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ACS3 - Flight Dynamics for A Solar Sail Technology Demonstration Mission

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m 2 solar sail in a 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand no earlier than July 2023. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar Sail↗

ACS3: Flight Dynamics

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m2 solar sail in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar sail↗

Probing the High-energy Gamma-Ray Emission Mechanism in the Vela Pulsar via Phase-resolved Spectral and Energy-dependent Light-curve Modeling

Recent kinetic simulations sparked a debate regarding the emission mechanism responsible for pulsed GeV γ-ray emission from pulsars. Some models invoke curvature radiation, while other models assume synchrotron radiation in the current sheet. We interpret the curved spectrum of the Vela pulsar as seen by H.E.S.S. II (up to ∼100 GeV) and the Fermi Large Area Telescope to be the result of curvature radiation due to primary particles in the pulsar magnetosphere and current sheet. We present phase-resolved spectra and energy-dependent light curves using an extended slot gap and current-sheet model, invoking a step function for the accelerating electric field as motivated by kinetic simulations. We include a refined calculation of the curvature radius of particle trajectories in the lab frame, impacting the particle transport, predicted light curves, and spectra. Our model reproduces the decrease of the flux of the first peak relative to the second one, evolution of the bridge emission, near-constant phase positions of peaks, and narrowing of pulses with increasing energy. We can explain the first of these trends because we find that the curvature radii of the particle trajectories in regions where the second γ-ray light-curve peak originates are systematically larger than those associated with the first peak, implying that the spectral cutoff of the second peak is correspondingly larger. However, an unknown azimuthal dependence of the E field, as well as uncertainty in the precise spatial origin of the GeV emission, precludes a simplistic discrimination of emission mechanisms.

Monica Barnard↗

Analysis of Strategic Conflict Management Approaches as Applied to Simulated UAM Operations

This report presents the results of a comparison analysis of candidate Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) strategies as applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The SCM strategies investigated included: no SCM, resource scheduling (RS), resource flow rates (FR), area-based flow rates (AR), and conflict detection and resolution (CR). The study evaluated each strategy against the same 3 levels of flight demand in a representative airspace construct for the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The study also accounted for different levels of uncertainty in operational planning and equivalent levels of trajectory following error. In the analysis, we compared the SCM strategies’ effectiveness in reducing the need for the tactical conflict management layer to act and looked at the metrics of unmitigated losses-of-separation (LOS), flight delays imposed by strategic planning, and throughput of the overall airspace. The study results indicated that the CR strategy was the most effective at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS, even in the presence of trajectory error when uncertainty is accounted for in planning. Thus, if the objective is to reduce the number of actions that the tactical conflict management layer will have to take, in terms of conflicts that may need to be resolved, CR is the strategy to use. The FR strategy was found to be the worst at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS. Thus, it is not very effective at reducing the actions required by a tactical conflict management layer. In the airspace tested, the demand was high enough to produce unacceptable levels of flight delay and reductions of throughput when the SCM strategies were implemented. This was especially evident at the higher levels of trajectory uncertainty and error. The need to account for expected levels of uncertainty becomes more and more important as the demand level increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. This is because the likelihood of flights with LOS increases as the density of operations increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. Accounting for uncertainty in the SCM strategies improves the strategy effectiveness with respect to LOS but increases delays and reduces throughput. Thus, there is a tradeoff between scalability and allowable levels of uncertainty. That is, we can implement an air traffic management construct that allows high levels of uncertainty, but we can expect that same system to have limits on scalability that may be evident even at small demand levels, such as those used in this study. Therefore, the results in this study indicate that an air traffic system should attempt to implement mechanisms appropriate for reducing uncertainty where possible in order to increase the chances for scalability. And this increased level of predictability of operations needs to be balanced with mechanisms for ensuring flexibility when operational conditions and plans need to change, even though those types of changes should be the exception rather than the rule under normal conditions. The study also introduced a trade space that could serve as a mechanism for selecting the appropriate SCM strategy in a trade-off between uncertainty and error, mean flight delay, and the LOS metrics (which this study equates to the potential for tactical conflict management actions). The optimal solution for a given airspace, demand level, and other factors, could likely be a combination of SCM strategies, although this study only compared the use of a single SCM strategy at a time. The CR strategy appeared to have the best opportunity for scalability by limiting the number of potential tactical actions to nearly zero.

Strategic Conflict Management↗

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗

Rectification of terrain induced distortions in radar imagery

This paper describes a technique to generate geocoded synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery corrected for terrain induced geometric distortions. This algorithm transforms the raw slant range image, generated by the signal processor, into a map registered product, resampled to either Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) or Polar Stereographic projections, and corrected for foreshortening. The technique utilizes the space platform trajectory information in conjunction with a digital elevation map (DEM) of the target area to generate an ortho-radar map with near-autonomous operation. The current procedure requires only two to three tie-points to compensate for the platform position uncertainty that results in translational error between the image and the DEM. This approach is unique in that it does not require generation of a simulated radar image from the DEM or a grid of tie-points to characterize the image-to-map distortions. Rather, it models the inherent distortions based on knowledge of the radar data collection characteristics, the signal Doppler parameters, and the local terrain height to automatically predict the registration transformation. This algorithm has been implemented on a minicomputer system equipped with an array processor and a large random-access memory to optimize the throughput.

Kwok, Ronald↗

Demonstration of an Aerocapture GN and C System Through Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulations

Aerocapture is an orbit insertion maneuver in which a spacecraft flies through a planetary atmosphere one time using drag force to decelerate and effect a hyperbolic to elliptical orbit change. Aerocapture employs a feedback Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) system to deliver the spacecraft into a precise postatmospheric orbit despite the uncertainties inherent in planetary atmosphere knowledge, entry targeting and aerodynamic predictions. Only small amounts of propellant are required for attitude control and orbit adjustments, thereby providing mass savings of hundreds to thousands of kilograms over conventional all-propulsive techniques. The Analytic Predictor Corrector (APC) guidance algorithm has been developed to steer the vehicle through the aerocapture maneuver using bank angle control. Through funding provided by NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program, the operation of an aerocapture GN&C system has been demonstrated in high-fidelity simulations that include real-time hardware in the loop, thus increasing the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of aerocapture GN&C. First, a non-real-time (NRT), 6-DOF trajectory simulation was developed for the aerocapture trajectory. The simulation included vehicle dynamics, gravity model, atmosphere model, aerodynamics model, inertial measurement unit (IMU) model, attitude control thruster torque models, and GN&C algorithms (including the APC aerocapture guidance). The simulation used the vehicle and mission parameters from the ST-9 mission. A 2000 case Monte Carlo simulation was performed and results show an aerocapture success rate of greater than 99.7%, greater than 95% of total delta-V required for orbit insertion is provided by aerodynamic drag, and post-aerocapture orbit plane wedge angle error is less than 0.5 deg (3-sigma). Then a real-time (RT), 6-DOF simulation for the aerocapture trajectory was developed which demonstrated the guidance software executing on a flight-like computer, interfacing with a simulated IMU and simulated thrusters, with vehicle dynamics provided by an external simulator. Five cases from the NRT simulations were run in the RT simulation environment. The results compare well to those of the NRT simulation thus verifying the RT simulation configuration. The results of the above described simulations show the aerocapture maneuver using the APC algorithm can be accomplished reliably and the algorithm is now at TRL-6. Flight validation is the next step for aerocapture technology development.

Masciarelli, James↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

Human Spaceflight Trajectory Operations: A Case Study from STS-132/ULF4

Prior to the launch of the STS-132/ULF4 mission, the International Space Station (ISS) Flight Control Team was alerted to the approach of a space debris with a predicted time of closest approach approximately 1 hr after Space Shuttle docking. As a result, the ISS team considered performing a collision avoidance maneuver prior to the Space Shuttle s approach. The purpose of this presentation will be to use this case study to illustrate best practices of the human spaceflight trajectory operations team. The presentation will begin with an overview of the roles of the real-time ISS and Space Shuttle trajectory flight control teams. Then, the STS-132/ULF4 case study will be used to illustrate the issues and lessons learned involved in performing Space Shuttle rendezvous maneuver planning and execution. Specific elements of the STS-132 Space Shuttle rendezvous maneuver profile that can be used to provide mission assurance in cases of trajectory uncertainty will be described and discussed. Additionally, this case study will be used to provide context for identifying lessons learned in an operational environment that requires technical and decision-making coordination between two control center teams with two potentially maneuvering space vehicles.

Cutri-Kohart, Rebecca↗

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗

Urban Air Mobility Noise: Current Practice, Gaps, and Recommendations

AN Air Mobility (UAM) is an opportunity for aviation to improve transportation systems across the world. Representative UAM vehicle attributes include electrical vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles that can accommodate up to 6 passengers (or equivalent cargo), are possibly autonomous, perform missions of up to 100 nautical miles at altitudes up to 3000 ft. above ground level, have flight speeds up to 200 knots, and weigh between 800 and 8000 pounds. Along with the many anticipated benefits, there will be noise issues that need to be addressed. In 2018, NASA formed an Urban Air Mobility Noise Working Group (UNWG) to assemble noise experts from industry, universities and government agencies to identify, discuss, and address UAM noise issues. This oral presentation summarizes technology gaps and goals associated with four areas of interest: Tools & Technologies, Ground & Flight Testing, Human Response & Metrics, and Regulation & Policy, and is drawn from a draft white paper [1] by the same title. Tools & Technologies include noise prediction tools and noise reduction technologies that have been developed for conventional rotorcraft and fixed-wing vehicles that may be applicable or need to be modified for UAM. Prediction tools need to be able to account for variable speed rotors and other temporal variation effects that impact community noise. A reprioritization of noise sources needs to be done since UAM vehicles include multiple rotors/propellers, often in proximity to one another and/or the airframe, with dynamic transition, and new noise sources such as electric motors or hybrid-electric propulsion. Scattering and propagation methods need to be developed that include the vehicle components and surfaces near a receiver such as buildings and vertiports. Validation databases are needed to quantify prediction uncertainties. Prediction tools used to evaluate community noise will need source models appropriate for a wide range of UAM vehicles. Existing noise reduction technologies need to be evaluated and new noise reduction technologies should be developed in anticipation of future noise requirements. Although the prediction and treatment of interior cabin noise is a secondary goal, it is recognized that new tools and methods may be needed due to the uniqueness of the vehicle design and the presence of both acoustic and structure-borne loads. Ground & Flight Testing has been a critical part of validating noise reduction technologies and verifying that an air vehicle is ready for certification. UAM vehicles introduce new challenges for test procedures such as different source noise directivity, unsteady sources due to maneuvers, and a variety of takeoff and approach trajectories. The operating environment will be more complex than current aircraft with the introduction of vertiports in populated areas with “urban canyons” making reflections an important part of noise prediction and annoyance. It is expected that new test procedures and measurement methods will be necessary. Consideration will need to be given for both piloted and autonomous operations. Human Response & Metrics may be very different for UAM noise compared to current experience with airport noise. Current metrics used to certify rotorcraft and fixed-wing aircraft may not be as useful for evaluating UAM noise. Operations at lower altitudes may influence annoyance. Psychoacoustic and community testing will be needed to quantify annoyance and assess appropriate metrics. In addition to conventional noise level metrics, considerations such as audibility and temporal variation of the sound may be required. Differences between indoor or outdoor exposure will have an impact with dependence on urban and residential flight paths. Aircraft noise is currently regulated at a national level and typically involves partnerships with the industry to establish regulations. Regulators realize that current policies and procedures may not be appropriate for some of the emerging air vehicles and new procedures may be needed to address UAM noise. Development of new policies and procedures are needed so that local communities do not hastily attempt to establish their own restrictions that will both limit growth of the market and create an inconsistent and confusing regulatory environment. To expedite this development, it is crucial early measurement data are shared through partnership arrangements to support both noise certification and noise modeling/noise assessment. At the same time, an effective engagement strategy should be developed to address local community noise issues associated with UAM vehicles and flight operations as they arise.

urban air mobility↗

The Impact Threat and Public Perception

Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth, and a news report last year implying that asteroid 1997 XF11 had a distinct chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2028 further caught the public's eye. The report of possible impact was withdrawn the very next day, and the public perceived either that astronomers had made mistaken calculations, or that the pre-discovery observations found that day had been responsible for the revised prediction. But in fact, the original report of the possibility of impact in 2028 was simply a premature assessment. The XF11 affair has demonstrated the need for clarity and precision in public communications dealing with the possibility of Earth impact, as well as the importance of peer review before results are released to the press. This year, another potentially hazardous asteroid, 1999 AN10, has made the news, and this time there is indeed a remote chance of collision. Although impact is not possible during the asteroid's primary close approach in 2027, the uncertainties allow for a remarkably close passage, and embedded within the encounter's uncertainty region are many narrow "keyholes" which could bring the asteroid back for a close approach in a later year. Three keyholes have been identified which could perturb the asteroid onto trajectories that collide with the Earth in the years 2044, 2046, or 2039. At the time of this writing, the estimated impact probability for 1999 AN10 is on the order of 1 in 500,000, larger than for any other known object, but still significantly less than the probability of an undiscovered asteroid of equivalent size striking the Earth before 2044. Additional astrometric measurements of 1999 AN10 will likely drive its impact probability down to near-zero, but this may not happen for years, testing the public's reaction to a lingering remote possibility of impact. A side effect of the increasing discovery rate for Near Earth objects will be a growing number of cases like 1999 ANIO.

Chodas, Paul W.↗

Non-isotropic turbulence effects on spray combustion

A numerical model for the prediction of local properties of statistically stationary spray-combusting flows is evaluated by comparison with experimental data. To appraise the relative performance of turbulence models, computations were carried out by the k-epsilon model and the algebraic stress model. The present numerical results show the qualitative agreement with experimental data. In terms of overall local flow properties, the algebraic stress model improves a degree of conformity to the experimental data due to its ability to introduce the nonisotropic turbulence effects. Two swirl numbers are considered to investigate the influence of swirl on the droplet evaporation and trajectories, and the effects of droplet/turbulence interactions in flow properties. It is found that the large swirl produces a higher evaporationn rate, and more intensive turbulent mixing and burning. The discrepancies observed in the results are attributed mainly to uncertainties in the initial spray size and velocity distributions, the droplet/wall impingement interaction, the combustion model with the fast chemistry and the turbulence models dealing with the strong streamline curvature and complex interactions between the dispersed droplets and the continuous gas-phase flows.

Kim, Y. M.↗

Lunar Prospector Orbit Determination Uncertainties Using the High Resolution Lunar Gravity Models

The Lunar Prospector (LP) mission began on January 6, 1998, when the LP spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The objectives of the mission were to determine whether water ice exists at the lunar poles, generate a global compositional map of the lunar surface, detect lunar outgassing, and improve knowledge of the lunar magnetic and gravity fields. Orbit determination of LP performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is conducted as part of the principal science investigation of the lunar gravity field. This paper will describe the JPL effort in support of the LP Gravity Investigation. This support includes high precision orbit determination, gravity model validation, and data editing. A description of the mission and its trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the orbit determination estimation procedure and models. Accuracies will be examined in terms of orbit-to-orbit solution differences, as a function of oblateness model truncation, and inclination in the plane-of-sky. Long term predictions for several gravity fields will be compared to the reconstructed orbits to demonstrate the accuracy of the orbit determination and oblateness fields developed by the Principal Gravity Investigator.

Carranza, Eric↗

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

CTOP↗

Using an Automated Air Traffic Simulation Capability for a Parametric Study in Traffic Flow Management

Flight delays occur when demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports exceeds predicted capacity. Demand for capacity-constrained airspace or airports can be controlled by a series of Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), which use departure and airborne delays, as well as pre-departure and airborne reroutes, to manage access to the constrained resources. Two systems exist in current and planned future operations to address imbalances between demand and capacity. The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) reduces demand to constrained resources by assigning strategic departure delay and pre-departure reroutes. Reroutes are selected from Trajectory Options Sets (TOSs) submitted by airlines. As flights approach the constrained resource, the Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM) is used to assign tactical delay to satisfy constraints. This paper describes experiments performed to study the impact of varying levels of airline participation in CTOP via submission of TOSs on ground delay and flight time, and the impact of departure uncertainty on TBFM delays. Results suggest that as CTOP participation increases, average ground delays decrease for all airlines, but to the greatest extent for airlines participating in CTOP. A threshold in CTOP participation, which varies with the constraint capacity, is identified beyond which there is relatively little further reduction in average ground delays. Similarly, given the likely level of CTOP participation, the capacity reduction for which CTOP would be an appropriate TMI is also identified. Results also suggest that high average departure errors and high variability in departure error can make the prioritization of TBFM internal departures in TBFM metering and scheduling infeasible. Departure errors at current levels are, however, acceptable.

integrated demand management↗