Building Trust in Earth Science Findings through Data Traceability and Results Explainability
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People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6
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(U) Single Feature Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests [3] provided an overview for the need of experiments, with accompanying models and simulations, specifically designed to reduce uncertainties and build confidence in complex testing and analysis applications. The Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) testbed is a joint effort between W-13 (formerly E-13) and MST-8. The objective of this study was to design a testbed, with accompanying finite element models, to quantify, reduce, and propagate measurement uncertainties in contact thermal conductance measurements between two mating components in WR-like thermal environments. The knowledge gained through this simplified experiment would educate more complex assessments and interaction conditions with WR-like materials and geometries.
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This documentary film was made in 1989 about the methods used by each country to monitor the others weapons nuclear processes and is narrated by Charlton Heston. The DC was reviewed by Darrin Wallace (3/22/22) and confirmed unclassified to move from the red network to the yellow, but it still requires LA-UR to be assigned.
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