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NASA NTRS2022

Reliability-Aware Requirements Development for Autonomy Software

Autonomy is the ability of a system to make decisions and take actions in the presence of uncertainty. Validating autonomy, therefore, is a matter of validating that the system makes intelligent decisions even when there might be discrepancies between the observed and the expected state of the world as well as when the possible outcome of each of the possible courses of action is uncertain. During the requirements engineering phase, the functions, including those that are required to be autonomous and their expected behavior are specified. However, in the case of autonomous software system, it is challenging to specify all possible scenarios that the software may encounter. Additionally, since autonomous behaviors cannot always be fully predetermined, it is difficult to reason about their completeness and correctness. While these challenges are also faced with non-autonomous system, they are more prevalent for autonomous system due to their complexity and emergent behavior. Our efforts have been three-fold. On one hand, we have developed a goal-based method for requirements decomposition. We have embedded this approach into a higher-level systems engineering framework and then developed methods for decision and reliability analysis within this framework. And finally, we use simulation analysis to validate the more theoretical methods and provide a feedback mechanism. The decision analysis approach (DA) helps in identifying and mitigating the run-time risks, by bringing to the forefront the uncertainties, decisions, interactions, and other factors that may cause autonomous software to make erroneous decisions. The DA framework is used to quantify, for each decision that the software can make, failure risk due to uncertainties. The information about the key decisions and circumstances that can cause autonomous system to make incorrect decisions are used to generate test scenarios to be run in a simulator to ensure that the system can handle error-prone circumstances. The results or outcomes from decisions, based on the simulated scenarios, can then be leveraged to further gain insight of the assured system. We combine a goal-based approach with simulation analysis to facilitate requirements development for autonomous systems and further provide a method for run-time systems level reliability considerations during the autonomous software development process. The DA and the reliability analysis methods provide a formalism for the consideration of uncertainty in the run time decision-making process for autonomous software. This formalism considers the uncertainty involved in the outcome of different courses of action, in terms of performance and cost, as well as a method to consider the system level reliability implications. System level reliability considerations for autonomous software decision making contribute to the satisfaction of the system level goals over the lifecycle of a given mission. We demonstrate our approach using a hypothetical rover path planning example. The requirements for our rover simulator are based on existing literature about Mars rovers and lessons learned from real world observations at JPL. The specifics of the autonomy design for the Mars rovers, that have not been previously cleared for external release, are not used for our demonstrations.

Lindvall, Mikael↗
NASA NTRS1990

Phase noise effects on turbulent weather radar spectrum parameter estimation

Accurate weather spectrum moment estimation is important in the use of weather radar for hazardous windshear detection. The effect of the stable local oscillator (STALO) instability (jitter) on the spectrum moment estimation algorithm is investigated. Uncertainty in the stable local oscillator will affect both the transmitted signal and the received signal since the STALO provides transmitted and reference carriers. The proposed approach models STALO phase jitter as it affects the complex autocorrelation of the radar return. The results can therefore by interpreted in terms of any source of system phase jitter for which the model is appropriate and, in particular, may be considered as a cumulative effect of all radar system sources.

Lee, Jonggil↗
NASA NTRS2003

Validation of an In-Water, Tower-Shading Correction Scheme

Large offshore structures used for the deployment of optical instruments can significantly perturb the intensity of the light field surrounding the optical measurement point, where different portions of the visible spectrum are subject to different shadowing effects. These effects degrade the quality of the acquired optical data and can reduce the accuracy of several derived quantities, such as those obtained by applying bio-optical algorithms directly to the shadow-perturbed data. As a result, optical remote sensing calibration and validation studies can be impaired if shadowing artifacts are not fully accounted for. In this work, the general in-water shadowing problem is examined for a particular case study. Backward Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer computations- performed in a vertically stratified, horizontally inhomogeneous, and realistic ocean-atmosphere system are shown to accurately simulate the shadow-induced relative percent errors affecting the radiance and irradiance data profiles acquired close to an oceanographic tower. Multiparameter optical data processing has provided adequate representation of experimental uncertainties allowing consistent comparison with simulations. The more detailed simulations at the subsurface depth appear to be essentially equivalent to those obtained assuming a simplified ocean-atmosphere system, except in highly stratified waters. MC computations performed in the simplified system can be assumed, therefore, to accurately simulate the optical measurements conducted under more complex sampling conditions (i.e., within waters presenting moderate stratification at most). A previously reported correction scheme, based on the simplified MC simulations, and developed for subsurface shadow-removal processing of in-water optical data taken close to the investigated oceanographic tower, is then validated adequately under most experimental conditions. It appears feasible to generalize the present tower-specific approach to solve other optical sensor shadowing problems pertaining to differently shaped deployment platforms, and also including surrounding structures and instrument casings.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Hall Thruster Thermal Modeling and Test Data Correlation

The life of Hall Effect thrusters are primarily limited by plasma erosion and thermal related failures. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in cooperation with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have recently completed development of a Hall thruster with specific emphasis to mitigate these limitations. Extending the operational life of Hall thursters makes them more suitable for some of NASA's longer duration interplanetary missions. This paper documents the thermal model development, refinement and correlation of results with thruster test data. Correlation was achieved by minimizing uncertainties in model input and recognizing the relevant parameters for effective model tuning. Throughout the thruster design phase the model was used to evaluate design options and systematically reduce component temperatures. Hall thrusters are inherently complex assemblies of high temperature components relying on internal conduction and external radiation for heat dispersion and rejection. System solutions are necessary in most cases to fully assess the benefits and/or consequences of any potential design change. Thermal model correlation is critical since thruster operational parameters can push some components/materials beyond their temperature limits. This thruster incorporates a state-of-the-art magnetic shielding system to reduce plasma erosion and to a lesser extend power/heat deposition. Additionally a comprehensive thermal design strategy was employed to reduce temperatures of critical thruster components (primarily the magnet coils and the discharge channel). Long term wear testing is currently underway to assess the effectiveness of these systems and consequently thruster longevity.

Hall thruster↗
NASA NTRS2021

A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon-climate model Hector v.2.3.pf

Permafrost currently stores more than a fourth of global soil carbon. A warming climate makes this carbon increasingly vulnerable to decomposition and release into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. The resulting climate feedback can be estimated using land surface models, but the high complexity and computational cost of these models make it challenging to use them for estimating uncertainty, exploring novel scenarios, and coupling with other models. We have added a representation of permafrost to the simple, open-source global carbon–climate model Hector, calibrated to be consistent with both historical data and 21st century Earth system model projections of permafrost thaw. We include permafrost as a separate land carbon pool that becomes available for decomposition into both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) once thawed; the thaw rate is controlled by region-specific air temperature increases from a preindustrial baseline. We found that by 2100 thawed permafrost carbon emissions increased Hector’s atmospheric CO2 concentration by 5 %–7 % and the atmospheric CH4 concentration by 7 %–12 %, depending on the future scenario, resulting in 0.2–0.25 ∘C of additional warming over the 21st century. The fraction of thawed permafrost carbon available for decomposition was the most significant parameter controlling the end-of-century temperature change in the model, explaining around 70 % of the temperature variance, and was distantly followed by the initial stock of permafrost carbon, which contributed to about 10 % of the temperature variance. The addition of permafrost in Hector provides a basis for the exploration of a suite of science questions, as Hector can be cheaply run over a wide range of parameter values to explore uncertainty and can be easily coupled with integrated assessment and other human system models to explore the economic consequences of warming from this feedback.

Dawn L. Woodard↗
NASA NTRS2001

The 3D Recognition, Generation, Fusion, Update and Refinement (RG4) Concept

This paper describes an active (real time) recognition strategy whereby information is inferred iteratively across several viewpoints in descent imagery. We will show how we use inverse theory within the context of parametric model generation, namely height and spectral reflection functions, to generate model assertions. Using this strategy in an active context implies that, from every viewpoint, the proposed system must refine its hypotheses taking into account the image and the effect of uncertainties as well. The proposed system employs probabilistic solutions to the problem of iteratively merging information (images) from several viewpoints. This involves feeding the posterior distribution from all previous images as a prior for the next view. Novel approaches will be developed to accelerate the inversion search using novel statistic implementations and reducing the model complexity using foveated vision. Foveated vision refers to imagery where the resolution varies across the image. In this paper, we allow the model to be foveated where the highest resolution region is called the foveation region. Typically, the images will have dynamic control of the location of the foveation region. For descent imagery in the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) process, it is possible to have more than one foveation region. This research initiative is directed towards descent imagery in connection with NASA's EDL applications. Three-Dimensional Model Recognition, Generation, Fusion, Update, and Refinement (RGFUR or RG4) for height and the spectral reflection characteristics are in focus for various reasons, one of which is the prospect that their interpretation will provide for real time active vision for automated EDL.

Maluf, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Human-Automation Allocations for Current Robotic Space Operations

Within the Human Research Program, one risk delineates the uncertainty surrounding crew working with automation and robotics in spaceflight. The Risk of Inadequate Design of Human and Automation/Robotic Integration (HARI) is concerned with the detrimental effects on crew performance due to ineffective user interfaces, system designs and/or functional task allocation, potentially compromising mission success and safety. Risk arises because we have limited experience with complex automation and robotics. One key gap within HARI, is the gap related to functional allocation. The gap states: We need to evaluate, develop, and validate methods and guidelines for identifying human-automation/robot task information needs, function allocation, and team composition for future long duration, long distance space missions. Allocations determine the human-system performance as it identifies the functions and performance levels required by the automation/robotic system, and in turn, what work the crew is expected to perform and the necessary human performance requirements. Allocations must take into account each of the human, automation, and robotic systems capabilities and limitations. Some functions may be intuitively assigned to the human versus the robot, but to optimize efficiency and effectiveness, purposeful role assignments will be required. The role of automation and robotics will significantly change in future exploration missions, particularly as crew becomes more autonomous from ground controllers. Thus, we must understand the suitability of existing function allocation methods within NASA as well as the existing allocations established by the few robotic systems that are operational in spaceflight. In order to evaluate future methods of robotic allocations, we must first benchmark the allocations and allocation methods that have been used. We will present 1) documentation of human-automation-robotic allocations in existing, operational spaceflight systems; and 2) To gather existing lessons learned and best practices in these role assignments, from spaceflight operational experience of crew and ground teams that may be used to guide development for future systems. NASA and other space agencies have operational spaceflight experience with two key Human-Automation-Robotic (HAR) systems: heavy lift robotic arms and planetary robotic explorers. Additionally, NASA has invested in high-fidelity rover systems that can carry crew, building beyond Apollo's lunar rover. The heavy lift robotic arms reviewed are: Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS), Japanese Remote Manipulator System (JEMRMS), and the European Robotic Arm (ERA, designed but not deployed in space). The robotic rover systems reviewed are: Mars Exploration Rovers, Mars Science Laboratory rover, and the high-fidelity K10 rovers. Much of the design and operational feedback for these systems have been communicated to flight controllers and robotic design teams. As part of the mitigating the HARI risk for future human spaceflight operations, we must document function allocations between robots and humans that have worked well in practice.

robotic allocation↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗
NASA NTRS2000

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Aerodynamic Characterization of New Parachute Configurations for Low-Density Deceleration

The Low Density Supersonic Decelerator project performed a wind tunnel experiment on the structural design and geometric porosity of various sub-scale parachutes in order to inform the design of the 110ft nominal diameter flight test canopy. Thirteen different parachute configurations, including disk-gap-band, ring sail, disk sail, and star sail canopies, were tested at the National Full-scale Aerodynamics Complex 80- by 120-foot Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. Canopy drag load, dynamic pressure, and canopy position data were recorded in order to quantify there lative drag performance and stability of the various canopies. Desirable designs would yield increased drag above the disk-gap-band with similar, or improved, stability characteristics. Ring sail parachutes were tested at geometric porosities ranging from 10% to 22% with most of the porosity taken from the shoulder region near the canopy skirt. The disk sail canopy replaced the rings lot portion of the ring sail canopy with a flat circular disk and wastested at geometric porosities ranging from 9% to 19%. The star sail canopy replaced several ringsail gores with solid gores and was tested at 13% geometric porosity. Two disk sail configurations exhibited desirable properties such as an increase of 6-14% in the tangential force coefficient above the DGB with essentially equivalent stability. However, these data are presented with caveats including the inherent differences between wind tunnel and flight behavior and qualitative uncertainty in the aerodynamic coefficients.

parachute↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Kestrel IDDES Simulations for SLS Transition Analysis

Complex computational simulations are needed to support the Space Launch System (SLS) program, and the fidelity of the computational results must be defended. More specifically, a number of databases are produced for the transition phase of flight, which occurs after the rocket clears the tower but before reaching transonic speeds. In an effort to reduce computational uncertainty, many of the computational parameters were altered to determine the sensitivity of the results to the value of the parameter and then updating the best practice procedures. The baseline routines were developed over many years through the maturation of the SLS program, and this paper delivers a detailed discussion of these baseline results. This section is followed by demonstration of perturbing some of the more significant parameters, including time step and turbulence model, and concluded with a summary of the herein determined best practices for such analysis.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2020

Adaptive, Model-Driven Observation for Earth Science

In this article we introduce a preliminary effort to apply an adaptive and model-driven sensing framework to the study of large scale storms. Such systems pose great challenges as studying complex, fast developing Earth science phenomena such as hurricanes have significant spatial extent and complex temporal evolution making comprehensive sensing of the entire phenomena prohibitive. We use adaptive sensing to direct sensing in an autonomous and intelligent cycle. We show how online analysis would increase the knowledge of the event and decrease uncertainty in predictions.

Swope, J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions with the low-level wind shear. Consequently, precipitation processes can be more vigorous. For example,, the evaporative cooling is more than two times stronger in the lower troposphere with high CCN for the Pacific case. Sensitivity tests also suggest that ice processes are crucial for suppressing precipitation in the Oklahoma case with high CCN.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2011

Global Precipitation Measurement, Validation, and Applications Integrated Hydrologic Validation to Improve Physical Precipitation Retrievals for GPM

Land surface modeling and data assimilation can provide dynamic land surface state variables necessary to support physical precipitation retrieval algorithms over land. It is well-known that surface emission, particularly over the range of frequencies to be included in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), is sensitive to land surface states, including soil properties, vegetation type and greenness, soil moisture, surface temperature, and snow cover, density, and grain size. In order to investigate the robustness of both the land surface model states and the microwave emissivity and forward radiative transfer models, we have undertaken a multi-site investigation as part of the NASA Precipitation Measurement Missions (PMM) Land Surface Characterization Working Group. Specifically, we will demonstrate the performance of the Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Peters-Lidard et aI., 2007; Kumar et al., 2006) coupled to the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA's) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM; Weng, 2007; van Deist, 2009). The land surface is characterized by complex physical/chemical constituents and creates temporally and spatially heterogeneous surface properties in response to microwave radiation scattering. The uncertainties in surface microwave emission (both surface radiative temperature and emissivity) and very low polarization ratio are linked to difficulties in rainfall detection using low-frequency passive microwave sensors (e.g.,Kummerow et al. 2001). Therefore, addressing these issues is of utmost importance for the GPM mission. There are many approaches to parameterizing land surface emission and radiative transfer, some of which have been customized for snow (e.g., the Helsinki University of Technology or HUT radiative transfer model;) and soil moisture (e.g., the Land Surface Microwave Emission Model or LSMEM).

Peters-Lidar, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Pilot Project for Quantifying the Effect of Medical Provider Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities on Outcomes for Spaceflight Using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

In order to enable the future of long-duration deep space exploration we must confront the uncertainty in medical risk. Limitations of communication, resupply, and evacuation in deep space will require a high degree of crew autonomy and accurate risk assessment will be critical to ensure adequate crew training and medical system design. To address this, NASA’s Human Research Program Exploration Medical Capability Element has developed the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces Tool (IMPACT). IMPACT is a suite of tools that can provide evidence-based, data-driven trade space assessments between available medical resources in the mass- and volume-constrained environment of a deep space exploration vehicle. In the current model, medical conditions either can or cannot be treated based on the availability of medical system resources and equipment. However, medical outcomes often depend just as much on the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA) of the provider operating the system. This paper presents a method for modeling and quantifying the effect of medical officer KSA on medically relevant mission risk outcomes during spaceflight.

capabilities↗
NASA NTRS1983

Observations of spectroscopic binaries at ultraviolet and red wavelengths

The use of IUE-satellite and ground-based-Reticon observations for the study of spectroscopic binaries is examined, and sample data from the Reticon are presented. IUE radial-velocity determinations with uncertainties as low as 2-5 km/sec should be possible for binaries with early-type secondary components, using UV spectral lines where contamination by the later-type primary is reduced. The Reticon solid-state photodiode-array detector has been used at the coudefocus of the 2.7-m telescope at McDonald Observatory for observation of complex multiple systems in the 400-950-nm range with a quantum efficiency of 40-80 percent and resolution of 20-30 pm at 440 pm/mm. The fundamental parameters of 15 systems observed with this apparatus are listed in a table, and two sample spectra are shown.

Fekel, F. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A comparison of 8.415-, 32.0- and 565646-GHz deep space telemetry links

An economic and performance comparison is made of spacecraft telecommunication links at 8.415, 32.0, and 565646 GHz (0.53-micron wavelength) for the return of 3.43 x 10 to the 11th power bits from a Saturn Orbiter/Titan Probe mission in year 2000. Technical performance and costs for both ends of the links are included. Spacecraft antenna or telescope efficiencies, pointing losses, ground-based or Earth-orbiting relay terminals efficiencies, noise temperatures, recurring and nonrecurring engineering, and maintenance and operations costs are modeled. Weather effects, dc-to-RF or laser power conversion efficiencies, gravity and other environment distortions gain reductions, and the cost of pointing and tracking are analyzed. The effort is focused primarily on the microwave frequency links. There are large uncertainties in the cost results, but conclusions indicate that for a mid-1990's launch, the Ka-band system is as cost effective as X-band. The Ka-band system has a data rate advantage as compared to the X-band system for the same dc power input to the spacecraft. The magnitude of the advantage is a complex function of the weather at the DSN stations and the elevation angle of the ground antenna. A simple numerical comparison of the advantage is difficult and curves are provided. The optical frequency link is more costly based on the launch-to-orbit costs for the orbiting terminal. A more detailed study of the optical system is recommended to quantify astrometric tracking benefits and improve the accuracy of the cost estimate.

Dickinson, R. M.↗