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Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Evaluation of the Global Aerosol Microphysical ModelE2-TOMAS Model Against Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the- art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various observations including aerosol precursor gas concentrations, aerosol mass and number concentrations, and aerosol optical depths. Additionally, global budgets in ModelE2-TOMAS are compared with those of other global aerosol models, and the ModelE2-TOMAS model is compared to the default aerosol model in ModelE2, which is a one-moment aerosol (OMA) model (i.e. no aerosol microphysics). Overall, the ModelE2- TOMAS predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement (mostly within a factor of 2) with observations of sulfur species and other aerosol components as well as aerosol optical depth. However, ModelE2-TOMAS (as well as ModelE2-OMA) cannot capture the observed vertical distribution of sulfur dioxide over the Pacific Ocean, possibly due to overly strong convective transport and over-predicted precipitation. The ModelE2-TOMAS model simulates observed aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations roughly within a factor of 2. Anthropogenic aerosol burdens in ModelE2-OMA differ from ModelE2-TOMAS by a few percent to a factor of 2 regionally, mainly due to differences in aerosol processes including deposition, cloud processing, and emission parameterizations. We observed larger differences for naturally emitted aerosols such as sea salt and mineral dust, as those emission rates are quite different due to different upper size cutoff assumptions.

Lee, Y. H.↗

Volume 35, AMT-1 Cruise Report and Preliminary Results

This report documents the scientific activities on board the Royal Research Ship (RRS) 'James Clark Ross' during the irst Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT-1), 21 September to 24 October 1995. The ship sailed from Grimsby (England) for Montevideo (Uruguay) and then continued on to Stanley (Falkland Islands). The primary objective of the AMT program is to investigate basic biological processes in the open Atlantic Ocean over very broad spatial scales. For AMT-1, the meridional range covered was approximately 50 deg N to 50 deg S or nearly 8,000 nmi. The measurements to be taken during the AMT cruises are fundamental for the calibration, validation, and continuing understanding of remotely sensed observations of biological oceanography. They are also important for understanding plankton community structure over latitudinal scales and the role of the world ocean in global carbon cycles. During AMT-1 a variety of instruments were used to map the physical, chemical, and biological structure of the upper 200 m of the water column. Ocean color measurements were made using state-of-the-art sensors, whose calibration was traceable to the highest international standards. New advances in fluorometry were used to measure photosynthetic activity, which was then used to further interpret primary productivity. A unique set of samples and data were collected for the planktonic assemblages that vary throughout the range of the transect. These data will yield new interpretations on community composition and their role in carbon cycling. While the various provinces of the Atlantic Ocean were being crossed, the partial pressure of CO2 was related to biological productivity. This comparison revealed the areas of drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and how these areas relate to the surrounding biological productivity. These data, plus the measurements of light attenuation and phytoplankton optical properties, will be used as a primary input for basin-scale biological productivity models to help develop ecosystem dynamics models which will be important for improving the forecasting abilities of modelers. The AMT program is also attempting to meet the needs of international agencies in their implementation of Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Ocean Studies (SIMBIOS), a program to develop a methodology and operational capability to combine data products from the various ocean color satellite missions.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

On the Pathways of the Return Flow of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Tropical Atlantic

A numerical model of the tropical Atlantic ocean is used to investigate the upper layer pathways of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the tropical Atlantic. The main focus of this thesis is on those parts of the tropical circulation that are thought to be important for the MOC return flow, but whose dynamics have not been understood yet. It is shown how the particular structure of the tropical gyre and the MOO act to inhibit the flow of North Atlantic water into the equatorial thermocline. As a result, the upper layers of the tropical Atlantic are mainly fed by water from the South Atlantic. The processes that carry the South Atlantic water across the tropical Atlantic into the North Atlantic as part of the MOO are described here, and three processes that were hitherto not understood are explained as follows: The North Brazil Current rings are created as the result of the reflection of Rossby waves at the South American coast. These Rossby waves are generated by the barotropically unstable North Equatorial Countercurrent. The deep structure of the rings can be explained by merger of the wave's anticyclones with the deeper intermediate eddies that are generated as the intermediate western boundary current crosses the equator. The bands of strong zonal velocity in intermediate depths along the equator have hitherto been explained as intermediate currents. Here, an alternative interpretation of the observations is offered: The Eulerian mean flow along the equator is negligible and the observations are the signature of strong seasonal Rossby waves. The previous interpretation of the observations can then be explained as aliasing of the tropical wave field. The Tsuchyia Jets are driven by the Eliassen-Palm flux of the tropical instability waves. The equatorial current system with its strong shears is unstable and generates tropical instability waves.

Jochum, Markus↗

Can Fractional Crystallization of a Lunar Magma Ocean Produce the Lunar Crust?

New techniques enable the study of Apollo samples and lunar meteorites in unprecedented detail, and recent orbital spectral data reveal more about the lunar farside than ever before, raising new questions about the supposed simplicity of lunar geology. Nevertheless, crystallization of a global-scale magma ocean remains the best model to account for known lunar lithologies. Crystallization of a lunar magma ocean (LMO) is modeled to proceed by two end-member processes - fractional crystallization from (mostly) the bottom up, or initial equilibrium crystallization as the magma is vigorously convecting and crystals remain entrained, followed by crystal settling and a final period of fractional crystallization [1]. Physical models of magma viscosity and convection at this scale suggest that both processes are possible. We have been carrying out high-fidelity experimental simulations of LMO crystallization using two bulk compositions that can be regarded as end-members in the likely relevant range: Taylor Whole Moon (TWM) [2] and Lunar Primitive Upper Mantle (LPUM) [3]. TWM is enriched in refractory elements by 1.5 times relative to Earth, whereas LPUM is similar to the terrestrial primitive upper mantle, with adjustments made for the depletion of volatile alkalis observed on the Moon. Here we extend our earlier equilibrium-crystallization experiments [4] with runs simulating full fractional crystallization

Rapp, Jennifer F.↗

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗

Long wavelength gravity and topography anomalies

It is shown that gravity and topography anomalies on the earth's surface may provide new information about deep processes occurring in the earth, such as those associated with mantle convection. Two main reasons are cited for this. The first is the steady improvement that has occurred in the resolution of the long wavelength gravity field, particularly in the wavelength range of a few hundred to a few thousand km, mainly due to increased coverage of terrestrial gravity measurements and the development of radar altimeters in orbiting satellites. The second reason is the large number of numerical and laboratory experiments of convection in the earth, including some with deformable upper and lower boundaries and temperature-dependent viscosity. The oceans are thought to hold the most promise for determining long wavelength gravity and topography anomalies, since their evolution has been relatively simple in comparison with that of the continents. It is also shown that good correlation between long wavelength gravity and topography anomalies exists over some portions of the ocean floor

Watts, A. B.↗

Zinc isotope constraints on the cycling of carbon in the Bermuda mantle source

Volatile recycling and storage in the mantle transition zone (MTZ) is important for the refertilization of the upper mantle and is associated with the generation of high-µ (HIMU, where µ is 238 U/ 204 Pb) mantle. One way to probe the MTZ and the processes associated with mantle convection is to sample lavas that originate from the shallow mantle and were contaminated by upwelling from the MTZ, such as at the previously proposed shallow plume of Bermuda. Here we present the first δ 66 Zn isotopic compositions of Bermuda silica-undersaturated and silica-saturated lavas to explore the origin of the carbon-rich lithologies and the genesis of the large seamount found in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Contrasting with global δ 66 Zn data sets, our results (δ 66 Zn between 0.24 ± 0.04 and 0.41 ± 0.04) do not support direct sampling of recycled marine carbonates in the Bermuda HIMU mantle. Instead, we show that δ 66 Zn fractionation toward higher values is associated with magmatic processes and incorporation of carbon sourced from deep fluids associated with the formation of carbonatites. These carbon-rich fluids are likely sourced from the metasomatic reactions between the subducted cold slab of the Iapetus oceanic lithosphere ca. 500 Ma and the thickened continental lithospheric mantle of Pangea. Melting of this metasomatized mantle was triggered by the arrival of the Farallon slab to the eastern North American margin in the late Cenozoic via shallow convection.

Mazza, Sarah E. [Smith College, Northampton, MA (U↗

Pressure regimes and core formation in the accreting earth

Recent work suggests that a large degree of melting is required to segregate metal from silicates, suggesting a connection with the formation of magma oceans. At low pressures metallic liquids do not wet silicate minerals, preventing the metal from aggregating into large masses that can sink. At high pressures, above 25 GPa, the dihedral angles of grains in contact with oxygen-rich metallic liquids may be reduced enough to allow percolation of metal, but this has not been confirmed. Physical models of core formation and accretion may therefore involve the formation of magma oceans and the segregation of metal at both high and low pressures. Models of core formation involving different pressure regimes are discussed as well as chemical evidence bearing on the models. Available geophysical data is ambiguous. The nature of the 670 km boundary (chemical difference or strictly phase change) between the upper and lower mantle is in doubt. There is some evidence that plumes are derived from the lower mantle, and seismic tomography strongly indicates that penetration of subducting oceanic crust into the lower mantle, but the tomography data also indicates that the 670 km discontinuity is a significant barrier to general mantle convection. The presence of the D' layer at the base of the lower mantle could be a reaction zone between the mantle and core indicating core-mantle disequilibrium, or D' layer could be subducted material. The abundance of the siderophile elements in the mantle could provide clues to the importance of high pressure processes in Earth, but partition coefficients at high pressures are only beginning to be measured.

Newsom, H. E.↗

Mechanisms Regulating Deep Moist Convection and Sea-Surface Temperatures of the Tropics

Despite numerous previous studies, two relationships between deep convection and the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the tropics remain unclear. The first is the cause for the sudden emergence of deep convection at about 28 deg SST, and the second is its proximity to the highest observed SST of about 30 C. Our analysis provides a rational explanation for both by utilizing the Improved Meteorological (IMET) buoy data together with radar rainfall retrievals and atmospheric soundings provided by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE). The explanation relies on the basic principles of moist convection as enunciated in the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. Our analysis shows that an SST range of 28-29 C is necessary for "charging" the atmospheric boundary layer with sufficient moist static energy that can enable the towering convection to reach up to the 200 hPa level. In the IMET buoy data, the changes in surface energy fluxes associated with different rainfall amounts show that the deep convection not only reduces the solar flux into the ocean with a thick cloud cover, but it also generates downdrafts which bring significantly cooler and drier air into the boundary-layer thereby augmenting oceanic cooling by increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. In this way, the ocean seasaws between a net energy absorber for non-raining and a net energy supplier for deep-convective raining conditions. These processes produce a thermostat-like control of the SST. The data also shows that convection over the warm pool is modulated by dynamical influences of large-scale circulation embodying tropical easterly waves (with a 5-day period) and MJOs (with 40-day period); however, the quasi-permanent feature of the vertical profile of moist static energy, which is primarily maintained by the large-scale circulation and thermodynamical forcings, is vital for both the 28 C SST for deep convection and its upper limit at about 30 C.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Interpretation of TOMS Observations of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone with a Global Model and In Situ Observations

We interpret the distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by using a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and additional information from in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM TTOCs capture 44% of the variance of monthly mean TOMS TTOCs from the convective cloud differential method (CCD) with no global bias. Major discrepancies are found over northern Africa and south Asia where the TOMS TTOCs do not capture the seasonal enhancements from biomass burning found in the model and in aircraft observations. A characteristic feature of these northern topical enhancements, in contrast to southern tropical enhancements, is that they are driven by the lower troposphere where the sensitivity of TOMS is poor due to Rayleigh scattering. We develop an efficiency correction to the TOMS retrieval algorithm that accounts for the variability of ozone in the lower troposphere. This efficiency correction increases TTOC's over biomass burning regions by 3-5 Dobson units (DU) and decreases them by 2-5 DU over oceanic regions, improving the agreement between CCD TTOCs and in situ observations. Applying the correction to CCD TTOCs reduces by approximately DU the magnitude of the "tropical Atlantic paradox" [Thompson et al, 2000], i.e. the presence of a TTOC enhancement over the southern tropical Atlantic during the northern African biomass burning season in December-February. We reproduce the remainder of the paradox in the model and explain it by the combination of upper tropospheric ozone production from lightning NOx, peristent subsidence over the southern tropical Atlantic as part of the Walker circulation, and cross-equatorial transport of upper tropospheric ozone from northern midlatitudes in the African "westerly duct." These processes in the model can also account for the observed 13-17 DU persistent wave-1 pattern in TTOCs with a maximum above the tropical Atlantic and a minimum over the tropical Pacific during all seasons. The photochemical effects of mineral dust have only a minor role on the modeled distribution of TTOCs, including over northern Africa, due to multiple competing effects. The photochemical effects of mineral dust globally decease annual mean OH concentrations by 9%. A global lightning NOx source of 6 Tg N yr(sup -1) in the model produces a simulation that is most consistent with TOMS and in situ observations.

Martin, Randall V.↗

Geochemical Evidence for a Terrestrial Magma Ocean

The aftermath of phase separation and crystal-liquid fractionation in a magma ocean should leave a planet geochemically differentiated. Subsequent convective and other mixing processes may operate over time to obscure geochemical evidence of magma ocean differentiation. On the other hand, core formation is probably the most permanent, irreversible part of planetary differentiation. Hence the geochemical traces of core separation should be the most distinct remnants left behind in the mantle and crust, In the case of the Earth, core formation apparently coincided with a magma ocean that extended to a depth of approximately 1000 km. Evidence for this is found in high pressure element partitioning behavior of Ni and Co between liquid silicate and liquid iron alloy, and with the Ni-Co ratio and the abundance of Ni and Co in the Earth's upper mantle. A terrestrial magma ocean with a depth of 1000 km will solidify from the bottom up and first crystallize in the perovskite stability field. The largest effect of perovskite fractionation on major element distribution is to decrease the Si-Mg ratio in the silicate liquid and increase the Si-Mg ratio in the crystalline cumulate. Therefore, if a magma ocean with perovskite fractionation existed, then one could expect to observe an upper mantle with a lower than chondritic Si-Mg ratio. This is indeed observed in modern upper mantle peridotites. Although more experimental work is needed to fully understand the high-pressure behavior of trace element partitioning, it is likely that Hf is more compatible than Lu in perovskite-silicate liquid pairs. Thus, perovskite fractionation produces a molten mantle with a higher than chondritic Lu-Hf ratio. Arndt and Blichert-Toft measured Hf isotope compositions of Barberton komatiites that seem to require a source region with a long-lived, high Lu-Hf ratio. It is plausible that that these Barberton komatiites were generated within the majorite stability field by remelting a perovskite-depleted part of the upper mantle transition zone.

Agee, Carl B.↗

Tropical Convective Responses to Microphysical and Radiative Processes: A Sensitivity Study With a 2D Cloud Resolving Model

Prognostic cloud schemes are increasingly used in weather and climate models in order to better treat cloud-radiation processes. Simplifications are often made in such schemes for computational efficiency, like the scheme being used in the National Centers for Environment Prediction models that excludes some microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction. In this study, sensitivity tests with a 2D cloud resolving model are carried out to examine effects of the excluded microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction on tropical thermodynamics and cloud properties. The model is integrated for 10 days with the imposed vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The experiment excluding the depositional growth of snow from cloud ice shows anomalous growth of cloud ice and more than 20% increase of fractional cloud cover, indicating that the lack of the depositional snow growth causes unrealistically large mixing ratio of cloud ice. The experiment excluding the precipitation-radiation interaction displays a significant cooling and drying bias. The analysis of heat and moisture budgets shows that the simulation without the interaction produces more stable upper troposphere and more unstable mid and lower troposphere than does the simulation with the interaction. Thus, the suppressed growth of ice clouds in upper troposphere and stronger radiative cooling in mid and lower troposphere are responsible for the cooling bias, and less evaporation of rain associated with the large-scale subsidence induces the drying in mid and lower troposphere.

Li, Xiao-Fan↗

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Energy Balance: Relevance to Climate Sensitivity?

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of organization for tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, here we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged heat and moisture budget. One unresolved question concerns the degree to which observable variations in the "fast" processes (e.g. convection, radiative / turbulent fluxes) can inform our understanding of feedback mechanisms operable in the context of climate change. Our analysis use daily data from satellite observations, the Modern Era analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and other model integrations to address these questions: (i) How are tropospheric temperature variations related to that tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF), ice water path (IWP), and properties of warmer liquid clouds? (ii) What role does moisture transport play vis-a-vis ocean latent heat flux in enabling the evolution of deep convection to mediate PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007 GRL ) whereby a composite time series of various quantities over 60+ ISO events is built using tropical mean tropospheric temperature signal as a reference to which the variables are related at various lag times (from -30 to +30 days). The area of interest encompasses the global oceans between 20oN/S. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. The decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, is part of the response that constitutes a "discharge" / "recharge" mechanism that facilitates tropical heat balance maintenance on these time scales. However, water vapor and hydrologic scaling relationships for this mode of variability cast doubt on the utility of ISO variations as proxies for climate sensitivity response to external radiatively forced (e.g. greenhouse gas-induced) climate change.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Impact of Rainfall on Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains. While the winds associated with TCs tend to enhance mixing in the upper-ocean, the freshwater input from rain can stratify the water column and limit mixing. However, the extent to which the stabilizing effect of rainfall can compete with wind-induced mixing, and to what degree it modulates TC-induced sea surface cooling, remains unknown. Here we show, using a suite of observations, that heavy rains under weak TCs can significantly reduce the magnitude of cold wakes induced by them. Additionally, when compared to storms with low rain rates, the ocean surface under TCs with high rain rates freshens significantly and cools less. High-resolution climate model simulations and idealized experiments with an ocean mixed layer model support these results and reveal that oceanic mixing processes are primarily responsible for the reduced cooling under TCs, with a lesser role for surface fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effect of physical parameterizations and initial data on the numerical prediction of the President's Day cyclone

Results are presented from a series of forecast experiments which were conducted to assess the importance of large-scale dynamical processes, diabatic heating, and initial data to the prediction of the President's Day cyclone. The synoptic situation and NMC model forecasts for this case are summarized, and the analysis/forecast system and experiments are described. The GLAS Model forecast from the GLAS analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February is found to have correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. A forecast with surface heat and moisture fluxes eliminated failed to predict any cyclogenesis while a similar forecast with only the surface moisture flux excluded showed weak development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic.

Atlas, R.↗

Analysis of an Arctic cold air outbreak during autumn and related air mass transformations forced by surface changes and advection in higher altitudes

During marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), cold and dry Arctic air masses are transported from the central Arctic southward across the closed sea ice and much warmer open oceans. They experience significant transformations including a rapid heating and moistening, often leading to cloud formation. While intense wintertime MCAOs have been analyzed widely, the air mass transformations during other seasons have been studied sparsely. We address this gap by investigating an MCAO case observed in September 2020. To study the transformation processes, we combine the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate (ERA5), trajectory calculations, as well as shipborne and airborne measurements. In the central Arctic, observations acquired from aboard the research vessel (RV) Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition characterized the initial state of the air mass over closed sea ice. Trajectories indicated the pathway the air mass took from RV Polarstern southward to the Fram Strait. For the first 24 h of the southbound drift, the air masses remained quasi-stationary. Then, still 15 h ahead of the marginal sea ice zone, differential advection across the boundary layer flow introduced humidity and clouds at higher altitudes between 1.5 and 2.5 km. ERA5-derived temperature and humidity tendencies indicated complex vertical interactions. Radiative cloud-top cooling, entrainment, and turbulence were significantly reduced in the lower and enhanced in the upper advected cloud layer. Eventually, the lower cloud deck dissipated. After this confluence of 2 different air masses, observations gathered by Polar 5 in Fram Strait as part of the MOSAiC Airborne observations in the Central Arctic campaign revealed cloudy, moist layers throughout the lowest 3.5 km and an increasing boundary layer height. Comparing the initial with the final state 48 h later, the largest net heating of +8 K was found close to the surface, yet the largest net moistening of +2.5 g kg -1 at an altitude of 1 km, as the initial profile was exceptionally dry here. We conclude that the observed air mass transformations were driven by the surface changes from sea ice to open ocean but additionally strongly impacted by the differential advection of clouds and moisture across the near-surface MCAO flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A 3-D Model Analysis of The Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on the Sulfur Cycle Over the Pacific Ocean

The impact of anthropogenic activities on the SO2 and sulfate aerosol levels over the Pacific region is examined in the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We focus on the analysis of the data from the NASA Pacific Exploratory Missions (PEM) over the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific. These missions include PEM-West A in September-October 1991, when the Asian outflow was at the minimum but the upper atmosphere was heavily influenced by the Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and PEM-West B in March-April 1994 when the Asian outflow was at the maximum, and PEM-Tropics A in August-September at a region relatively free of direct anthropogenic influences. Specifically, we will examine the relative importance of anthropogenic, volcanic and biogenic sources to the SO2 and sulfate concentrations over the Pacific, and quantify the processes controlling the distributions of SO2 and sulfate in both the boundary layer and the free troposphere. We will also assess the global impact of SO2 emission in Asia on the sulfate aerosol loading.

Chin, Mian↗