SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty characterization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2021

Atacama Cosmology Telescope measurements of a large sample of candidates from the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey: Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect confirmation of MaDCoWS candidates using ACT

Context. Galaxy clusters are an important tool for cosmology, and their detection and characterization are key goals for current and future surveys. Using data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey (MaDCoWS) located 2839 significant galaxy overdensities at redshifts 0.7 . z . 1.5, which included extensive follow-up imaging from the Spitzer Space Telescope to determine cluster richnesses. Concurrently, the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) has produced large area millimeter-wave maps in three frequency bands along with a large catalog of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ)-selected clusters as part of its Data Release 5 (DR5). Aims. We aim to verify and characterize MaDCoWS clusters using measurements of, or limits on, their thermal SZ effect signatures. We also use these detections to establish the scaling relation between SZ mass and the MaDCoWS-defined richness. Methods. Using the maps and cluster catalog from DR5, we explore the scaling between SZ mass and cluster richness. We do this by comparing cataloged detections and extracting individual and stacked SZ signals from the MaDCoWS cluster locations. We use complementary radio survey data from the Very Large Array, submillimeter data from Herschel, and ACT 224 GHz data to assess the impact of contaminating sources on the SZ signals from both ACT and MaDCoWS clusters. We use a hierarchical Bayesian model to fit the mass-richness scaling relation, allowing for clusters to be drawn from two populations: one, a Gaussian centered on the mass-richness relation, and the other, a Gaussian centered on zero SZ signal. Results. We find that MaDCoWS clusters have submillimeter contamination that is consistent with a gray-body spectrum, while the ACT clusters are consistent with no submillimeter emission on average. Additionally, the intrinsic radio intensities of ACT clusters are lower than those of MaDCoWS clusters, even when the ACT clusters are restricted to the same redshift range as the MaDCoWS clusters. We find the best-fit ACT SZ mass versus MaDCoWS richness scaling relation has a slope of p1 = 1.84+0.15 −0.14, where the slope is defined as M ∝ λ p1 15 and λ15 is the richness. We also find that the ACT SZ signals for a significant fraction (∼57%) of the MaDCoWS sample can statistically be described as being drawn from a noise-like distribution, indicating that the candidates are possibly dominated by low-mass and unvirialized systems that are below the mass limit of the ACT sample. Further, we note that a large portion of the optically confirmed ACT clusters located in the same volume of the sky as MaDCoWS are not selected by MaDCoWS, indicating that the MaDCoWS sample is not complete with respect to SZ selection. Finally, we find that the radio loud fraction of MaDCoWS clusters increases with richness, while we find no evidence that the submillimeter emission of the MaDCoWS clusters evolves with richness. Conclusions. We conclude that the original MaDCoWS selection function is not well defined and, as such, reiterate the MaDCoWS collaboration’s recommendation that the sample is suited for probing cluster and galaxy evolution, but not cosmological analyses. We find a best-fit mass-richness relation slope that agrees with the published MaDCoWS preliminary results. Additionally, we find that while the approximate level of infill of the ACT and MaDCoWS cluster SZ signals (1–2%) is subdominant to other sources of uncertainty for current generation experiments, characterizing and removing this bias will be critical for next-generation experiments hoping to constrain cluster masses at the sub-percent level.

large↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of Satellite Ocean Colour Radiometry and Derived Geophysical Products

Standardization of methods to assess and assign quality metrics to satellite ocean color radiometry and derived geophysical products has become paramount with the inclusion of the marine reflectance and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) as essential climate variables (ECV; [1]) and the recognition that optical remote sensing of the oceans can only contribute to climate research if and when a continuous succession of satellite missions can be shown to collectively provide a consistent, long-term record with known uncertainties. In 20 years, the community has made significant advancements toward that objective, but providing a complete uncertainty budget for all products and for all conditions remains a daunting task. In the retrieval of marine water-leaving radiance from observed top-of-atmosphere radiance, the sources of uncertainties include those associated with propagation of sensor noise and radiometric calibration and characterization errors, as well as a multitude of uncertainties associated with the modeling and removal of effects from the atmosphere and sea surface. This chapter describes some common approaches used to assess quality and consistency of ocean color satellite products and reviews the current status of uncertainty quantification in the field. Its focus is on the primary ocean color product, the spectrum of marine reflectance Rrs, but uncertainties in some derived products such as the Chla or inherent optical properties (IOPs) will also be considered.

Ocean↗

NASA NTRS1995

Harmonic oscillators and resonance series generated by a periodic unstable classical orbit

The presence of an unstable periodic classical orbit allows one to introduce the decay time as a purely classical magnitude: inverse of the Lyapunov index which characterizes the orbit instability. The Uncertainty Relation gives the corresponding resonance width which is proportional to the Planck constant. The more elaborate analysis is based on the parabolic equation method where the problem is effectively reduced to the multidimensional harmonic oscillator with the time-dependent frequency. The resonances form series in the complex energy plane which is equidistant in the direction perpendicular to the real axis. The applications of the general approach to various problems in atomic physics are briefly exposed.

Kazansky, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multi-Flight-Phase GPS Navigation Filter Applications to Terrestrial Vehicle Navigation and Positioning

A candidate onboard space navigation filter demonstrated excellent performance (less than 8 meter level RMS semi-major axis accuracy) in performing orbit determination of a low-Earth orbit Explorer satellite using single-frequency real GPS data. This performance is significantly better than predicted by other simulation studies using dual-frequency GPS data. The study results revealed the significance of two new modeling approaches evaluated in the work. One approach introduces a single-frequency ionospheric correction through pseudo-range and phase range averaging implementation. The other approach demonstrates a precise axis-dependent characterization of dynamic sample space uncertainty to compute a more accurate Kalman filter gain. Additionally, this navigation filter demonstrates a flexibility to accommodate both perturbational dynamic and observational biases required for multi-flight phase and inhomogeneous application environments. This paper reviews the potential application of these methods and the filter structure to terrestrial vehicle and positioning applications. Both the single-frequency ionospheric correction method and the axis-dependent state noise modeling approach offer valuable contributions in cost and accuracy improvements for terrestrial GPS receivers. With a modular design approach to either 'plug-in' or 'unplug' various force models, this multi-flight phase navigation filter design structure also provides a versatile GPS navigation software engine for both atmospheric and exo-atmospheric navigation or positioning use, thereby streamlining the flight phase or application-dependent software requirements. Thus, a standardized GPS navigation software engine that can reduce the development and maintenance cost of commercial GPS receivers is now possible.

Park, Young W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Multiple Use One-Sided Hypotheses Testing in Univariate Linear Calibration

Consider a normally distributed response variable, related to an explanatory variable through the simple linear regression model. Data obtained on the response variable, corresponding to known values of the explanatory variable (i.e., calibration data), are to be used for testing hypotheses concerning unknown values of the explanatory variable. We consider the problem of testing an unlimited sequence of one sided hypotheses concerning the explanatory variable, using the corresponding sequence of values of the response variable and the same set of calibration data. This is the situation of multiple use of the calibration data. The tests derived in this context are characterized by two types of uncertainties: one uncertainty associated with the sequence of values of the response variable, and a second uncertainty associated with the calibration data. We derive tests based on a condition that incorporates both of these uncertainties. The solution has practical applications in the decision limit problem. We illustrate our results using an example dealing with the estimation of blood alcohol concentration based on breath estimates of the alcohol concentration. In the example, the problem is to test if the unknown blood alcohol concentration of an individual exceeds a threshold that is safe for driving.

Krishnamoorthy, K.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Error Consistency Analysis Scheme for Infrared Ultraspectral Sounding Retrieval Error Budget Estimation

Great effort has been devoted towards validating geophysical parameters retrieved from ultraspectral infrared radiances obtained from satellite remote sensors. An error consistency analysis scheme (ECAS), utilizing fast radiative transfer model (RTM) forward and inverse calculations, has been developed to estimate the error budget in terms of mean difference and standard deviation of error in both spectral radiance and retrieval domains. The retrieval error is assessed through ECAS without relying on other independent measurements such as radiosonde data. ECAS establishes a link between the accuracies of radiances and retrieved geophysical parameters. ECAS can be applied to measurements from any ultraspectral instrument and any retrieval scheme with its associated RTM. In this manuscript, ECAS is described and demonstrated with measurements from the MetOp-A satellite Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). This scheme can be used together with other validation methodologies to give a more definitive characterization of the error and/or uncertainty of geophysical parameters retrieved from ultraspectral radiances observed from current and future satellite remote sensors such as IASI, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS).

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Controlled Ascent From the Surface of an Asteroid

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently investigating a conceptual robotic mission to collect a small boulder up to 4 m in diameter resting on the surface of a large Near Earth Asteroid (NEA). Because most NEAs are not well characterized, a great range of uncertainties in boulder mass properties and NEA surface characteristics must be considered in the design of this mission. These uncertainties are especially significant when the spacecraft ascends with the boulder in tow. The most important requirement during ascent is to keep the spacecraft in an upright posture to maintain healthy ground clearances for the two large solar arrays. This paper focuses on the initial stage (the first 50 m) of ascent from the surface. Specifically, it presents a sensitivity study of the solar array ground clearance, control authority, and accelerations at the array tips in the presence of a variety of uncertainties including various boulder sizes, densities, shapes and orientations, locations of the true center of mass, and push-off force distributions. Results are presented, and appropriate operations are recommended in the event some of the off-nominal cases occur.

Shen, Haijun↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Uncertainty of Biomass Estimates from LiDAR and SAR Across a Boreal Forest Structure Gradient

In this study, weexamined the uncertainty of aboveground live biomass (AGB) estimates based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements distributed across a low-biomass vegetation structure gradient fromforest to non-forest in boreal-like ecosystems. The conifer-dominant structure gradient was compiled from ground data amassed from multiple field expeditions in central Maine (USA), Aurskog (Norway), and across central Siberia (Russia). Single variable empirical models were built tomodel AGB fromremote sensingmetrics. Using thesemodels, we calculated a rootmean square error (RMSE) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of the RMSE fromthe difference between the remote sensing AGB predictions and the ground reference AGB estimates within AGB intervals across a 0-100 Mg ha(exp.−1) boreal forest structure gradient. The results show that the error in AGB predictions (RMSE) and the error uncertainty (the CI) from LiDAR and SAR change across a forest gradient. The errors of airborne LiDAR and SAR metrics and spaceborne LiDAR platforms show a general trend of reduced relative errors as AGBmagnitudes increase, particularly from0 to 60 Mg ha (exp.−1). Empirical models relating spaceborne metrics to AGB and estimates of spaceborne LiDAR error uncertainty demonstrate the difficulty of characterizing differences in AGB at the site-level with current spaceborne sensors, particularly below 80 Mg ha (exp.−1) with less than 50-100% error.

Taiga↗

NASA NTRS2019

SPARROW: Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds

The Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot (SPARROW) for Ocean Worlds was a Phase I mission concept study funded under the NASA NIAC program. This report represents the findings of that study and recommendations for future work. SPARROW, envisioned as a soccer ball-sized payload to a primary lander mission, is a propulsively hopping robot for the exploration of Europa's rugged, icy surface. A multi-thruster, passively gimballed robot within a protective, spherical shell, SPARROW is able to freely rotate, self-right, and tumble over chaotic terrains. Europa's abundant surface ice would be harvested as an in situ propellant source. The principal objective of SPARROW is to increase the science return of a Europa landed asset by enabling access to distal, spatially distributed geologic units. The design of mobility systems for Europa is challenging, due in part to its almost entirely unconstrained surface topography and strength. Images returned by Voyager and Galileo yielded resolutions on the order of hundreds of meters per pixel, with localized regions reaching 6 meters per pixelâ€”still far larger than a typical rover. A key benefit of SPARROW's hopping, impact-tolerant design, is that it eliminates the need for a priori information regarding terrain topography and surface strength; no surface reaction forces are required for motion. In this context, SPARROW is believed to be entirely terrain agnostic. In this report we detail the results of three study objectives: i) to quantify the energy required to collect surface ice, change its phase, and maintain propellant temperature, ii) to identify control and estimation strategies that enable SPARROW to successfully reach, and return from, regions of scientific interest, and iii) to characterize the impact of SPARROW's range on likely science return. Five water-based propellant architectures are presented alongside their mass, power, and volume requirements. Monte Carlo simulations of SPARROW hopping and tumbling over 1 km of glacial ice are summarized, characterizing SPARROW's sensitivity to uncertainty in: initial pose, thrust profile, and vehicle-terrain interaction. A science traceability matrix is presented, which details the effect of sortie range on three science goals: constraining Europa's evolutionary morphology, assessing sub-surface ocean habitability, and searching for life and/or biosignatures.

Autonomous↗

NASA NTRS2020

Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations Impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation Predictions: Case Studies from the NASA GEOS Seasonal Forecast System

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would have great societal benefit. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean salinity. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to improve the estimates of ocean density changes and associated near-surface mixing. For the first time, we assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these initializations impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using NASA’s coupled forecast system (GEOS-S2S-2). For all initialization experiments, all available sea level and in situ temperature and salinity observations are assimilated. Separate observing system experiments (OSE) additionally assimilate Aquarius, and SMAP, SMOS, and these datasets combined. We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing experiments with and without the application of SSS assimilation. Next, we compare case studies of coupled forecasts for the big 2015 El Niño, the 2017 La Niña, and the weak El Niño in 2018 that are initialized from GEOS-S2S-2 spring reanalyses that assimilate and withhold along-track SSS. For each of these ENSO-event case studies, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation with respect to observed NINO3.4 anomalies (or at least reduces the forecast uncertainty). Satellite SSS assimilation improved characterization of the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts. These results further underline the value of satellite SSS assimilation into operational forecast systems.

Eric Hackert↗

NASA NTRS2019

SPARROW: A Steam Propelled Autonomous Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds

This paper presents the results of a NIAC Phase I study into the use of a propulsively hopping robot for the exploration of Europa’s rugged, icy surface. Named the“Steam Propelled Retrieval Robot for Ocean Worlds,” SPARROW is a multi-thruster robot passively gimballed within a protective, spherical shell, which enables it to freely rotate, self-right, and tumble over chaotic terrains. SPARROW is envisioned as a soccerball-sized payload to a primary lander mission. Europa’s abundant surface ice would be harvested as an in situ propellant source. The principal objective of SPARROW would be to increase the science return of a Europa landed asset by enabling access to distal, spatially distributed geologic units. The design of mobility systems for Europa is challenging, due in part to its almost entirely unconstrained surface topography and strength. Images returned by Voyager and Galileo yielded resolutions on the order of hundreds of meters per pixel, with localized regions reaching 6 meters per pixel—still far larger than a typical rover. A key beneﬁt of SPARROW’s hopping, impact-tolerant design, is that it eliminates the need for a piori information on the terrain topography and surface strength; no surface reaction forces are required for motion. In this context, SPARROW is entirely terrain agnostic. In this paper we detail the results of three study objectives: i) to quantify the energy required to collect surface ice, change its phase, and maintain propellant temperature, ii) to identify control and estimation strategies that enable SPARROW to successfully reach, and return from, regions of scientiﬁc interest, and iii) to characterize the impact of SPARROW’s range on likely science return. Five water-based propellant architectures are presented alongside their mass, power, and volume requirements. Monte Carlo simulations of SPARROW hopping and tumbling over 1 km of glacial ice are summarized, characterizing SPARROW’s sensitivity to uncertainty in: initial conditions, thrust control, and cage-terrain interaction. Finally, a science traceability matrix is presented, which details the effect of sortie range on three science goals: constraining Europa’s evolutionary morphology, assessing sub-surface ocean habitability, and searching for life and/or biosignatures.

Phillips, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PACE OCI Flight Unit Pre-launch Spectral Characterization

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission [1] will extend and improve the data record of NASA’s satellite observations of global ocean biology, aerosols, and clouds. The Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) is the primary sensor on-board the PACE platform [2]. The OCI is a scanning radiometer with hyperspectral coverage from the ultraviolet (UV) to the near infrared (NIR) wavelength range and a fiber-coupled multiband filter spectrograph in the short-wave infrared (SWIR) spectral region. The OCI Flight Unit completed system level testing in November 2022 at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This paper presents the spectral characterization and performance of the OCI Flight Unit. The OCI Flight spectral performance was determined to be within design specifications and the characterization was measured within specified uncertainties.

PACE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pace Oci Flight Unit Pre-Launch Spectral Characterization

PACE↗

NASA NTRS2013

Lessons Learned from the AIRS Pre-Flight Radiometric Calibration

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flies on the NASA Aqua satellite and measures the upwelling hyperspectral earth radiance in the spectral range of 3.7-15.4 micron with a nominal ground resolution at nadir of 13.5 km. The AIRS spectra are achieved using a temperature controlled grating spectrometer and HgCdTe infrared linear arrays providing 2378 channels with a nominal spectral resolution of approximately 1200. The AIRS pre-flight tests that impact the radiometric calibration include a full system radiometric response (linearity), polarization response, and response vs scan angle (RVS). We re-derive the AIRS instrument radiometric calibration coefficients from the pre-flight polarization measurements, the response vs scan (RVS) angle tests as well as the linearity tests, and a recent lunar roll test that allowed the AIRS to view the moon. The data and method for deriving the coefficients is discussed in detail and the resulting values compared amongst the different tests. Finally, we examine the residual errors in the reconstruction of the external calibrator blackbody radiances and the efficacy of a new radiometric uncertainty model. Results show the radiometric calibration of AIRS to be excellent and the radiometric uncertainty model does a reasonable job of characterizing the errors.

Sounder↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robustness margin calculation with dynamic and real parametric uncertainty

The problem of robust stability in feedback control systems with real uncertain parameters and unmodeled dynamics, where the latter takes the form of one complex block dynamic uncertainty, is considered. A robustness margin Tm is defined with respect to such model uncertainty structure and robust stability is characterized in terms of it. An algorithm to calculate Tm and the closely related multivariable stability margin km and structured singular value mu measures of robust stability is developed. It is shown that other control problems, such as robust performance for real parametric uncertainty, can also be handled in this framework.

Sideris, Athanasios↗

NASA NTRS1991

Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

Kessler, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Characterization of Environmental Error Sources Affecting Electronically Scanned Pressure Transducers

Minimization of uncertainty is essential to extend the usable range of the 15-psid Electronically Scanned Pressure (ESP) transducer measurements to the low free-stream static pressures found in hypersonic wind tunnels. Statistical characterization of environmental error sources inducing much of this uncertainty requires a well defined and controlled calibration method. Employing such a controlled calibration system, several studies were conducted that provide quantitative information detailing the required controls needed to minimize environmental and human induced error sources. Results of temperature, environmental pressure, over-pressurization, and set point randomization studies for the 15-psid transducers are presented along with a comparison of two regression methods using data acquired with both 0.36-psid and 15-psid transducers. Together these results provide insight into procedural and environmental controls required for long term high-accuracy pressure measurements near 0.01 psia in the hypersonic testing environment using 15-psid ESP transducers.

Green, Del L.↗