Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “trend estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

Impact of binary interactions on the diffuse supernova neutrino background

Binary interactions, especially mass transfer and mergers, can strongly influence the evolution of massive stars and change their final properties and the occurrence of supernovae. Here, we investigate how binary interactions affect predictions of the diffuse flux of neutrinos. By performing stellar population syntheses including prescriptions for binary interactions, we show that the resulting detection rates of the diffuse supernova neutrino background is enhanced by 15%–20% compared to estimates without binary considerations. A source of significant uncertainty arises due to the presently sparse knowledge of the evolution of rapidly rotating carbon-oxygen cores, especially those created as a result of mergers near the white dwarf to core collapse boundary. As a result, the enhancement effect may be as small as a few percent if the effects of rotation in postmerger systems are neglected, or as large as 75% if trends are extrapolated. Our estimates serve to highlight that binary effects can be important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Use of Machine Learning and Principal Component Analysis to Retrieve Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) With Hyperspectral Imagers and Reduce Noise in Spectral Fitting

Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) is an important trace-gas pollutant and climate agent whose presence also leads to spectral interference in ocean color retrievals. NO 2 column densities have been retrieved with satellite UV–Vis spectrometers such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) that typically have spectral resolutions of the order of 0.5 nm or better and spatial footprints as small as 3.6 km × 5.6 km. These NO 2 observations are used to estimate emissions, monitor pollution trends, and study effects on human health. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to retrieve NO 2 amounts with lower-spectral-resolution hyperspectral imagers such as the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) that will fly on the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) satellite set for launch in early 2024. OCI will have a spectral resolution of 5 nm and a spatial resolution of ∼ 1 km with global coverage in 1–2 d. At this spectral resolution, small-scale spectral structure from NO 2 absorption is still present. We use real spectra from the OMI to simulate OCI spectra that are in turn used to estimate NO 2 slant column densities (SCDs) with an artificial neural network (NN) trained on target OMI retrievals. While we obtain good results with no noise added to the OCI simulated spectra, we find that the expected instrumental noise substantially degrades the OCI NO 2 retrievals. Nevertheless, the NO 2 information from OCI may be of value for ocean color retrievals. OCI retrievals can also be temporally averaged over timescales of the order of months to reduce noise and provide higher-spatial-resolution maps that may be useful for downscaling lower-spatial-resolution data provided by instruments such as OMI and TROPOMI; this downscaling could potentially enable higher-resolution emissions estimates and be useful for other applications. In addition, we show that NNs that use coefficients of leading modes of a principal component analysis of radiance spectra as inputs appear to enable noise reduction in NO 2 retrievals. Once trained, NNs can also substantially speed up NO 2 spectral fitting algorithms as applied to OMI, TROPOMI, and similar instruments that are flying or will soon fly in geostationary orbit.

NO2↗

JPL IGS Analysis Center Report, 2001-2003

Three GPS orbit and clock products are currently provided by JPL for consideration by the IGS. Each differs in its latency and quality, with later results being more accurate. Results are typically available in both IGS and GIPSY formats via anonymous ftp. Current performance based on comparisons with the IGS final products is summarized. Orbit performance was determined by computing the 3D RMS difference between each JPL product and the IGS final orbits based on 15 minute estimates from the sp3 files. Clock performance was computed as the RMS difference after subtracting a linear trend based on 15 minute estimates from the sp3 files.

Heflin, M. B.↗

Atmospheric lifetime and annual release estimates for CFCl3 and CF2Cl2 from 5 years of ALE data

CFCl3 and CF2Cl2 data for the 5-year period from July 1978-June 1983 are analyzed. The lifetime estimates are updated using the trend technique and the annual global release rates of the gases are derived. The effects of release uncertainties on lifetime estimates are examined by studying fluorocarbon data. It is observed that in 1981 the mixing ratios for CFCl3 and CF2Cl2 displayed increases of 8.8. and 15.3 pptv/year respectively, and the trend lifetime for CFCl13 is 74 + 31 or - 17 years and for CF2Cl2 111 + 222 or - 44 years.

Cunnold, D. M.↗

Analysis of Ag/FEP Control Blanket Performance from Multiple Satellites

Published data reporting the change in solar absorptance as a function of time on orbit for certain satellites has been re-examined. The optical property change of metallized FEP as a function of total particulate radiation dose received by specific satellites has been estimated. Results tend to follow a common trend and a design curve has been constructed to estimate solar absorptance change as a function of radiation dose for metallized FEP at any altitude. Effects due to apparent contamination on several of the satellites are addressed and taken into account in determining property changes. Data from LDEF, ML-101, NavStar 1-5, NTS-2, the SCATHA experiment, and SOLRAD 11 are used as the basis of the design curve. A similar comparison is made between published atomic oxygen recession data from numerous Space Shuttle flights, a LEO experiment flown by Lockheed, and LDEF results. Variation of atomic oxygen recession rate of FEP as a function of exposure conditions is determined.

Pippin, H. G.↗

Revisiting AMOC Transport Estimates From Observations and Models

Abstract Reference level assumptions used to calculate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation transports at the RAPID and Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) observing arrays are revisited in an eddying ocean model. Observational transport calculation methods are complemented by several alternative approaches. At RAPID, the model transports from the observational method and the model truth (based on the actual model velocities) agree well in their mean and variability. There are substantial differences among the transport estimates obtained with various methods at the MOVE site. These differences result from relatively large and time‐varying reference velocities at depth in the model, not supporting a level‐of‐no‐motion. The methods that account for these reference velocities properly at MOVE produce transports that are in good agreement with the model truth. In contrast with the observational estimates, the model transport trends at MOVE and RAPID largely agree with each other on pentadal to multi‐decadal time scales.

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

Acoustic and Genetic Approaches for Informing Population Status and Trends of Migratory Tree Bats

Through the systematic collection of acoustic and genetic data over time, a weight of evidence may be built that will support an improved understanding around population stability for migratory tree-roosting bat species. This information can be leveraged to infer the influence stressors have on population stability, and subsequently determine the level of response necessary to sustain healthy populations. Here, we synthesize the existing information related to bat population status and trends, uncertainty regarding existing estimates, current and novel methods for assessing population-level data, and recommendations for near-term and long-term studies to reduce uncertainty surrounding population data. Although this report focuses on wind energy development and bats, the methods used are broadly applicable and are being implemented by other industries, academia, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations. Through efforts outside of the wind energy industry, it is likely we will gain a better understanding of bat populations, but the pace of data collection and analysis will be expedited by further participation by the wind energy industry. In return, the wind energy industry will benefit by contributing to these efforts either by 1) discovering that the population status of the species of interest is stable or growing, which may prevent the need for listing one or more species; or 2) recognizing the population status of certain species is in decline and implementing relatively moderate measures to reduce wind turbine-related mortality in the near term to stave off more stringent measures, which may be necessary if action is delayed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reference model for CH4 and N2O and trends

Data from the Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder on Nimbus 7 were used as the basis for a model of the abundances of nitrous oxide and methane in the stratosphere. A version of this was produced two years ago (Taylor, Dudhia, and Rodgers - hereafter called the original paper) and in this new paper some of the possible error sources and long term trends are considered in more detail. The principle source of error in the SAMS retrievals is thought to be the use of climatological ozone profiles to invert the temperature profile data. However, it was found that the effect is too small, and of the opposite sign, to explain the discrepancies between satellite and in situ measurements, noted in the original paper. As expected, no systematic trends which exceed the estimated error in the data are found in either methane or nitrous oxide.

Taylor, F. W.↗

Mass properties survey of solar array technologies

An overview of the technologies, electrical performance, and mass characteristics of many of the presently available and the more advanced developmental space solar array technologies is presented. Qualitative trends and quantitative mass estimates as total array output power is increased from 1 kW to 5 kW at End of Life (EOL) from a single wing are shown. The array technologies are part of a database supporting an ongoing solar power subsystem model development for top level subsystem and technology analyses. The model is used to estimate the overall electrical and thermal performance of the complete subsystem, and then calculate the mass and volume of the array, batteries, power management, and thermal control elements as an initial sizing. The array types considered here include planar rigid panel designs, flexible and rigid fold-out planar arrays, and two concentrator designs, one with one critical axis and the other with two critical axes. Solar cell technologies of Si, GaAs, and InP were included in the analyses. Comparisons were made at the array level; hinges, booms, harnesses, support structures, power transfer, and launch retention mountings were included. It is important to note that the results presented are approximations, and in some cases revised or modified performance and mass estimates of specific designs.

Kraus, Robert↗

Functional patterns in an annual grassland during an AVIRIS overflight

This study relates Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) imagery to ground measurements of vegetation distribution, physiology, and productivity at Stanford University's Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. Primary efforts focused on a 9-ha region of annual grassland where we completed a detailed ground-based study in conjunction with a 15 May 1991 AVIRIS overflight. Spectral mixture analysis and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) calculated from AVIRIS data were used to evaluate spatial patterns of vegetation type, productivity, and potential physiological activity. Concurrent ground sampling revealed a high degree of correlation between NDVI and estimates of canopy chemistry, structure, productivity, and CO2 flux, supporting the use of imaging spectrometry to estimate spatial and temporal trends in vegetation physiology and productivity in this relatively simple grassland ecosystem. Geostatistical analyses of both ground and AVIRIS data supported the conclusion that the AVIRIS pixel size was suitable for describing the influence of major landscape features in this grassland and that spatial detail would be lost at slightly larger pixel sizes typical of other imaging spectrometers.

Gamon, John A.↗

Quantitative EEG patterns of differential in-flight workload

Four test pilots were instrumented for in-flight EEG recordings using a custom portable recording system. Each flew six, two minute tracking tasks in the Calspan NT-33 experimental trainer at Edwards AFB. With the canopy blacked out, pilots used a HUD display to chase a simulated aircraft through a random flight course. Three configurations of flight controls altered the flight characteristics to achieve low, moderate, and high workload, as determined by normative Cooper-Harper ratings. The test protocol was administered by a command pilot in the back seat. Corresponding EEG and tracking data were compared off-line. Tracking performance was measured as deviation from the target aircraft and combined with control difficulty to achieve an estimate of 'cognitive workload'. Trended patterns of parietal EEG activity at 8-12 Hz were sorted according to this classification. In all cases, high workload produced a significantly greater suppression of 8-12 Hz activity than low workload. Further, a clear differentiation of EEG trend patterns was obtained in 80 percent of the cases. High workload produced a sustained suppression of 8-12 Hz activity, while moderate workload resulted in an initial suppression followed by a gradual increment. Low workload was associated with a modulated pattern lacking any periods of marked or sustained suppression. These findings suggest that quantitative analysis of appropriate EEG measures may provide an objective and reliable in-flight index of cognitive effort that could facilitate workload assessment.

Sterman, M. B.↗

Alkali element depletion by core formation and vaporization on the early Earth

The depletion of Na, K, Rb, and Cs in the Earth's upper mantle and crust relative to their abundances in chondrites is a long standing problem in geochemistry. Here we consider two commonly invoked mechanisms, namely core formation, and vaporization, for producing the observed depletions. Our models predict that a significant percentage of the Earth's bulk alkali element inventory is in the core (30 percent for Na, 52 percent for K, 74 percent for Rb, and 92 percent for Cs). These predictions agree with independent estimates from nebular volatility trends and (for K) from terrestrial heat flow data. Our models also predict that vaporization and thermal escape during planetary accretion are unlikely to produce the observed alkali element depletion pattern. However, loss during the putative giant impact which formed the Moon cannot be ruled out. Experimental, observational, and theoretical tests of our predictions are also described. Alkali element partitioning into the Earth's core was modeled by assuming that alkali element partitioning during core formation on the aubrite parent body (APB) is analogous to that on the early Earth. The analogy is reasonable for three reasons. First, the enstatite meteorites are the only known meteorites with the same oxygen isotope systematics as the Earth-Moon system. Second, the large core size of the Earth and the V depletion in the mantle requires accretion from planetesimals as reduced as the enstatite chondrites. Third, experimental studies of K partitioning between silicate and metal plus sulfide show that more K goes into the metal plus sulfide at higher pressures than at one atmosphere pressure. Thus partitioning in the relatively low pressure natural laboratory of the APB is a good guide to alkali elemental partitioning during the growth of the Earth.

Lodders, K.↗

Preliminary investigation of Zagros thrust-fold-belt deformation using SAR interferometry

Most of the Zagros deformation resulting from the convergence of Arabia and Eurasia takes place in the Southeast Zagros. To apply the SAR interferometry geodetic technique, a few ERS 1 & 2 satellite images were used to map this continuing deformation proven by GPS. Interferograms over 7 years show surprisingly high coherence. The unwrapped phases display a high correlation with topography reflecting atmospheric noise in addition to the desired tectonic signal. We estimate two simple linear trends and remove them from interferograms. The preliminary results show local uplift rates with a likely minimum of 1-2 mm/yr. These early crude results will be tested by more data in project No. 3174.

tectonics↗

Can Egypt Become Self-Sufficient in Wheat?

Egypt produces half of the 20 million tons of wheat that it consumes with irrigation and imports the other half. Egypt is also the world's largest importer of wheat. The population of Egypt is currently growing at 2.2% annually, and projections indicate that the demand for wheat will triple by the end of the century. Combining multi-crop and -climate models for different climate change scenarios with recent trends in technology, we estimated that future wheat yield will decline mostly from climate change, despite some yield improvements from new technologies. The growth stimulus from elevated atmospheric CO2 will be overtaken by the negative impact of rising temperatures on crop growth and yield. An ongoing program to double the irrigated land area by 2035 in parallel with crop intensification could increase wheat production and make Egypt self-sufficient in the near future, but would be insufficient after 2040s, even with modest population growth. Additionally, the demand for irrigation will increase from 6 to 20 billion m3 for the expanded wheat production, but even more water is needed to account for irrigation efficiency and salt leaching (to a total of up to 29 billion m3). Supplying water for future irrigation and producing sufficient grain will remain challenges for Egypt.

Asseng, Senthold↗

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Population Dynamics and Temporal Trends of Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract Because of their long-term listing under the Endangered Species Act, much interest has been placed on estimating population vital rates for Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the biotic and abiotic factors that influence the interannual variability in those vital rates have rarely been evaluated. We used mark–recapture data to estimate fish growth, survival, and trends in abundance for fluvial adult Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Over an 8-year period, a total of 1,205 individual Bull Trout were collected at a weir on the East Fork Salmon River (29 km upstream of its confluence with the Salmon River) during June–September, of which 420 were recaptures from prior years. Bull Trout varied in length from 215 to 756 mm and achieved a slightly larger asymptotic length and a slightly lower rate of growth relative to other fluvial and adfluvial Bull Trout populations. Apparent survival averaged 0.42 across all years, which was similar to previous studies estimating apparent survival for Bull Trout. The number of emigrating anadromous salmonid smolts in the upper Salmon River basin positively influenced East Fork Salmon River Bull Trout growth and survival, and survival was higher in years with lower annual discharge. Assessment of population growth via linear regression analysis indicated that the Bull Trout population was increasing during the study period (λ = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.03–1.14). Our findings highlight the ecological link between the abundance of wild and hatchery Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Sockeye Salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss smolts and growth and survival of adult Bull Trout in systems where these species occur in sympatry.

Roth, Curtis J.↗

Satellite UV and Aerosol Retrieval at NASA

UV radiances at the ground and tropospheric aerosols have been retrieved from the TOMS radiance data since 1979. The UV results have shown the global patterns based on ozone and cloud amounts once the latitude and seasonal effects are taken into account. The basic differences in cloud amounts have shown that the southern hemisphere receives much higher UV dosage amounts than corresponding latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. UV trends for the entire globe have been estimated showing that only higher latitudes have shown statistically significant trends. Aerosol distribution have been obtained for the entire globe showing the seasonal dependencies and the changes in specific regions. Most noticeable, have been the changes in dust transport that have occurred in Asia.

Herman, Jay R.↗