Results for “trajectory uncertainty” — Page 10

NASA NTRS2014

A Concept of Operations for Far-Term Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO)

The goal of this far-term STBO (Surface Trajectory-Based Operations) ConOps (Concept of Operations) is to increase the efficiency and predictability of airport surface operations, and reduce the environmental impact, by incorporating a time-based component to surface operations. In the far-term NextGen timeframe, airport surface operations will transition from current-day first-come, first-served operations, to strategically scheduled operations in which pilots are recruited as active participants in meeting the precise time-based goals of NextGen surface operations. The far-term STBO concept includes two-phases. Phase 1 introduces time-based traffic flow constraint points, which divide the taxi route into segments with an assigned Required Time of Arrival (RTA). This Phase 1 approach provides temporal certainty only near the traffic flow constraint points, but not in between. Minimal augmentations to the flight deck are required to support required time of arrival (RTA) management. Phase 2 further increases precision and efficiency by introducing full four-dimensional (4D) trajectories, with an x-y location for all times t. This phase assumes adoption of advanced flight deck equipage enabling higher temporal precision sufficient to support aircraft conformance to 4D trajectories. This allows more precision and less temporal uncertainty at all times along the route.

Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Spaceflight Recent Conjunctions of Interest

I. During each nine-hour shift (or upon request), the Orbital Safety Analyst (OSA) at JSpOC updates the entire tracked catalog with the latest tracking data from the SSN and screens this catalog against NASA s assets. a) For ISS operations, a 72-hour advance screening is performed. b) For Shuttle orbit operations, a 36-hour advance screening is performed. c) If a vehicle is performing a maneuver during the screening period, OSA uses post-reboost-trajectory data supplied by Mission Control Center-Houston (MCC-H) for screening. II. An automated process is used to detect any conjunctions within 10 x 40 x 40 km box (centered on the vehicle) using Special Perturbation (SP) processing: a) Box dimensions are Radial x Downtrack x Crosstrack. b) Any object found within this box has the tracking tasking level increased to improve (hopefully) its uncertainty in its current and predicted orbital trajectory. c) OSA informs NASA if any object is found inside a 2 x 25 x 25 km box then creates and sends an Orbital Conjunction Message (OCM) to NASA which contains detailed information about the conjunction. d) For Shuttle, the box size used for screening and reporting is altered for special operations (day of rendezvous, launch screening, etc.).

Browns, Ansley C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigation Performance of the BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis- 1 campaign. The BioSentinel navigation team successfully tracked and guided the spacecraft through a lunar gravity assist to its destination Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. This 6U CubeSat carries live yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also an uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. We present the results of Monte Carlo analyses and compute the pertinent maneuvers to avoid it. In addition, we present a comparison with the actual deployment once the mission launched by reconstructing our trajectory with tracking data. On November 16th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive 2-way Doppler and Sequential Ranging data from the DSN. We processed early data to try to obtain a first ephemeris using Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) methods such as the least squares. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode, creating a period where the tracking data were sparse. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days (from DSN as well as ESA antennas) allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators aborted any correction maneuvers. This periselene altitude also gave us the necessary energy to achieve a heliocentric orbit. The next challenge was due to the necessary adjustments in our orbit determination method due to the large energy boost resulting from the lunar flyby. After a series of tracking passes we were able to get a nominal solution that resulted into a stable trajectory. This paper discusses in detail the navigation performance using the X-band IRIS transponder, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this deep space, CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

NASA NTRS2022

Monte-Carlo Analysis of Minimum Thermocouple Depths using Icarus

Icarus is a three-dimensional, unstructured, finite-volume material response solver developed at NASA Ames Research Center and has been verified against other NASA material response tools like FIAT, which have a long history of successfully designing thermal protection system (TPS). Icarus solves a set of conservation equations for mass and energy and uses Darcy’s Law in place of momentum conservation. An ecosystem of material response tools has been built around a general-purposed Icarus library that in addition to the typical material response analysis also supports TPS sizing (1-D and multi-dimensional), uncertainty quantification, and has been successfully integrated into a multi-physics architecture built around US3D. In this paper, a brief overview of Icarus and its capabilities will be presented using an illustrative Monte Carlo analysis of the one-dimensional, in-depth material response of a representative Dragonfly trajectory.

Material Response↗

NASA NTRS2018

Radiative Heating Indicators and Uncertainty Analysis for Mars 2020

This paper will present analysis to evaluate a functional form and associated parameters to determine the radiative heating at various back-shell locations of the Mars 2020 aeroshell. The radiative heating indicators are used for preliminary vehicle design, and to determine the worst-case trajectories for peak radiative heat flux and load. Historically, the functional form for radiative heating is based on free-stream parameters of density, velocity and a length scale, typically the nose-radius (or equivalent). However, a fit of this form has been shown to not provide significant enough accuracy when compared to simulation results. Therefore, a fit based on post-shock equilibrium calculations of CO and CO2 number density, temperature and pressure has been devised. The results from the TPS 15 01 trajectory were used to develop the fit. The fit was then applied to the MSL best estimated trajectory (BET). Furthermore, the paper will quantify the uncertainty in simulations of the radiative heating for Mars 2020.

Mars 2020↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis-1 campaign. This 6U CubeSat carries yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. On November 16 th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive tracking data from the DSN and ESA antennas. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators avoided any correction maneuvers on the trajectory and successfully tracked and guide the spacecraft. The spacecraft performed a nominal lunar flyby which provided the pertinent energy to achieve a final Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. Over the course of two weeks, the mission operators corroborated that the subsystems were functioning as expected after the lunar eclipse and the large ΔV incurred. Science operations started once the mission achieved the nominal orbit in Deep Space. This paper discusses in detail the BioSentinel flight performance, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

NASA NTRS2017

Trajectory Dispersed Vehicle Process for Space Launch System

The Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle is part of NASA's deep space exploration plans that includes manned missions to Mars. Manufacturing uncertainties in design parameters are key considerations throughout SLS development as they have significant effects on focus parameters such as lift-off-thrust-to-weight, vehicle payload, maximum dynamic pressure, and compression loads. This presentation discusses how the SLS program captures these uncertainties by utilizing a 3 degree of freedom (DOF) process called Trajectory Dispersed (TD) analysis. This analysis biases nominal trajectories to identify extremes in the design parameters for various potential SLS configurations and missions. This process utilizes a Design of Experiments (DOE) and response surface methodologies (RSM) to statistically sample uncertainties, and develop resulting vehicles using a Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) process for targeting uncertainties bias. These vehicles represent various missions and configurations which are used as key inputs into a variety of analyses in the SLS design process, including 6 DOF dispersions, separation clearances, and engine out failure studies.

Statham, Tamara↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Entry Guidance Design and Post-Flight Performance of the Mars 2020 Mission

Like its predecessor Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 mission successfully utilized a derivative of the Apollo Entry Terminal Point Controller guidance algorithm, whereby bank angle controls range flown along a trajectory. The flight performance of this algorithm in conjunction with a range-trigger for parachute deploy delivered the Perseverance rover to 1.7 km from the expected touchdown location within an ellipse of 7.5 x 5.2 km. This miss distance is largely attributed to atmospheric and aerodynamic modeling uncertainties between the design and as-flown trajectory. This algorithm for guided entry continues to provide a solid basis for Mars missions to improve upon.

Guidance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Post-Flight EDL Entry Guidance for the Mars 2020 Mission

Like its predecessor Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 mission successfully utilized a derivative of the Apollo Entry Terminal Point Controller guidance algorithm, whereby bank angle controls range flown along a trajectory. The flight performance of this algorithm in conjunction with a range-trigger for parachute deploy delivered the Perseverance rover to 1.7 km from the expected touchdown location within an ellipse of 7.5 x 5.2 km. This miss distance is largely attributed to atmospheric and aerodynamic modeling uncertainties between the design and as-flown trajectory. This algorithm for guided entry continues to provide a solid basis for Mars missions to improve upon.

Guidance↗

NASA NTRS1987

A combined stochastic feedforward and feedback control design methodology with application to autoland design

A combined stochastic feedforward and feedback control design methodology was developed. The objective of the feedforward control law is to track the commanded trajectory, whereas the feedback control law tries to maintain the plant state near the desired trajectory in the presence of disturbances and uncertainties about the plant. The feedforward control law design is formulated as a stochastic optimization problem and is embedded into the stochastic output feedback problem where the plant contains unstable and uncontrollable modes. An algorithm to compute the optimal feedforward is developed. In this approach, the use of error integral feedback, dynamic compensation, control rate command structures are an integral part of the methodology. An incremental implementation is recommended. Results on the eigenvalues of the implemented versus designed control laws are presented. The stochastic feedforward/feedback control methodology is used to design a digital automatic landing system for the ATOPS Research Vehicle, a Boeing 737-100 aircraft. The system control modes include localizer and glideslope capture and track, and flare to touchdown. Results of a detailed nonlinear simulation of the digital control laws, actuator systems, and aircraft aerodynamics are presented.

Halyo, Nesim↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Uncertain Nature of Cometary Motions

The number of active short- and long-periodic comets crossing the Earth's orbit each year is less than 10 percent of the corresponding number of asteroids crossing the Earth's orbit. However, the higher relative velocities of comets with respect to the Earth and the uncertainties associated with accurately computing their future trajectories can cause considerable problems when assessing the risks of Earth-crossing objects. Unlike asteroids, the motions of active comets are often affected by so-called nongravitational (outgassing) forces that are imperfectly modeled. In addition, the astrometric optical observations that are used to refine a comet's orbit are often imprecise because a comet's center of mass can be hidden by atmospheric gas and dust. For long-period comets, there is the additional problem of having to base orbital solutions on relatively short observational data intervals. Long-term numerical integrations extending two centuries into the future have been carried out to investigate upcoming Earth-close approaches by known periodic comets. Error analyses and impact probabilities have been computed for those comets that will pass closest to the Earth. Although there are no known comets that will make dangerously close Earth approaches in the next two centuries, there are a few objects that warrant future monitoring.

Yeomans, Donald K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-96 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite; and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occulation instrument, on board the French Satellite Pour I'Observations de la Terre. Comparisons of the different data sets with the model simulation are shown to provide complementary information and a consistent view of the ozone evolution. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be sensitive to the ozone vertical gradient and the model vertical transport, and only weakly sensitive to the model photochemistry. The most consistent comparison between observed and modeled ozone evolution is found for a simulation where the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. Diabatic trajectory calculations are used to estimate the uncertainty due to vertical advection quantitatively. The transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The model ozone evolution during December and January is broadly consistent with the observations when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ATTRACTOR: Toward Trustworthy and Trusted Autonomous Systems

The question of what it means and what it takes for an autonomous system to consider another autonomous system justifiably trustworthy must be addressed by all who seek to integrate intelligent machine agents into real-world operations. A satisfactory answer to this question is an essential component in accepting autonomous machine decision-making in safety-critical and time-critical environments, such as aviation. Historically, simulation platforms for test and evaluation of complex systems have proven to be effective in assessing performance and contributing to decisions on the fitness of systems to operate in current general and commercial aviation airspace. Moreover, simulations have informed the definition of safety-critical constraints. However, as machine systems progressively take on responsibilities for decision-making traditionally supplied by humans, simulations require enhancement. Mixed reality simulation that integrates real-world platforms and data or high-fidelity simulation data in a sim-to-flight paradigm provides insight into agent interaction and the rationale behind autonomous agent decision-making as well as the capacity for seamless integrated implementation, testing, and operation of systems. Strong simulation capabilities are especially important in the presence of algorithms that hold great promise in decision-making yet increase the uncertainty in the system. Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) is a subproject of NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project. ATTRACTOR’s objective is to build a basis for understanding trust and trustworthiness in multi-agent autonomous teams, and thus to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. Because the concepts of trust and trustworthiness must be addressed in a context, ATTRACTOR has chosen Search and Rescue (SAR) in dynamic and unstructured environments, with emphasis on search, as its design reference mission (DRM). During dynamic planning and execution of trajectory-based operations, autonomous agents determine their trajectories given an assigned mission or missions and call for assistance from an appropriate teammate when needed. This experience along with the attendant human-machine and machine-machine interactions, serve as a platform for developing approaches to identifying and measuring trustworthiness and increasing trust. In this paper, we give an overview of some of ATTRACTOR’s research and development activities, findings, and ongoing work.

ATTRACTOR↗