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The following tasks related to the FY 74 Shuttle Users Analysis were completed: (1) STS user charge analysis, (2) business risk and value of operations in space (BRAVO) analysis, and (3) standardized subsystem module analysis. The first task was required to initiate the process of furnishing transportation charge estimates for STS payloads to STS users.
Analysis of aircraft noise recordings to determine experimental values of atmospheric sound absorption
Three NASA centers: Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Langley Research Center (LaRC), and Johnson Space Center (JSC) are currently involved in studying a family of single-stage- and two-stage-to-orbit (SSTO/TSTO) vehicles to serve as the next generation space transportation system (STS). A rocketed winged-body is the current focus. The configuration (WB001) is a vertically-launched, horizontally-landing system with circular cross-section. Preliminary aerodynamic data was generated by LaRC and is a combination of wind-tunnel data, empirical methods, and Aerodynamic Preliminary Analysis System-(APAS) generated values. JSC's efforts involve descent trajectory design, stability analysis, and flight control system synthesis. Analysis of WB001's static stability indicates instability in 'tuck' (C(sub mu) less than 0: Mach = 0.30, alpha greater than 3.25 deg; Mach = 0.60, alpha greater than 8.04), an unstable dihedral effects (C(sub l(beta)) greater than 0: Mach = 30,alpha less than 12 deg.; Mach = 0.60, alpha less than 10.00 deg.), and, most significantly, an unstable weathercock stability derivative, C(sub n(beta)), at all angles of attack and subsonic Mach numbers. Longitudinal trim solutions for Mach = 0.30 and 0.60 indicate flight path angle possibilities ranging from around 12 (M = 0.30) to slightly over 20 degrees at Mach = 0.60. Trim angles of attack increase from 6.24 at Mach 0.60 and 10,000 feet to 17.7 deg. at Mach 0.30, sea-level. Lateral trim was attempted for a design cross-wind of 25.0 knots. The current vehicle aerodynamic and geometric characteristics will only yield a lateral trim solution at impractical tip-fin deflections (approximately equal to 43 deg.) and bank angles (21 deg.). A study of the lateral control surfaces, tip-fin controllers for WB001, indicate increased surface area would help address these instabilities, particularly the deficiency in C(sub n(beta)), but obviously at the expense of increased vehicle weight. Growth factors of approximately 7 were determined using a design C(sub n(beta)) of 0.100/radian (approximate subsonic values for the orbiter).
Theoretical values of the admittances of various nozzles were computed and compared with the corresponding experimental values. The existing data reduction scheme was corrected and all available experimental data has been rechecked and corrected whenever necessary; the updated experimental admittance values are presented. An analysis associated with the frequency sensitivity of experimental admittance values was initiated and the analog-to-digital Data Reduction Program which has become operational is discussed. Fourteen nozzle tests were conducted during this report period.
Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.
This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending versus not sending one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The expected value of sample information based on productivity combined with parametric variations in the prior probability an asteroid might be found suitable for landing were used to assess the optimal number of spacecraft and asteroids to survey. The analysis supports the value of surveyor missions to asteroids and indicates one launch with two spacecraft going simultaneously to two independent asteroids appears optimal.
Probabilistic assessment of the maximum blade response on a mistuned rotor disk is performed using the computer code NESSUS. The uncertainties in natural frequency, excitation frequency, amplitude of excitation and damping are included to obtain the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of blade responses. Advanced mean value first order analysis is used to compute CDF. The sensitivities of different random variables are identified. Effect of the number of blades on a rotor on mistuning is evaluated. It is shown that the uncertainties associated with the forcing function parameters have significant effect on the response distribution of the bladed rotor.
The heart rate (HR) variation to forced deep breathing (HRDB) and to the Valsalva maneuver (Valsalva ratio; VR) are the two most widely used tests of cardiovagal function in human subjects. The HR is derived from a continuously running electrocardiographic (ECG) recording. Recently, HR derived from the arterial waveform became available on the Finapres device (FinapHR), but its ability to detect rapid changes in HR remains uncertain. We therefore evaluated HRDB and VR derived from FinapHR using ECG-derived HR (ECGHR) recordings as the standard. We also compared the averaged HR on Finapres (Finapav) with beat-to-beat Finapres (FinapBB) values. Studies were undertaken in 12 subjects with large HR variations: age, 34.5 +/- 9.3 (SD) years; six males and six females. FinapBB values were superimposable upon ECGHR for both HRDB and VR. In contrast, Finapav failed to follow ECGHR for HRDB and followed HRECG with a lag for the VR. To evaluate statistically how closely FinapHR approximated ECGHR, we undertook regression analysis, using mean values for each subject. To compare the two methods, we evaluated the significance of the difference between test and standard values. For HRDB, FinapBB reproducibly recorded HR (R2 = 0.998), and was significantly (p = 0.001) better than Finapav (R2 = 0.616; p < 0.001). For VR, HRBB generated a VR that was not significantly different from the correct values, while HRav generated a value that was slightly but consistently lower than the correct values (p < 0.001). We conclude that FinapHR reliably records HR variations in the beat-to-beat mode for cardiovascular HR tests.
Probabilistic assessment of the maximum blade response on a mistuned rotor disk is performed using the computer code NESSUS. The uncertainties in natural frequency, excitation frequency, amplitude of excitation and damping have been included to obtain the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of blade responses. Advanced mean value first order analysis is used to compute CDF. The sensitivities of different random variables are identified. Effect of the number of blades on a rotor on mistuning is evaluated. It is shown that the uncertainties associated with the forcing function parameters have significant effect on the response distribution of the bladed rotor.
Computer program listings as well as graphical and tabulated data needed by the analyst to perform a BRAVO analysis were examined. Graphical aid which can be used to determine the earth coverage of satellites in synchronous equatorial orbits was described. A listing for satellite synthesis computer program as well as a sample printout for the DSCS-11 satellite program and a listing of the symbols used in the program were included. The APL language listing for the payload program cost estimating computer program was given. This language is compatible with many of the time sharing remote terminals computers used in the United States. Data on the intelsat communications network was studied. Costs for telecommunications systems leasing, line of sight microwave relay communications systems, submarine telephone cables, and terrestrial power generation systems were also described.
A parallelized finite difference code based on the Newton method for systems of nonlinear elliptic boundary value problems in two dimensions is analyzed in terms of computational complexity and parallel efficiency. An approximate cost function depending on 15 dimensionless parameters is derived for algorithms based on stripwise and boxwise decompositions of the domain and a one-to-one assignment of the strip or box subdomains to processors. The sensitivity of the cost functions to the parameters is explored in regions of parameter space corresponding to model small-order systems with inexpensive function evaluations and also a coupled system of nineteen equations with very expensive function evaluations. The algorithm was implemented on the Intel Hypercube, and some experimental results for the model problems with stripwise decompositions are presented and compared with the theory. In the context of computational combustion problems, multiprocessors of either message-passing or shared-memory type may be employed with stripwise decompositions to realize speedup of O(n), where n is mesh resolution in one direction, for reasonable n.
During early August 1997, the ozone column density measured over Lauder was unusually low, with a minimum value of 222 Dobson Units (DU) at August 10. These observations are striking since in August, during the Austral winter, the ozone column density should be heading towards its yearly maximum; The August mean ozone column density measured over Lauder between 1987 and 1996 was 348(+/-28) DU, the lowest monthly average in these ten years was 255 DU. Regular altitude profile measurements of ozone, performed at Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) station Lauder, make it possible to do a detailed, altitude-resolved, study of the low ozone observations. The measurements show ozone poor air in two altitude regions of the stratosphere: A 'high region', extending from the 600 K to the 1050 K isentrope (25 to 34 km), and a 'low region', below about 550 K (22 km). High resolution reverse trajectory maps of potential vorticity (PV) and ozone mixing ratio, based on the assumption of passive advection by the large-scale three-dimensional winds, show that in the 'high region' the ozone poor air was part of the polar vortex, which was centered off the pole and extended over Lauder for several days, while in the 'low region' the ozone poor air was mixed in from low latitudes. A rapid recovery of the ozone column density, by more than 110 DU within 24 hours, was observed when in the low region an ozone rich filament of the polar vortex moved over Lauder, while in the high region the (ozone poor) high part of the vortex moved away.
The issue of developing effective and robust schemes to implement a class of the Ogden-type hyperelastic constitutive models, for large-strain analysis of rubber-like materials, is addressed. To this end, explicit forms for the corresponding material tangent-stiffness tensors are developed, and these are valid for the entire deformation range; i.e., with both distinct as well as repeated principal-stretch values. Throughout the analysis the various implications of the underlying property of separability of the strain-energy functions are exploited, thus leading to compact final forms of the tensor expressions. In particular, this facilitated the treatment of the complex cases of uncoupled volumetric/deviatoric formulations for incompressible materials, which are becoming increasingly popular in recent years. The forms derived are also amenable for use with symbolic-manipulation packages for systematic code generation.
The objective is to introduce the usability engineering methodology, heuristic evaluation, to the design and development of a web-based telemedicine system. Using a set of usability criteria, or heuristics, one evaluator examined the Spacebridge to Russia web-site for usability problems. Thirty-four usability problems were found in this preliminary study and all were assigned a severity rating. The value of heuristic analysis in the iterative design of a system is shown because the problems can be fixed before deployment of a system and the problems are of a different nature than those found by actual users of the system. It was therefore determined that there is potential value of heuristic evaluation paired with user testing as a strategy for optimal system performance design.
The Intravenous Fluid Generation (IVGEN) Experiment was a technology demonstration experiment that purified ISS potable water, mixed it with salt, and transferred it through a sterilizing filter. On-orbit performance was verified as appropriate and two 1.5 l bags of normal saline solution were returned to earth for post-flight testing by a FDA certified laboratory for compliance with United States Pharmacopiea (USP) standards. Salt concentration deviated from required values and an analysis identified probable causes. Current efforts are focused on Total Organic Content (TOC) testing, and shelf life.The Intravenous Fluid Generation (IVGEN) Experiment demonstrated the purification of ISS potable water, the mixing of the purified water with sodium chloride, and sterilization of the solution via membrane filtration. On-orbit performance was monitored where feasible and two 1.5-liter bags of normal saline solution were returned to earth for post-flight testing by a FDA-registered laboratory for compliance with United States Pharmacopeia (USP)standards [1]. Current efforts have been focused on challenge testing with identified [2] impurities (total organic-carbon), and shelf life testing. The challenge testing flowed known concentrations of contaminants through the IVGEN deionizing cartridge and membrane filters to test their effectiveness. One finding was that the filters and DI-resin themselves contribute to the contaminant load during initial startup, suggesting that the first 100 ml of fluid be discarded. Shelf life testing is ongoing and involves periodic testing of stored DI cartridges and membrane filters that are capped and sealed in hermetic packages. The testing is conducted at six month intervals measuring conductivity and endotoxins in the effluent. Currently, the packaging technique has been successfully demonstrated for one year of storage testing. The USP standards specifies that the TOC be conducted at point of generation as opposed to point of consumption. Samples were generated and shipped to an FDA facility however, testing determined that the samples failed the TOC specification with most likely due to leaching from the sample container. Shelf life testing is examining packaging techniques and periodic testing of samples of DI cartridges that are capped and sealed in hermetic packages. Periodic testing of the purified water output will be conducted at six month intervals.
The parameters of diffusion patterns of atmospheric pollutants under different conditions were investigated for use in the Gaussian model for calculation of pollution concentration. Value for the divergence pattern of concentration distribution along the Y axis were determined using LANDSAT images. Multispectral scanner images of a point source plume having known characteristics, wind and temperature data, and cloud cover and solar elevation data provided by LANDSAT, were analyzed using the 1-100 system for image analysis. These measured values are compared with pollution transport as predicted by the Pasquill-Gifford, Juelich, and Hoegstroem atmospheric models.
Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.
Finite-element fracture simulation methodology predicts the residual strength of damaged aircraft structures. The methodology uses the critical crack-tip-opening-angle (CTOA) fracture criterion to characterize the fracture behavior of the material. The CTOA fracture criterion assumes that stable crack growth occurs when the crack-tip angle reaches a constant critical value. The use of the CTOA criterion requires an elastic- plastic, finite-element analysis. The critical CTOA value is determined by simulating fracture behavior in laboratory specimens, such as a compact specimen, to obtain the angle that best fits the observed test behavior. The critical CTOA value appears to be independent of loading, crack length, and in-plane dimensions. However, it is a function of material thickness and local crack-front constraint. Modeling the local constraint requires either a three-dimensional analysis or a two-dimensional analysis with an approximation to account for the constraint effects. In recent times as the aircraft industry is leaning towards monolithic structures with the intention of reducing part count and manufacturing cost, there has been a consistent effort at NASA Langley to extend critical CTOA based numerical methodology in the analysis of integrally-stiffened panels.In this regard, a series of fracture tests were conducted on both flat and curved aluminum alloy integrally-stiffened panels. These flat panels were subjected to uniaxial tension and during the test, applied load-crack extension, out-of-plane displacements and local deformations around the crack tip region were measured. Compact and middle-crack tension specimens were tested to determine the critical angle (wc) using three-dimensional code (ZIP3D) and the plane-strain core height (hJ using two-dimensional code (STAGS). These values were then used in the STAGS analysis to predict the fracture behavior of the integrally-stiffened panels. The analyses modeled stable tearing, buckling, and crack branching at the integral stiffener using different values of critical CTOA for different material thicknesses and orientation. Comparisons were made between measured and predicted load-crack extension, out-of-plane displacements and local deformations around the crack tip region. Simultaneously, three-dimensional capabilities to model crack branching and to monitor stable crack growth of multiple cracks in a large thick integrally-stiffened flat panels were implemented in three-dimensional finite element code (ZIP3D) and tested by analyzing the integrally-stiffened panels tested at Alcoa. The residual strength of the panels predicted from STAGS and ZP3D code compared very well with experimental data. In recent times, STAGS software has been updated with new features and now one can have combinations of solid and shell elements in the residual strength analysis of integrally-stiffened panels.