Cruise Lines vessel (Saturn 5), sail from the harbor (liftoff) shedding whole decks of the ship (staging) along the way and, having reached the return leg of the journey, sink the ship (burnout) and return home in a lifeboat (Apollo capsule). Clearly this is an illogical way to travel, but forced on Explorers by today's propulsion technology. However, the article neglected to consider the one propulsion technology, using today's physical principles that offer continuous, substantial thrust at a theoretical specific impulse of 1,000,000 sec. This engine unequivocally can create a new era of space exploration that changes the way spacecraft operate. Today's space Explorers could travel in Cruise Liner fashion using the technology not considered by Aerospace America, the novel Dusty Plasma Fission Fragment Rocket Engine (FFRE). This NIAC study addresses the FFRE as well as its impact on Exploration Spacecraft design and operation. It uses common physics of the relativistic speed of fission fragments to produce thrust. It radiatively cools the fissioning dusty core and magnetically controls the fragments direction to practically implement previously patented, but unworkable designs. The spacecraft hosting this engine is no more complex nor more massive than the International Space Station (ISS) and would employ the successful ISS technology for assembly and check-out. The elements can be lifted in "chunks" by a Heavy Lift Launcher. This Exploration Spacecraft would require the resupply of small amounts of nuclear fuel for each journey and would be an in-space asset for decades just as any Cruise Liner on Earth. This study has synthesized versions of the FFRE, integrated one concept onto a host spacecraft designed for manned travel to Jupiter's moon, Callisto, and assessed that round trip journey. This engine, although unoptimized, produced 10 pounds force of thrust at a delivered specific impulse of 527,000 seconds for the entire 15-year mission while providing enormous amounts of electrical power to the spacecraft. A payload of 60 metric tons, included in the 300 metric ton vehicle, was carried to Callisto and back; the propellant tanks holding the 4 metric tons of fuel were not jettisoned in the process. The study concluded that the engine and spacecraft are within today's technology, could be built, tested, launched on several SLS (Space Launch System) (or similar) launchers, integrated, checked out, moved to an in-space base such as at a Lagrange point and operated for decades.

Engine↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a Preservation Content Standard for Earth Observation Data

Information from Earth observing missions (remote sensing with airborne and spaceborne instruments, and in situ measurements such as those from field campaigns) is proliferating in the world. Many agencies across the globe are generating important datasets by collecting measurements from instruments on board aircraft and spacecraft, globally and constantly. The data resulting from such measurements are a valuable resource that needs to be preserved for the benefit of future generations. These observations are the primary record of the Earths environment and therefore are the key to understanding how conditions in the future will compare to conditions today. Earth science observational data, derived products and models are used to answer key questions of global significance. In the near-term, as long as the missions data are being used actively for scientific research, it continues to be important to provide easy access to the data and services commensurate with current information technology. For the longer term, when the focus of the research community shifts toward new missions and observations, it is essential to preserve the previous mission data and associated information. This will enable a new user in the future to understand how the data were used for deriving information, knowledge and policy recommendations and to repeat the experiment to ascertain the validity and possible limitations of conclusions reached in the past and to provide confidence in long term trends that depended on data from multiple missions. Organizations that collect, process, and utilize Earth observation data today have a responsibility to ensure that the data and associated content continue to be preserved by them or are gathered and handed off to other organizations for preservation for the benefit of future generations. In order to ensure preservation of complete content necessary for understanding and reusing the data and derived digital products from todays missions, it is necessary to develop a specification of such preservation content. While there are existing standards that address archival and preservation in general, there are no existing international standards or specifications today to address what content should be preserved. The purpose of this paper is to outline briefly the existing standards that apply to preservation, describe a recent effort in getting an international standard in place for specifying preservation content for Earth observation data and derived digital data products and the remaining work needed to arrive at a standard.

ISO Standards↗

DOE OSTI2023

Early glacier advance in New Zealand during the Antarctic Cold Reversal

ABSTRACT Glacial landscapes preserve records of past climate change. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the Late Quaternary provides information about past climate change and context for present‐day glacier response to climate warming. Using 28 beryllium‐10 ( 10 Be) surface exposure dates and snowline reconstructions, we present glacier fluctuations and climate changes for the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Ahuriri River catchment, Southern Alps of New Zealand (44°7′50″S, 169°38′29″E). Prominent terminal and lateral moraine features from the upper right tributary of the Ahuriri River valley have exposure ages of 14.5 ± 0.3, 13.6 ± 0.3 and 12.6 ± 0.2 ka, suggesting retreat of the glacier during the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Maximum elevation of lateral moraines (MELM) and accumulation area ratio (AAR) suggest snowline elevations at these ages were ≤700, ≤630 and ~360 m lower than today, respectively. This equates to air temperatures ≤3.9, ≤3.5 and 2.3 ± 0.7 °C lower than today (1981–2010), assuming no changes in past precipitation. Ice‐sculpted bedrock surfaces bound by a lateral moraine at nearby Canyon Creek have an age of 13.1 ± 0.3 ka, indicating the moraine correlates with those in the Ahuriri upper right tributary. MELM and AAR reconstructions from the Canyon Creek suggest that snowline elevations at 14.5–13.6 ka were ≤500 or ~380 m lower than today, corresponding to air temperatures ≤2.8 or 2.4 ± 0.7 °C lower than the present‐day (1981–2010). Our results provide insight into the structure of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Southern Alps, showing that the largest glacier advance occurred at the start of this interval at c . 14.5 ± 0.3 ka and was followed by gradual retreat. We hypothesize that the early cooling and glacier readvance in New Zealand at the onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal were triggered by a latitudinal shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Humidity’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning

We report that the increasing need to cool the air in our built environment is both a cause and an effect of climate change. Air conditioning accounts for a large portion of global greenhouse gas emissions today, which we estimate at 3.9%; however, the role that humidity plays in these emissions is often overlooked. Here, we show that the emissions associated with reducing air humidity (i.e., removing water vapor from air) are larger than emissions associated with reducing air temperature (i.e., cooling air). We calculate these emissions for today and 2050 and show how dramatically humidity-related emissions will increase with rising cooling demand around the world. We also calculate the minimum separation energy for removing water vapor from air and find that this is at least an order of magnitude less than the processes used today.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating regional workforce impacts of decarbonizing integrated steelmaking

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are increasing pressure on heavy manufacturing industries to decarbonize production. The iron and steel industry is responsible for 7% of CO 2 emissions globally (2% in the United States) and is often a major employer in the regions where iron and steel is produced. Understanding the future prospects for workers in regions with high CO 2 emitting industries—including impacts of phasing out or evolving such industries—will be critical for informing regional economic and clean energy strategies. We simulate the impact of an “in-place” transition that replaces today’s integrated production with direct reduced iron (DRI) used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs), using Southwest Pennsylvania as an application of our generalizable approach. Our results suggest that the integrated steelmaking workforce today has the skills, knowledge, and abilities (SKAs) to fill over 95% of all jobs required by DRI/EAF facilities, but the number of jobs is only 25% of those at integrated plants. We also find that some occupational groups have greater general transferability into the broader job market, while other groups, such as production workers, are ill-equipped today based on current SKAs to transition out of the iron and steel industry. Our methodology further suggests factors that limit transitions: Around 85% of occupations are more limited by missing skills, while 15% are more limited by insufficient wages. These results may help to improve the design of social policy and the targeting of retraining programs, while the simulation approach can be readily adapted for other regions and industries.

decarbonization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen as Part of a 100% Clean Energy System: Exploring Its Decarbonization Roles

Today's energy system uses a variety of fuels and energy carriers in molecular forms, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, each contributing to CO2 emissions (Figure 1). As solar and wind levels grow and the energy system becomes more electrified, fossil molecular fuels will contribute a progressively smaller fraction of overall energy. As shown in Figure 2, hydroelectric storage and molecules, such as coal and natural gas, provide substantial storage and dispatch functionality today that will become increasingly critical for electricity operation and stability. Emerging low-carbon gases, such as hydrogen, can support the efficient integration of renewables in the transition from today's energy system to one that is 100% clean from a carbon emissions perspective.

clean energy system↗