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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Iodine Co-Precipitation with Calcium Carbonate in the Presence of Silica Ions - 20360

Historical releases of I-129 to the subsurface at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site have resulted in large dilute plumes that cover an area of over 50 km{sup 2}. The most concentrated I-129 plume is associated with the 200 West Area in the 200-UP-1 operable unit of the Hanford Central Plateau, where peak concentrations have been measured up to 30 times the drinking water standard of 1 pCi/L. The mobility of iodine depends on many factors, including chemical speciation, pH, redox conditions, as well as the presence of organic matter, calcium carbonate minerals and microbial activities. Speciation measurements estimate that the majority of the iodine (∼76%) in Hanford groundwater exists as iodate. Information on processes that affect iodate mobility in the Hanford subsurface support evaluation of environmental management options for the I-129 plumes. Iodate can be incorporated into calcium carbonate, which is a potential mechanism of naturally attenuating radioiodine in groundwater. However, the silica content in porewater may impact the contaminant-calcium carbonate incorporation process. Silica is one of the most abundant elements in nature and can have an impact on chemical weathering of alkaline-earth carbonates in the environment. Hence, this research aims to advances knowledge of the iodine co-precipitation process with calcium carbonate in the presence of silica. This information supports the technical basis evaluation of natural attenuation for I-129. Samples for these studies were prepared using calcium carbonate-forming solutions that included certified grade sodium meta-silicate nonahydrate (Na{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}), calcium chloride dehydrate (CaCl{sub 2}.2H{sub 2}O), sodium carbonate (NaCO{sub 2}), and sodium hydroxide (NaOH) solutions for pH adjustments. Triplicate samples were prepared with silica concentrations in the solution of 0 mM, 0.5 mM and 20 mM, mixed with an iodate standard (1000 ppm of IO{sub 3}{sup -} in H{sub 2}O) and sampled over a one-week period. Preliminary data analyses suggest that less iodine remains in solution in the presence of silica (average remaining aqueous fraction 0.23±0.03 at 20 mM of Si) relative to samples without silica (0.52±0.06); an indication that more iodine has been sorbed or incorporated into precipitates. However, the mechanisms for this behavior are still under investigation and need to be interpreted relative to pore water compositions that are representative of Hanford site-specific conditions. Scanning electron microscope equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) analyses were performed to observe the solid phase morphology in these experiments and showed rhombohedral calcite crystals covered with amorphous Si floccules. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overcoming Resilience Challenges on the Outer Banks of North Carolina

In 2021, the Town of Nags Head, located in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, was among the first cohort of coastal and island communities to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP), which offers technical assistance and cash awards to competitively selected coastal, remote, and island communities seeking to transform their energy systems and increase their energy resilience. As a barrier island separated from mainland North Carolina, Nags Head experiences impacts from extreme weather events, including power outages, especially during hurricane season. To address challenges, the Nags Head ETIPP team sought to improve the town's disaster resilience by ensuring that critical facilities can remain powered during and after extreme events. With support from experts at Sandia National Laboratories, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Coastal Studies Institute, the community team identified the following goals for its participation in ETIPP: 1. Identify and prioritize critical facilities that, when powered during disruptions, support the town's resilience. 2. Analyze the potential for on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage systems at 2-4 prioritized critical facilities owned and/or operated by the town. 3. Analyze the potential for interconnecting solar PV and storage systems at a cluster of public and privately owned facilities into a resilient microgrid. 4. Explore finance options and utility interconnection requirements and compensation mechanisms. 5. Summarize outcomes and next steps for town leadership.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2022

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Euler–Lagrange stochastic modeling of droplet breakup and impact in supersonic flight

Blunt bodied aircraft traveling supersonically in weather environments may be damaged by impacts with water droplets and other airborne particles, such as snow and ice. Prior to an impact, these particles will encounter a bow shock that causes a discontinuity in their relative velocity with the gas phase, which can lead droplets to breakup into smaller droplets. These smaller droplets are more easily diverted from colliding with the blunt body due to their significantly reduced inertia relative to the initial rain droplets. One-way coupled Euler–Lagrange simulations are used to study the dynamics of droplets approaching a blunt body in steady two dimensional and axi-symmetric flow fields using a stochastic version of the Taylor analogy breakup model for the breakup dynamics. Ultimately, the dominant mechanism determining engineering quantities of interest was observed to be a competition between breakup time and the time available for a droplet to reach the body after encountering the bow shock. At Mach numbers 2, 3, and 6, the competition between these mechanisms was the dominant factor determining the momentum transfer to the blunt body via droplet collisions, which can be well characterized by a scaling relation.

Briney, Sam (ORCID:0000000179061081)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Assessment Framework For Electric Distribution Systems Performance Under Extreme Conditions

The devastating impact of extreme weather-related events is increasingly evident on power grids, especially on distribution grids. The severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing a suitable resilience assessment framework to capture the system performance and 2) assessing relevant mitigative strategies to lessen the impact of such events. This paper proposes a framework to identify grid vulnerabilities using the energy-at-risk concept to select, disconnect and isolate grid portions due to a resilience event. The proposed framework mainly consists of two steps; i) processing the utility's available infrastructure, i.e., a network model, possible switching combinations, and outage information for those combinations, as a graph-based database, and ii) implementing a novel optimal switching algorithm leveraging database and grid simulated metrics. These switching actions are generated to implement load curtailment in a rolling manner during anticipated grid scarcity conditions. In this study, a test case is created using two taxonomy feeders and is simulated against an extreme temperature event, e.g., a long, relatively cold, and prolonged freeze peak, thereby creating stress on the grid. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework allows utilities to predict the energy-at-risk during such resilience events and design suitable outage management strategies.

Poudel, Shiva↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Regional WRF‐Chem Air Quality and Weather Simulations to Biomass‐Burning Emission Data Sets: A Case Study of the Impact of Canadian Wildfire on the US°

This study focuses on the period from June 26 to 29, 2023, when record‐breaking Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality in the Midwest United States. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) and four biomass‐burning data sets (Fire Inventory from NCAR version 1, Fire Inventory from NCAR version 2.5, Quick Fire Emissions Data set [QFED], and Regional ABI‐VIIRS Emission), we analyzed aerosol transport from Canada to the US and assessed the model's accuracy in predicting PM 2.5 , O 3 , CO and aerosol weather feedback. Model simulations were compared with ground‐based and remote sensing observations as well as field measurements from the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. Our findings show that the movement of a low‐pressure system from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic, combined with the high‐pressure system over the Atlantic, caused the transport of aerosols from Canadian wildfires to the US. Results show WRF‐Chem significantly underestimated key atmospheric components: aerosol optical depth (AOD) by over 50%, PM 2.5 by 65%–90% and peak O 3 concentrations by 50%–55% across four biomass burning data sets. Additionally, CO and NO 2 concentrations were underpredicted. The substantial underestimation of PM 2.5 led to an overestimation of temperature by up to 3.6 °C primarily due to excessive downward shortwave radiation, which resulted from the underestimation of direct aerosol effects and an increase in sensible heat flux. Among the biomass‐burning data sets, QFED produced the most accurate AOD and PM 2.5 predictions due to improved wildfire emission estimates, leading to a 1.0 to 1.5 °C reduction in temperature overestimation during the daytime. These findings underscore the need for improving wildfire emission estimates for trace gases and aerosols to enhance air quality and weather feedback predictions.

WRF-chem model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]

The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Baltimore Community Weather Station Network: Filling the Urban Measurement Desert

Quantification and understanding of how heat, rainfall, and air quality vary within cities are needed to identify the area with the worst conditions, develop solutions to extreme weather, and assess the impact of proposed policies. However, neighborhood-level variability is not well quantified because there are few environmental measurement stations within cities. In Baltimore City, a community-based network of weather stations to address this issue has been developed through a partnership between universities, state agencies, and Baltimore residents. The weather stations are hosted by community partners, and the data collected are enabling the mapping of urban weather across the city and the testing of models and proposed mitigation strategies. In addition, the network provides direct community involvement, with resulting benefits of increased community engagement, education, and empowerment. Researchers have an opportunity to democratize the scientific process and ensure that local knowledge and lived experiences of city residents inform future decision-making. The approach could be used as a model for other cities that apply similar monitoring instruments for other environmental exposures.

community↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for "Depth of nutrient uptake by deep-rooted plants is regulated by water availability"

The data set consists of strontium (Sr) isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr), water isotopes, soil cation concentrations, soil water potential sensor data, and results of 87Sr/86Sr mixing model. The plant canopy size files include the dataset of canopy dimension of sagebrush, lupine, and sunflower. The soil and plant ICPMS (Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry) data file includes both of 87Sr/86Sr, and cation concentration dataset from soil exchangeable pool, apatite pool, silicate extract, atmospheric rain deposition, and plant leaf and stem tissues. The plant dendrochronology file includes the dendrochronogical ring width of several sagebrush, and dendrochemical sample data includes the 87Sr/86Sr for each separated growth ring. The modeling result gives the proportion of nutrient sources of each plants (based on their 87Sr/86Sr in leaf tissues and growth rings) from atmospheric deposition and mineral weathering. Soil water potential data includes continuous collection of soil water potential dataset at 2 depths (30 cm and 60 cm, from Nov 24 - Jun 25) of the sampling site. All the samples were collected from 2 sampling campaign June and July 2023, and rain water is a separate sampling from Aug - Sept 2023, at north-facing hillslope near pumphouse site. The data showed that the depth of cation nutrient acquisition is thus tightly coupled with, and likely determined by, water availability in soil, saprolite and bedrock. The enhanced uptake of cations and water from regions of mineral weathering could confer plant and ecosystem resilience during low water years and may impact the rate of bedrock weathering and watershed chemistry during drought. This dataset includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type; a location metadata file (locations.csv); and a samples metadata file (samples.csv). All files are provided as comma-separated values (CSV) files (.csv). This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mineralogical, magnetic and geochemical data constrain the pathways and extent of weathering of mineralized sedimentary rocks

The oxidative weathering of sulfidic rock can profoundly impact watersheds through the resulting export of acidity and metals. Weathering leaves a record of mineral transformation, particularly involving minor redox-sensitive phases, that can inform the development of conceptual and quantitative models. In sulfidic sedimentary rocks, however, variations in depositional history, diagenesis and mineralization can change or overprint the distributions of these trace minerals, complicating the interpretation of weathering signatures. Here we show that a combination of bulk mineralogical and geochemical techniques, micrometer-resolution X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis and rock magnetic measurements, applied to drill core samples and single weathered fractures, can provide data that enable the development of a geochemically consistent weathering model. This work focused on one watershed in the Upper Colorado River Basin sitting within the Mesaverde Formation, a sedimentary sandstone bedrock with disseminated sulfide minerals, including pyrite and sphalerite, that were introduced during diagenesis and subsequent magmatic-hydrothermal mineralization. Combined analytical methods revealed the pathways of iron (Fe), carbonate and silicate mineral weathering and showed how pH controls element retention or release from the actively weathering fractured sandstone. Drill core logging, whole rock X-ray diffraction, and geochemical measurements document the progression from unweathered rock at depth to weathered rock at the surface. X-ray microprobe analyses of a 1-cm size weathering profile along a fracture surface are consistent with the mobilization of Fe(II) and Fe(III) into acidic pore water from the dissolution of primary pyrite, Fe-sphalerite, chlorite, and minor siderite and pyrrhotite. These reactions are followed by the precipitation of secondary minerals such as of goethite and jarosite, a Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide and hydrous Fe(III) sulfate, respectively. Microscale analyses also helped explain the weathering reactions responsible for the mineralogical transformations observed in the top and most weathered section of the drill core. For example, dissolution of feldspar and chlorite neutralizes the acidity generated by Fe and sulfide mineral oxidation, oversaturating the solution in both Fe-oxides. The combination of X-ray spectromicroscopy and magnetic measurements show that the Fe(III) product is goethite, mainly present either as a coating on fracture surfaces in the actively weathering region of the core or more homogeneously contained within the unconsolidated regolith at the top of the core. Low-temperature magnetic data reveal the presence of ferromagnetic Fe-sulfide pyrrhotite that, although it occurs at trace concentrations, could provide a qualitative proxy for unweathered sulfide minerals because the loss of pyrrhotite is associated with the onset of oxidative weathering. Pyrrhotite loss and goethite formation are detectable through room-temperature magnetic coercivity changes, suggesting that rock magnetic measurements can determine weathering intensity in rock samples at many scales. In conclusion, this work contributes evidence that the weathering of sulfidic sedimentary rocks follows a geochemical pattern in which the abundance of sulfide minerals controls the generation of acidity and dissolved elements, and the pH-dependent mobility of these elements controls their export to the ground- and surface-water.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Impact of Power Outages on Occupancy Patterns During the 2021 Texas Power Crisis

Large-scale power outages, such as those caused by extreme weather events, have a big impact on human behavior. A short power outage is merely a nuisance for most, and may not change people's locations. An outage that lasts for a few hours can result in spoiled food and medical supplies, and people will have to restock spoiled items. Long outages result in temperatures outside tolerable levels in homes, and may prompt people to acquire supplies, such as generators and gas, or change location. The long outages during Winter Storm Uri in Texas resulted in millions of dollars in property damage due to freezing pipes. This level of damage is expected to result in a sharp increase in supply runs and contractor activity. In this paper, we present a tool to explore differences in visiting patterns before, during, and after power outages. It allows to compare different points of interest like medical facilities, grocery stores, hardware stores, and other types of businesses.

big data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Building Decarbonization Trends and Strategies

It is evident from extreme weather patterns that climate change is impacting the whole world. The consequences in the form of unpredicted severe weather conditions, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires have been disrupting national economies and affecting lives across the globe. As the global economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the temporary drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly caused due to travel bans and economic slowdowns is no longer the case and, moving forward, controlling the increase in GHG emissions has emerged as a global challenge. The impact of climate change has enabled an acknowledgement of the challenge and this coincided with the rapid development of clean energy technologies for buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors, while ensuring a significant reduction in costs for their wide implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗