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NASA NTRS2012

Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing teleconnections from ENSO as likely contributors to regional precipitation variability. This work demonstrates the potential for using satellite-based precipitation estimates to identify potentially active landslide areas at the global scale in order to improve landslide cataloging and quantify landslide triggering at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

NASA NTRS2023

Kankakee Water Resources: Monitoring Temperature and Vegetation to Detect River Flow Impediments at Energy Intake Structures

In recent years, unpredictable grassing events have occurred at the Dresden Generating Station, located on the Kankakee River in northern Illinois. Grassing events are characterized by large mats of aquatic vegetation that accumulate downstream, resulting in the clogging of water intake structures and leading to major disruptions in power generation. Currently, employees at the Dresden Generating Station are responsible for reactively responding to each grassing event individually. This project, in partnership with Constellation Nuclear and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), assessed the feasibility of using Earth observations (Landsat 9 OLI-2, Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, DOVE PlanetScope, WorldView-3, and GPM IMERG) to detect floating aquatic vegetation within the Kankakee River and identify predictive factors that trigger grassing events, as doing so will provide the Dresden Generating Station the ability to anticipate future grassing events and enhance general hydrologic modeling efforts held by the USGS. The results of this study illustrated that, while aquatic vegetation can be detected by satellites with up to moderate spatial resolution (30 m), temporal resolution is a major limiting factor for tracking movements in floating aquatic vegetation and identifying predictive measures for these events. In addition, correlation results suggest a possible negative relationship between grassing events and river discharge (-0.875 correlation coefficient). In the future, pairing these results with ground control surveys and sensors with higher temporal capabilities would allow our project partners to predict and proactively address future grassing events, ensuring the reliable operation of the Dresden Generating Station.

Marisa Smedsrud↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar TLP's and the Tectonic Processes of the Earth and the Moon

We study the transient lunar phenomena (TLP) as an indicator of lunar tectonic. Seismic phenomena can be used as a direct indicator of some tectonic activities of the planets The Moon-Earth gravitational interaction has been studied extensively as a triggering mechanism to geodynamics. In this work, we study the reverse interaction Earth-Moon in relation to the TLP activities. The lunar outgassing potentially is the leading cause for TLP activities resulting from the lunar interior's dynamic mechanism. We have studied Earth venting and earthquakes processes and have found that radon was frequently activated before significant seismic events due to Moon-Sun interaction with Earth (Ouzounov et al., 2018). Earthquake lights, an associated phenomenon reported before some major earthquakes, are analog to TLP activities on the moon. In 1972, N. Kozyrev suggested a possible moon response to the significant seismic events on Earth. To understand whether TLP's activities have any possible connection with Earth geodynamics, we perform a statistical check between the significant seismic activities from the NEIC catalog and lunar TLPs for 1907-1977 for four lunar areas :Aristarchus, Plato, Gassendi, and Alphonsus. We use TLP compiled catalog based on Middlehurst et al. (1968), Cameron (2006a,b), and Crotts (2008) catalogs. Our results revealed a causal relationship between significant earthquakes and TLP events. However, this relation varies from the location and depth of the seismic events. Deformation triggers the degassing process, and TLPs are indicators for those underlying activities. Our work can provide new information about the origin of TLP and the existence of a possible relationship between the tectonic processes of Earth and the Moon.

D Ouzonov↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Gamow Explorer: a Gamma-Ray Burst Observatory to study the high redshift universe and enable multi-messenger astrophysics

The Gamow Explorer will use Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) to: 1) probe the high redshift universe (z < 6) when the first stars were born, galaxies formed and Hydrogen was reionized; and 2) enable multi-messenger astrophysics by rapidly identifying Electro-Magnetic (IR/Optical/X-ray) counterparts to Gravitational Wave (GW) events. GRBs have been detected out to z ~ 9 and their afterglows are a bright beacon lasting a few days that can be used to observe the spectral fingerprints of the host galaxy and intergalactic medium to map the period of reionization and early metal enrichment. Gamow Explorer is optimized to quickly identify high-z events to trigger follow-up observations with JWST and large ground-based telescopes. A wide field of view Lobster Eye X-ray Telescope (LEXT) will search for GRBs and locate them with arc-minute precision. When a GRB is detected, the rapidly slewing spacecraft will point the 5 photometric channel Photo-z Infra-Red Telescope (PIRT) to identify high redshift (z < 6) long GRBs within 100s and send an alert within 1000s of the GRB trigger. An L2 orbit provides < 95% observing efficiency with pointing optimized for follow up by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ground observatories. The predicted Gamow Explorer high-z rate is <10 times that of the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The instrument and mission capabilities also enable rapid identification of short GRBs and their afterglows associated with GW events. The Gamow Explorer will be proposed to the 2021 NASA MIDEX call and if approved, launched in 2028.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Fine-Tuning the Accretion Disk Clock in Hercules X-1

RXTE ASM count rates from the X-ray pulsar Her X-1 began falling consistently during the late months of 2003. The source is undergoing another state transition similar to the anomalous low state of 1999. This new event has triggered observations from both space and ground-based observatories. In order to aid data interpretation and telescope scheduling, and to facilitate the phase-connection of cycles before and after the state transition, we have re-calculated the precession ephemeris using cycles over the last 3.5 years. We report that the source has displayed a different precession period since the last anomalous event. Additional archival data from CGRO suggests that each low state is accompanied by a change in precession period and that the subsequent period is correlated with accretion flux. Consequently our analysis reveals long-term accretion disk behaviour which is predicted by theoretical models of radiation-driven warping.

Still, M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Key problems of the four-dimensional Earth system

Compelling evidence indicates that the solid Earth consists of two physicochemically distinct zones separated radially in the middle of the lower mantle at ~1800 km depth. The inner zone is governed by pressure-induced physics and chemistry dramatically different from the conventional behavior in the outer zone. These differences generate large physical and chemical potentials between the two zones that provide fundamental driving forces for triggering major events in Earth’s history. One of the main chemical carriers between the two zones is H 2 O in hydrous minerals that subducts into the inner zone, releases hydrogen, and leaves oxygen to create superoxides and form oxygen-rich piles at the core–mantle boundary, resulting in localized net oxygen gain in the inner zone. Accumulation of oxygen-rich piles at the base of the mantle could eventually reach a supercritical level that triggers eruptions, injecting materials that cause chemical mantle convection, superplumes, large igneous provinces, extreme climate changes, atmospheric oxygen fluctuations, and mass extinctions. Interdisciplinary research will be the key for advancing a unified theory of the four-dimensional Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Locating Partial Discharges in Power Transformers with Convolutional Iterative Filtering

The most common source of transformer failure is in the insulation, and the most prevalent warning signal for insulation weakness is partial discharge (PD). Locating the positions of these partial discharges would help repair the transformer to prevent failures. This work investigates algorithms that could be deployed to locate the position of a PD event using data from ultra-high frequency (UHF) sensors inside the transformer. These algorithms typically proceed in two steps: first determining the signal arrival time, and then locating the position based on time differences. This paper reviews available methods for each task and then propose new algorithms: a convolutional iterative filter with thresholding (CIFT) to determine the signal arrival time and a reference table of travel times to resolve the source location. The effectiveness of these algorithms are tested with a set of laboratory-triggered PD events and two sets of simulated PD events inside transformers in production use. Tests show the new approach provides more accurate locations than the best-known data analysis algorithms, and the difference is particularly large, 3.7X, when the signal sources are far from sensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sudden collapse of a pressure profile generated by off-axis heating in a linear magnetized plasma

Here, the features of an unexpected, large event that arises spontaneously during a basic heat transport experiment are presented. It consists of the sudden collapse of the radial plasma pressure profile, akin to disruption events observed in toroidal magnetic confinement devices. The experiment is performed on the Large Plasma Device at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). It uses a LaB6 thermionic emitter of annular shape to induce off-axis heating of a cold, afterglow plasma, in a linear magnetic geometry. The temporal evolution consists of three regimes. During an early, quiescent period, classical heat transport along and across the magnetic field arises from Coulomb collisions. After significant pressure gradients develop, drift-Alfvén waves become unstable. Upon reaching large amplitude, they trigger avalanche events that flatten the outer part of the heated region, which, in turn, quenches the instability. Due to the sustained heating, the pressure profile rebuilds and the process repeats, leading to a relatively long, second regime that displays multiple avalanches, but suddenly, the annular pressure profile is observed to collapse. After this collapse, the system enters a third regime with large fluctuations. Before the collapse, a rapid, runaway heating environment arises whose time evolution exhibits a self-similar dependence on the applied voltage. The time evolution, morphology, and scaling of the collapse event are presented, and an examination is made of the underlying mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoitaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy: Preprint

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Distribution Grid Resilience Through Model Predictive Controller Enabled Prioritized Load Restoration Strategy

Effective resilience improvement strategies enable the power grid to cope with disruptive extreme events. Most power grid outages are caused by disruptions in distribution grids. Motivated by the urgent need for power system resilience research, this paper proposes a priority-weighted optimal load restoration technique to enhance the resilience of distribution grids against extreme events. The proposed technique is based on smart distribution technology and framed as sequential multi-step decision process (MDP) and mixed integer linear program (MILP). It is formulated as optimal control problem with a model predictive control (MPC) approach. We applied the devised MILP-MPC-based load restoration technique to a simplified single-bus version of the IEEE 13-bus distribution system with integrated distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind turbine, photovoltaic array, microturbine, and energy storage device. The technique executes a reducing and rolling horizon optimization in each control step in real-time using the forecasted information of the renewables, the fuel status of the microturbine and the state of charge of the energy storage device. We consider an extreme event which triggered outage of the upstream utility grid and caused islanded operation of the distribution grid. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed MPC approach in restoring the distribution grid loads based on their priority during the main grid outage-caused islanded operation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and Validation of PMT s Waveforms in ICARUS LArTPC Using Monte Carlo Simulations

ICARUS (Imaging Cosmic and Rare Underground Signals) serves as the Far Detector in the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab, playing a central role in investigating the potential existence of sterile neutrinos in the eV squared mass range. The detector consists of two large Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) with a total capacity of 760 tons of liquid Argon. A key component of the system is its array of 360 Photo-Multiplier Tubes (PMTs), which detect the scintillation light produced by charged particles in liquid Argon; the fast scintillation signal enables accurate event timing, triggering, and reconstruction. Together with the TPC and CRT systems, the PMTs ensure precise interaction time measurements, which are crucial for distinguishing neutrino interactions from cosmic-ray backgrounds. ICARUS uses Hamamatsu R5912-MOD PMTs, optimized for cryogenic temperatures, with high quantum efficiency, excellent timing resolution, low dark current (around 10 nA at 1500 V), and broad spectral sensitivity (300–650 nm). These characteristics are crucial for the efficient detection of scintillation light. Analyzing the waveforms of PMT signals allows for a detailed comparison between experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations. This analysis is fundamental for improving the accuracy of neutrino event reconstruction, enhancing detector calibration, and optimizing the detector's performance for current and future operations.

Brio, V. [Catania U.] (ORCID:0009000088807391)↗

NASA NTRS2002

Dynamically controlled crystal growth system

Crystal growth can be initiated and controlled by dynamically controlled vapor diffusion or temperature change. In one aspect, the present invention uses a precisely controlled vapor diffusion approach to monitor and control protein crystal growth. The system utilizes a humidity sensor and various interfaces under computer control to effect virtually any evaporation rate from a number of different growth solutions simultaneously by means of an evaporative gas flow. A static laser light scattering sensor can be used to detect aggregation events and trigger a change in the evaporation rate for a growth solution. A control/follower configuration can be used to actively monitor one chamber and accurately control replicate chambers relative to the control chamber. In a second aspect, the invention exploits the varying solubility of proteins versus temperature to control the growth of protein crystals. This system contains miniature thermoelectric devices under microcomputer control that change temperature as needed to grow crystals of a given protein. Complex temperature ramps are possible using this approach. A static laser light scattering probe also can be used in this system as a non-invasive probe for detection of aggregation events. The automated dynamic control system provides systematic and predictable responses with regard to crystal size. These systems can be used for microgravity crystallization projects, for example in a space shuttle, and for crystallization work under terrestial conditions. The present invention is particularly useful for macromolecular crystallization, e.g. for proteins, polypeptides, nucleic acids, viruses and virus particles.

Bray, Terry L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Space Activism as an Epiphanic Belief System

Years of interaction with young people in the space industry and in space activists groups led to my observation that many such individuals can cite a quite specific life event that triggered a life-long interest in or commitment to creating a space future. I am particularly intrigued by parallels between such experiences and the phenomenon of epiphanic experiences among committed Christians. I see analogies between the puzzlement among space activists and among Christian groups as to the reasons for so many people being "unbelievers." At a small international meeting on lunar exploration in 2003, I heard two separate lunch speakers cite such personal experiences. At the beginning of a break in that meeting, I grabbed the microphone from the chairman and asked each person to write down on a pad by his chair whether or not he (or she) had experienced a specific event that led to their involvement in space. If the answer was positive, I asked for a brief narrative, for their age at the time, and for their current age. I received 53 submissions, 20% of which simply stated that their involvement in space exploration was happenstance. (Apollo astronaut John Young was among these.) The other 80% of the submissions had specific stories. The ages at the time of the epiphany ranged from 4 to 47; and their current ages ranged from 22 to 78. I will present a high-level characterization of these inputs. Interest in space exploration as a form of belief system is consistent with choosing NASA goals for the purpose of inspiration and with phenomena such as the "Overview Effect". More research might explore what form the transcendent experience takes and whether it might be associated with feelings of universal connection such as the noosphere or "The Force". From a pragmatic point of view, outreach strategies for exploration should focus on giving individuals access to personal, potentially transformational experiences as opposed to astronaut talks at civic clubs.

Mendell, Wendell↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Intraligand Charge Transfer Enables Visible‐Light‐Mediated Nickel‐Catalyzed Cross‐Coupling Reactions**

Abstract We demonstrate that several visible‐light‐mediated carbon−heteroatom cross‐coupling reactions can be carried out using a photoactive Ni II precatalyst that forms in situ from a nickel salt and a bipyridine ligand decorated with two carbazole groups (Ni(Czbpy)Cl 2 ). The activation of this precatalyst towards cross‐coupling reactions follows a hitherto undisclosed mechanism that is different from previously reported light‐responsive nickel complexes that undergo metal‐to‐ligand charge transfer. Theoretical and spectroscopic investigations revealed that irradiation of Ni(Czbpy)Cl 2 with visible light causes an initial intraligand charge transfer event that triggers productive catalysis. Ligand polymerization affords a porous, recyclable organic polymer for heterogeneous nickel catalysis of cross‐coupling reactions. The heterogeneous catalyst shows stable performance in a packed‐bed flow reactor during a week of continuous operation.

Cavedon, Cristian↗

DOE OSTI2022

Intraligand Charge Transfer Enables Visible‐Light‐Mediated Nickel‐Catalyzed Cross‐Coupling Reactions**

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗