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NASA NTRS2022

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗

NASA NTRS1994

The ultraviolet pulsations of the cataclysmic variable AE Aquarii as observed with the Hubble Space Telescope

We present the results of high time resolution UV spectroscopy and simultaneous high-speed UBVR photometry of AE Aqr. The UV spectra were obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph aboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the photometry was carried out with the 82 sec telescope at McDonald Observatory. Our study focuses on the coherent 33 sceond oscillations, whose amplitude is found to be very large in the UV (40% of the mean quiescent level). The mean pulse profile has two broad unequal peaks spaced by half an oscillation cycle. The pulse profiles in the UV and optical bands appear quite similar in shape, with no discernible shifts. The orbital delay curve of the UV pulses establishes the white dwarf as their origin. The (UV+optical) spectrum of the pulsations is well described by a white dwarf atmosphere model with a temperature of about 26,000 K. We find no oscillations in the UV emission-line fluxes, nor in their velocities, down to a limit of 800 km/s. Based on the properties of the UV and optical pulsations we suggest that they originate in the X-ray heated magnetic polar caps of the white dwarf. Under this assumption we produce maximum entropy maps of the brightness distribution of the white dwarf surface. Using this model we are able to reproduce the observed mean pulse profile and interpret fluctuations in the oscillation amplitude as small fluctuations in the accretion rate. We find that the amplitudes and profiles of the pulses are not strongly affectd by the large aperiodic flares exhibited by the system. This suggests that the large flares are not related to the process of depositing material onto the white dwarf and argues against models that place their origin at the white dwarf magnetosphere.

Eracleous, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1989

Static aeroelastic analysis and tailoring of missile control fins

A concept for enhancing the design of control fins for supersonic tactical missiles is described. The concept makes use of aeroelastic tailoring to create fin designs (for given planforms) that limit the variations in hinge moments that can occur during maneuvers involving high load factors and high angles of attack. It combines supersonic nonlinear aerodynamic load calculations with finite-element structural modeling, static and dynamic structural analysis, and optimization. The problem definition is illustrated. The fin is at least partly made up of a composite material. The layup is fixed, and the orientations of the material principal axes are allowed to vary; these are the design variables. The objective is the magnitude of the difference between the chordwise location of the center of pressure and its desired location, calculated for a given flight condition. Three types of constraints can be imposed: upper bounds on static displacements for a given set of load conditions, lower bounds on specified natural frequencies, and upper bounds on the critical flutter damping parameter at a given set of flight speeds and altitudes. The idea is to seek designs that reduce variations in hinge moments that would otherwise occur. The block diagram describes the operation of the computer program that accomplishes these tasks. There is an option for a single analysis in addition to the optimization.

Mcintosh, S. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Residual stresses in welded plates

The purpose of this project was to develop a simple model which could be used to study residual stress. The mechanism that results in residual stresses in the welding process starts with the deposition of molten weld metal which heats the immediately adjacent material. After solidification of weld material, normal thermal shrinkage is resisted by the adjacent, cooler material. When the thermal strain exceeds the elastic strain corresponding to the yield point stress, the stress level is limited by this value, which decreases with increasing temperature. Cooling then causes elastic unloading which is restrained by the adjoining material. Permanent plastic strain occurs, and tension is caused in the region immediately adjacent to the weld material. Compression arises in the metal farther from the weld in order to maintain overall static equilibrium. Subsequent repair welds may add to the level of residual stresses. The level of residual stress is related to the onset of fracture during welding. Thus, it is of great importance to be able to predict the level of residual stresses remaining after a weld procedure, and to determine the factors, such as weld speed, temperature, direction, and number of passes, which may affect the magnitude of remaining residual stress. It was hoped to use traditional analytical modeling techniques so that it would be easier to comprehend the effect of these variables on the resulting stress. This approach was chosen in place of finite element methods so as to facilitate the understanding of the physical processes. The accuracy of the results was checked with some existing experimental studies giving residual stress levels found from x-ray diffraction measurements.

Bernstein, Edward L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A dual potential formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations

A dual potential formulation for numerically solving the Navier-Stokes equations is developed and presented. The velocity field is decomposed using a scalar and vector potential. Vorticity and dilatation are used as the dependent variables in the momentum equations. Test cases in two dimensions verify the capability to solve flows using approximations from potential flow to full Navier-Stokes simulations. A three-dimensional incompressible flow formulation is also described. An interesting feature of this approach to solving the Navier-Stokes equations is the decomposition of the velocity field into a rotational part (vector potential) and an irrotational part (scalar potential). The Helmholtz decomposition theorem allows this splitting of the velocity field. This approach has had only limited use since it increases the number of dependent variables in the solution. However, it has often been used for incompressible flows where the solution scheme is known to be fast and accurate. This research extends the usage of this method to fully compressible Navier-Stokes simulations by using the dilatation variable along with vorticity. A time-accurate, iterative algorithm is used for the uncoupled solution of the governing equations. Several levels of flow approximation are available within the framework of this method. Potential flow, Euler and full Navier-Stokes solutions are possible using the dual potential formulation. Solution efficiency can be enhanced in a straightforward way. For some flows, the vorticity and/or dilatation may be negligible in certain regions (e.g., far from a viscous boundary in an external flow). It is possible to drop the calculation of these variables then and optimize the solution speed. Also, efficient Poisson solvers are available for the potentials. The relative merits of non-primitive variables versus primitive variables for solution of the Navier-Stokes equations are also discussed.

Gegg, S. G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Visualizing Flutter Mechanism as Traveling Wave Through Animation of Simulation Results for the Semi-Span Super-Sonic Transport Wind-Tunnel Model

It has long been recognized that frequency and phasing of structural modes in the presence of airflow play a fundamental role in the occurrence of flutter. Animation of simulation results for the long, slender Semi-Span Super-Sonic Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel model demonstrates that, for the case of mass-ballasted nacelles, the flutter mode can be described as a traveling wave propagating downstream. Such a characterization provides certain insights, such as (1) describing the means by which energy is transferred from the airflow to the structure, (2) identifying airspeed as an upper limit for speed of wave propagation, (3) providing an interpretation for a companion mode that coalesces in frequency with the flutter mode but becomes very well damped, (4) providing an explanation for bursts of response to uniform turbulence, and (5) providing an explanation for loss of low frequency (lead) phase margin with increases in dynamic pressure (at constant Mach number) for feedback systems that use sensors located upstream from active control surfaces. Results from simulation animation, simplified modeling, and wind-tunnel testing are presented for comparison. The simulation animation was generated using double time-integration in Simulink of vertical accelerometer signals distributed over wing and fuselage, along with time histories for actuated control surfaces. Crossing points for a zero-elevation reference plane were tracked along a network of lines connecting the accelerometer locations. Accelerometer signals were used in preference to modal displacement state variables in anticipation that the technique could be used to animate motion of the actual wind-tunnel model using data acquired during testing. Double integration of wind-tunnel accelerometer signals introduced severe drift even with removal of both position and rate biases such that the technique does not currently work. Using wind-tunnel data to drive a Kalman filter based upon fitting coefficients to analytical mode shapes might provide a better means to animate the wind tunnel data.

Christhilf, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Design and Implementation of a Parallel Multivariate Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Poseidon Ocean General Circulation Model

A multivariate ensemble Kalman filter (MvEnKF) implemented on a massively parallel computer architecture has been implemented for the Poseidon ocean circulation model and tested with a Pacific Basin model configuration. There are about two million prognostic state-vector variables. Parallelism for the data assimilation step is achieved by regionalization of the background-error covariances that are calculated from the phase-space distribution of the ensemble. Each processing element (PE) collects elements of a matrix measurement functional from nearby PEs. To avoid the introduction of spurious long-range covariances associated with finite ensemble sizes, the background-error covariances are given compact support by means of a Hadamard (element by element) product with a three-dimensional canonical correlation function. The methodology and the MvEnKF configuration are discussed. It is shown that the regionalization of the background covariances; has a negligible impact on the quality of the analyses. The parallel algorithm is very efficient for large numbers of observations but does not scale well beyond 100 PEs at the current model resolution. On a platform with distributed memory, memory rather than speed is the limiting factor.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Observations of interstellar helium with a gas absorption cell - Limits on the bulk velocity of the interstellar medium

Results are reported for observations of solar 584-A flux resonantly scattered by the 1s(2)-1s2p transition of neutral interstellar helium. A photometer equipped with a helium gas-absorption cell and flown aboard a sounding rocket to a peak altitude of 185 km was employed to observe the sky in Perseus. The data reduction procedure is described, including subtraction of the terrestrial atmospheric background, calculation of the solar flux, and reduction of the number density of scatters to a function of phase-space parameters of the local interstellar medium. The ratio of 584-A fluxes observed with the gas cell full and empty is computed and compared with numerical models of the interstellar-helium flow through the solar system. The results show that the bulk speed of the distant interstellar medium with respect to the sun is unlikely to be less than 10 to 15 km/s, at the 2-sigma level. Since this value is inconsistent with results obtained from Lyman-alpha observations, it is suggested that either the total ionization rate for helium is variable or present models of the behavior of the local interstellar medium need further refinement.

Freeman, J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Foil Gas Thrust Bearings for High-Speed Turbomachinery

A methodology has been developed for the design and construction of simple foil thrust bearings intended for parametric performance testing and low marginal costs, supporting continued development of oil-free turbomachinery. A bearing backing plate is first machined and surface-ground to produce flat and parallel faces. Partial-arc slots needed to retain the foil components are then machined into the plate by wire electrical discharge machining. Slot thicknesses achievable by a single wire pass are appropriate to accommodate the practical range of foil thicknesses, leaving a small clearance in this hinged joint to permit limited motion. The backing plate is constructed from a nickel-based superalloy (Inconel 718) to allow heat treatment of the entire assembled bearing, as well as to permit hightemperature operation. However, other dimensionally stable materials, such as precipitation-hardened stainless steel, can also be used for this component depending on application. The top and bump foil blanks are cut from stacks of annealed Inconel X-750 foil by the same EDM process. The bump foil has several azimuthal slits separating it into five individual bump strips. This configuration allows for variable bump spacing, which helps to accommodate the effects of the varying surface velocity, thermal crowning, centrifugal dishing, and misalignment. Rectangular tabs on the foil blanks fit into the backing plate slots. For this application, a rather traditional set of conventionally machined dies is selected, and bump foil blanks are pressed into the dies for forming. This arrangement produces a set of bump foil dies for foil thrust bearings that provide for relatively inexpensive fabrication of various bump configurations, and employing methods and features from the public domain.

Edmonds, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1987

Soil moisture estimation using GOES-VISSR infrared data - A case study with a simple statistical method

Five days of clear sky observations of Kansas and Nebraska are used to examine the statistical relationship between soil moisture and infrared surface temperature observations taken from a geosynchronous satellite. Linear regression is used to relate soil moisture to surface temperature and other variables that represent wind speed, vegetation cover, and low-level temperature advection. Results show good agreement between estimated and observed soil moisture features on each of the 5 days. The average coefficient of determination for five pseudoindependent tests in which the test day is held out of the regression is 0.71. It is shown that a depletion coefficient of 0.92, when used to compute antecedent precipitation index (API), produces the best correlation between API and soil moisture as inferred from GOES thermal infrared data. By averaging daily predicted values over the 5-day rain-free case study period, 92 percent of the variance of the morning surface temperature change is explained by a simple multiple linear regression with all independent variables, or, alternatively, 85 percent of the observed variance in API is explained. It is concluded that this approach can distinguish at least four classes of soil wetness, but the necessity for measurement of surface advection may limit its usefulness in remote areas.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Fan Performance From Duct Rake Instrumentation on a 1.294 Pressure Ratio, 725 ft/sec Tip Speed Turbofan Simulator Using Vaned Passage Casing Treatment

A 1.294 pressure ratio, 725 ft/sec tip speed, variable pitch low noise fan was designed and tested in the NASA Glenn 9- by 15-foot Wind Tunnel. The design included a casing treatment that used recirculation to extend the fan stall line and provide an acceptable operating range. Overall aerodynamic experimental results are presented for this low tip speed, low noise fan without casing treatment as well as using several variants of the casing treatment that moved the air extraction and insertion axial locations. Measurements were made to assess effects on performance, operability, and noise. An unusual instability was discovered near the design operating line and is documented in the fan operating range. Measurements were made to compare stall margin improvements as well as measure the performance impact of the casing treatments. Experimental results in the presence of simulated inlet distortion, via screens, are presented for the baseline and recirculation casing treatment configurations. Estimates are made for the quantity of recirculation weight flow based on limited instrumentation in the recirculation system along with discussion of results and conclusions

Fite, E. Brian↗

NASA NTRS2002

Composite Bending Box Section Modal Vibration Fault Detection

One of the primary concerns with Composite construction in critical structures such as wings and stabilizers is that hidden faults and cracks can develop operationally. In the real world, catastrophic sudden failure can result from these undetected faults in composite structures. Vibration data incorporating a broad frequency modal approach, could detect significant changes prior to failure. The purpose of this report is to investigate the usefulness of frequency mode testing before and after bending and torsion loading on a composite bending Box Test section. This test article is representative of construction techniques being developed for the recent NASA Blended Wing Body Low Speed Vehicle Project. The Box section represents the construction technique on the proposed blended wing aircraft. Modal testing using an impact hammer provides an frequency fingerprint before and after bending and torsional loading. If a significant structural discontinuity develops, the vibration response is expected to change. The limitations of the data will be evaluated for future use as a non-destructive in-situ method of assessing hidden damage in similarly constructed composite wing assemblies. Modal vibration fault detection sensitivity to band-width, location and axis will be investigated. Do the sensor accelerometers need to be near the fault and or in the same axis? The response data used in this report was recorded at 17 locations using tri-axial accelerometers. The modal tests were conducted following 5 independent loading conditions before load to failure and 2 following load to failure over a period of 6 weeks. Redundant data was used to minimize effects from uncontrolled variables which could lead to incorrect interpretations. It will be shown that vibrational modes detected failure at many locations when skin de-bonding failures occurred near the center section. Important considerations are the axis selected and frequency range.

Werlink, Rudy↗

NASA NTRS2003

Using Tri-Axial Accelerometers to Assess the Dynamic Control of Head Posture During Gait

Long duration spaceflight is known to cause a variety of biomedical stressors to the astronaut. One of the more functionally destabilizing effects of spaceflight involves microgravity-induced changes in vestibular or balance control. Balance control requires the integration of the vestibular, visual, and proprioceptive systems. In the microgravity environment, the normal gravity vector present on Earth no longer serves as a reference for the balance control system. Therefore, adaptive changes occur to the vestibular system to affect control of body orientation with altered, or non-present, gravity and/or proprioceptive inputs. Upon return to a gravity environment, the vestibular system must re-incorporate the gravity vector and gravity-induced proprioceptive inputs into the balance control regime. The result is often a period of postural instability, which may also be associated with space motion sickness (oscillopsia, nausea, and vertigo). Previous studies by the JSC Neuroscience group have found that returning astronauts often employ alterations in gait mechanics to maintain postural control during gait. It is believed that these gait alterations are meant to decrease the transfer of heel strike shock energy to the head, thus limiting the contradictory head and eye movements that lead to gait instability and motion sickness symptoms. We analyzed pre- and post-spaceflight tri-axial accelerometer data from the NASA/MIR long duration spaceflight missions to assess the heel to head transfer of heel strike shock energy during locomotion. Up to seven gait sessions (three preflight, four postflight) of head and shank (lower leg) accelerometer data was previously collected from six astronauts who engaged in space flights of four to six months duration. In our analysis, the heel to head transmission of shock energy was compared using peak vertical acceleration (a), peak jerk (j) ratio, and relative kinetic energy (a). A host of generalized movement variables was produced in an effort to isolate those that best highlighted vestibular adaptation due to spaceflight. Data suggest that astronauts used either head or body centered control to reduce the effects of heel strike shock on head position during normal walking at self-selected speeds. Moreover, the form of that control appears to fall under one of two categories: homeostatic or adaptive. Homeostatic control refers to tight constraint (small error) over the value of a given variable before and after spaceflight with little or no adaptive changes. Adaptive control refers to lesser constraint over a given movement variable with clear adaptation to earth gravity upon return from spaceflight. Heel strike shock absorption (ratio of heel to head peak acceleration) best-discriminated head and body centered control strategies. Further, peak jerk data was useful for illustrating pre- and postflight differences in segmental (shank versus head) movement energy. Results from kinetic energy analysis show high consistency between subjects and across test dates. Whether this result highlights a control strategy or is an artifact of approximating body segments using anthropometric tables is, at this point, unclear.

Lawrence, John H., III↗

NASA NTRS1995

CFD-Based Design Optimization Tool Developed for Subsonic Inlet

The traditional approach to the design of engine inlets for commercial transport aircraft is a tedious process that ends with a less-than-optimum design. With the advent of high-speed computers and the availability of more accurate and reliable computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers, numerical optimization processes can effectively be used to design an aerodynamic inlet lip that enhances engine performance. The designers' experience at Boeing Corporation showed that for a peak Mach number on the inlet surface beyond some upper limit, the performance of the engine degrades excessively. Thus, our objective was to optimize efficiency (minimize the peak Mach number) at maximum cruise without compromising performance at other operating conditions. Using a CFD code NPARC, the NASA Lewis Research Center, in collaboration with Boeing, developed an integrated procedure at Lewis to find the optimum shape of a subsonic inlet lip and a numerical optimization code, ADS. We used a GRAPE-based three-dimensional grid generator to help automate the optimization procedure. The inlet lip shape at the crown and the keel was described as a superellipse, and the superellipse exponents and radii ratios were considered as design variables. Three operating conditions: cruise, takeoff, and rolling takeoff, were considered in this study. Three-dimensional Euler computations were carried out to obtain the flow field. At the initial design, the peak Mach numbers for maximum cruise, takeoff, and rolling takeoff conditions were 0.88, 1.772, and 1.61, respectively. The acceptable upper limits on the takeoff and rolling takeoff Mach numbers were 1.55 and 1.45. Since the initial design provided by Boeing was found to be optimum with respect to the maximum cruise condition, the sum of the peak Mach numbers at takeoff and rolling takeoff were minimized in the current study while the maximum cruise Mach number was constrained to be close to that at the existing design. With this objective, the optimum design satisfied the upper limits at takeoff and rolling takeoff while retaining the desirable cruise performance. Further studies are being conducted to include static and cross-wind operating conditions in the design optimization procedure. This work was carried out in collaboration with Dr. E.S. Reddy of NYMA, Inc.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1959

A Dynamic Model Investigation of the Effect of a Sharp-Edge Vertical Gust on Blade Periodic Flapping Angles and Bending Moments of a Two-Blade Rotor

A two-blade rotor having a diameter of 4 feet and a solidity of 0.037 was subjected to sharp-edge vertical gusts while being operated at various forward speeds to study the effect of the gusts on the blade periodic bending moments and flapping angles. Variables studied included gust velocity, collective pitch angle, flapping hinge offset, and tip-speed ratio. Dimensionless coefficients are derived for the periodic components of the incremental changes in blade flapping angles and bending moments which arise when a rotor blade penetrates a sharp-edge gust. Mental changes in both the flapping angles and bending moments are essentially proportional to gust velocity, and the coefficients express the ratio of these increments to gust velccity. The results show that the flapping coefficient usually increases with an increase in collective pitch angle, is generally dependent on tip-speed ratio, and is essentially independent of the amount of flapping hinge offset. The bending-moment coefficient is also dependent on collective pitch angle and tip-speed ratio. Expected reductions in bending moments are realized by the use of flapping hinges, and further reductions in bending moments are achieved as the amount of flapping hinge offset is increased. Comparison of the experimental results of this investigation with limited available theoretical results shows substantial agreement but indicates that the assumption that the response of the rotor to a sharp-edge gust is independent of the collective pitch angle prior to gust entry is probably inadequate.

McCarty, John Locke↗

NASA NTRS1948

Theoretical symmetric span loading at subsonic speeds for wings having arbitrary plan form

A method is shown by which the symmetric span loading for a certain class of wings can be simply found. The geometry of these wings is limited only to the extent that they must have symmetry about the root chord, must have a straight quarter-chord line over the semispan, and must have no discontinuities in twist. A procedure is shown for finding the lift-curve slope, pitching moment, center of lift, and induced drag from the span load distribution. A method of accounting for the effects of Mach number and for changes in section lift-curve slope is also given. Charts are presented which give directly the characteristics of many wings. Other charts are presented which reduce the problem of finding the symmetric loading on all wings falling within the prescribed limits to the solution of not more than four simultaneous equations. The loadings and wing characteristics predicted by the theory are compared to those given by other theories and by experiment. It is concluded that the results given by the subject theory are satisfactory. The theory is applied to a number of wings to exhibit the effects of such variables as sweep, aspect ratio, taper, and twist. The results are compared and conclusions drawn as to the relative effects of these variables.

Deyoung, John↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exploring the Utility of the Planned CYGNSS Mission for Investigating the Initiation and Development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

CYGNSS is a planned constellation consisting of multiple micro-satellites that leverage the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide rapidly updated, high resolution (approx. 15-50 km, approx. 4 h) surface wind speeds (via bi-static scatterometry) over the tropical oceans in any weather condition, including heavy rainfall. The approach of the work to be presented at this conference is to utilize a limited-domain, cloud-system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting or WRF) and its attendant data assimilation scheme (Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation or 3DVAR) to investigate the utility of the CYGNSS mission for helping characterize key convectiveto- mesoscale processes - such as surface evaporation, moisture advection and convergence, and upscale development of precipitation systems - that help drive the initiation and development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The proposed work will focus on three scientific objectives. Objective 1 is to produce a high-resolution surface wind dataset resolution (approx. 0.5 h, approx. 1-4 km) for multiple MJO onsets using WRF-assimilated winds and other data from the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during October 2011 - March 2012. Objective 2 is to study the variability of surface winds during MJO onsets at temporal and spatial scales of finer resolution than future CYGNSS data. The goal is to understand how sub-CYGNSS-resolution processes will shape the observations made by the satellite constellation. Objective 3 is to ingest simulated CYGNSS data into the WRF model in order to perform observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These will be used to test and quantify the potential beneficial effects provided by CYGNSS, particularly for characterizing the physical processes driving convective organization and upscale development during the initiation and development of the MJO. The proposed research is ideal for answering important questions about the CYGNSS mission, such as the representativeness of surface wind retrievals in the context of the complex airflow processes that occur during heavy precipitation, as well as the tradeoffs in retrieval accuracy that result from finer spatial resolution of the CYGNSS winds versus increased errors/noisiness in those data. Research plans and initial progress toward these objectives will be presented.

Lang, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2004

Challenges in Modeling the Sun-Earth System

The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales in time and space. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA Living With a Star (LWS) programs. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress. Our limited understanding of the underlying coupling physics is illustrated by the following example questions: how does the propagation of a typical CME/solar flare influence the measured properties of the solar wind at 1 AU? How does the solar wind compel the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere? How is variability in the ionosphere-thermosphere system coupled to magnetospheric variations? Why do these and related important questions remain unanswered? What are the primary problems that need to be resolved to enable significant progress in comprehensive modeling of the Sun-Earth system? Which model/technique improvements are required and what new data coverage is required to enable full model advances? This poster opens the discussion for how these and other important questions can be addressed. A workshop scheduled for October 8-22, 2004 in Huntsville, Alabama, will be a forum for identifying ana exploring promising new directions and approaches for characterizing and understanding the system. To focus the discussion, the workshop will emphasize the genesis, evolution, propagation and interaction of high-speed solar wind streamers or CME/flares with geospace and the subsequent response of geospace from its outer reaches in the magnetosphere to the lower edge of the ionosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere. Particular emphasis will be placed on modeling the coupling aspects of these phenomena across boundaries between regions and on data analysis that guides and constrains model results. Specific topics to be addressed are: Corotating interaction regions, Coronal mass ejections, Energetic particles, System preconditioning, Extreme events and super storms, End-to-End modeling efforts.

Spann, James↗