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176 records · Page 10

Preliminary Measurements on the BOLT Geometry in the Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel

Experiments were performed in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel on the BOundary-Layer Transition (BOLT) geometry. The goal of this campaign was to assess changes to the transition front by varying the freestream noise and the model surface quality. The model was printed of polycarbonate and is 30% scale of the flight geometry. It was tested under noisy and quiet conditions at different streamwise positions in the tunnel and was also tested before and after improvements were made to the model surface through sanding and gap reduction. Pitch and yaw angles were nominally zero. The model surface temperature was measured using infrared thermography and thermocouples as the unit Reynolds number was swept from 4.75 – 15.8 × 10 6 m −1 . Boundary-layer transition was observed near the midspan of the model for unit Reynolds numbers above 10×10 6 m −1 in quiet flow, while transition was already observed on the shoulders below 5×10 6 m −1 in noisy flow. The model surface enhancements improved the symmetry of the transition front for quiet flow but made only slight differences for noisy flow. In quiet flow, the impact of streamwise positioning on transition was more significant on the model shoulders compared to the central region. The difference in the shoulder heating was likely due to variation in noise radiated from the nozzle sidewalls. The total temperature and initial wall temperatures were near 300 K and 293 K, respectively, which generally resulted in negative convective heat-flux values into the model. Hot-wire anemometry was also utilized to characterize the freestream and to conduct a planar survey near the base of the model for the 7.92 × 10 6 m −1 quiet condition. The survey captured the thickening of the boundary layer at the centerline and the vortical nature of the flow outboard of it. Spectral analysis of the mass-flux fluctuations near the midspan demonstrates that the boundary layer is laminar and suggests that the thick boundary layer caused the relatively warm centerline observed in the infrared images.

boundary layer transition↗

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng. However, the combined forcing at the surface and in the atmosphere, including all species. if aerosols, and details of aerosol mixing, and impacts on the energy and water cycles in the monsoon land regions, are not well known.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Characterize Human Forward Contamination Project

Let's face it: wherever we go, we will inevitably carry along the little critters that live in and on us. Conventional wisdom has long held that it's unlikely those critters could survive the space environment, but in 2007 microscopic animals called Tardigrades survived exposure to space and in 2008 Cyanobacteria lived for 548 days outside the International Space Station (ISS). But what about the organisms we might reasonably expect a crewed spacecraft to leak or vent? Do we even know what they are? How long might our tiny hitch-hikers survive in close proximity to a warm spacecraft that periodically leaks/vents water or oxygen-and how might they mutate with long-duration exposure? Unlike the Mars rovers that we cleaned once and sent on their way, crew members will provide a constantly regenerating contaminant source. Are we prepared to certify that we can meet forward contamination protocols as we search for life at new destinations? This project has four technical objectives: 1. TEST: Develop a test plan to leverage existing equipment (i.e. ISS) to characterize the kinds of organisms we can reasonably expect pressurized, crewed volumes to vent or leak overboard; 2. ANALYSIS: Develop an analysis plan to study those organisms in relevant destination environments, including spacecraft-induced conditions; 3. MODEL: Develop a modeling plan to model organism transport mechanisms in relevant destination environments; 4. SHARE: Develop a plan to disseminate findings and integrate recommendations into exploration requirements & ops. In short, we propose a system engineering approach to roadmap the necessary experiments, analysis, and modeling up front--rather than try to knit together disparate chunks of data into a sensible conclusion after the fact.

Rucker, Michelle↗

Preliminary Measurements on the BOLT Geometry in the Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel

Experiments were performed in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel on the BOundary-Layer Transition (BOLT) geometry. The goal of this campaign was to assess changes to the transition front by varying the freestream noise and the model surface quality. The model was printed of polycarbonate and is 30% scale of the flight geometry. It was tested under noisy and quiet conditions at different streamwise positions in the tunnel and was also tested before and after improvements were made to the model surface through sanding and gap reduction. Pitch and yaw angles were nominally zero. The model surface temperature was measured using infrared thermography and thermocouples as the unit Reynolds number was swept from 4.75 -- 15.8 x 10^6 m^{-1}. Boundary-layer transition was observed near the midspan of the model for unit Reynolds numbers above 10 x 10^6 m^{-1} in quiet flow, while transition was already observed on the shoulders below 5 x 10^6 m^{-1} in noisy flow. The model surface enhancements improved the symmetry of the transition front for quiet flow but made only slight differences for noisy flow. In quiet flow, the impact of streamwise positioning on transition was more significant on the model shoulders compared to the central region. The difference in the shoulder heating was likely due to variation in noise radiated from the nozzle sidewalls. The total temperature and initial wall temperatures were near 300 K and 293 K, respectively, which generally resulted in negative convective heat-flux values into the model. Hot-wire anemometry was also utilized to characterize the freestream and to conduct a planar survey near the base of the model for the 7.92 x 10^6 m^{-1} quiet condition. The survey captured the thickening of the boundary layer at the centerline and the vortical nature of the flow outboard of it. Spectral analysis of the mass-flux fluctuations near the midspan demonstrates that the boundary layer is laminar and suggests that the thick boundary layer caused the relatively warm centerline observed in the infrared images.

boundary layer transition↗

Multiphysics Modeling of Microreactors with NEAMS codes, and Validation Based on KRUSTY Reactivity Insertion

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team continues to assess code usability and functionality for microreactor design and safety analyses, while demonstrating that NEAMS tools capture both steady-state and transient behavior across distinct microreactor concepts. In FY2025, the team advanced full-core, high-fidelity, multiphysics models that solve more complex problems and strengthen verification/validation for several microreactor systems: heat-pipe microreactor (HPMR), gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR), and the KRUSTY experiment. These models employ the MOOSE MultiApp/Transfers architecture with Griffin for neutronics, BISON for heat conduction/thermomechanics, Sockeye for heat pipes, SAM/THM for coolant channels and loops, and SWIFT for hydride behavior, with meshes generated via the MOOSE Reactor Module. The graphite models available in the Grizzly code were also investigated for future analyses. For the HPMR, a Na-HPMR variant was constructed to align with recently validated heat-pipe experiments and Sockeye’s LCVF capability, enabling mechanistic heat-pipe transients and startup modeling. The Na-HPMR will serve as the primary model for HPMR investigations in upcoming tasks. The load-following and single heat-pipe failure scenarios (Griffin/BISON/Sockeye), which were previously modeled for the K-HPMR, were replicated for the Na-HPMR, showing strong negative temperature feedback and highly localized thermal effects, respectively, while the startup case captured vapor-front progression and heat-removal activation. Solid mechanics was added to the previously built K-HPMR full-core model in BISON, showing minimal impact on steady-state reactivity yet enabling stress-field predictions that prepare the path for full-core TRISO performance analyses. For the GCMR, automated steady-state and four transient scenarios were executed using Griffin/BISON/SAM/SWIFT. Results confirm robust inherent safety: power collapses promptly in loss-of-cooling events, the inlet-temperature drop settles to a new equilibrium, and a single-channel blockage yields only a ~30 K local fuel-temperature rise with <0.4% power decrease. SWIFT-predicted hydrogen redistribution affects reactivity during both steady-state and transient conditions, underscoring its importance. A Brayton-cycle balance of plant (BOP) model in SAM/THM demonstrated stable startup behavior, and xenon-driven reactivity during load following was analyzed. To improve TRISO-compact temperature fidelity, a fast multiscale Heat Source Decomposition (HSD) treatment was implemented. Against heterogeneous benchmarks, HSD reduces underprediction of kernel temperatures and lowers predicted peak powers in reactivity-insertion transients compared to previous homogenized models. KRUSTY warm-critical validation progressed from FY2024 baselines: the 15Ȼ insertion shows excellent agreement in peak power (~2% high) and temperature trends, and the 30Ȼ case was automated via a feedback controller that maintained power near 3 kW for ~150 s with close agreement to data. The successful modeling of the warm critical tests has laid a strong foundation for simulating more complex nuclear system tests in the years ahead. Throughout FY2025, developer feedback was provided (e.g., MOOSE batch mesh generation, distributed pre-split meshes, Griffin sweeper on displaced meshes), several new models were contributed to the Virtual Test Bed, and an OECD-NEA WPRS multiphysics benchmark based on the HPMR was initiated to enable broader cross-comparison and best-practice development with the nuclear community at large.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Model-Based Energy and Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture Using ePTFE-Based Laminate-Structured Gas–Solid Contactors

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will play a significant role in limiting global warming if implemented on a large scale. Direct air capture (DAC) is a scalable approach for removing atmospheric carbon, yet the true scope of its scalability remains unclear due to the early stage of technology development and high first plant costs. This study provides groundwork for understanding the technoeconomic trade-offs in developing DAC systems using laminate-structured gas–solid contactors, encompassing the analysis of both contactor and process design spaces. The robust mass transfer and process models outlined in this study provide tools for evaluating DAC processes and designing DAC plants based on cost and energy analysis. First, the key contactor geometrical parameters are identified to understand the CO 2 productivity–energy demand trade-offs, where geometries yielding higher mass transfer rates can achieve higher CO 2 productivities at the expense of energy consumption by fans and steam use. Next, a detailed process parametric study is conducted for DAC systems coupled with steam-assisted temperature-vacuum swing adsorption (S-TVSA) to visualize the trade-offs in the multidimensional design space. The main cost driver dramatically changes over different process conditions, but the operating cost prevailed on the Pareto front, with potential to operate as low as 150 $/tonne-CO 2 (within the cost range of 148–504 $/tonne-CO 2 in this study where the DAC system is coupled with industrial facilities for steam production).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The role of igneous sills in shaping the Martian uplands

Relations among geologic units and landforms suggest that igneous sills lie beneath much of the intercrater and intracrater terrain of the Martian uplands. The igneous rocks crop out along the upland-lowland front and in crater floors and other depressions that are low enough to intersect the sill's intrusion horizons. It is suggested that heat from the cooling sills melted some of the ice contained in overlying fragmental deposits, creating valley networks by subsurface flow of the meltwater. Terrains with undulatory, smooth surfaces and softened traces of valleys were created by more direct contact with the sills. Widespread subsidence following emplacement of the sills deformed both them and the nonvolcanic deposits that overlie them, accounting for the many structures that continue from ridged plains into the hilly uplands. Crater counts show that the deposit that became valleyed, softened, and ridged probably began to form (and to acquire interstitial ice) during or shortly after the Middle Noachian Epoch, and continued to form as late as the Early Hesperian Epoch. The upper layers of this deposit, many of the visible valleys, and the ridged plains and postulated sills all have similar Early Hesperian ages. Continued formation of valleys is indicated by their incision of fresh-appearing crater ejecta. The dependence of valley formation on internal processes implies that Mars did not necessarily have a dense early atmosphere or warm climate.

Wilhelms, D. E.↗

Characterize Human Forward Contamination Project

Let's face it: wherever we go, we will inevitably carry along the little critters that live in and on us. Conventional wisdom has long held that it's unlikely those critters could survive the space environment, but in 2007 microscopic animals called Tardigrades survived exposure to space and in 2008 Cyanobacteria lived for 548 days outside the International Space Station (ISS). But what about the organisms we might reasonably expect a crewed spacecraft to leak or vent? Do we even know what they are? How long might our tiny hitch-hikers survive in close proximity to a warm spacecraft that periodically leaks/vents water or oxygen-and how might they mutate with long-duration exposure? Unlike the Mars rovers that we cleaned once and sent on their way, crew members will provide a constantly regenerating contaminant source. Are we prepared to certify that we can meet forward contamination protocols as we search for life at new destinations? This project has four technical objectives: 1. TEST: Develop a test plan to leverage existing equipment (i.e. ISS) to characterize the kinds of organisms we can reasonably expect pressurized, crewed volumes to vent or leak overboard; as part of testing, we'll need to develop an Extravehicular Activity (EVA)-compatible tool that can withstand the pressure and temperature extremes of space, as well as collect, separate, and store multiple samples; 2. ANALYSIS: Develop an analysis plan to study those organisms in relevant destination environments, including spacecraft-induced conditions; 3. MODEL: Develop a modeling plan to model organism transport mechanisms in relevant destination environments; 4. SHARE: Develop a plan to disseminate findings and integrate recommendations into exploration requirements & ops. In short, we propose a system engineering approach to roadmap the necessary experiments, analysis, and modeling up front--rather than try to knit together disparate chunks of data into a sensible conclusion after the fact.

Rucker, Michelle↗

The Coupled Roles of Dust and Clouds in the Mars Climate

During the period October 1997 to September 1999 we obtained and analyzed over 100 millimeter-wave observations of Mars atmospheric CO line absorption for atmospheric temperature profiles. These measurements extend through one full Mars year (solar longitudes L(sub S) of 190 deg in 1997 to 180 deg in 1999) and coincide with atmospheric temperature profile and dust column measurements front the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) experiment on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. A comparison of Mars atmospheric temperatures retrieved by these distinct methods provides the first opportunity to place the long-term (1982-1999) millimeter retrievals of Mars atmospheric temperatures within the context of contemporaneous, spatially mapped spacecraft, observations. Profile comparisons of 0-30 km altitude atmospheric temperatures retrieved with the two techniques agree typically to within the 5 K calibration accuracy of the millimeter observations. At the 0.5 mbar pressure level (approximately 25 km altitude) the 30N/30S average for TES infrared temperatures and the disk-averaged millimeter temperatures are also well correlated in their seasonal and dust-storm-related variations over the 1997-1999 period. This period includes the Noachis Terra regional dust storm, which led to very abrupt heating (approximately 15 K at 0.5 mbar) of the global Mars atmosphere at L(sub S)=224 deg in 1997 [Christensen et al., 1998; Conrath et al., this issue; Smith et al., this issue]. Much colder (10-20 K) global atmospheric temperatures were observed during the 1997 versus 1977 perihelion periods (L(sub S)=200 deg-330 deg), consistent with the much (2 to 8 times) lower global dust loading of the atmosphere during the 1997 perihelion dust storm season versus the Viking period of the 1977a,b storms. The 1998-1999 Mars atmosphere revealed by both the millimeter and TES observations is also 10-15 K colder than presented by the Viking climatology during the aphelion season (L(sub S)=0 deg-180 deg, northern spring/summer) of Mars. We reassess the observational basis of the Viking dusty-warm climatology for this season to conclude that the global aphelion atmosphere of Mars is colder, less dusty, and cloudier than indicated by the established Viking climatology even for the Viking period. We also conclude that Mars atmospheric temperatures exhibit their most significant interannual variations during the perihelion dust storm season (10-20 K for L(sub S)=200 deg-340 deg) and during the post-aphelion northern summer season (5-10 K for L(sub S)=100 deg-200 deg).

Clancy, R. Todd↗

Process design of the piperazine advanced stripper for a 460 MW NGCC

The Texas Carbon Management Program is conducting a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) for Piperazine with the Advanced Stripper™ (PZAS™) at a natural gas combined cycle power plant in west Texas. Here, this paper presents the design of the advanced stripper system with an emphasis on the selection of packing type, packing height, column diameter, and heat exchanger size, demonstrates the effect of ambient temperature swing on the regeneration energy requirement, and investigates two alternate process configurations that provide better energy performance than PZAS™. The design uses 2 stripper trains, and each train uses two cold cross exchangers, one hot cross exchanger, a stripper column, a CO 2 exchanger, and a condenser. Each column consists of two sections of random packing with RSR 2 packing at the top and RSR 3 packing at the bottom, with a total packed height of 7.5 m. The cold exchanger was designed with an NTU of 6, the hot exchanger with an NTU of 2, and the CO 2 exchanger with an NTU of 5. At 0.4 rich loading and 0.2 lean loading, this design resulted in a heat duty of 2.85 GJ/tonne CO 2 . The heat duty can vary up to 3.1 GJ/tonne CO 2 due to lower rich loading at higher summer temperature, but the absolute steam requirement is 8–15% lower in the summer. An alternate design, PZAS with hot rich bypass, is proposed, which can reduce the equivalent work of stripping by 1.5–3.5% compared to PZAS at low heat exchanger size, due to a reduction in stripper driving force. Using a hot rich bypass increases the vapor fraction of the total rich bypass stream from 0.3 to 1 mol% compared to using the warm rich bypass, which also contributes to a reduction in lost work in the column. PZAS with hot rich bypass outperforms PZAS in energy requirement below a packing height of 15 m, but fails to do so above 15 m of packing due to a column pinch that results in little change in LMTD of the column. PZAS with hot rich bypass has the potential to minimize capital cost in addition to reducing energy requirement as it requires less packing to strip CO 2 than PZAS and requires only one cross exchanger with 8 heat transfer units.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Runtime and Pressurization Analyses of Propellant Tanks

Multi-element unstructured CFD has been utilized at NASA SSC to carry out analyses of propellant tank systems in different modes of operation. The three regimes of interest at SSC include (a) tank chill down (b) tank pressurization and (c) runtime propellant draw-down and purge. While tank chill down is an important event that is best addressed with long time-scale heat transfer calculations, CFD can play a critical role in the tank pressurization and runtime modes of operation. In these situations, problems with contamination of the propellant by inclusion of the pressurant gas from the ullage causes a deterioration of the quality of the propellant delivered to the test article. CFD can be used to help quantify the mixing and propellant degradation. During tank pressurization under some circumstances, rapid mixing of relatively warm pressurant gas with cryogenic propellant can lead to rapid densification of the gas and loss of pressure in the tank. This phenomenon can cause serious problems during testing because of the resulting decrease in propellant flow rate. With proper physical models implemented, CFD can model the coupling between the propellant and pressurant including heat transfer and phase change effects and accurately capture the complex physics in the evolving flowfields. This holds the promise of allowing the specification of operational conditions and procedures that could minimize the undesirable mixing and heat transfer inherent in propellant tank operation. It should be noted that traditional CFD modeling is inadequate for such simulations because the fluids in the tank are in a range of different sub-critical and supercritical states and elaborate phase change and mixing rules have to be developed to accurately model the interaction between the ullage gas and the propellant. We show a typical run-time simulation of a spherical propellant tank, containing RP-1 in this case, being pressurized with room-temperature nitrogen at 540 R. Nitrogen, shown in blue on the right-hand side of the figures, enters the tank from the diffuser at the top of the figures and impinges on the RP-1, shown in red, while the propellant is being continuously drained at the rate of 1050 lbs/sec through a pipe at the bottom of the tank. The sequence of frames in Figure 1 shows the resultant velocity fields and mixing between nitrogen and RP-1 in a cross-section of the tank at different times. A vortex is seen to form in the incoming nitrogen stream that tends to entrain propellant, mixing it with the pressurant gas. The RP-1 mass fraction contours in Figure 1 are also indicative of the level of mixing and contamination of the propellant. The simulation is used to track the propagation of the pure propellant front as it is drawn toward the exit with the evolution of the mixing processes in the tank. The CFD simulation modeled a total of 10 seconds of run time. As is seen from Figure 1d, after 5.65 seconds the propellant front is nearing the drain pipe, especially near the center of the tank. Behind this pure propellant front is a mixed fluid of compromised quality that would require the test to end when it reaches the exit pipe. Such unsteady simulations provide an estimate of the time that a high-quality propellant supply to the test article can be guaranteed at the modeled mass flow rate. In the final paper, we will discuss simulations of the LOX and propellant tanks at NASA SSC being pressurized by an inert ullage. Detailed comparisons will be made between the CFD simulations and lower order models as well as with test data. Conditions leading to cryo collapse in the tank will also be identified.

Field, Robert E.↗

A Scalable Method for Decarbonizing Modular Building Solutions: Preprint

The decarbonization movement emphasizes the shift in focus from energy efficiency to directly reducing global-warming impact. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder with an all-electric portfolio, worked with NREL on a roadmap to decarbonize its high-performance building product at a relative cost advantage by utilizing the learning curves of mass production. Previous decarbonization literature focused on either i) lifecycle assessments, or ii) efficiency measures. These decarbonization exercises were bespoke to individual building projects and did not consider positive feedback loops of builder experience or process repetition. Vertically integrated, prefab builders possess the unique ability to leverage learning and repetition to decarbonize their design-build-operate process. This collaboration between Blokable and NREL resulted in a decarbonization strategy utilizing the company's scaling and production efficiencies, on-site renewable energy and storage, and the projected evolution of building components over time based on trends and emerging legislation. The method developed here encompasses a growing business model, lifecycle carbon assessment, and projected changes in product and grid emissions over time due to existing trends and emerging legislation. This methodology incorporates learning-curve efficiencies gleaned from scaled manufacturing, as well as open-source tools integration for energy and carbon accounting. The output projects and compares cost and carbon savings per modular unit as production increases to 10,000 dwelling units annually over 15 years. The resulting roadmap illustrates a path to roughly 60% carbon savings and beyond-net-zero-energy performance at no incremental cost by 2030. The methodology can be mapped to other integrated or productized builders for methodical decarbonization.

affordable housing↗

A Scalable Method for Decarbonizing Modular Building Solutions

The decarbonization movement emphasizes the shift in focus from energy efficiency to directly reducing global-warming impact. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder with an all-electric portfolio, worked with NREL on a roadmap to decarbonize its high-performance building product at a relative cost advantage by utilizing the learning curves of mass production. Previous decarbonization literature focused on either i) lifecycle assessments, or ii) efficiency measures. These decarbonization exercises were bespoke to individual building projects and did not consider positive feedback loops of builder experience or process repetition. Vertically integrated, prefab builders possess the unique ability to leverage learning and repetition to decarbonize their design-build-operate process. This collaboration between Blokable and NREL resulted in a decarbonization strategy utilizing the company's scaling and production efficiencies, on-site renewable energy and storage, and the projected evolution of building components over time based on trends and emerging legislation. The method developed here encompasses a growing business model, lifecycle carbon assessment, and projected changes in product and grid emissions over time due to existing trends and emerging legislation. This methodology incorporates learning-curve efficiencies gleaned from scaled manufacturing, as well as open-source tools integration for energy and carbon accounting. The output projects and compares cost and carbon savings per modular unit as production increases to 10,000 dwelling units annually over 15 years. The resulting roadmap illustrates a path to roughly 60% carbon savings and beyond-net-zero-energy performance at no incremental cost by 2030. The methodology can be mapped to other integrated or productized builders for methodical decarbonization.

affordable housing↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗