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At least 181 records · Page 10

Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

Strahan, Susan↗

Upper-atmosphere Aerosols: Properties and Natural Cycles

The middle atmosphere is rich in its variety of particulate matter, which ranges from meteorite debris, to sulfate aerosols, to polar stratospheric ice clouds. Volcanic eruptions strongly perturb the stratospheric sulfate (Junge) layer. High-altitude 'noctilucent' ice clouds condense at the summer mesopause. The properties of these particles, including their composition, sizes, and geographical distribution, are discussed, and their global effects, including chemical, radiative, and climatic roles, are reviewed. Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are composed of water and nitric acid in the form of micron-sized ice crystals. These particles catalyze reactions of chlorine compounds that 'activate' otherwise inert chlorine reservoirs, leading to severe ozone depletions in the southern polar stratosphere during austral spring. PSCs also modify the composition of the polar stratosphere through complex physiocochemical processes, including dehydration and denitrification, and the conversion of reactive nitrogen oxides into nitric acid. If water vapor and nitric acid concentrations are enhanced by high-altitude aircraft activity, the frequency, geographical range, and duration of PSCs might increase accordingly, thus enhancing the destruction of the ozone layer (which would be naturally limited in geographical extent by the same factors that confine the ozone hole to high latitudes in winter). The stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer reflects solar radiation and increases the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the surface and possibly altering the climate. Major volcanic eruptions, which increase the sulfate aerosol burden by a factor of 100 or more, may cause significant global climate anomalies. Sulfate aerosols might also be capable of activating stratospheric chlorine reservoirs on a global scale (unlike PCSs, which represent a localized polar winter phenomenon), although existing evidence suggests relatively minor perturbations in chlorine chemistry. Nevertheless, if atmospheric concentrations of chlorine (associated with anthropogenic use of chlorofluorocarbons) continue to increase by a factor of two or more in future decades, aircraft emissions of sulfur dioxide and water vapor may take on greater significance.

Turco, Richard P.↗

Silicate volcanism on Io

This paper is mainly concerned with the nature of volcanic eruptions on Io, taking into account questions regarding the presence of silicates or sulfur as principal component. Attention is given to the generation of silicate magma, the viscous dissipation in the melt zone, thermal anomalies at eruption sites, and Ionian volcanism. According to the information available about Io, it appears that its volcanism and hence its surface materials are dominantly silicic. Several percent of volatile materials such as sulfur, but also including sodium- and potassium-rich materials, may also be present. The volatile materials at the surface are continually vaporized and melted as a result of the high rates of silicate volcanism.

Carr, M. H.↗

MISR Observations of Etna Volcanic Plumes

In the last twelve years, Mt. Etna, located in eastern Sicily, has produced a great number of explosive eruptions. Volcanic plumes have risen to several km above sea level and created problems for aviation and the communities living near the volcano. A reduction of hazards may be accomplished using remote sensing techniques to evaluate important features of volcanic plumes. Since 2000, the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on board NASA s Terra spacecraft has been extensively used to study aerosol dispersal and to extract the three-dimensional structure of plumes coming from anthropogenic or natural sources, including volcanoes. In the present work, MISR data from several explosive events occurring at Etna are analyzed using a program named MINX (MISR INteractive eXplorer). MINX uses stereo matching techniques to evaluate the height of the volcanic aerosol with a precision of a few hundred meters, and extracts aerosol properties from the MISR Standard products. We analyzed twenty volcanic plumes produced during the 2000, 2001, 2002-03, 2006 and 2008 Etna eruptions, finding that volcanic aerosol dispersal and column height obtained by this analysis is in good agreement with ground-based observations. MISR aerosol type retrievals: (1) clearly distinguish volcanic plumes that are sulphate and/or water vapor dominated from ash-dominated ones; (2) detect even low concentrations of volcanic ash in the atmosphere; (3) demonstrate that sulphate and/or water vapor dominated plumes consist of smaller-sized particles compared to ash plumes. This work highlights the potential of MISR to detect important volcanic plume characteristics that can be used to constrain the eruption source parameters in volcanic ash dispersion models. Further, the possibility of discriminating sulphate and/or water vapor dominated plumes from ash-dominated ones is important to better understand the atmospheric impact of these plumes.

Scollo, S.↗

Tracking the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'Apai Aerosol Cloud in the Upper and Middle Stratosphere Using Space-Based Observations

On 15 January 2022, the submarine Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption lofted materials high into the upper stratosphere, reaching a record-breaking altitude of ~58 km, unprecedented in the satellite observations era. Within two weeks, the bulk of the injected material circulated the globe between 20 – 30 km altitude, as observed by satellite instruments. We estimate that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) is the largest since the Pinatubo eruption and is at least twice as great as the sAOD after the 2015 Calbubo eruption despite the similar SO 2 injection from that eruption. We use space-based observations to monitor the Hunga-Tonga volcanic plume evolution and transport at different altitudes as it circulates the globe. While the main aerosol layer remains trapped in the tropical pipe, small parts have already made it to both the northern and southern hemisphere poles by April, which is almost certain to influence this year's ozone hole.

Atmospheric science↗

Comparing Satellite Measurements of Volcanic SO2 Mass from OMI, OMPS and TROPOMI

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a major air pollutant that contributes to acid rain and aerosol formation (e.g., sulfates), adversely affects the environment and human health, and explosive volcanic SO2 emissions can impact climate. The majority of SO2 emissions are related to anthropogenic processes (e.g., fossil fuel burning, metal ore smelting operations), although natural processes such as volcanic eruptions and degassing also play an important role as anthropogenic SO2 emissions continue to decline. Generally, the most interest in volcanoes occurs during major eruptions. We will focus on comparing volcanic SO2 outgassing that occurs on an almost daily basis from lesser known volcanoes using satellite data. At NASA’s Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Home page (https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/), we have been posting daily SO2 maps from 40 volcanic and industrial regions around the world using measurements from three satellite instruments; the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Earth Observing System Aura satellite, the Ozone Monitoring and Profiler Suite (OMPS) onboard the NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the ESA/Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. These instruments in low Earth sun-synchronous polar orbits with 1:30-2:00 pm equator crossing local time provide daily SO2 maps at different spatial resolutions: 13 x 24 km2, 50 x 50 km2 and 5.5 x 3.5 km2 for OMI, OMPS and TROPOMI respectively. Data from OMI are available since October 2004 (partial coverage since 2008), from OMPS since 2012 and from TROPOMI since 2018. We will present comparative SO2 mass time-series (see Hunga-Tonga plot) and statistical analyses of recent eruptions that have data from all the instruments.

SO2↗

Toba volcano super eruption destroyed the ozone layer and caused a human population bottleneck

Volcanic eruptions trigger a broad spectrum of climatic responses. For example, the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 forced an El Niño and global cooling, and the Tambora eruption in 1815 caused the "Year Without a Summer." Especially grand eruptions such as Toba around 74,000 years ago can push the Earth's climate into a volcanic winter state, significantly lowering the surface temperature and precipitation globally. Here we present a new, previously overlooked element of the volcanic effects spectrum: the radiative mechanism of stratospheric ozone depletion. We found that the volcanic plume of Toba enhanced the UV optical depth and suppressed the primary formation of stratospheric ozone from O2 photolysis. Sulfate aerosols additionally reflect the photons needed to break the O2 bond (λ < 242 nm), otherwise controlled by ozone absorption and Rayleigh scattering alone during volcanically quiescent conditions. Our NASA GISS ModelE simulations of the Toba eruption reveal up to 50% global ozone loss due to the overall photochemistry perturbations of the sulfate aerosols. We also consider and quantify the radiative effects of SO2, which partially compensated for the ozone loss by inhibiting the photolytic O3 sink. Our analysis shows that the magnitude of the ozone loss and UV-induced health-hazardous effects after the Toba eruption are similar to those in the aftermath of a potential nuclear conflict. These findings suggest a “Toba ozone catastrophe" as a likely contributor to the historic population decline in this period, consistent with a genetic bottleneck in human evolution.

Toba volcano↗

The volcanic signal in Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model simulations

Transient calculations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model for the climatic signal of volcanic eruptions are analyzed. By compositing the output for two different volcanoes for scenario A and five different volcanoes for scenario B, the natural variability is suppressed and the volcanic signals are extracted. Significant global mean surface air temperature cooling and precipitation reduction are found for several years following the eruptions, with larger changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere. The global-average temperature response lasts for more than four years, but the precipitation response disappears after three years. The largest cooling in the model occurs in the NH summer of the year after spring eruptions. Significant zonal-average temperature reductions begin in the tropics immediately after the eruptions and extend to 45 deg S - 45 deg N in the year after the eruptions. In the second year, cooling is still seen from 30 deg S to 30 deg N. Because of the low variability in this model as compared to the real world, these signals may appear more significant here than they would by attempting to isolate them using real data. The results suggest that volcanoes can enhance the drought in the Sahel. No evidence was found that stratospheric aerosols from the low-atitude volcanic eruptions can trigger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in this model.

Robock, Alan↗

Reassessing Post-Eruption Precipitation Anomalies in the Context of Natural Variability

Several studies have reported anomalous precipitation in the years that follow large volcanic eruptions. Here we assess precipitation anomalies in post-eruption years according to their rarity in non-volcanic periods. Using global simulations of climate over the last millennium, we reevaluate the response of precipitation to volcanic aerosols in terms of novel metrics. In this approach, the magnitude of the precipitation response is contextualized through comparisons to internal variability. We also examine the connections between global and regional-scale precipitation anomalies. Finally, we assess to what extent a unique ‘fingerprint’ of eruptions can be seen in the observational precipitation record in spite of concurrent internal variability.

volcanic eruptions↗

Perturbations in Stratospheric Aerosol Evolution Due to the Water-Rich Plume of the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Eruption

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption injected a relatively small amount of SO2, but significantly more water into the stratosphere than previously seen in the modern satellite record. Here we show that the large amount of water resulted in large perturbations to stratospheric aerosol evolution. Our Community Earth System Model simulation reproduces the enhanced water vapor observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder at pressure levels between 10 and 50 hPa for three months. Compared with a simulation without a water injection, this additional source of water vapor increases OH, which halves the SO2 lifetime. Subsequent coagulation creates larger sulfate particles that double the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. A seasonal forecast of volcanic plume transport in the southern hemisphere indicates this eruption will greatly enhance the aerosol surface area and water vapor near the polar vortex until at least October 2022, suggesting that there will continue to be an impact of the HTHH eruption on the climate system.

Atmospheric science↗

The Staring OBservations of the Atmosphere (SOBA) Mission Concept

The Staring OBservations of the Atmosphere (SOBA) Mission is a concept that was developed and matured under the guidance of the NASA Ames Project EXellence (APEX) program. If funded, it will provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve ash transport forecasts and climate model simulations associated with volcanic eruptions. NASA and National science objectives require a better understanding of volcanic aerosol and trace gas emissions, transport, chemical transformation, and deposition, since they impact Earth's climate and atmospheric composition, human health, and aviation safety. Natural hazards such as the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland demonstrated how existing remote-sensing assets were inadequate for individual volcanic event monitoring. During this eruption, available instruments were unable to provide data necessary to initialize volcanic plume transport models so that they could accurately predict the quantity and location of volcanic ash. As a result, thousands of flights around the world were grounded unnecessarily, at great expense. Volcanoes can also play a large role in regulation of the Earth's climate, so SOBA observations will also be used to evaluate and improve volcanic aerosol and trace gas simulation in chemical transport models (CTMs) and global climate models (GCMs). We propose the development of an airborne remote sensing concept and field campaign that will respond to an eruption and provide near real time observations of a volcanic plume, specifically ash injection height, transport, aerosol microphysical physical properties, and the location and concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2) (sulfate (SO42-) aerosol precursor). This airborne system will utilize a depolarization sensitive, downward looking Light Detection And Ranging (lidar) instrument and an ultraviolet (UV) imaging spectrometer, and will provide data to be ingested by volcanic ash advisory models. Furthermore, the lessons learned in the development of this system could eventually guide regular deployment of similar systems by NASA or other government agencies.

Aerosols↗

Airborne lidar measurements of the Soufriere eruption of 17 April 1979

At the time of the Soufriere, St. Vincent, volcanic eruption of April 17, 1979, a NASA P-3 aircraft with an uplooking lidar (light detection and ranging) system onboard was airborne 130 kilometers east of the island. Lidar measurements of the fresh volcanic ash were made approximately 2 hours after the eruption, 120 kilometers to the northeast and east. On the evening of April 18, the airborne lidar, on a southerly flight track, detected significant amounts of stratospheric material in layers at 16, 17, 18, and 19.5 kilometers. These data, and measurements to the north on April 19, indicate that the volcanic plume penetrated the stratosphere to an altitude of about 20 kilometers and moved south during the first 48 hours after the eruption.

Fuller, W. H., Jr.↗

The Role of the SO2 Radiative Effect in Sustaining the Volcanic Winter and Soothing the Toba Impact on Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after super-eruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models, and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleo data. Here we present a re-evaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized super-eruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols, and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.

Sergey Osipov↗

Mount Agung eruption provides test of global climatic perturbation

The Mount Agung volcanic eruption in 1963 provides the best-documented global radiative perturbation to the earth's atmosphere currently available. Data on stratospheric aerosols produced by this eruption have been used as input to a model for the atmospheric thermal structure. The computed magnitude, sign, and phase lag of the temperature changes in both the stratosphere and the troposphere are in good agreement with observations, providing evidence that the climatic response to a global radiative perturbation is significant as well as support for the use of theoretical models to predict climatic effects.

Hansen, J. E.↗

Catastrophic loss of stratospheric ozone in dense volcanic clouds

Rapid, localized loss of ozone is predicted to occur in the midlatitude and tropical stratosphere in the presence of very large concentrations of sulfate aerosols. Volcanic eruptions can increase the effective surface area of sulfuric acid so that heterogeneous reactions involving ClONO2, and secondarily N2O5, are able to suppress NO(x) abundances by more than a factor of 10 relative to gas phase chemistry. When NO(x) levels fall below a threshold, e.g., 0.6 ppb at 24 km in mid-latitudes, the chlorine-catalyzed loss of O3 proceeds at rates comparable to those during the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, more than 50 ppb per day. If such losses occurred following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the most volcanically perturbed regions over the tropics and mid-latitudes, this model predicts that they are driven primarily by the suppression of NO(x) below these critical levels. The increase in stratospheric chlorine since El Chichon has made Mount Pinatubo more than twice as effective in causing rapid O3 loss.

Prather, Michael↗

A Comparison of Stratospheric Smoke Events Seen by SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III (2017-2021)

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) operated for over 20 years (1984-2005) and collected near global observations of aerosol extinction coefficient from the upper troposphere to about40 km. SAGE III has flown aboard the International Space Station (ISS) since 2017 and has collected comparable aerosol measurements during this period. The SAGE II record is dominated by recovery from El Chichón (1982) and the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 with a few smaller volcanic events that are detectable in the data set. In addition, a number of pyrocumulus events injected smoke into the lower stratosphere with magnitudes that are comparable to the smaller volcanic events. The shorter SAGE III/ISS record is qualitatively different than SAGE II’s with a number of small to moderate volcanic eruptions in both low and high latitudes (e.g., Ambae in 2018 and Raikoke in 2020) as well several smokeevents including the two largest events seen by SAGE-like instruments: the BC pyrocumulus event in 2017 and the Australian brush fires of 2020/2021. In this paper, I will review the detection and quantification of the magnitude of these smoke events with a particular focus on the differences between the two data periods.

SAGE↗