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At least 181 records · Page 10

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗

The Characterization of Deep Convective Cloud Albedo as a Calibration Target Using MODIS Reflectances

There are over 25 years of historical satellite data available to climate analysis. The historical satellite data needs to be well calibrated, especially in the visible, where there is no onboard calibration on operational satellites. The key to the vicarious calibration of historical satellites relies on invariant targets, such as the moon, Dome C, and deserts. Deep convective clouds (DCC) also show promise of being a stable invariant or predictable target viewable by all satellites, since they behave as solar diffusers. However DCC have not been well characterized for calibration. Ten years of well-calibrated MODIS is now available. DCC can easily be identified using IR thresholds, where the IR calibration can be traced to the onboard black-bodies. The natural variability of DCC albedo will be analyzed geographically and seasonally, especially difference of convection initiated over land or ocean. Functionality between particle size and ozone absorption with DCC albedo will be examined. Although DCC clouds are nearly Lambertion, the angular distribution of reflectances will be sampled and compared with theoretical models. Both Aqua and Terra MODIS DCC angular models will be compared for consistency. Normalizing angular geostationary DCC reflectances, which were calibrated against MODIS, with SCIAMACHY spectral reflectances and comparing them to MODIS DCC reflectances will inspect the usage of DCC albedos as an absolute calibration target.

Doelling, David R.↗

Visible Contrast Energy Metrics for Detection and Discrimination

Contrast energy was proposed by Watson, Robson, & Barlow as a useful metric for representing luminance contrast target stimuli because it represents the detectability of the stimulus in photon noise for an ideal observer. Like the eye, the ear is a complex transducer system, but relatively simple sound level meters are used to characterize sounds. These meters provide a range of frequency sensitivity functions and integration times depending on the intended use. We propose here the use of a range of contrast energy measures with different spatial frequency contrast sensitivity weightings, eccentricity sensitivity weightings, and temporal integration times. When detection threshold are plotting using such measures, the results show what the eye sees best when these variables are taken into account in a standard way. The suggested weighting functions revise the Standard Spatial Observer for luminance contrast detection and extend it into the near periphery. Under the assumption that the detection is limited only by internal noise, discrimination performance can be predicted by metrics based on the visible energy of the difference images

Ahumada, Albert↗

Vibration Reduction of Helicopter Blade Using Variable Dampers: A Feasibility Study

In the report, the investigation of controlling helicopter-blade lead-lag vibration is described. Current practice of adding passive damping may be improved to handle large dynamic range of the blade with several peaks of vibration resonance. To minimize extra-large damping forces that may damage the control system of blade, passive dampers should have relatively small damping coefficients, which in turn limit the effectiveness. By providing variable damping, a much larger damping coefficient to suppress the vibration can be realized. If the damping force reaches the maximum allowed threshold, the damper will be automatically switched into the mode with smaller damping coefficient to maintain near-constant damping force. Furthermore, the proposed control system will also have a fail-safe feature to guarantee the basic performation of a typical passive damper. The proposed control strategy to avoid resonant regions in the frequency domain is to generate variable damping force in combination with the supporting stiffness to manipulate the restoring force and conservative energy of the controlled blade system. Two control algorithms are developed and verified by a prototype variable damper, a digital controller and corresponding algorithms. Primary experiments show good potentials for the proposed variable damper: about 66% and 82% reductions in displacement at 1/3 length and the root of the blade respectively.

Lee, George C.↗

High Carrier Lifetimes in Epitaxial Germanium-Tin/Al(In)As Heterostructures with Variable Tin Compositions

Group IV-based germanium-tin (Ge1-ySny) compositional materials have recently shown great promise for infrared detection, light emission and ultra-low power transistors. High carrier lifetimes are desirable for enhancing the detection limit and efficiency of photodetectors, low threshold current density in lasers, and low tunneling barrier height by lowering defects and dislocations at the heterointerface of a source and a channel. Here, carrier lifetimes in epitaxial germanium (Ge) and variable tin (Sn) compositional Ge1-ySny materials were experimentally determined on GaAs substrates using the contactless microwave photoconductive decay (u-PCD) technique at an excitation wavelength of 1500 nm. Sharp (2 x 2) reflection high energy electron diffraction patterns and low surface roughness were observed from the surface of the Ge0.97Sn0.03 epilayer. X-ray rocking curves from Ge0.97Sn0.03 and Ge0.94Sn0.06 layers demonstrated the pseudomorphic and lattice-matched growth on AlAs and In0.12Al0.88As buffers, respectively, further substantiated by reciprocal space maps and abrupt heterointerfaces evident from the presence of Pendellosung oscillations. High effective carrier lifetimes of 150 ns to 450 ns were measured for Ge1-ySny epilayers as a function of Sn composition, surface roughness, growth temperature, and layer thickness. The observed increase in the carrier lifetime with an increasing Ge layer thickness and a reducing surface roughness, by incorporating Sn, were explained. The enhancement of the carrier lifetime with an increasing Sn concentration was achieved by controlling the defects with lattice-matched Ge0.94Sn0.06/In0.12Al0.88As heterointerfaces or the pseudomorphic growth of Ge0.94Sn0.06 on GaAs. Therefore, our monolithic integration of variable Sn alloy compositional Ge1-ySny materials with high carrier lifetimes opens avenues to realize electronic and optoelectronic devices.

carrier lifetimes↗

Control augmented structural synthesis with transient response constraints

An integrated approach to the optimum design of control augmented structural systems is presented in which structural variables and control variables are changed simultaneously during the design process. Constraints are imposed on peak transient dynamic displacements and accelerations, static displacements, natural frequencies, and control system effort. Side constraints imposed on structural member sizes and control system thresholds and actuator output forces insure the generation of physically meaningful designs. Example problems are presented which bring out the benefits of simultaneous treatment of both the structural design variables and the control design variables.

Manning, R. A.↗

Estimation of Optimum Stimulus Amplitude for Balance Training using Electrical Stimulation of the Vestibular System

Sensorimotor changes such as posture and gait instabilities can affect the functional performance of astronauts after gravitational transitions. Sensorimotor Adaptability (SA) training can help alleviate decrements on exposure to novel sensorimotor environments based on the concept of 'learning to learn' by exposure to varying sensory challenges during posture and locomotion tasks (Bloomberg 2015). Supra-threshold Stochastic Vestibular Stimulation (SVS) can be used to provide one of many challenges by disrupting vestibular inputs. In this scenario, the central nervous system can be trained to utilize veridical information from other sensory inputs, such as vision and somatosensory inputs, for posture and locomotion control. The minimum amplitude of SVS to simulate the effect of deterioration in vestibular inputs for preflight training or for evaluating vestibular contribution in functional tests in general, however, has not yet been identified. Few studies (MacDougall 2006; Dilda 2014) have used arbitrary but fixed maximum current amplitudes from 3 to 5 mA in the medio-lateral (ML) direction to disrupt balance function in healthy adults. Giving this high level of current amplitude to all the individuals has a risk of invoking side effects such as nausea and discomfort. The goal of this study was to determine the minimum SVS level that yields an equivalently degraded balance performance. Thirteen subjects stood on a compliant foam surface with their eyes closed and were instructed to maintain a stable upright stance. Measures of stability of the head, trunk, and whole body were quantified in the ML direction. Duration of time they could stand on the foam surface was also measured. The minimum SVS dosage was defined to be that level which significantly degraded balance performance such that any further increase in stimulation level did not lead to further balance degradation. The minimum SVS level was determined by performing linear fits on the performance variable at different stimulation levels. Results from the balance task suggest that there are inter-individual differences and the minimum SVS amplitude was found to be in the range of 1 mA to 2.5 mA across subjects. SVS resulted in an average decrement of balance task performance in the range of 62%-73% across different measured variables at the minimum SVS amplitude in comparison to the control trial (no stimulus). Training using supra-threshold SVS stimulation is one of the sensory challenges used for preflight SA training designed to improve adaptability to novel gravitational environments. Inter-individual differences in response to SVS can help customize the SA training paradigms using minimal dosage required. Another application of using SVS is to simulate acute deterioration of vestibular sensory inputs in the evaluation of tests for assessing vestibular function.

Goel, R.↗

Autonomous quantum error correction and fault-tolerant quantum computation with squeezed cat qubits

We propose an autonomous quantum error correction scheme using squeezed cat (SC) code against excitation loss in continuous-variable systems. Through reservoir engineering, we show that a structured dissipation can stabilize a two-component SC while autonomously correcting the errors. The implementation of such dissipation only requires low-order nonlinear couplings among three bosonic modes or between a bosonic mode and a qutrit. While our proposed scheme is device independent, it is readily implementable with current experimental platforms such as superconducting circuits and trapped-ion systems. Compared to the stabilized cat, the stabilized SC has a much lower dominant error rate and a significantly enhanced noise bias. Furthermore, the bias-preserving operations for the SC have much lower error rates. In combination, the stabilized SC leads to substantially better logical performance when concatenating with an outer discrete-variable code. The surface-SC scheme achieves more than one order of magnitude increase in the threshold ratio between the loss rate κ 1 and the engineered dissipation rate κ 2 . Under a practical noise ratio κ 1 /κ 2 = 10 -3 , the repetition-SC scheme can reach a 10 -15 logical error rate even with a small mean excitation number of 4, which already suffices for practically useful quantum algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effects of Local Compression on Peroneal Nerve Function in Humans

A new apparatus was developed to compress the anterior compartment selectively and reproducibly in humans. Thirty-five normal volunteers were studied to determine short-term thresholds of local tissue pressure that produce significant neuromuscular dysfunction. Local tissue fluid pressure adjacent to the deep peroneal nerve was elevated by the compression apparatus and continuously monitored for 2-3 h by the slit catheter technique. Elevation of tissue fluid pressure to within 35-40 mm Hg of diastolic blood pressure (approx. 40 mm Hg of in situ pressure in our subjects) elicited a consistent progression of neuromuscular deterioration including, in order, (a) gradual loss of sensation, as assessed by Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments, (b) subjective complaints, (c) reduced nerve conduction velocity, (d) decreased action potential amplitude of the extensor digitorum brevis muscle, and (e) motor weakness of muscles within the anterior compartment. Generally, higher intracompartment at pressures caused more rapid deterioration of neuromuscular function. In two subjects, when in situ compression levels were 0 and 30 mm Hg, normal neuromuscular function was maintained for 3 h. Threshold pressures for significant dysfunction were not always the same for each functional parameter studied, and the magnitudes of each functional deficit did not always correlate with compression level. This variable tolerance to elevated pressure emphasizes the need to monitor clinical signs and symptoms carefully in the diagnosis of compartment syndromes. The nature of the present studies was short term; longer term compression of myoneural tissues may result in dysfunction at lower pressure thresholds.

Hargens, Alan R.↗

Geochemical constraints on bacteriophage infectivity in terrestrial environments

Abstract Lytic phages can be potent and selective inhibitors of microbial growth and can have profound impacts on microbiome composition and function. However, there is uncertainty about the biogeochemical conditions under which phage predation modulates microbial ecosystem function, particularly in terrestrial systems. Ionic strength is critical for infection of bacteria by many phages, but quantitative data is limited on the ion thresholds for phage infection that can be compared with environmental ion concentrations. Similarly, while carbon composition varies in the environment, we do not know how this variability influences the impact of phage predation on microbiome function. Here, we measured the half-maximal effective concentrations (EC50) of 80 different inorganic ions for the infection of E. coli with two canonical dsDNA and ssRNA phages, T4 and MS2, respectively. Many alkaline earth metals and alkali metals enabled lytic infection but the ionic strength thresholds varied for different ions between phages. Additionally, using a freshwater nitrate-reducing microbiome, we found that the ability of lytic phages to influence nitrate reduction end-products depended upon the carbon source as well as ionic strength. For all phage:host pairs, the ion EC50s for phage infection exceeded the ion concentrations found in many terrestrial freshwater systems. Thus, our findings support a model where phages most influence terrestrial microbial functional ecology in hot spots and hot moments such as metazoan guts, drought influenced soils, or biofilms where ion concentration is locally or transiently elevated and nutrients are available to support the growth of specific phage hosts.

Carlson, Hans K. (ORCID:0000000215835313)↗

A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The challenges of detecting and attributing ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystems

Abstract A substantial body of research now exists demonstrating sensitivities of marine organisms to ocean acidification (OA) in laboratory settings. However, corresponding in situ observations of marine species or ecosystem changes that can be unequivocally attributed to anthropogenic OA are limited. Challenges remain in detecting and attributing OA effects in nature, in part because multiple environmental changes are co-occurring with OA, all of which have the potential to influence marine ecosystem responses. Furthermore, the change in ocean pH since the industrial revolution is small relative to the natural variability within many systems, making it difficult to detect, and in some cases, has yet to cross physiological thresholds. The small number of studies that clearly document OA impacts in nature cannot be interpreted as a lack of larger-scale attributable impacts at the present time or in the future but highlights the need for innovative research approaches and analyses. We summarize the general findings in four relatively well-studied marine groups (seagrasses, pteropods, oysters, and coral reefs) and integrate overarching themes to highlight the challenges involved in detecting and attributing the effects of OA in natural environments. We then discuss four potential strategies to better evaluate and attribute OA impacts on species and ecosystems. First, we highlight the need for work quantifying the anthropogenic input of CO2 in coastal and open-ocean waters to understand how this increase in CO2 interacts with other physical and chemical factors to drive organismal conditions. Second, understanding OA-induced changes in population-level demography, potentially increased sensitivities in certain life stages, and how these effects scale to ecosystem-level processes (e.g. community metabolism) will improve our ability to attribute impacts to OA among co-varying parameters. Third, there is a great need to understand the potential modulation of OA impacts through the interplay of ecology and evolution (eco–evo dynamics). Lastly, further research efforts designed to detect, quantify, and project the effects of OA on marine organisms and ecosystems utilizing a comparative approach with long-term data sets will also provide critical information for informing the management of marine ecosystems.

Fisheries↗

Tunable-fidelity wave functions for the ab initio description of scattering and reactions

Here, the no-core shell model (NCSM) is an ab initio method that solves the nuclear many-body problem by expanding the many-particle wave function into a (typically) harmonic oscillator basis and minimizing the energy to obtain the expansion coefficients. Extensions of the NCSM, such as its coupling with microscopic-cluster basis states, further allow for an ab initio treatment of light-ion nuclear reactions of interest for both astrophysics and nuclear technology applications. A downside of the method is the exponential scaling of the basis size with increasing number of nucleons and excitation quanta, which limits its applicability to mass A ≲ 16 nuclei, except for variants where the basis is further down-selected via some truncation scheme. We consider a basis selection method for the NCSM that was first introduced in the context of the large-scale shell model and captures the essential degrees of freedom of the nuclear wave function leading to a favorable complexity scaling for calculations and enabling ab initio reaction calculations in sd-shell nuclei. The particle configurations within the NCSM basis are ordered based on their contribution to the first moment of the Hamiltonian matrix that results from the projection onto the many-body basis. The truncation scheme then consists in retaining only the lowest-first-moment configurations, which typically contain only few many-body basis states (Slater determinants). As the energy threshold above which configurations are disregarded is increased, the size of the basis becomes an almost-continuous variable, allowing for tunable fidelity in the obtained wave functions. The resulting wave functions can then be used directly in ab initio reaction calculations. We present calculations for 7 Li and n + 12 C scattering using nucleon-nucleon interactions derived from chiral effective field theory and softened using the similarity renormalization group method. The obtained energy levels invariably demonstrate exponential convergence with the size of the basis, and we find improved convergence in scattering calculations. To demonstrate the possibilities enabled by the approach, we also present a first calculation for the scattering of neutrons from 24 Mg. The method presented in this work appears promising for future studies of nuclei with mass A > 16, opening multiple future research directions impacting both nuclear astrophysics and nuclear technology applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Detection of x ray sources in PROS

The problem of detecting discrete sources in x-ray images has much in common with the problem of automatic source detection at other wavelengths. In all cases, one searches for positive brightness enhancements exceeding a certain threshold, which appear consistent with what one expects for a point source, in the presence of a (possibly) spatially variable background. Multidimensional point spread functions (e.g., dependent on detector position and photon energy) are also common. At the same time, the problem in x-ray astronomy has some unique aspects. For example, for typical x-ray exposures in current or recent observatories, the number of available pixels far exceeds the number of actual x-ray events, so Poisson, rather than Gaussian statistics apply. Further, extended cosmic x-ray sources are common, and one often desires to detect point sources in the vicinity or even within bright, diffuse x-ray emission. Finally, support structures in x-ray detectors often cast sharp shadows in x-ray images making it necessary to detect sources in a region of rapidly varying exposure. We have developed a source detection package within the IRAF/PROS environment which attempts to deal with some of the problems of x-ray source detection. We have patterned our package after the successful Einstein Observatory x-ray source detection programs. However, we have attempted to improve the flexibility and accessibility of the functions and to provide a graphical front-end for the user. Our philosophy has been to use standard IRAF tasks whenever possible for image manipulation and to separate general functions from mission-specific ones. We will report on the current status of the package and discuss future developments, including simulation tasks, to allow the user to assess detection efficiency and source significance, tasks to determine source intensity, and alternative detection algorithms.

Deponte, J.↗

Sensitivity analysis of a model of CO2 exchange in tundra ecosystems by the adjoint method

A model of net primary production (NPP), decomposition, and nitrogen cycling in tundra ecosystems has been developed. The adjoint technique is used to study the sensitivity of the computed annual net CO2 flux to perturbation in initial conditions, climatic inputs, and model's main parameters describing current seasonal CO2 exchange in wet sedge tundra at Barrow, Alaska. The results show that net CO2 flux is most sensitive to parameters characterizing litter chemical composition and more sensitive to decomposition parameters than to NPP parameters. This underlines the fact that in nutrient-limited ecosystems, decomposition drives net CO2 exchange by controlling mineralization of main nutrients. The results also indicate that the short-term (1 year) response of wet sedge tundra to CO2-induced warming is a significant increase in CO2 emission, creating a positive feedback to atmosphreic CO2 accumulation. However, a cloudiness increase during the same year can severely alter this response and lead to either a slight decrease or a strong increase in emitted CO2, depending on its exact timing. These results demonstrate that the adjoint method is well suited to study systems encountering regime changes, as a single run of the adjoint model provides sensitivities of the net CO2 flux to perturbations in all parameters and variables at any time of the year. Moreover, it is shown that large errors due to the presence of thresholds can be avoided by first delimiting the range of applicability of the adjoint results.

Waelbroek, C.↗

Evaluation of Tablet-Based Methods for Assessment of Contrast Sensitivity

Some astronauts have suffered degradation of vision during long-duration space flight, suffering from a condition that has come to be known as Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS). While related morphological changes can be observed with imaging technologies such as optical coherence tomography (OCT), it may be useful to have a rapid method for functional vision assessment. In this paper, we compare three tablet-based methods for rapid assessment of contrast sensitivity. First, a relatively novel method developed expressly for touch screens, in which the subject ”swipes” a frequency/contrast sweep grating to indicate the boundary between visible and invisible patterns; second, a method-of-adjustment task in which the subject adjusts the contrast of a grating patch up and down to bracket the visual threshold; and third, a traditional temporal two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) task, in which the subject is presented with a near-threshold stimulus in one of two intervals, and must report the interval containing the stimulus. The swipe method shows variability comparable to the 2AFC method, and shows good agreement in estimates of the spatial frequency of peak sensitivity. The absolute sensitivity estimated with the swipe method is higher than that of the other methods, perhaps because subjects are biased to trace outside of the visible pattern region, or perhaps due to stimulus differences.

Mulligan, Jeffrey B.↗

Critical assessment of precracked specimen configuration and experimental test variables for stress corrosion testing of 7075-T6 aluminum alloy plate

A research program was conducted to critically assess the effects of precracked specimen configuration, stress intensity solutions, compliance relationships and other experimental test variables for stress corrosion testing of 7075-T6 aluminum alloy plate. Modified compact and double beam wedge-loaded specimens were tested and analyzed to determine the threshold stress intensity factor and stress corrosion crack growth rate. Stress intensity solutions and experimentally determined compliance relationships were developed and compared with other solutions available in the literature. Crack growth data suggests that more effective crack length measurement techniques are necessary to better characterize stress corrosion crack growth. Final load determined by specimen reloading and by compliance did not correlate well, and was considered a major source of interlaboratory variability. Test duration must be determined systematically, accounting for crack length measurement resolution, time for crack arrest, and experimental interferences. This work was conducted as part of a round robin program sponsored by ASTM committees G1.06 and E24.04 to develop a standard test method for stress corrosion testing using precracked specimens.

Domack, M. S.↗

Multiparameter vision testing apparatus

Compact vision testing apparatus is described for testing a large number of physiological characteristics of the eyes and visual system of a human subject. The head of the subject is inserted into a viewing port at one end of a light-tight housing containing various optical assemblies. Visual acuity and other refractive characteristics and ocular muscle balance characteristics of the eyes of the subject are tested by means of a retractable phoroptor assembly carried near the viewing port and a film cassette unit carried in the rearward portion of the housing (the latter selectively providing a variety of different visual targets which are viewed through the optical system of the phoroptor assembly). The visual dark adaptation characteristics and absolute brightness threshold of the subject are tested by means of a projector assembly which selectively projects one or both of a variable intensity fixation target and a variable intensity adaptation test field onto a viewing screen located near the top of the housing.

Hunt, S. R., Jr.↗